资源描述
|2023 11 29 2024 2024 2023 2024 1 2024 13.5 14.5 17.3 1823 2 3 4 S0680523070007 S0680523070008 1 2023-11-26 2 2023-11-19 3 10 2023-11-12-32%-16%0%16%2022-11 2023-03 2023-07 2023-11 300 2023 11 29 P.2 2024.4.5.5.8.10.10.14.16.16.18.20.22.22 1 2024.4 2 2023 1-11.5 3 6-10.5 4 2023 1-9 15%.5 5.6 6.6 7 2023 16.6 8 2023.7 9 2021-2022.7 10 2023.7 11 2023.7 12 2024/.7 13 8.8 14 1-8 53.08 11%.8 15.8 16 2023.8 17 2023Q3.9 18.9 19 9M.9 20 10M.9 21 2023 1-8 3774.6.10 22 2023 8.10 23 2023/24 2.85 1%.10 24 5.10 25 23/24.11 26 23/24.11 YWFUxOmRnOmNqOsRnQqPnM6MaO8OoMpPoMnOjMmNpOkPsQxO7NnMmPvPnRvNuOtRsQ 2023 11 29 P.3 27 2023 0.9%.11 28 2023.11 29 2023.12 30.12 31 2023 6-7.12 32 2023.13 33 2023 1-10.13 34/.13 35 23/24.13 36 23/24.13 37.14 38 23/24.14 39 23/24.14 40.15 41 2021 3 2023 11.16 42.16 43 SW.16 44.17 45.17 46 2023.17 47 2023.17 48 2023.18 49 2023.18 50 2019 1.18 51 2023.18 52 2023.19 53 2023.19 54 2019 1.19 55.19 56.20 57.20 58.20 59.21 60.21 61 2022.21 62 2022.21 2023 11 29 P.4 2024 2023 2024 2024 3 1 2024 Q113-13.5Q214-15Q317-18Q420-23|/2023 11 29 P.5 2023 15.6/14.5/16.1/Q1 8 17.3/7 14.11/2 2023 1-11 iFind 2023 2023 6-10 1-9 3-3 1-4%1-9 2.4 15%1719%3 6-10 4 2023 1-9 15%iFind iFind 13.128.014.117.310.012.014.016.018.020.022.024.026.028.030.0Jan-02 Feb-02 Mar-02 Apr-02 May-02 Jun-02 Jul-02 Aug-02 Sep-02 Oct-02 Nov-02 Dec-02/2022 20230.05.010.015.020.025.030.035.040.0-50-40-30-20-1001020304050602016-01 2018-01 2020-01 2022-01/%(10M)-(6M)-05001000150020002500300035001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2023 11 29 P.6 5 iFind 2022 5 10 2023 2023 2023 124.7 120-122 93-94 90-91 122 0.9%121 3%6 7 2023 16 iFind 2023 7 25.9%2022 23.9%11 24.6%6.9pct 1%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%2019/03 2019/09 2020/03 2020/09 2021/03 2021/09 2022/03 2022/09 2023/03 2023/093Q 2Q 11011512012513013501 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 202380828486889092949601 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 122019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2023 11 29 P.7 8 2023 9 2021-2022 Wind 10 2023 11 2023 iFind iFind 2024 2024 1 2024 MSY 18.8 2 2024Q1-Q4 123 120 120 122 3 2023Q4 2024Q1 2.1%5.5%4 16.0/2024 4 13.5/kg 14.5/kg 17.3/kg 20.5/kg Q4 23/18/12 2024/2024Q1 2024Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 13.5 14.5 17.3 23 20.5 18 010203040506001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12%2019 2020 2021 2022 202319.77 20.04 20.14 19.62 20.11 22.83 20.28 18.20 25.20 26.90 0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%2023-02 2023-04 2023-06 2023-08 2023-102 6062646668707274767880Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2023 11 29 P.8 2021 2023 2023 2021 124.6 8 4728.7 23.5%1-9 59.8 11%13 8 14 1-8 53.08 11%2022 2022 22.7%96.3 10 116.2-17%2022 Q4 148/2023 11 2023 Q1-3 127 125 124.8 Q4 15 16 2023 2023 2023Q3 4667 21.4%7 11.8%2.5/3.8%2500300035004000450050001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122023 2021 20223.504.004.505.005.506.006.507.007.5001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 202360.080.0100.0120.0140.0160.0Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 2020 2021 2022 20232.03.04.05.06.07.08.0050100150200Oct-17 Jan-19 Apr-20 Jul-21 Oct-22 Jan-24()3Q()2023 11 29 P.9 17 2023Q3 18 2024 19 9M 20 10M 2023 1-8 3774.6 4%3 817 2023 8 26%2016 7.5pct 47.2%2016 7.2pct-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%1Q20 3Q20 1Q21 3Q21 1Q22 3Q22 1Q23 3Q23 YoY YoY0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.07.51Q20 3Q20 1Q21 3Q21 1Q22 3Q22 1Q23 3Q23/-5.06.07.08.09.010.011.012.013.05070901101301501702014-10 2016-10 2018-10 2020-10 2022-10/-10M-0.02.04.06.08.010.012.05070901101301501702014-09 2016-09 2018-09 2020-09 2022-09/9M-2023 11 29 P.10 21 2023 1-8 3774.6 22 2023 8 USDA FAS 10 2023/24 2.85 1%7 200 2.22 0.37 5.7%19.4%23 2023/24 2.85 1%24 5 USDA USDA 11 23/24 2.88 4%1.9%6.58 2.1%438/1.5%2.95 677-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%300032003400360038004000420044002013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023.1-8 YoY0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2016 2023 8-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%0501001502002503003502019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24Oct YoY78%13%4%3%2%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2023 11 29 P.11 25 23/24 26 23/24 iFind iFind 2023 2023 1.46 0.9%1.35 92%0.9%USDA 17%10%27 2023 0.9%28 2023 Wind USDA 2200 2000 3700 19.4%100%10%-100%9 11 400/3703803904004104204304404505.25.45.65.866.26.46.66.815/1616/1717/1818/1919/20 20/2121/2222/2323/24/-2,500-2,000-1,500-1,000-50005001,00016/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%1100011500120001250013000135001400014500150002010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 YoY 92%8%2023 11 29 P.12 29 2023 30 USDA iFind 31 2023 6-7 10%8 0 0 g/k g 15%8 0 0 g/k g 5%1 0 0 0 g/k g USDA USDA 9950 1.16 1650 3900 2023 1-10 1083 11%50-60 1200 78.7%4.6%4.6%4.6%3.5%3.5%0.4%-600-400-2000200400600800150017001900210023002500270029003100330035002020-01 2021-01 2022-01 2023-01/-()-()-2023 11 29 P.13 32 2023 33 2023 1-10 iFind iFind 2017 2023 8 9 21 8 1601 1428 2600-2700/2700-2800/34/2021 1500 130 77%2200 2270 2500 2022 1600 130 80%2270 2340 2550 2023 1700 130 80%2400 2420 2650 USDA 23/24 3860+11.1%751+14.4%250+9.3%2100+61.8%23/24 9.44 8.1%21/22 1.8pct 12.2%35 23/24 36 23/24 USDA Wind USDA iFind 00.020.040.060.080.10.120.140.160.180200400600800100012002019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023.1-10 YoY60%19%7%4%1%9%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%400500600700800900100010/1111/1212/1313/1414/1515/1616/1717/1818/1919/2020/2121/2222/2323/24:2023 11 29 P.14 2100/2200/37 iFind 23/24 7.6%4 3.3%112.4 2300+92%500+3.2%23/24 2.3pct 29.8%18/19 38 23/24 39 23/24 USDA iFind USDA iFind USDA 2023 11 11 57.6%8.4pct 80%20002500300035004000Mar-22 Sep-22 Mar-23 Sep-23/20%22%24%26%28%30%32%34%20025030035040045010/11 13/14 16/17 19/20 22/23:2023 11 29 P.15 40 N DJ DJF JFM(MT/HA)YoY(MT/HA)YoY1999/2000-1.7-1.7-1.4 2.6 5%2.5 1%2000/2001-0.7-0.7-0.5 2.8 11%2.7 8%2001/2002-0.3-0.1 0.0 2.7-6%2.6-1%2002/2003 1.1 0.9 0.6 2.8 6%2.8 7%2003/2004 0.4 0.4 0.3 2.4-16%2.4-16%2004/2005 0.7 0.6 0.6 2.3-3%2.7 15%2005/2006-0.8-0.9-0.8 2.6 11%2.7-1%2006/2007 0.9 0.7 0.2 2.9 11%3.0 12%2007/2008-1.6-1.6-1.5 2.9 0%2.8-6%2008/2009-0.7-0.8-0.8 2.7-7%2.0-29%2009/2010 1.6 1.5 1.2 2.9 11%2.9 47%2010/2011-1.6-1.4-1.2 3.1 6%2.7-9%2011/2012-1.0-0.9-0.7 2.7-14%2.3-15%2012/2013-0.2-0.4-0.4 3.0 11%2.5 10%2013/2014-0.3-0.4-0.5 2.9-3%2.8 11%2014/2015 0.7 0.5 0.5 3.0 6%3.2 15%2015/2016 2.6 2.5 2.1 2.9-5%3.0-4%2016/2017-0.6-0.3-0.2 3.4 18%3.2 4%2017/2018-1.0-0.9-0.9 3.5 4%2.3-27%2018/2019 0.8 0.7 0.7 3.4-4%3.3 44%2019/2020 0.5 0.5 0.5 3.5 4%2.9-12%2020/2021-1.2-1.0-0.9 3.5 1%2.8-4%2021/2022-1.0-1.0-0.9 3.1-11%2.8-2%2022/2023-0.8-0.7-0.4 3.6 14%1.7-37%ONIYear NOAA USDA 2023 11 29 P.16 2023 41 2021 3 2023 11 Wind 2023 11 27 2023 2023 1-10 227/2021 6 2022 6 277/2021 6 2023 10 68/SW 2023 68.3%2 42 43 SW iFind Wind 11.8%97.1%152.6%155.5%05101520253035-100.0%-50.0%0.0%50.0%100.0%150.0%200.0%2021-03-01 2021-06-01 2021-09-01 2021-12-01 2022-03-01 2022-06-01 2022-09-01 2022-12-01 2023-03-01 2023-06-01 2023-09-01/-21.3 21.9 3 21Q3 20/kg+10 11/kg 21.922.3 9-10 123 22.422.6 22.622.10 2 7 10 2 22.1023.3 23.323.11-2,000-1,00001,0002,0003,0004,000Nov-17 Feb-19 May-20 Aug-21 Nov-22/:30354045505560657075Mar-17 Mar-19 Mar-21 Mar-23%SW 2023 11 29 P.17 2023 4240 2022 3.4%44 45 iFind Wind iFind 2023 2024 46 2023 47 2023 ifind Wind ifind Wind-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%1M23 2M23 3M23 4M23 5M236M23 7M23 8M23 9M23-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,000Mar-18Aug-18Jan-19Jun-19Nov-19Apr-20Sep-20Feb-21Jul-21Dec-21May-22Oct-22Mar-23Aug-23 QoQ YoY567891011-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%2023-01 2023-04 2023-07 2023-10/-024681012141618-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%2023-01 2023-04 2023-07 2023-10/-2023 11 29 P.18 2023 2.33 5.3%1.07 10.3%46%6882 2386 4.9%0.2%1876 9.3%3.0%10.4%48 2023 49 2023 10.3%9.5%9.1%12.6%2022 Q1 3 0.5%1.8%2.1%2.4%6.7%1.5%2022 Q4 Q4 Q2 Q2 50 2019 1 51 2023 10.6%0.1%2024 45.8%29.6%10.3%8.1%5.2%0.4%0.7%5.3%10.3%4.9%0.2%-9.3%3.0%10.4%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%2023 1-9 10.3%9.5%9.1%12.6%5%6%7%8%9%10%11%12%13%2023Q1-3 2023 11 29 P.19 52 2023 53 2023 iFind 2023 1-10 4971 7%54 2019 1 55 Wind iFind 80859095100105110115120125130Mar-11 Mar-14 Mar-17 Mar-20 Mar-23-9.30%-10.60%-0.10%-12%-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2023Q1-3 020040060080010001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 20230.05.010.015.020.025.030.035.040.0-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%400%2013-03 2014-06 2015-09 2016-12 2018-03 2019-06 2020-09 2021-12 2023-03/-2023 11 29 P.20 2023 10 17 37 14 59%22%958 968 605 303 56 DBN9936 19 125 9 ND207 4 DBN9858 1 DBN3601T 2 Bt11 GA21 1 Bt11 MIR162 GA21 1 57 DBN9004 5 6106 9 1 2025 58 10%25-30%2023 11 29 P.21 59 2022 CR5 12%60 61 2022 62 2022 AgbioInvestor 4%3%2%2%1%88%22%20%10%4%4%4%3%1%1%1%30%2023 11 29 P.22 2023 11 29 P.23“”,“”“”6 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%5%10%-10%+10%10%8 7 7 100077 868 One56 1 10 200120 021-38124100 1115 330038 0791-86281485 100 24 518033
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