资源描述
SAC S0850517090006 2023 11 30 AI AI 2 1 1 2 3 4 5 PCB 6&7 7 2 AI AI 1 GPU AI 2 100G 400G 800G 1.6T 3 LPO CPO 3 4 1 AI 2 3 4 AIoT 5 6 YWCXzQsPtQrQoQnOsPtMnM8OcM6MmOpPtRpMlOoPnPfQnNmN8OqRqMMYpNoQwMpMsM 1.2.AI 3.4.&3 23 4 Wind 2023 90 19155.56+5.56%1730.38+6.17%1590.03+5.30%3878.07+2.90%250.12-4.76%208.82-6.07%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%0500010000150002000025000300002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-Q3%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%01000200030004000500060002019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-Q3%23Q3 5 Wind 2023Q3 90 2023Q3 6233.17+4.52%-7.34%498.57+1.00%-34.76%460.68+4.38%-35.41%1375.04+4.38%-0.07%90.74-14.02%-10.55%79.94-9.17%-6.33%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3%2023Q3 6 Wind 2023Q3 2.55%0.51pct 31 13.68%12.62%12.06%10.91%5.39%2.55%14 2023Q2+4.41pct+1.09pct+0.63pct+0.43pct+0.35pct-1.99pct-1.71pct-1.01pct 2023Q 2023Q3 2023Q3 7 Wind 2023Q3 2015 25%-1.08%2015-0.03%2023 AI AI AIGC AI AI 2023Q3 8 Wind 2023Q3 2023Q3 197.02 160.69 124.65 2023Q3 71%AI 7 AI/PCB 7 55%10 2023Q3 2023Q2 2023Q1 1 197.02-33.30%201.83%398.52 2 160.69-59.68%52.66%295.39 3 124.65-37.70%251.58%200.07 4 124.36-26.84%57.14%169.98 5 PCB 75.12-6.30%46.92%153.89 6 65.38-41.02%187.38%127.20 7 51.46-51.02%-46.54%110.83 8 44.56-64.98%461.30%105.05 9 37.11-75.88%-4.53%87.01 10 25.04-49.07%-57.73%80.17 1.2.AI 3.4.&9 10 Wind 2023Q1-3 7756+7.20%2817+6.71%3811+6.50%+7.2%+5.4%+6.4%1055 7.08%76+10.92%271+10.42%2023Q3+5.84%-9.21%+5.09%-39.46%2 27.58%+1.51pp-2.61pp 2019-2023Q1-3 2019-23Q1-3(2)0246810120100020003000400050006000700080009000100002019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-3%-15-10-505101520253002004006008001000120014002019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-3%11 2022 22 CAPEX 3519(+4%)1852+0.87%925+6.7%742+7.5%2023 1832-1.1%452+34.9%3.6pct 24.7%990+7.0%40%380 38.4%769+3.6%149+20.2%5G 2022 5G 960 51.8%2023 5G 830 36 5G 2023 315 122 2014-2022 2022/2022 2023E 2022 2023E 1852 1832 335 452 925 990 271 380 742 769 124 149 3519 3591 730 981 2022&2023E-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%05001000150020002500300035004000450050002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E+%12 GSMA 5G 40 5G 20182020 20212023 2024 GSMA 5G 13 2023Q3 22 23Q3 META 358.13-6.05%+9.87%Microsoft FY24 Q1 99.17+57.84%+10.89%FY23 Q4 FY 24-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%050100150200250300350400450Amazon Microsoft Google Meta%ChatGPT AI iphone 14 ChatGPT4 17.6 2%SimilarWeb DuckDuckGo 5 100 2 1 APP 2023 GTC CEO AI AI ChatGPT AI iPhone ChatGPT GH200 15 2023 5 29 AI NVIDIA CEO COMPUTEX 2023 AI NVIDIA GH200 Grace Hopper NVIDIA NVLink Switch System NVIDIA DGX AI IT GH200 16 2017 79%2022 62%Arista 2018 Arista 2017 2022 515 541 Arista 10 27 363 717 38 102 WIND 17 2022 Arista 58%79%2022 3477 Arista 1332 305 468 113 2022 WIND 18 2B 2B 2C AR PCB 73%TOSA()ROSA()TOSA 48%;ROSA 32%19 Ofweek LightCounting 2022 TOP10 2010 WTD 2022 Coherent TOP10 Cisco Acacia Intel 2021 Lightcounting 5 CAGR14%2026 176 5G Yole 2022 33 22%OFweek ofweek Wind Lightcounting 2021 TOP10 800G 20 LightCounting 2021 46 25%AI Omdia 100 200 400 Gbit/s 800 Gbit/s 2023 2025 2021 Lightcounting 800G MSA 2016-2026 AI LPO CPO 21 LPO linear drive pluggable optics Linear Driver DSP CDR DSP DSP Co-packaged optics(CPO)CPO switch LPO CPO Lightcounting ficonTEC 22 2020 343.8 19.0%2016-2020 9.6%2025 574.2 2020-2025 10.8%27.2%2020 61.7%20.0%16.1%97.8%1.6%2.3%/23 IC 1 Freiberger Sumitomo Sumitomo JX 2 IQE IDM 3 IC IDM IDM Fabless house 4 LED Yole GCS 2021 Broadcom VLC Intengent Alta Devices MEMS 1.2.AI 3.4.&24 /25 IEEE 26 ITU 7 L S C Ku Ka C Ka 5G EHF(Q/V/W)400-2000 6 2029 5.7 UCS 63%3%10%24%L S C X Ku Ka Q 27 SIA 2021 65%2021 1816 24.28%2017-2021 11.98%2019 682 2020 723 2023 900 2021 614.9 113 29.8 2017-2023 2017-2021 SIA 0200400600800100012002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023EADAS/28 2025 135.4 2019 64.5%2025 1 ADAS 25.8%34.0%2 31.8%Frost&Sullivan 2017-2025E 2019/2025E 2025E 2019 2025E 29 ittbank MEMS AI 30 2021 ABI Research 2026 231 2021 M2M 38%Counterpoint 2021 POS/CPE PC 245%124%/CPE 112%2021 2 3 36.5%2020 Counterpoint 2021 2.8%6 2021 10%Wind Counterpoint 2021 ABI Research 31 2018 101.80 2020 144.20 19.02%32 CVD 5G Yole 1.2.AI 3.4.&33 AI 34 1 1 2 3 4 5 PCB 6&7 7 2 AI AI 1 GPU AI 2 100G 400G 800G 1.6T 3 LPO CPO 3 4 1 AI 2 3 4 AIoT 5 6 35 Wind 20231127 WIND 23 PE x 23 23 600941.SH 88.80 18993 14.0 1355.68 8.06%36.95%000063.SZ 26.11 1249 12.7 98.72 22.18%2.27%000938.SZ 20.57 588 25.1 23.48 8.81%5.43%301165.SZ 39.10 222 38.2 5.82 5.78%16.23%600498.SH 18.42 218 40.9 5.34 31.59%41.01%301191.SZ 95.98 67 31.7 2.10 7.35%77.04%&600487.SH 12.70 313 14.4 21.83 37.86%-15.21%&600522.SH 13.57 463 12.6 36.68 14.13%-15.43%300747.SZ 25.42 144 50.7 2.84 594.42%7.85%002008.SZ 22.23 234 20.8 11.27-6.86%-12.61%688025.SH 79.83 76 50.4 1.51 96.43%80.49%688498.SH 155.70 132 180.3 0.73-26.97%82.83%688048.SH 69.60 123 159.9 0.77-35.65%-6.13%300308.SZ 97.88 786 42.2 18.61 52.07%262.77%002281.SZ 27.32 217 35.6 6.10 0.21%74.57%300548.SZ 27.53 79 34.4 2.29 17.73%63.91%300620.SZ 49.46 121 128.4 0.95-19.76%96.92%300394.SZ 75.41 298 49.5 6.01 49.15%199.41%000988.SZ 30.31 305 27.3 11.15 23.08%85.35%PCB 002916.SZ 73.48 377 25.7 14.67-10.50%3.17%PCB 002463.SZ 20.36 388 27.2 14.29 4.96%72.15%300768.SZ 15.45 99 47.0 2.11 41.21%17.94%300628.SZ 32.80 415 19.4 21.36-1.92%-21.26%603236.SH 52.70 139 58.9 2.37-62.01%-25.98%300638.SZ 19.95 153 25.7 5.96 63.61%34.27%688665.SH 79.99 56 31.3 1.79 22.88%-18.33%002139.SZ 9.96 126 19.9 6.33 8.63%-3.44%002049.SZ 73.75 627 20.7 30.21 14.80%-44.05%600702.SH 104.74 349 19.1 18.30 8.60%-33.51%688515.SH 109.02 87-99.7-0.88-53.11%688220.SH 68.10 285-61.7-4.62-83.67%12.21%003031.SZ 92.86 299 142.0 2.11 41.72%-3.57%688686.SH 105.28 129 37.3 3.45 6.22%-19.81%688400.SH 24.65 114 52.4 2.18 16.33%-3.15%688777.SH 41.94 330 30.6 10.77 35.00%-32.50%300762.SZ 17.32 109 60.8 1.79 108.96%31.52%002465.SZ 12.82 318 42.1 7.55 12.97%60.36%300627.SZ 31.78 173 37.0 4.66 29.17%15.41%36 Wind 37 通 信研究 团队：通信行业 首席分 析 师：余伟 民 SAC 执 业 证书 编号：S0850517090006 电 话：010-50949926 Email：通信行业 分析师：于一铭 SAC 执 业 证书编号：S0850523060002 Email：通信行业 分析师：杨彤昕 SAC 执 业 证书编号：S0850522030004 电 话：010-56760095 Email：联系人：夏凡 Email：徐卓 Email：1.6 6 2.A 500 10%-10%10%-10%6 10%-10%10%-10%38
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