20231225_湘财证券_IVD&医疗服务行业2024年度策略：价值回归景气先行_36页.pdf

价 值回归，景气 先行 相关研究：1.2023.06.19 行业评级：增持%1 3 12-6 2-10-11-9-25 300 分析 师：蒋栋 证书 编号：S0500521050001 Tel：(8621)50295368 Email：地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号中国人寿金融中心10楼 2023 CDMO CXO CDMO biotech ADC CXO 2023 6%2024 GDP IVD 2023 2024 PCR IVD ICL 2024 ICL CXO biotech PCR 证券研 究报告 2023 年 12 月25 日 湘财 证券研究 所 行业 研究 IVD&医疗 服务 行业 2024 年度 策略 2 2024 IVD&1 CXO CRO ADC 2 3 IVD PCR ICL 1 2 3 4 ZXAZzQnQtQpOrPpMnQqPmN6McMbRpNpPpNnOeRrQpNlOsQsNbRpPxPvPqMpNuOtPnP 1 正 文目录 1.4 1.1.4 1.2.5 1.3.7 2 CXO.10 2.1.10 2.2.14 2.3.15 3.19 3.1.19 3.2.22 3.3.24 4 ICL.27 4.1.27 4.2 IVD.28 4.3 ICL.29 5.30 5.1.30 5.2.32 6.33 2 图表目录 1.4 2.4 3 2016-2023Q3.4 4 2016-2023Q3.4 5 2016-2023Q3.5 6 2016-2023Q3.5 7 2013-2022 NDA.6 8 2013-2022.6 9.6 10 2013-2022.6 11 2008-2023.8.22.7 12 2016 2023 10.8 13 2018 2022.8 14.9 15.9 16.10 17.11 18 2018-2027E.11 19.12 20 CXO.12 21 CXO.12 22 2012-2023 Q3.14 23.15 24 DNA.16 25 CRO.16 26 CDMO.16 27 GLP-1.17 28 CDMO.18 29 ADC.18 30 2018 2030 ADC.19 31.20 32 2023.20 33 65.21 34 2018.21 35 2010-2022 GDP.21 36.23 37.24 38().24 39 2016-2025E.25 40.25 41 2015.26 42.26 3 43 IVD.28 44 PCR.28 45.29 46.29 47 ICL.30 48.30 49 PE.32 50 PB.32 51 2013 PE.32 1 2022&2023Q1-Q3.5 2.9 3 CXO 2022&2023Q1-Q3.13 4 CXO.13 5.17 6 2022&2023Q1-Q3.19 7 GDP.22 8.23 9.26 10 IVD 2022&2023Q1-Q3.27 11 2022&2023Q1-Q3.29 12.31 13 2023.31 4 1 1.1 2023 2023 1-10 3.6%16.4%1 Wind 2 Wind 2023Q1-Q3 Q1-Q3 6127.0 2.9%551.7 13.0%2023 Q1-Q3 CDMO 2023 CDMO Q1-Q3 33.0%9.0%18.5%3 2016-2023Q3 Wind 2023 Q1-Q3 4 2016-2023Q3 Wind 2023 Q1-Q3 5 5 2016-2023Q3 6 2016-2023Q3 Wind 2023 Q1-Q3 Wind 2023 Q1-Q3 2023Q1-Q3 CDMO 2023 CDMO 2023 IVD 2023 Q1-Q3 1 2022&2023Q1-Q3 YoY YoY 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-Q3 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-Q3 6.14%12.49%9.52%2.90%26.79%50.76%-1.36%-12.98%14.54%32.49%39.46%-5.85%828.88%30.21%46.66%-20.32%-4.34%8.63%4.26%9.60%-104.23%1470.35%-39.27%36.80%-3.66%7.96%3.06%1.24%17.74%11.60%-1.67%-2.28%8.66%31.69%7.08%8.35%36.29%47.25%-20.96%-2.07%8.37%11.38%8.37%9.13%6.89%4.92%-8.25%-1.43%50.81%11.40%21.00%-24.85%134.08%5.89%24.03%-50.19%Wind 1.2 NDA 467 2021 83 2022 64 2020 6 70%2018 2022 24 NDA 386 106 280 2017 2021 2022 50 15 30%2022 NDA 7 2013-2022 NDA 8 2013-2022 35%2013 2022 NDA 4559 2013-2022 824 9 IND-NDA Active 2023 7 28 10 2013-2022 Active/2023 7 28 7 2022 License in License out 2021 License out License in 34.4%2022 License in 2023 8 22 License out License in 2023 8 22 License out 51 License in 20 11 2008-2023.8.22 1.3 2017-2019 2020 2023 7 10 2022 2022 3.09 7.6%2.46 2.3%DRG/DIP 0.63 4.26 2023 1-10()26187.73 10.60%()22531.36 17.43%8 12 2016 2023 10 2022 2023 2022 2021 2023 13 2018 2022 2022 2018 4+7 9 50%2023 11 7 41 58%167 373 9 14 15 2023 7 21 1 2023 9 2 2023/7/21 1 2023/7/28 2023/8/15 2023/9/9 2023 10 2023/9/14 2023 25 2023 28 2 CXO 2022 CRO biotech ADC CXO CRO ADC CDMO 16 2.1 2.1.1 2022 2415 11 7.8%2015 2022 6.5%2027 3357 6.8%2022E-2027E 2032 3549 5.3%2027E-2032E 17 10;1 10/1 2015 2022 2018 1,154 2022 2,108 16.26%14.89%2022 2027 2027 3,829 18 2018-2027E 12 2022 47.1%2032 62.2%19 2.1.2 CXO 2017-2023Q3 2023 22 CXO 2022 927 61.3%214.4 49.1%2023Q1-Q3 CXO 1.9%/-4.1%20 CXO Wind 22 21 CXO Wind 22 13 2023 Q1-Q3 CXO CDMO CDMO 2023Q1-Q3-41.8%-71.4%2023Q1-Q3-18.3%-18.8%2023Q1-Q3+4.0%+9.5%CRO 3 CXO 2022&2023Q1-Q3 Wind 2.1.3 CXO 2023 CXO 2023 2023 CXO 4 CXO 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 9291 11613 14763 17730 21744 26411 34912 44361 41296 YoY 6.3%25.0%27.1%20.1%22.6%21.5%32.2%27.1%-6.9%3146 4124 5166 6171 7393 11012 14923 19481 19733 YoY 33.7%31.1%25.3%19.5%19.8%49.0%35.5%30.5%1.3%1845 2422 3214 3898 4959 6032 8326 9233 9455 YoY 27.8%31.3%32.7%21.3%27.2%21.6%38.0%10.9%2.4%CXO2022 YoY 2023Q1-Q3 YoY 2022 YoY 2023Q1-Q3 YoY002821.SZ 121.1%-18.3%208.8%-18.8%300149.SZ-21.5%-18.0%194.1%-104.0%300347.SZ 35.9%4.5%-30.2%17.1%300363.SZ 126.6%-41.8%282.8%-71.4%300404.SZ 30.7%28.9%-28.8%7.6%300725.SZ 32.7%9.0%-35.4%-38.3%300759.SZ 37.9%15.6%-17.2%18.5%301096.SZ 62.3%69.7%74.8%38.7%301201.SZ-1.0%-14.9%6.0%-33.5%301230.SZ 6.8%10.6%-8.7%20.3%301257.SZ 16.6%35.5%25.3%164.1%301333.SZ 4.8%12.1%14.5%50.1%600721.SH 24.4%3.6%-158.1%60.9%603127.SH 49.5%24.3%92.7%-48.2%603259.SH 71.8%4.0%72.9%9.5%603456.SH 34.0%4.7%45.3%30.1%688046.SH 31.2%17.7%31.8%-8.1%688073.SH 37.5%36.8%49.6%15.7%688076.SH 1.2%85.6%11.9%72.4%688131.SH 40.1%41.8%1.4%-25.1%688202.SH 42.1%-4.6%19.8%-58.7%688222.SH 6.0%12.6%-60.1%75.4%688238.SH 14.3%-36.4%-28.1%-309.6%688621.SH 37.1%39.7%47.6%32.7%835670.BJ-14.7%164.3%-126.6%205.7%14 1703 2040 2682 3291 3840 5477 7126 9719 9145 YoY 26.8%19.8%31.5%22.7%16.7%42.6%30.1%36.4%-5.9%552 628 672 817 1224 1483 2140 2600 2788 YoY 11.5%13.8%7.0%21.6%49.8%21.2%44.3%21.5%0.0%1587 1727 1784 1642 2077 2635 3782 5332 5237 YoY 27.2%8.8%3.3%-8.0%26.5%26.9%43.5%41.0%-1.8%594 745 711 939 1219 1642 2440 3298 3106 YoY 32.6%25.4%-4.6%32.1%29.8%34.7%48.6%35.2%-5.8%267 467 427 512 652 763 1735 2487 2429 YoY 34.2%74.9%-8.6%19.9%27.3%17.0%127.4%43.3%-2.3%219 279 409 540 671 873 1486 3368 3526 27.4%46.6%32.0%24.3%30.1%70.2%126.6%4.7%128 186 211 244 311 367 631 631 YoY 45.3%13.4%15.6%27.5%18.0%71.9%0.0%327 314 330 2428 2439 2657 2636 2072 2072 YoY 26.7%-4.0%5.1%635.8%0.5%8.9%-0.8%-21.4%0.0%Wind 2.2 2023 2022 2023 2363 452 3000 23%2022 22 2012-2023 Q3 15 2014 100 2022 2023 11 2023 438 22.3%91.87 38.7%23 biotech 2.3 2.3.1 2023 12 8 FDA CRISPR/Cas9 Casgevy exagamglogene autotemcel exa-cel SCD CRISPR DNA-RNA-DNA DNA 16 24 DNA GMP 2016 2020 CRO 4.0 7.1 CRO 2025 17.4 2020-2025 19.8%CDMO 2016 2020 7.7 17.2 22.4%2025 CDMO 78.6 2020 2025 35.5%25 CRO 26 CDMO 2.3.2 GLP-1 CDMO GLP-1 GLP-1 GLP-1,GLP-1(),2-3 17 GLP-1 GLP-1 2-3 GLP-1 27 GLP-1 GLP-1 5 500 500-10,000 10,000 21 180 531 3,751 25,000 150,000 18 GLP-1 CDMO 2023 CDMO 33 2030 79 2020 2025 17.7%28 CDMO 2.3.3 ADC CXO ADC ADC ADC 29 ADC ADC ADC ADC ADC 19 2018 5 2022 15 CAGR 34.50%2030 110 30 2018 2030 ADC 3 2023 2024 3.1 3.1.1 2023Q1-Q3 2022 2021 2023 Q1-Q3 6 2022&2023Q1-Q3 Wind 300015.SZ 7.4%23.0%8.6%35.0%301103.SZ-0.7%22.4%-61.6%51.2%300143.SZ 6.1%27.8%-63.7%69.4%002173.SZ-0.3%12.3%28.8%-10.5%600763.SH-2.2%2.1%-22.0%-0.7%002044.SZ-7.4%24.8%-965.8%158.1%002524.SZ-26.5%44.5%-311.8%-92.1%000516.SZ-7.2%74.7%-43.1%73.1%20 2011 62.71 2019 87.20 4.21%2020 2021 2022 2023 1-9 51.1 2019 12.4%6%31 Wind 2023 1-10()26187.73 10.60%()22531.36 17.43%2023 32 2023 21 3.1.2 2022 65 14.9%2021 0.7pct 2020 2018 55-64 65 32.7%42.6%55 33 65 34 2018 2010-2022 19980 84846.7 GDP 2022 7.07%2021 0.3 35 2010-2022 GDP Wind WHO 2019 22 GDP 11.4 5.3 GDP 7 GDP No GDP%GDP 1 16.8 65,134 3.29 35,937 2 5.4 10,002 14.34 7,673 3 10.7 40,586 1.27 5,532 4 11.7 46,509 0.83 4,516 5 11.1 40,622 0.67 3,017 6 10.2 42,475 0.67 2,874 7 10.8 46,552 0.37 1,889 8 9.6 8,898 2.11 1,801 9 8.7 33,518 0.60 1,738 10 9.9 54,763 0.25 1,368 11 8.2 32,147 0.51 1,344 12 9.1 29,689 0.47 1,273 13 5.6 11,568 1.46 953 14 10.1 52,667 0.17 922 15 3.0 2,115 13.66 871 16 11.3 85,607 0.09 826 17 5.4 9,946 1.28 689 18 10.9 52,187 0.10 580 19 10.7 46,550 0.11 568 20 10.4 50,241 0.09 464 WHO 2019 3.2 2022 5 2022 2023 2 23 8 2023.02 2022.05 2022 2021.08 2021.06 2021.2021.03 2035 2020.01 2019 2017 2016 2016 2015 2010 7,068 2021 24,766 12.07%2010 13,850 11,804 36 Wind 24 3.3 3.3.1 2016 838 2020 1467 2025 2428 37 38()2016 17%2022 29%25 39 2016-2025E 3.3.2 40 18.8%10.4%26 3.3.3 35-44 10%12 15 50%12-74 50%80%4mm 50%2018 2022 2022 2027 15.2%41 2015 42 2022 2027 16.1%9 27 4 ICL 4.1 2023 1 2 10 IVD 2022&2023Q1-Q3 Wind IVD 000710.SZ-3.8%-17.8%-129.9%-733.4%002022.SZ 43.6%-64.6%14.2%-101.7%002030.SZ 57.2%-91.0%49.6%-92.8%002932.SZ 272.1%-91.6%197.8%-96.2%300289.SZ 25.2%-37.2%-351.0%-31.1%300318.SZ 11.4%34.9%75.7%136.0%300396.SZ 34.7%30.7%24.7%20.4%300406.SZ-5.5%9.9%-4.1%37.9%300439.SZ 10.6%-22.6%10.6%13.0%300463.SZ-9.4%-22.2%-26.0%-55.3%300482.SZ 69.0%-57.3%88.7%-67.8%300639.SZ 109.4%-80.0%102.5%-88.4%300642.SZ 9.4%-22.6%-22.5%-51.2%300676.SZ 4.1%-30.4%-45.1%-90.6%300685.SZ-8.2%18.1%10.1%-22.5%300832.SZ 19.7%26.6%36.4%28.4%300942.SZ 15.0%-71.1%-64.9%-166.8%301087.SZ 30.8%13.1%-29.7%44.5%600645.SH 1.3%2.2%-27.3%15.7%603387.SH 30.0%-27.3%25.0%-51.8%603392.SH 94.5%-42.6%134.3%-54.1%603658.SH 17.9%-1.2%19.9%0.2%688067.SH-6.6%0.2%-42.5%1.0%688068.SH-33.8%-86.5%-56.8%-95.1%688075.SH 288.0%-94.8%312.3%-94.0%688105.SH 91.0%-62.3%-12.4%-110.2%688193.SH 3.9%-51.2%-63.9%-135.1%688217.SH 45.8%-27.0%-14.5%-48.6%688289.SH 42.9%-84.5%-13.6%-81.2%688298.SH-13.8%-91.7%-58.0%-102.4%688317.SH 15.2%-89.1%0.2%-94.5%688338.SH-4.6%24.4%6.9%12.3%688389.SH 26.3%20.1%32.1%33.9%688393.SH 15.6%-5.3%-46.5%-13.9%688399.SH 95.0%-93.6%53.2%-110.8%688468.SH-1.2%-4.1%6.9%1.7%688575.SH 238.0%-50.6%394.5%-67.4%688606.SH 80.9%-81.4%54.7%-92.5%688656.SH 0.8%17.9%-51.7%-13.1%688767.SH 4.6%-82.2%-7.2%-89.7%28 4.2 IVD IVD IVD 970 IVD 2023 2025 1000 IVD 45.55%PCR 43 IVD PCR PCR 44 PCR 29 2013 1.78 2019 12.97 39.24%2013 875 2019 4,942 33.45%45 46 4.3 ICL 2023 2023 34.1%48.3%59.2%78.1%76.5%100.1%11 2022&2023Q1-Q3 Wind ICL ICL ICL ICL 300244.SZ 55.0%-34.1%23.3%-78.1%603108.SH 18.4%-9.7%9.9%-7.4%603882.SH 29.6%-48.3%24.0%-76.5%301060.SZ 136.1%-59.2%202.8%-100.1%30 2021 46.1%2027 56.3%47 ICL 5 5.1 2023 2023 12 11 8613.85 4.38%13 300 7.81 pct 48 Wind 2023 12 11 31 2023+1.66%+4.43%-21.42%OK 12%2023 2021 8613.85-4.38-28.19 6721.84-21.42-47.54 7216.45 1.66 12.10 10812.22 4.43-17.91 8371.15-4.32-43.54 5858.69-7.04-23.02 7388.51-5.54-30.98 Wind 2023 12 11 ST+357.31%+338.85%+162.41%-U+142.42%-56.16%-50.89%-49.28%13 2023%1 000766.SZ 357.31 1 002118.SZ-84.12 2 300765.SZ 338.85 2 688202.SH-56.16 3 300255.SZ 162.41 3 600763.SH-50.89 4 603108.SH 142.86 4 300725.SZ-49.28 5 688197.SH-U 142.42 5 688185.SH-47.17 6 688578.SH-U 139.84 6 300357.SZ-46.73 7 688062.SH-U 122.21 7 603392.SH-46.07 8 688108.SH 117.34 8 605369.SH-45.73 9 832735.BJ 104.27 9 300347.SZ-45.66 10 300573.SZ 103.34 10 301367.SZ-44.60 Wind 2023 12 11*ST 2023 12 11 PE 29.84X 29.14X PE 31.75X PE 36.83X 27.07X 32 49 PE Wind 50 PB Wind 10 2023 12 11 TTM 29.14 20.42%7.15%11.17%51 2013 PE Wind 5.2 CXO biotech PCR 2013 33 2024 IVD&1 CXO CRO ADC 2 3 IVD PCR ICL 6 1 2 3 4 湘财证券投 资评级 体系（市场比较 基准为 沪 深 300 指数）6-12 15%6-12 5%15%6-12-5%5%6-12 5%6-12 15%重要声明 分析师声明