资源描述
2 0102030405 ZXDWxOtOpMqRtNpMtOpQqR6M9R9PsQmMoMnOfQrQnMeRmOzQ6MqRsRuOmQuNuOpMrN3 3/CONTENTS010203040506 4 4 5 01 70-90 90-21/PC 1999 2001 2002 2005 2006 2007 2009 2010 2012 2016 2017 2019 2020 90-2170-902021 2022 2023 4000 6/2010 2011 2016 2011 2013 20132015 2017 2019 2021 2019 2019 2020 2021 2010-2019 01 2010 SKU 2011 6 2012 2013 200/2017 2017-19 2010-2019 7 010002000300040002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H12023 10()2020-2022 01 2017 50 2018 100 2019 200 2020 23 6 25 3000 2023 10 11 4000 1 2 30%3 4 2021.2 2021.4 A 2.4 2021.72021.92022.52022.6 8 2020-2022 01 2020 1 2 3 1 2 3 2021 2021.4 2.4 A 2021.4 2021.8 Pre-A 2021.11 A 2022.3 A+2023.5 B 2022.5 2022.11 Pre-A 2023.2 1.5 A 2023.3 1000 A 2023.7 2000 2021 05000100001500020000250002017 2020 2021 2022 2023E()9 2023 01 2023 9 12 9 28 11 10 36 2023 8 9 2023 8 9 2023 9 12 2023 9 28 51%867.75 100%2023 9 30 2023 10 19 2023 10 24 2023 11 10 2023 10 10 11 02 18%-22%30%20-30%()100-120()12000()36(/)3.5-4(/)400()30 18%(/)6.48(/)1.6(/)2.0(/)0.5(/)2.38 6.6%()55()1.9 12 02 30 18%430 380 1.6 2.2 15%430 380 2.7 4.4 15%16%17%18%19%20%21%(/)380 3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%390 3.3%4.3%5.3%6.3%7.3%8.3%9.3%400 3.6%4.6%5.6%6.6%7.6%8.6%9.6%410 3.9%4.9%5.9%6.9%7.9%8.9%9.9%420 4.2%5.2%6.2%7.2%8.2%9.2%10.2%430 4.4%5.4%6.4%7.4%8.4%9.4%10.4%()15%16%17%18%19%20%21%(/)380 4.4 3.3 2.7 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.5390 3.9 3.0 2.5 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.4400 3.5 2.8 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3410 3.2 2.5 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.3420 2.9 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.2430 2.7 2.2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.1 13 02 SKU 100 8 5 200 600800-2500 200 800 2000 3000 3 5:1500 5000 14 02 SKU 1200 1600-2000 SKU/1/30%10%70%30%+2 10%+30%1115%40%10%30%18%30%0 0.5 1 1.5 2()/()15 02 1 SKU 2 012345()/1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6(/1.6 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.61.8 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.92.0 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.32.2 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.3 3.92.4 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.3 3.9 4.72.6 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.3 3.9 4.7 5.9 16 16 17 03 100 23 11 500()4000+()4000+2500+2300 2000+1500 1400 1300 600+600 500 500 500 400+18 03 4000 2000 23 11 500 4000+2000+1000-2000 500-1000 19 03 23 23 7 8.8 7.2 5.8 5.5 500 20 03 300 300 100-200 60%0%20%40%60%80%100%21 03 500 22 22 23 04 CVS O2O SKU 24 04 2012-2017 6 18 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%0500100015002000250020122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 yoy 2018 0%20%40%60%80%05101520122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 yoy 2018 0500100015002000 2014 2015 2016 20172018 2019 2020 2021/=/25 04 5000 0-3000 3000 2.2 2.2 6/4000 2023 2 2024 3+()()(/)6604 3000()2.26604 6000()1.1+80879 36763 26960 20220 2.2 3.0 4.0 22427 10194 5607 3738 2.2 4.0 6.0+22767 10349 4553 2277 2.2 5.0 10.0()8300 0 0 0/60306 40120 29234 26 04/1 2 3 22 3.2%23H1 2.7%2022 23H1 2023H1 2022 1.86 0.43 27.86 12.15 0.76 0.38 2.7%3.2%27 27 28 05 SKU Costco ALDI 10-15%TJX Daiso Seria Watts 30%+40%+2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Costco 13.3%13.3%13.0%13.0%13.1%12.9%12.1%26.6%26.4%25.9%27.9%28.6%29.1%29.7%TJX 29.0%28.9%28.6%28.5%23.7%28.5%27.6%Dollar general 30.8%30.8%30.5%30.6%31.8%31.6%31.2%Dollar Tree 30.9%31.6%30.4%29.8%30.5%29.4%31.5%Seria 42.9%43.2%43.3%43.3%43.3%43.4%41.9%Watts 37.5%37.9%38.0%37.6%38.3%38.7%38.2%29 05 1 SKU 2 2720264402040602019.6 2020.6 2021.10 2022.6 2023.6()ALDI 2021 10 2022 5 31 40 2023 6 28 2023 6 30 68 30 05 70-2009 17%+/POP 31 05 70 GDP 1978 1989 1998 2002 2006 GMS 2019 PPIH 2023 2022 6-2023 7 PPIH 19368 980 662 33 31.0%3.4%1978-1988 1978 1989-20012002-2005 2006-+1980 Just 1989 1996 1998 2000 Picasso2002 2006 2007 2008 GMS 2009 Jonetsu Kakaku 2017 DONDON DONKI 2018 UNY2019 PPIH 2021 PPIC Kakaku 32 05 2006 10 2023 11 720 1+2 700 2023 11 10 Don Quijote 251 35%MEGA MEGA 140 19%MEGA UNY UNY 63 9%Picasso Nagasakiya 31 4%Apita Piago 131 18%2008 Don Quijote MARUKAI TIMES Gelsons66 9%2006 DON DON DONKI 38 5%616 86%104 14%720 33 05 600 1+2023 2.5-3.5/131.6-179.2/2022 2021-2022H1 1.6/106.3/2023 9.1-9.6/118.4-245.0/2022 FY2023 2022/7/1-2023/6/30 FY2023/11333 58.5%6.9%0.7 3.6%35.4 6.9%1.18 4177 21.6%-2.8%0.5-0.6%26 1.6%1.61 699 3.6%-3.0%2336 12.1%16.8%1.9 16.3%48.4 16.2%1.82 823 4.3%18.9%1.8-13.4%23.4 20.0%1.04 19368 5.8%1.36 34 05 600+/ApitaPiago MEGA UNYPicasso MEGA(50)(20)/SKU 1000-3000 4-6 25.6%MEGA 8000-10000 6-10 14.2%MEGA 3000-5000 4-8 15.8%UNY 4000-5000 5-613.7%MEGA UNY 5000-13000 7-10Picasso 300-1000 1-21.1%0.1%Apita Piago 1000-15000 0.8-8 29.5%300-15000 SKU 0.8-10 FY22 35 05+/POP&Battle POP CV D A+POP CV D A Convenience Discount Amusement 36 05/FY2023 1/2 FY2025 25%,26.9%,15.5%,7.8%,4.3%,3.2%,15.1%,3.8%,2.5%,12.1%,4.3%,3.6%12.1%4.3%21.6%15.1%58.5%26.9%40%-50%30%15%-20%35%-40%50%-60%40%+17%+15%-20%25%+/1 23 50%2 1/3 2009 25%+FY2025 25%27.5%37 05 PPIH/seven&i/FY1996PPIH 2008 2002 PPIH FY2002-2023 CAGR CAGR PPIH PPIH 020004000600080001000012000FY1996FY1997FY1998FY1999FY2000FY2001FY2002FY2003FY2004FY2005FY2006FY2007FY2008FY2009FY2010FY2011FY2012FY2013FY2014FY2015FY2016FY2017FY2018FY2019FY2020FY2021FY2022FY2023PPIH seven&i seven&i-5050150250350FY1996FY1997FY1998FY1999FY2000FY2001FY2002FY2003FY2004FY2005FY2006FY2007FY2008FY2009FY2010FY2011FY2012FY2013FY2014FY2015FY2016FY2017FY2018FY2019FY2020FY2021FY2022FY2023PPIH seven&i seven&i FY2002-FY2023 CAGR CAGRPPIH 14%15%10%12%12%18%seven&i 6%6%6%PPIH 2002 38 05 PPIH seven&i PPIH seven&i ROE PPIH-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%PPIH seven&i seven&i 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%PPIH seven&i seven&i-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%FY1996FY1998FY2000FY2002FY2004FY2006FY2008FY2010FY2012FY2014FY2016FY2018FY2020FY2022PPIH seven&i seven&i PPIH PPIH 2009 ROE 39 05PPIH 1998 PPIH 53 225 1.2 seven&i 2012 PPIH seven&i PPIH PPIH PPIH-50X0X50X100X150X200X250X300X350X400X450X1998-61999-62000-62001-62002-62003-62004-62005-62006-62007-62008-62009-62010-62011-62012-62013-62014-62015-62016-62017-62018-62019-62020-62021-62022-62023-6PPIH 225-1X0X1X2X3X-20X0X20X40X60X1998-61999-62000-62001-62002-62003-62004-62005-62006-62007-62008-62009-62010-62011-62012-62013-62014-62015-62016-62017-62018-62019-62020-62021-62022-62023-6PPIH 225seven&i seven&i 40 40 41 06 Wind Wind 2023 11 27 EPS CAGR PEPEGPS 22A 23E 24E 2022-24 22A 23E 24E 22A 23E 24E002847.SZ 157 1.54 2.59 3.42 49%52 31 23 0.5 5.4 3.8 3.0 003000.SZ 57 0.28 0.41 0.54 40%46 31 23 0.6 3.9 2.8 2.3 002991.SZ 73 1.70 3.12 4.00 54%46 25 20 0.4 5.0 3.6 2.8-42 061 2 3 43 E-mail:03 THANKS FORLISTENING
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