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2009 1210 2023 12 1 2024 2024 1 2023 799.57 14.26%2003 2 2022 11 2024 3 1 178 2023-2025 4.47%1.58%2.65%2 2024+2023-2025 177 104 84 3 2023-2025 6.7%2.2%3.0%70 17 1 4 2023 2024 2024 5 2024 1 2023 2024 2024 71 2 2024-2025 2023-2025 76/98/228 2 3 Wood Mackenzie 2024 204.2 7.69%19.9 10.8%4 2024 2025 2024-2025 16.0 17.9 5 2024 S0360522120003 S0360522120002 S0360522120001%()125 0.02()24,125.23 2.73()20,809.37 3.03%1M 6M 12M-3.3%-5.7%-12.8%-0.9%3.2%-3.5%2024 2023-11-30 20231120-20231124 2023-11-26 20231113-20231117 2023-11-19-15%-6%3%12%22/11 23/02 23/04 23/07 23/09 23/112022-11-302023-11-30 300 2024 2009 1210 2 EPS PE PB 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 12.18 0.82 0.93 1.19 14.79 13.14 10.26 3.09 35.09 1.65 3.13 3.63 21.24 11.22 9.66 3.01 15.77 2.51 2.91 3.01 6.29 5.42 5.25 1.87 6.04 0.49 0.67 0.87 12.34 9.08 6.95 1.14 14.80 0.56 0.61 0.65 26.39 24.13 22.81 3.56 10.77 0.63 0.72 0.78 17.18 14.95 13.73 1.93 2.88 0.25 0.29 0.32 11.51 10.03 8.95 0.74 Wind 2023 11 30 XVBYwPmRtQmNoQsRtOtMqRbRcM8OnPrRoMoNjMmNmOlOnNoP8OmNqMMYoMnQxNoPpN 2024 2009 1210 2023 2024 2022 2024 2024 96.5%2023-2025 4.47%1.58%2.65%2024 2023-2025 4870 4978 5130 6.7%2.2%3.0%70 17 1 2024 2024 2023 2024 2024 71 2024-2025 2023-2025 76/98/228 2 2024 2023 2024 2025 2024-2025 16.0 17.9 2024 2024 2009 1210 4 2024.7.7.8 1.8 2.9 3 2024.11 4.12.13.14 2024.14.15 2024.19.20 2024.23 2023.23 1.23 2.24 3.24 2024.27 1.27 2.29 3.30 4 2024 2025.33 2024.35.36.37 2024 2009 1210 5 1.7 2 2015 TIPS.7 3.7 4 2023.7 5.8 6.9 7 CPI CPI PCE PCE%.9 8.10 9.10 10 CPI.10 11.10 12.11 13.11 14 CPI 2.5%.12 15.12 16 10 TIPS 10.12 17.13 18.13 19 COMEX.13 20.14 21.14 22.15 23 2022-2024E.16 24.16 25%.17 26.17 27.18 28.19 29.20 30.20 31.20 32.20 33 SHFE LME.23 2024 2009 1210 6 34 LME.24 35 SHFE.24 36(/).24 37(/).24 38.25 39.25 40.25 41.25 42.26 43.26 44 2023 1-9.26 45/.26 46.26 47.27 48.27 49.27 50.27 51.28 52 TC/.29 53.29 54.29 55.30 56.31 57%.31 58 IMF GDP.32 59.32 60.32 61.32 62 2023.33 63.33 64 kt.33 65 11“”.35 66 CPI 2.5%.36 67.36 2024 2009 1210 7 2024 2022 2023 799.57 14.26%2003 2022 2023 1-3 799.57 14.26%2003 1 2 2015 TIPS Wind Wind 2022 Q3 39%2022 Q3 458.77 1205 39%2023 799.57 22%3 4 2023 Wind Wind 1,0001,1001,2001,3001,4001,5001,6001,7001,8001,9002,000-500.00-400.00-300.00-200.00-100.000.00100.002015-122016-052016-102017-032017-082018-012018-062018-112019-042019-092020-022020-072020-122021-052021-102022-032022-082023-012023-06(+)/(-)()COMEX(/,)1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,0002,200-1.50-1.00-0.500.000.501.001.502.002015-122016-052016-102017-032017-082018-012018-062018-112019-042019-092020-022020-072020-122021-052021-102022-032022-082023-012023-06 10(%)COMEX(/,)-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%-100.000.00100.00200.00300.00400.00500.002011-122012-062012-122013-062013-122014-062014-122015-062015-122016-062016-122017-062017-122018-062018-122019-062019-122020-062020-122021-062021-122022-062022-122023-06()18%6%43%22%11%2024 2009 1210 8 5 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 2021 2022 2023 1-9 4,441.27 4,785.01 4,662.58 4,775.94 4,736.01 4,707.27 4,751.88 3,692.38 3,361.31 3,515.24 3,575.71 3,655.87 3,482.04 3,576.47 3,624.83 2,743.93 12.88 37.64-25.53-11.64-39.07-5.36-13.12 24.75 1,067.07 1,232.14 1,112.40 1,131.70 1,293.05 1,136.16 1,140.17 923.71 4,441.27 4,785.01 4,662.58 4,775.94 4,736.01 4,707.27 4,751.88 3,692.38 967.34 1,616.11 1,314.98 1,160.86 1,794.40 990.56 1,113.05 686.92 331.68 322.99 332.59 334.79 302.75 330.20 308.75 215.82 2,479.23 2,018.77 2,257.47 2,290.01 1,323.96 2,230.34 2,195.34 1,583.39 579.56 394.86 378.55 656.24 254.95 450.11 1,081.88 799.57 83.48 432.26 378.98 334.04 1,059.96 706.09 52.84 406.68 Wind 2022 TIPS TIPS 2022 3-1.19%11 1.74%2018 11 1.18%1700/2018 1200/2022 10 2022 1.5%2023 10 4.98%1 CME 2022 11 2 2024 2009 1210 9 6 CME Wind 2 CPI 10 CPI 3.2%2022 6 9.1%CPI CPI CPI/1-1.5 7 CPI CPI PCE PCE%Wind 1700.001750.001800.001850.001900.001950.002000.002050.002100.00300.00350.00400.00450.00500.00550.00 2024 6 FOMC(bp)COMEX(/,)0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.0010.002018-012018-032018-052018-072018-092018-112019-012019-032019-052019-072019-092019-112020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-09:CPI:CPI:PCE:PCE:2024 2009 1210 10 8 9 Wind Wind 10 CPI 11 Wind San Francisco Fed 9 10/S&P/CS 2022 4 21.3%0%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%2728293031323334352020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-062023-082023-10()()0.000.501.001.502.002.5002468101214162012-012012-082013-032013-102014-052014-122015-072016-022016-092017-042017-112018-062019-012019-082020-032020-102021-052021-122022-072023-022023-09/()(%)(%)-25-20-15-10-50510152025-2-101234567892001-012002-022003-032004-042005-052006-062007-072008-082009-092010-102011-112012-122014-012015-022016-032017-042018-052019-062020-072021-082022-09:CPI:(%):CPI:(%):/CS:20:(%,)2024 2009 1210 11 12 Wind higher longer hold hold higher longer 2023 11 9 2023 12 90.2%13 Bloomberg 3 2024 CPI 2.5%3-4 0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.00.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0(%)(%)2000 1-2020 3 2020 4-2022 5 2022 6 2024 2009 1210 12 14 CPI 2.5%15 Bloomberg,CME Fedwatch 4 2003 2007 7 2008 11 2019 7 2020 3 2022 16 10 TIPS 10 Wind 05001,0001,5002,0002,500-2.00-1.000.001.002.003.004.005.006.00(bp)10 TIPS(bp)10(bp)COMEX(/,)2024 2009 1210 13 17 Wind comex 18 19 COMEX Wind Wind 2024 80.0085.0090.0095.00100.00105.00110.00115.00120.001,4001,5001,6001,7001,8001,9002,0002,1002020-01-012020-03-012020-05-012020-07-012020-09-012020-11-012021-01-012021-03-012021-05-012021-07-012021-09-012021-11-012022-01-012022-03-012022-05-012022-07-012022-09-012022-11-012023-01-012023-03-012023-05-012023-07-012023-09-012023-11-01COMEX(/)6.206.406.606.807.007.207.403003203403603804004204404604805002020-01-01 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2023-01-01SHFE()6.206.406.606.807.007.207.401,4001,5001,6001,7001,8001,9002,0002,1002020-01-01 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2023-01-01COMEX(/)()2024 2009 1210 14 2024 2023 10 4306.8 4500 200 13 12 7 2023 9 43 20 11 72 178 4484.8 20 Wind 21 Wind 2023-2025 4182 4248 4361 178.8 66.1 112.5 4.47%1.58%2.65%2024 2009 1210 15 22 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 13 0.0 6.5 6.5 0.0 6 0.0 3.0 3.0 0.0 3.2 0.0 1.6 1.6 0.0 2.8 0.0 1.4 1.4 0.0 43 0.0 0.0 21.5 21.5 7 0.0 0.0 2.0 5.0 75 0 12.5 36 26.5 20 0.0 1.7 18.3 0.0 11 0.0 5.5 5.5 0.0 17 0.0 10.6 6.4 0.0 35 0.0 0.0 17.5 17.5 20 1.7 18.3 0.0 0.0 103 1.7 36.1 47.7 17.5 178 1.7 48.6 83.7 44 0.0 17.5 28.8 28.8 4182 4248 4361 4433 178.8 66.1 112.5 72.8 4.47%1.58%2.65%1.67%SMM 25%SMM 2024 22%23%23%8%9%12%3%2024 2009 1210 16 23 2022-2024E SMM 2023 2024 2023 2023 1-10 19.0%2021 6 3 2024 24 Wind 2024 2023 18%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%0.000.501.001.502.002.503.002017-022017-052017-082017-112018-022018-052018-082018-112019-022019-052019-082019-112020-022020-052020-082020-112021-022021-052021-082021-112022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-052023-08()()2024 2009 1210 17 25%Wind+0.7/GW 2022 0.64/GW 2023-2025 5%8%8%180kg/2023-2025 554 658 742 47%19%13%177 104 84 26 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E()354 706 870 1100 1300(kg/)180 180 180 180 180()64 127 157 198 234(GW)182 297 460 550 650(/GW)0.65 0.64 0.61 0.56 0.51()118 189 278 306 333(GW)55 87 170 220 250(/GW)0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7()38.5 60.9 119 154 175()157 250 397 460 508()221 377 554 658 742 71%47%19%13%()157 177 104 84 Wind SMM 2023-2025 4870 4978 5130 6.7%2.2%3.0%70 17 1-60.00-40.00-20.000.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00140.002018-022018-052018-082018-112019-022019-052019-082019-112020-022020-052020-082020-112021-022021-052021-082021-112022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-052023-08:2024 2009 1210 18 27 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 4003 4182 4248 4361 yoy 4.5%1.6%2.6%48 109 71 71 877 923 979 1037 4928 5214 5299 5469 yoy 5.8%1.6%3.2%396 274 337 337 4564 4870 4978 5130 yoy 6.7%2.2%3.0%1114 1129 1100 1056 yoy 1.4%-2.6%-4.0%24.4%23.2%22.1%20.6%1063 1136 1162 1227 yoy 6.8%2.3%5.6%23.3%23.3%23.3%23.9%127 157 198 234 yoy 23.3%26.4%18.2%936 979 964 993 yoy 4.6%-1.6%3.0%913 1077 1163 1239 yoy 18.0%8.0%6.5%20.0%22.1%23.4%24.2%250 397 460 508 yoy 58.9%15.8%10.4%663 680 703 731 yoy 2.6%3.4%4.0%548 564 573 593 yoy 3.0%1.6%3.5%12.0%11.6%11.5%11.6%351 362 367 384 yoy 3.0%1.5%4.5%7.7%7.4%7.4%7.5%434 461 467 481 yoy 6.3%1.4%3.0%9.5%9.5%9.4%9.4%137 141 145 150 2024 2009 1210 19 yoy 3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%2.9%2.9%2.9%4960 5144 5315 5467 yoy 3.7%3.3%2.9%-32 70-17 1 Wind SMM 2024 2023 2022 Q5500 1168.5/2023 6 13 751.0/35.73%2023 11 17 936.0/19.90%2023 2023 11 17 5410/37.31%41.15%SMM 2023 1-10 16536/8.1%2110/9%2024 2023 9 36.9%34.7%13.5%2024 2024 2024 28 SMM 2024 2009 1210 20 29 30 SMM Wind 31 32 Wind Wind 2023-2025 70 17 1 2024 170/80/90/2000MW 56/8/13.29 6.12 855 2023 70.42 2,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5002020-01-04 2021-01-04 2022-01-04 2023-01-04(/)(/)02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,800(Q5500)(/)2,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00010,000(/)2024 2009 1210 21 0.09 0.84-0.67 6 350MW 60 250 120 6 2 4 30 20 2 7 20 12 16 15 IATF16949 75 57 225 50.19 25 50 37.44 25 57 12 69 2023 14%1 29%8 20 20 2023 2022 12 2023 3 33.6 2022 140 305 80 2 157 2018 163.84 2022 267.31 2025 90%88.6%5200 2024 2009 1210 22 2022 22.90 2.45 17.58 77%0.98 40%2020 2022 1355 48%昇 200 2018 1,351 2022 1,764 40%18%13%2023 2024 2009 1210 23 2024 2023 1 2023 2023 11 6 LME 3 8,247/-1.52%67,590/2.01%12.45%33 SHFE LME Wind 2022 11 2022 3 6 27 75 2022 3 10845 7 6955 36%23%11 75 2022 11 7444 2023 1 9354 26%37%2023 5 6.92 8 7.18 3.56%70600/1 6 8 10%2024 2009 1210 24 34 LME 35 SHFE Wind Wind 2 2023 Cobre Panama 2023 2023 1 18.51 2022 12 18.24%2023 1 43.21 2022 12 12.86%Quellaveco Antapaccay Las Bambas Cerro Verde 2023 1-8 18.24%2023 1-9 1.91%ICSG 2023 1.9%1.3%2.9%36(/)37(/)Wind Wind 3 2023 1-8 4.7%ICSG 1-8 12%7%1%SMM 2023 1-9 848.6 85.0090.0095.00100.00105.00110.00115.004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00010,00011,00012,0002020-01-01 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2023-01-01LME(/)()6.106.306.506.706.907.107.307.5030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,0002020-01-01 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2023-01-01SHFE(/)()1.201.301.401.501.601.701.801.901 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12(/)2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0.300.350.400.450.500.550.600.650.700.750.801 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12(/)2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2009 1210 25 11.5%9 101.2 38 39 Wind Wind 2023 1-8 1758.80 2.59%ICSG 5%3%2023 1-9 4.3%48.38 1 1-9 87.5 2 1-9 23.0 3 1-9 3.2 4 1-9 17.1 5 1-9 2.0 6 1-9 2.3 1-9 48.38 40 41 Wind Wind-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%0.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.02020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-07()()-4.00%-3.00%-2.00%-1.00%0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%0.00500.001,000.001,500.002,000.002,500.003,000.002018-012018-052018-092019-012019-052019-092020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-05()()150.00170.00190.00210.00230.00250.001 月 2月 3 月 4月 5 月 6月 7 月 8月 9 月 10月 11月 12月全 球 电 解铜月 度消费量(万吨)2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2009 1210 26 42 43 Mysteel Mysteel 44 2023 1-9 Wind 2023 2022 2023 1-9 19.8%41.1%45/(%)46(%)Wind Wind-15.0%-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%0.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00140.00160.002020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-07()()70.0090.00110.00130.00150.001月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8 月 9月 10月 11月 12 月()2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-60.00-40.00-20.000.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.002018-022018-052018-082018-112019-022019-052019-082019-112020-022020-052020-082020-112021-022021-052021-082021-112022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-052023-08:-60.00-40.00-20.000.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00140.002018-022018-062018-102019-022019-062019-102020-022020-062020-102021-022021-062021-102022-022022-062022-102023-022023-06:2024 2009 1210 27 2023 1-9 609 26.7%2023 1-9 33.5GW 74.0%128.9GW 145.1%47 48 Wind Wind 49 50 Wind Wind 2024 1 2023 2024 2023 2023 2023 2024 Udokan OT QB2 TFM Kamoa 2024 2024 71-60.0%-40.0%-20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0002018-022018-062018-102019-022019-062019-102020-022020-062020-102021-022021-062021-102022-022022-062022-102023-022023-06()()-100.0%0.0%100.0%200.0%300.0%400.0%500.0%01002003004005006007008002018-022018-062018-102019-022019-062019-102020-022020-062020-102021-022021-062021-102022-022022-062022-102023-022023-06()()-100.0%-50.0%0.0%50.0%100.0%150.0%200.0%250.0%300.0%0.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.0080.002018-022018-062018-102019-022019-062019-102020-022020-062020-102021-022021-062021-102022-022022-062022-102023-022023-06(GW)()-100.0%-50.0%0.0%50.0%100.0%150.0%200.0%250.0%0.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00140.002018-022018-062018-102019-022019-062019-102020-022020-062020-102021-022021-062021-102022-022022-062022-102023-022023-06(GW)()2024 2009 1210 28 51 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E Udokan Udokan 0 2 10 15 2023 9 2024 1500 15 2028 45 Oyu Tolgoi 13 18 23 34 OT 8.5 2.5 5 BHP Esocondida 102.6 105.5 113 118 120 Quellaveco 10.23 33 35 35 4 2022 7 55 12 24 31-35 QB2 0.96 10 30 30 QB2 2023 11.5 15.36 16.2 24 16 20 2025 35/2030 60 Kamoa 33 43 49 62 45 500/50/2024 62 9.3 12 13.5 15 15-16 18 20 13 12 15 15 2023 11.90 3 450/1989/2280/Lonshi 0.4 1 3 4.5 3.90 87 2.82%2023 9 2024 4 Mirador 12 12 12 19.3 9 2019 2021 11 2025 6 2027 Palabara 2.3 3 5 7 2024 2024 7/Las Bambas 25.6 28.5 28.5 34 Chalcobamba Huancuire 2023 38-40 TFM 0 6 18 20 3 350/330/560/2023 10 20 KFM 0 8 9 9 2023 9 3 2.98 233 309 380 442 76 71 62 2024 2009 1210 29 2 2024-2025 2 TC 2021 4 TC 2023 7 TC 94/2024 2 2022 2023 1-9 848.6 11.5%2023-2025 76 98 228 52 TC/53 Wind Wind 54 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E Olympic Dam 25 25 28 28 28 28 Kamoa Smelter 0 0 2 50 50 50 Adani Smelter 0 0 15 50 50 50 Antam Smelter 0 0 2 35 40 40 Gresik 30 31 34.2 34.2 34.2 34.2 Medco Smelter 0 0 0.5 25 30 30 Khatoon Abad Smelter 15 15 19 19 19 19 Sungun Copper Complex Smelter 0 4 10 12 12 12 Krasnouralsk Smelter(Svyatogor 8.5 8.5 9.5 11 11 11 Nadezhda 10 10 10 10 15 15 Bor Smelter 8 18 18 18 18 18 Palabora Smelter 0 8 8 8 8 8 0.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00140.00160.002007-09-302008-09-302009-09-302010-09-302011-09-302012-09-302013-09-302014-09-302015-09-302016-09-302017-09-302018-09-302019-09-302020-09-302021-09-302022-09-302023-09-30:(25%,TC)74.0076.0078.0080.0082.0084.0086.0088.001,000.001,200.001,400.001,600.001,800.002,000.002,200.002,400.002,600.002,800.003,000.002020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-07()()(%,)2024 2009 1210 30 Almalyk Smelter 15 15 15 29 30 30 Kansanshi Smelter 30 30 30 40 40 40 Fort Wayne Smelter 0 0 0 0.5 4.5 4.5 Richmond 0 0 1.5 3.5 4.5 4.5 Shelby 0 3 5 5 5 5 141.5 167.5 207.7 378.2 399.2 399.2-26 40.2 170.5 21 0 6 6 6 6 6 6 2 32 40 40 40 40 1 11 15 15 15 15 0 2 8 8 8 8 0 3 10 10 10 10 0 5 30 40 40 40 0 0 4 8 8 8 0 0 2 17 30 30 0 0 0 10 30 30 0 0 2 5 5 5 0 0 0 10 30 30 50 0 0 0 5 20 50 9 59 117 174 242 272-50 58 57 68 30 76 98.2 227.5 89 30 3 2024 60 2020 2022-2023 2024 85 5 168 28 122 27 375 2024 60 55 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 22 35 68 88 100 67 92 140 168 200 4
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