资源描述
2009 1210 2023 11 30 2024 2023 1.07 1.24 2.8%3.2%39.2 40.7 3.5%3.6%+2022 3.04 2025 6.49 2022 8%2025 16%2023-2025 0.22 0.47 0.64 2024 16:1 13.1 14.2 1.1 2023-2025 2.42 2.1 1.85 45.6%36.7%28.8%27.1%2024 10/90%2023-2025 2.7 1.46 1.22 2%2024+1.4 4.5%S0360522120003 S0360522120002%()125 0.02()24,745.19 2.76()21,347.15 3.07%1M 6M 12M 2.1%-6.3%-10.1%0.1%2.9%-5.1%20231113-20231117 2023-11-19 20231106-20231110 2023-11-12 20231030-20231103 2023-11-05-14%-5%4%13%22/11 23/02 23/04 23/06 23/09 23/112022-11-302023-11-30 300 2024 2009 1210 2023-2025 2024 1.07 1.24 3 AI 39.2 40.7 2023-2025 0.22 0.47 0.64 2024 13.1 14.2 15.2 16.1 2023-2025 2.42 2.1 1.85 2024 149.2 204 24-25 131.53 168.78 17.7 35.2 10-15/2024 90%9/90%10/2023-2025 26.52 28.74 30.51 29.2 30.2 31.7 2.7 1.46 1.22 2%2024 2024 0YBYzQqNoNoPrPtQqNtMnMbRdN7NnPqQpNsRfQoPsQiNnNmN9PnMmQuOnPpQuOpPyR 2024 2009 1210 3.6.7.9.12.13.13 1.13 2.14.15 1 55%.15 2 10%.16 3.16.17 2024.19.19.21.24.24.26.28.29.29.31.34.34 2024 2009 1210 4 1.6 2 2018.6 3.7 4 2023.7 5.8 6.8 7 2019-2025.9 8.9 9.9 10 2022.10 11 2022.10 12.11 13 2020-2025E.11 14 2007.13 15 2022 55%.14 16.15 17 2021.15 18 2020.16 19 2018.16 20.17 21 2020-2025.19 22().20 23.20 24.21 25.21 26.21 27 MWh.22 28 2020-2025.22 29 LCE.22 30 2021-2025(LCE).23 31 2017 1.24 32 2022.25 33 2017-2022.25 2024 2009 1210 5 34 2017-2023 1-9.25 35 2022 CR5 60%.25 36.26 37.26 38 2021.26 39 2017-2023H1.26 40.27 41.27 42 2019-2025.27 43 2020.29 44 2020.29 45 2022 2023.30 46 2010.31 47 2017-2024.31 48 2020.32 49 2018-2022.32 50.33 51%.34 2024 2009 1210 6 2023 1.07 1.24 2.8%3.2%3 AI 39.2 40.7 1.32 1.41 3.5%3.6%+2022 3.04 2025 6.49 2022 8%2025 16%2023-2025 0.22 0.47 0.64 4 8 8 2024 1 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E()33.71 37.92 38.03 37.70 38.77 40.02-3.13 4.21 0.11-0.33 1.07 1.24()36.42 39.08 37.95 37.92 39.24 40.66-0.46 2.66-1.13-0.03 1.32 1.41()-2.71-1.16 0.08-0.22-0.47-0.64 ITA Wind CPIA OFweek Marklines SMM 2 2018 Wind 050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,0000.0010,000.0020,000.0030,000.0040,000.0050,000.0060,000.002018-01-02 2019-01-02 2020-01-02 2021-01-02 2022-01-02 2023-01-02:LME/:(1#)/2024 2009 1210 7 20 30-35 2022 ITA 2023 13.8 8.2%2023 26%18%16%2022 0.46 0.87 0.43 0.43 3 4 2023 ITA ITA SMM 2021 2022 8.2 7.8-4.74%-5.66%7 10 2023 6152.26 2022 2757.74 3394.52 SMM 2023 6.9-11.7%2022 18.7 ITA 62%80%2023 4 8 1 9 10 0.5-1 2023 1-10 20.45 4.5%14.69 1.8%10-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0%26%18%16%7%7%7%7%6%3%2%1%2024 2009 1210 8 5 6 Wind Wind 2023 2.5 26.4%47 90%2010 9.78 2021 5.3 2022 2022 6.3 21%2023 0.9 6.7%1.5-2 2023 0.87 3%San Rafael 2022 2.3 2023 1 San Rafael 3 0.76 33%23 31%2023-2025 37.3 38.8 40-0.9%+2.8%+3.2%-0.33 1.07 1.24 ITA Massangana 3600 2024 Mpama South 8000 2023 Hemerdon 2023Q4 SanRafael 23 1 3 Manono 2024 2024 2024-2025 38.8 40 05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00050,0002018-012018-052018-092019-012019-052019-092020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-09:0%20%40%60%80%100%120%05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,0002018-022018-062018-102019-022019-062019-102020-022020-062020-102021-022021-062021-102022-022022-062022-102023-022023-062023-10:%2024 2009 1210 9 7 2019-2025 2023 2.1%ITA 2023 12.5 2.1%7-8 3.8 13.3%2%10 2023 2019-2020 8 9 ITA Mysteel 50%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%30.0031.0032.0033.0034.0035.0036.0037.0038.0039.0040.0041.002019年 2020年 2021年 2022年 2023E 2024E 2025E yoy%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%0.01.02.03.04.05.06.0 YOY%0.000.501.001.502.002.503.000102030402019-5-6 2020-5-6 2021-5-6 2022-5-6 2023-5-6/2024 2009 1210 10 ITA 2022 50%16%12%3C 60%10 2022 11 2022 ITA ITA AI 2023 1-9 2.53 20%2113 12%6.7 5%5G AI IDC 3.5%2024 3.8%2025-2027 2027 13+2022 3.04 2025 6.49 2022 8%2025 16%ITA GW 70-80 2023 350GW 2.45 2.80 2024 420GW 2.94 3.36 22%2025 500GW 3.5 4 21%2025 2.64 1.2kg 2022 1.32 2025 1300 900 2200 2025 2.64 2022 1.32 26%ITA 2023 4.2%PVC PVC,50%,16%,12%,8%,7%,8%,30%,17%,16%,21%,8%,5%,4%2024 2009 1210 11 ITA 39.2 40.7 1.32 1.41+2025 6.49 16%12 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 0.98 1.28 1.73 2.63 3.19 3.85 0.37 0.78 1.32 1.68 2.16 2.64 1.34 2.06 3.04 4.31 5.35 6.49 yoy 53.4%47.8%41.6%24.3%21.3%3.7%5.3%8.0%11.4%13.6%16.0%16.05 17.10 15.93 15.30 15.45 15.60 yoy 6.5%-6.8%-4.0%1.0%1.0%6.14 6.39 6.13 5.93 5.99 6.05 yoy 4.0%-4.0%-3.3%1.0%1.0%12.89 13.54 12.84 12.39 12.45 12.51 yoy 5.1%-5.2%-3.5%0.5%0.5%36.42 39.08 37.95 37.92 39.24 40.66 yoy 7.3%-2.9%-0.1%3.5%3.6%33.71 37.92 38.03 37.70 38.77 40.02 yoy%-8%12%0%-0.9%2.8%3.2%-2.71-1.16 0.08-0.22-0.47-0.64 ITA Wind CPIA Marklines 13 2020-2025E ITA Wind CPIA Marklines-3.00-2.50-2.00-1.50-1.00-0.500.000.500.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.0040.0045.002020年 2021年 2022年 2023E 2024E 2025E()()()2024 2009 1210 12 2024 1 17 2022 8 4.1 2.4 2023 5.90 2024 2 100.00%5 906 33/1385 5000 2020 9 2.94 237.6/165/330/2024 3 2022 19.56 0.74%8 165 25 140 2022 2,757.74 2023 0.6%-0.7%1%-1.2%6,152.26 2024 297/2024 2009 1210 13 16:1 13.1 14.2 1.1 9.2%8.4%2023-2025 2022 15.2 16.1 0.8 0.9 5.4%5.6%2023-2025 2.42 2.1 1.85 2023 8.15/3%2024 14 2007 Wind 1 2010 90%2022 55%USGS 2022 11 2022 6 55%2010 90%55%020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000:1#/2024 2009 1210 14 15 2022 55%USGS 16:1 2022 180 11 16:1 16 6:1 6 64:1 105:1 2 2020 8 63%166 71 36 36 5 1.1 2022 5 45%2%1.1 2025 7.2 55%2025 14.2 1 2022 6 2 FEA 6000 1.6 24 2025 3 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%024681012141618202010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022%,2024 2009 1210 15 2023-2025 5 1 2025 14.2 16 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 8 6.1 6 6 6 6 3 2 2 2 2.3 2.6 2.8 1.68 1.7 1.7 2.5 3.3 0.6 0.46 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.96 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 16.30 12.20 12.00 12.00 13.10 14.20%-25%-2%0%9%8%USGS,2021 55%15%15%10%17 2021 1 55%50%-21%,55%,15%,15%,10%,5%2024 2009 1210 16-Research Nester 2022 80 2023-2025 8.1%18 2020 19 2018 2 10%4%-30%CPIA 2018 2%2020 30%2025 60%2023 0.98 2025 4.1 CPIA 2023-2025 350GW 420GW 500GW 2023-2025 46%52%57%1GW 7.3 1GW 5.6 2023-2025 2.8 3.4 4.1 3 15%2025 1.9 2020 70%45%28%8%6%2021 42.0%2.2%,33.30%,21%,19%,8%,7.20%,11.80%,49.70%,18.20%,11.20%,1.30%,19.60%2024 2009 1210 17 15%2025 1.72 95%2.5 2023-2025 0.14/0.08/0.08 0.5-0.6 0.5 2025 16.05 1.85 2023-2025 2022 2025 4.1 1.90 1.72 2025 1.85 20 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 7.28 7.50 7.73 7.73 7.73 7.73%3%3%0%0%0%0.99 1.33 1.81 2.79 3.41 4.10%34%36%54%22%20%1.62 1.66 1.69 1.74 1.83 1.90%2%2%3%5%4%1.32 1.43 1.42 1.56 1.64 1.72%8%-1%10%5%5%0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 11.82 12.52 13.25 14.42 15.20 16.05%6.0%5.8%8.9%5.4%5.6%16.30 12.20 12.00 12.00 13.10 14.20 4.48-0.32-1.25-2.42-2.10-1.85 CPIA SMM 1 2023 2024 2009 1210 18 6 100/2.5/4/3000/2 100.00%5 906 33/1385 5000 2020 9 5.87 237.6/165/330/2024 2024 2009 1210 19 2024 149.2 204 46.8 54.8 45.6%36.7%36%29%12%56%61%10/2024 9/90%10 10 2023 102.4 2024 46.8 149.2 46%1 29 10.44 2 11.5 3 1.6 4 2.5 5 2.2 2024 66%1 14 30%2 30.56 65%3 2.2 5%21 2020-2025 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 189,013 241,402 344,177 463,375 753,000 996,750 145,022 183,600 249,900 319,100 434,000 600,000 46,530 58,500 80,000 104,000 129,000 223,000 7,000 13,000 17,000 20,000 36,000 70,000 26700 42000 100000 118000 140000 150000 LCE 414,265 538,502 791,077 1,024,475 1,492,000 2,039,750%2.90%29.99%46.90%29.50%45.64%36.71%2024 2009 1210 20 25.3 23.3 46.8 54.8 2024 2023 6%17.5%22()23 2024-2025 2021 23 51/11 16/22 41%2024 90%9/90%10/0%10%20%30%40%50%0.0050.00100.00150.00200.00250.002020A 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E%0%10%20%30%40%50%0501001502002502020A 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E%2024 2009 1210 21 24 2023 2023 1-10 596 35%2023 1-9 49.6 MWh 36.7%2023 10 37%7.7pct 2023/2024/2025 1400 1800 2200 25 26 Wind Wind 0200004000060000800001000001200001400000%4%25%29%31%32%33%36%38%51%54%55%58%63%68%71%77%79%84%86%89%91%94%97%100%/90 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%2019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-10%-200%-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%600%700%01020304050607080902019-022019-052019-082019-112020-022020-052020-082020-112021-022021-052021-082021-112022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-052023-08%2024 2009 1210 22 27 MWh 28 2020-2025 Wind BNEF Gartner IEA EV TANK EV-Volumes EV sales 23-25 38%56%61%1 2022 7.3GW/15.9GWh 200%97%20 2021 5 2023 2023 2025 50GW 2030 250GW 2 2022 3 IRA 2022 4.8GW/12.2GWh 34%/12%Wood Mackenzie 2023-2027 74.2GW/241GWh 2023/2024/2025 150GW 250GW 400GW 13.12 20.42 32.81 29 LCE GGII Wind EV Tank EV sales IEA Gartner BNEF EV-Volumes-200%0%200%400%600%800%1000%1200%1400%1600%010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,0002019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-07:MWh%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%050010001500200025002020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E yoy(%)0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%0.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00140.00160.00180.002021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E()2024 2009 1210 23 2024 149.2 131.53 2024-2025 17.7 35.2 30 2021-2025(LCE)2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 25.12 43.87 60.13 81.89 105.87 4.81 9.48 13.12 20.42 32.81 12.00 10.94 9.85 10.34 10.65 17.28 17.80 18.33 18.88 19.45 59.21 82.10 101.44 131.53 168.78 53.85 79.11 102.45 149.20 203.98-5.36-2.99 1.01 17.67 35.19 GGII Wind EV Tank EV sales IEA Gartner BNEF EV-Volumes 2024 2009 1210 24 2021 2020 2021 2023 2 5590/2023-2025 26.52 28.74 30.51 0.31 2.22 1.78 1.2%8.4%6.2%2023-2025 29.2 30.2 31.7 0.58 0.97 1.53 2.0%3.3%5.1%2023-2025 2.7 1.46 1.22 31 2017 1 Wind 2022 1200 31%22%20%Wind 2022 10.47 37%2023 IMOA 13.39 4%6.05 11%0.001,000.002,000.003,000.004,000.005,000.006,000.002017-01-03 2018-01-03 2019-01-03 2020-01-03 2021-01-03 2022-01-03 2023-01-03:(45%-50%,)/2024 2009 1210 25 32 2022 33 2017-2022 USGS Wind 2017-2021 20-22 2022 24 7%60%23.3%13.4%13.3%2023 2023 1-9 21 18%34 2017-2023 1-9 35 2022 CR5 60%2022 5.08 12.9%23 2.51 2022 7.56 8%2023 3.67 3%Codelco Antamina Antofagasta Kennecott 2022 2023 2.8 1.97 1.2 0.55 0.8 0.11-2%+1%-20%+20%+23%-52%0.1 2023 22%12%31%20%4%3%8%0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%0510152025302017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1-9%,23.32%,13.39%,13.30%,7.18%,3.55%,3.28%,35.99%2024 2009 1210 26 36 37 iFinD IMOA iFinD 82%IMOA 2021 27.86 82%24%58%18%13%5%2022 4.7%2023 4.6%Wind 2022 28.64 4.74%12.2 9.5%20%5.63 4.39%10%2.78 2.34%10%2.31 3.23%2023 13.63 4.6%5.6 5.6%38 2021 39 2017-2023H1 IMOA Wind 2013 1898 2022 3198 300 200 0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.0010.00南美 北美 其他（不含中国）2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H10.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.0014.0016.002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1-9 Codelco Antofagasta Kennecott Antamina,13%,5%,24%,39%,3%,8%,8%-15.00%-10.00%-5.00%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 2024 2009 1210 27 2013 977 2022 1668 2023 2013-2022 0.11 0.14 0.31 0.24 0.30 0.14 2022 2 40 41 Wind Wind Mysteel 1 2023-2025 1.2%8.4%6.2%26.52 28.74 30.51 2023-2025 2.0%3.3%5.1%29.2 30.2 31.7 2023-2025 2.7 1.46 1.22 42 2019-2025 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 10.02 10.64 11.14 12.20 12.44 13.06 14.11 yoy(%)6.2%4.7%9.5%2.0%5.0%8.0%14.74 15.50 16.21 16.45 16.78 17.13 17.62 yoy(%)5.1%4.6%1.5%2.0%2.1%2.8%24.76 26.14 27.35 28.64 29.22 30.20 31.73 yoy(%)5.6%4.6%4.7%2.0%3.3%5.1%9.33 8.85 10.08 11.28 11.69 12.85 14.51 yoy(%)-5.1%13.9%11.9%3.6%9.9%12.9%16.77 18.47 16.04 14.93 14.83 15.89 16.00 yoy(%)10.2%-13.2%-6.9%-0.7%7.1%0.7%26.10 27.32 26.12 26.21 26.52 28.74 30.51 yoy(%)4.7%-4.4%0.3%1.2%8.4%6.2%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,500 0.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.350.402013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2024 2009 1210 28 1.34 1.18-1.23-2.44-2.71-1.46-1.22 IMOA 1 2022 15,146 6,213 4,947 4.65 0.083%4.71 0.120%25.39 0.113%25000 234 0.143%2.72 2+2022 138.39 1.5 2023 1.20-1.50 50.72 19.68 30000/2024 2009 1210 29 2023 2022 3 2023 Q2 45/Q3 50/2023 440%2023 22%Q2 50/2020 30/2023 1400 2020 333%4 2020 20%2%2024 2024 2023 0%2%2024+1.4 4.5%2024 43 2020 44 2020 iFind iFind 2022 1.3 4400 33.8%2022 70%90%0.00200.00400.00600.00800.001,000.001,200.002020-01-02 2021-01-02 2022-01-02 2023-01-02:(99%Nd2O3 75%):/05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,50002,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,00018,0002020-01-02 2021-01-02 2022-01-02 2023-01-02:(99.9%):/:(99%):/2024 2009 1210 30 80%2023 24 14.3%166650 17.6%54200 10.2%2023 220850 15.7%2023 19150 13010 3440 2700 2023 152234 18.1%63199 8%45 2022 2023 2022 2023 2022 2023 1 49200 13010 54200 13010 58499 63199 2 141650 166650 128934 152234 3 3440 3440 3963 3963 4 2700 2700 10604 10604 3610 3610 190850 19150 220850 19150 202000 230000 210000 240000 202000 230000 2021-2023 20%25%14%2020 2023 2021-2022 2.19 1.39 2023 2023 1-9 3.49 440%2024 2009 1210 31 46 2010 2023 24 45%47 2017-2024 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 E 2024 E 16800 20364 22017 23253 28744 37713 43563 43563 21.20%8.10%5.60%23.60%23.78%13.43%0.00%42%42%41%41%46%47%45%44%2760 2990 3220 3450 3680 3700 7700 8800 13500 13750 14500 14750 15500 18000 23250 24300 0 2350 3981 5924 6000 6000 6000 6000 1552 3770 5049 5015 4218 2975 11250 11250 5400 5580 5610 4860 5400 5550 5550 5550 40012 48805 54377 57252 73022 79838 97313 99463 22%11.4%5.3%11.0%9.3%21.9%2.2%0.1%10%-20%2024 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0500001000001500002000002500002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023%2024 2009 1210 32 7.9 25%2023 31 2024+1.4 4.5%2024 5.4 29%2019-2023 2023 1-10 735.2 34%2023 1400 3kg 2023 4.2 2024 1800 5.4 29%2024 2.5 7.4%2019 2022 5010 15%2022 5290 18-22 CAGR 13.1%2026 6970 2022 7.1%2023 5800 360g 2023 2.32 2024 6230 2.5 7.4%48 2020 49 2018-2022 Wind 2023 1-9 2.53 20%2113 12%6.7 5%5G IDC 3.5%2024 3.8%2025-2027 2027 13 2025 2027 0.00100.00200.00300.00400.00500.00600.00700.00800.001月 2 月 3月 4 月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9 月 10月 11 月 12月2020 2021 2022 2023-15.00%-10.00%-5.00%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%01000200030004000500060002018 2019 2020 2021 2022%2024 2009 1210 33 Bot Optimus 40 50g-100g 2-4kg 3kg 2025/2026/2027 10/50/100 2027 4000 2025 2027 50 Wind 1-10 6.2%2022 1-10 9.7%2019 3.1%2020-2.2%1-10 36.6%2022 42.6%2021 23.3%1-10 18.7%2022 12.6%0102030405060:2024 2009 1210 34 51%Wind-60.00-40.00-20.000.0020.0040.0060.0080.002017-022017-052017-082017-112018-022018-052018-082018-112019-022019-052019-082019-112020-022020-052020-082020-112021-022021-052021-082021-112022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-052023-08:%:%:%:%2024 2009 1210 35 6 2 2021 2021 2021 2022 2022 7 Wind 2022 2022 2 2022 2023 2024 2009 1210 36 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 2024 2009 1210 37 A 300 500/6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522
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