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|2024 24 2023 2024 23 20-30 A 2 21 9 26 23 10 24 20-30 24-25 10-19 23-25 4.2%737MAX 23/23 24-25 1 2 23 24 3 17 TOP10 60%24(601111)(600029)(601021)(603885)(600115)(002928)/2023 11 29 021-63325888*6072 S0860510120030 23 2023-10-19 23H1 23Q2 2023-09-08 7 2023-08-20 2024 2.5 2024 24.5 2023 5 2024 6.9 9 11 13 24-25 10-19.15 737MAX 15 A320 24-25 15 16 17.20.26.28.29 ZXAZyRsPtQrQoQsRnQtMrQ6MaObRmOnNtRmPkPqRrQkPoNoO8OmNrQNZnRmMxNqRpP 3 1 2023 300.5 2.6 3.6 4 23 11 17.6 5 23Q1-Q3 19.6 6.7 7 PE-FY2 1.8 8 PE-FY2 2.8 9-.8 10 19.9 11 19.9 12 2023 10/.10 13 23 10.10 14 19.10 15 23H1 19.10 16 23 19.10 17 REVPAR 19.11 18 REVPAR 19.11 19.12 20.13 21.13 22 WIND A.13 23 G20 2019.14 24.14 25 30%.14 26%.14 27 23 8.15 28 I.17 29 23H1.18 30 23H1 AIR Lease.18 31 RPK.20 32.20 33 RPK.22 34.22 4 35.24 36.24 37/10 30.26 38.27 39 300.27 1.16 2 PW1100G A320.16 3 100 C919 23-25.17 4 23-25.18 5 2008-2010.21 6 2010.21 7.22 8 19.22 9.23 10 23 TOP20 17 23.24 11 23Q1-Q3.25 5 24 2024 24 2023 2023 2023 11 17 23-21%-12%300-8%1 2023 300 WIND 22 23 3 22 23 23 50%-60%19 15-20%19 2-5pct 19 11-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%沪深300 航空 交通运输(中信)6 19 10%19 10%-20%19 8 2 3 WIND 23 23 11 17-44%-24%-23%-19%-17%ASK-150%-100%-50%0%50%01 01 01 15 01 29 02 12 02 26 03 12 03 26 04 09 04 23 05 07 05 21 06 04 06 18 07 02 07 16 07 30 08 13 08 27 09 10 09 24 10 08 10 22 11 05-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%65%70%75%80%85%90%19 年客座率23 年客座率23 年较19 年同比（右轴）-23%-19%-24%-17%-15%-44%-15%-12%-16%-9%-7%-36%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%23 300 2.3%2.4%-8.4%21.9%22.1%-4.5%-88.3%-67.6%55.7%-8.3%RPK-11.2%-15.5%-21.1%7.7%13.1%-2.37%-8.9%-5.5%-8.9%-2.4%-3.2%-4.9%4.2%6.8%3.7%11.3%4.5%-11.3%-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%RPK 7 17+6 WIND 8 3-10-7 PE-FY2 1 8 PE-FY2 2 WIND WIND PE-FY2/PE 09-10 4.23 7.14 20-23 1.29 9-9 WIND 23 20-30 23 10 10 19 103.6%98.4%89.9%54.5%1-10 101.2%93.8%54.7%35.3%10 19 11 19 WIND WIND 19-120%-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%2020-01 2021-01 2022-01 2023-01:-120%-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%2020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-10:10 12 2023 10/13 23 10 14 19 pre-flight 2023 20-30 20-30 30 23 23 23 20-30 23H1 6 33%25%23H1 15 23H1 19 16 23 19 东南亚45%东亚31%欧洲8%北美洲6%大洋洲4%南亚3%西亚1%北亚1%中亚1%其他0%11 23Q3 19 23 23 3-15 15%19 40%4pct 1-2 30-45 23 30-45 4%-9%23 23 17 REVPAR 19 18 REVPAR 19 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%21Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q3经济型 中端型0%20%40%60%80%100%120%23Q1 23Q2 23Q3经济型 中高端（商务型）经济型-中高端 恢复率 差值 12 23 11 15 23 4 23 10 27 23 11 9 35 1 1 70 332 21.08%19 23 23 8 9 24 1 2023 8 10 138 010203040506070805 3 9 1 10 29 11 9 13 20 A 2 21 9 26 23 10 24 20-30 21 22 WIND A WIND WIND 2019 0.47 6.6/14 G20 14 2035 1 1.5 14 16 4.8%-7.5%01002002019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-10非制造业PMI:商务活动服务业商务活动指数:当月同 比消费者预期指数:收入消费者预期指数:就业消费者预期指数-20%0%20%40%60%80%2011-012011-082012-032012-102013-052013-122014-072015-022015-092016-042016-112017-062018-012018-082019-032019-102020-052020-122021-072022-022022-092023-042023-11 ttm 14 2010 80%2010-19 10.5%16.1%10.0%23 G20 2019 24 Wind Wind 1 3.43 8943 3.43 14 5 24.5%19 1.54 11%90%50%30%4000-5000 20-21 25 30%26%BTS 0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.5澳大利亚美国加拿大英国韩国土耳其德国沙特法国日本俄罗斯墨西哥巴西中国意大利南非阿根廷印尼印度-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%0200040006000800010000120001400016000180002017 2018 2019 2020 2021(0102030405060708090100 15 24-25 10-19 737MAX A320 24-25 737MAX 737MAX 737MAX 21 23 AEG 737MAX 23 4 Spirit AeroSystems 737MAX 737MAX8 737MAX 737MAX 9 737MAX 23 9 15 737 MAX 21 5 11 23 38 737 MAX 9 22 737MAX 24-25 2022 27 23 8 A320 24-25 PW1100G A320 23-26 23 9 A320NEO PW1100G A320 A320neo PW1100G 15-21 RTX 60 300 23 8 A320 1870 PW1100 237 6%15-21 PW1100 A320 2%23-26 16 1 23H1 3960 23 8 A320 1870 PW1100 A320 237 PW1100 A320 6%15-21 PW1100 A320 2%23 8 CFM 78 28 24 12 24%18%9%3%2 PW1100G A320 PW1100G A320 28 100%28 28 24%49 100%78 78 9%29 51%24 100%78 24 3%54 39%12 100%12 12 18%C919 158 168 B737 A320 2023 9 28 100 C919 C919 2024 2031 2024 5 2025 2027 10 2028 2030 15 2031 20 17 23-25 2022 2.8%/3.4%/-0.2%2.8%/4.0%/0.4%24-25 0.6pct 0.2pct 3 100 C919 23-25 2023E 2024E 2025E C919 2.8%4.0%0.4%4.2%5.0%3.4%C919 2.8%3.4%-0.2%4.2%4.8%3.2%C919 C919 C919 28 I 18 23H1 95%AIR LEASE AER CAP 23H1 3-6 99.99%98%2 1.5-2 AIR LEASE 2023 23-24 100%24 29 23H1 30 23H1 AIR Lease airlease aercap 23H1 3-6 AIR LEASE 2023 AIR LEASE 2029 23H1 AIR LEASE 23Q3 PW1100G 100 23-25 4.2%2022 0.2pct 737MAX 23-25 4.2%10-19 10%24 4 23-25 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 19-25 23-25 694 702 741 757 882 915 943 5.2%3.4%723 725 752 775 797 829 832 2.4%2.2%848 851 862 879 929 982 1034 3.4%5.5%99 108 113 116 123 137 147 6.8%9.3%99.00%95.20%99.99%98.00%92%93%94%95%96%97%98%99%100%AIR LEASE AERCAP23H10%20%40%60%80%100%120%020406080100 AIR LEASE AIR LEASE 19 96 98 110 110 115 127 137 6.1%9.1%2460 2484 2578 2637 2846 2990 3093 3.9%4.2%20 24 32%19%17%14%5%3%0-2019 1%39%26%15%12%8%6%-24 6 2008 11-2010 11 1008 4302 327%2008 ASK 6%2009 2010 ASK 14%2010 ASK 2008 30%ASK 2008 RPK 3%2009 17%2010 RPK 20%2010 RPK 2008 40%2008 3pct 6pct 2009 2010 3pct 6pct 6pct 13pct 2010 2008 10pct 2010 2008 20pct 2009 RPK+22%RPK-2%2009 2008 0.7 2.5 1.7 2.6pct 2010 34%RPK 17%2010 2009 3.4 2.3 3.2pct/RPK-ASK 2.2 2.3 31 RPK 32 21 WIND WIND 2008-2010-2:1 5 2008-2010 2008 2009 2010 2010 2008 11%13%13%27%ASK 6%14%14%30%RPK 3%17%20%40%RPK-ASK-3%3%6%10%-6%6%13%20%/RPK-ASK 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.1 WIND 2010 15%20%/RPK-ASK 1.5-2.4/RPK-ASK 2.4-3.4 6 2010 2010 RPK-ASK/5.9%14.3%20%2.43 3.43 6.1%12.7%18%2.08 2.92 11.3%17.2%27%1.52 2.35 2010-10%0%10%20%30%40%2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013总RPK 增速 国内RPK 增速国际RPK 增速0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 22 09 08 13.1%10.3%2.8 10 13.4%10-19 10%23-25 4.2%7 2008 2009 2010 2023E 2024E 2025E 10-19 YOY 23-25E YOY 13.1%10.3%13.4%7.9%5.1%3.4%10.3%4.2%Wind 2008 RPK 2007 17%3%2009 2010 RPK 18%20%3 19-22 RPK-31%2025 9.3 19-25 5.9%19-25 5%25 8.8 33 RPK 34 WIND WIND 24-25+34%19 28%8 19 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 8%-37%5%-43%149%34%5%19 0%-37%-33%-62%-5%28%34%WIND-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00020072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023E RPK-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%0246810200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E 23 2009-2010 2017 60%2017 TOP 50 1698 10%18-23 12 23 TOP10 23 23 11 8 17 60%9 1997 1997 2004 3+0.75/25%45%94 2010 4 2013 10 25%31 2014 11 LOG 101 2016 9 800 800 375 10 10%2017 12 5 5 15%10 10 10%306 1030 2020 11 3 3 370 1698 1980 22.6%2019 2.15%2019-2023 2019 1.81%2021 1.41%2022 23 10 1.73%24 23/24/25 5%/4%/4%5.2/5.4/5.6 2.00%/2.15%/2.15%1035/1157/1203 19 13%/27%/32%24/25 12%/4.0%35 36 WIND Flight AI WIND 17 23 TOP20 17 23 TOP20 55%10%10 23 TOP20 17 23 17 23 23 1-1240 2150 2150 1630 2150-2150 2-1690 2950 2690 2230-3-1400 2450 1850 2230 2230 2450 2230 4-1760 3090 2810 2120 3090 2810 2810 5-1350 2350 1950 2140 2350 2350 2140 6-2080 3650 3650 3320 3020-7-1910 3360 3360 3060 2310-8-1640 2870 2870 2170 2380-9-2200 3210 3210 2410 2420-10-1550 2470 2050 2050 2470 2470 2250 11-1480 2580 2580 2580 1950-12-1430 2070 2070 2070 1720-13-1600 2690 2690 2690 2690 2690 2690 14-1180 1700 1700 1700 1550-15-1390 2430 1390 1520 2430 2210 2430 16-1260 2000 2000 2000 1380-0%10%20%30%40%01000020000300004000050000600001980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016201820202023E2025E-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%1.4%1.6%1.8%2.0%25 17-1850 2950 2950 2230 2230-18-2550 3380 3380 3380 3380-19-1500 2840 2840-2590-20-1480 2140 2140 2140 1950-1627 2667 2530 2323 2326 17 64%55%43%43%-12%19 15%19+23%+21%=+21%+19%+15%23 24 23Q1-Q3+21%+13%+11%+7%+3%23 24 23/23 24-25 11 23Q1-Q3 23Q1-Q3 3105.1 1054.8 1194.9 855.4 141.0 158.8 22 109.7%150.6%70.3%138.6%113.6%144.8%19-0.8%2.3%2.4%-8.4%21.9%22.1%2780.8 981.5 1014.1 785.3 138.2 156.7 22 164.5%234.5%114.5%175.5%114.6%162.1%19-2.4%3.9%-3.4%-8.3%23.1%22.7%90%93%85%92%98%99%-5.0 7.9 13.2-26.1 26.8 11.3 22 99.3%102.8%107.5%90.7%254.1%138.1%19-103.3%-88.3%-67.6%-159.7%55.7%-8.3%-42.3-8.7-1.5-32.0 25.7 11.2 22 94.4%96.9%99.2%88.7%240.2%137.1%19-130.1%-113.3%-104.2%-182.2%62.2%-2.9%26-37.0-13.1-12.4-11.5 0.2-2.7 97.6 32.1 28.3 37.2 8.3 6.8 28.1 22.4 4.6 1.0 0.0 0.0 22.8 17.7 22.5-17.4 26.6 13.3 ASK 6261.4 2144.7 2332.0 1784.7 356.2 359.7 22 125.4%182.3%85.8%133.8%46.5%101.2%19-7.2%-0.3%-9.5%-11.5%10.6%17.4%RPK 4675.6 1554.7 1806.4 1314.5 318.5 297.6 22 160.7%226.1%117.1%171.4%75.3%144.0%19-15.8%-11.2%-15.5%-21.1%7.7%13.1%74.7%72.5%77.5%73.7%89.4%82.7%22 10.1%9.7%11.2%10.2%14.7%14.5%19-7.7%-8.9%-5.5%-8.9%-2.4%-3.2%0.59 0.63 0.56 0.60 0.43 0.53 22 1.5%2.6%-1.2%1.5%22.4%7.4%19 15.9%17.0%14.4%16.2%14.3%8.6%0.44 0.46 0.43 0.44 0.39 0.44 22 17.4%18.5%15.4%17.8%46.5%30.3%19 5.1%4.2%6.8%3.7%11.3%4.5%2846.8 973.6 1063.6 809.6 111.4 128.3 22 43.8%58.5%32.6%43.7%27.5%52.7%19 8.4%17.0%6.8%1.5%17.1%20.4%0.45 0.45 0.46 0.45 0.31 0.36 22-36.2%-43.8%-28.7%-38.5%-13.0%-24.1%19 16.8%17.3%18.0%14.7%5.9%2.5%344.0 127.8 116.1 100.1 5.7 18.7 11.1%12.1%9.7%11.7%4.0%11.8%-3.1%-3.1%-3.1%-3.1%-3.1%-3.1%6,563 6,563 6,563 6,563 6,563 6,563 22-11.4%-11.4%-11.4%-11.4%-11.4%-11.4%19 33.8%33.8%33.8%33.8%33.8%33.8%23 10 30 68%56%49%45%31%14%37/10 30 27 Wind 10 2010 2198 19 684 3.2 10 17 1238 1.8 38 Wind 08-10 2008 10 2010 10 25 2.8 300 1.2 39 300 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%-0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50-3000-2000-100001000200030002009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 28 Wind 1 2 23 24 3 17 TOP10 60%24(601111)(600029)(601021)(603885)(600115)(002928)-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%600%2005-012005-072006-012006-082007-022007-082008-022008-082009-032009-092010-032010-092011-032011-092012-032012-092013-042013-102014-042014-102015-042015-102016-042016-102017-042017-102018-042018-112019-052019-112020-052020-112021-052021-112022-052022-11 300 29 1 2 3 4 30 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer
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