20231206_海通证券_食品饮料行业：成本下行在途&需求修复可期关注盈利改善弹性_43页.pdf

SAC S0850520020001 SAC S0850520100001 SAC S0850520050001 2023 12 6&1.2.3.4.5.2 XVDWuNrMsRpOpRtQtOtMrQ9PdN6MsQoOmOtQlOmNoMiNpPrP9PpPyRuOmNmOuOrQmM3 1 2 3 4 23 24 24 23Q3/&1.4 Wind 2023 GDP+4.5%/+6.3%/+4.9%2 CAGR+4.6%/+3.3%/+4.4%23 3-5+10%23 10+7.6%2 CAGR+3.5%19 17.1%23 8 2023 8/9/10+12.4%/+13.8%/+17.1%2 CAGR+10.4%/+5.8%/+3.7%2019 8.2%/12.0%/10.6%1 2019 GDP%2 2019%2.-10-5051015202019-032019-062019-092019-122020-032020-062020-092020-122021-032021-062021-092021-122022-032022-062022-092022-122023-032023-062023-09-60-40-200204060801002019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072023-10:5 1&2 3 4 5&6&3.6 Wind 2015-22 CAGR 2.5%2015-19 CAGR 14.4%2017-19 24 24 3.1 4-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YoY YoY 3 2011 02000400060008000050010001500 7 22 CR3 90%60%29.5%8.8%1935 3.1 5 6 2022,57.5%,29.5%,8.8%,4.1%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%010002000300040005000600070002016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E Wind 17 20-21 8 Wind 2023 11 1 53%vol 20%6 969/1169/200 24/+4.3%/+5.3%3.1 1 2000/1 2001 8 218-2 2003 10 268 22.9%3 2006 2 308 14.9%4 2007 4 358 16.2%5 2008 1 438 22.3%6 2010 1 499 13.9%7 2011 1 619 24.0%8 2012 9 819 32.3%9 2018 1 969 18.3%10 2023 11 1169 20.0%9 23 24 23 23Q1-3/-4.8%/+13.6%/-38.5%24 15-20%3.1 24 23Q1-3 23Q3 23Q1-3 23Q3 600809 20.8%13.6%32.7%27.1%600779-4.8%21.5%-3.1%19.6%600702 13.6%7.9%7.9%3.0%000799-38.5%-36.7%-50.7%-77.7%002304 14.4%11.0%12.5%7.5%603369 28.3%28.0%26.6%26.4%000596 25.0%23.4%45.4%46.8%603198 23.4%21.9%37.6%39.5%603589 18.2%4.7%12.2%8.4%7 8 Wind 2023 50 71 104 158 197 262 316 0501001502002503003502010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 10 Wind 23Q1-3/+14.4%/+28.3%300-500 6+23Q1-3/+25.0%/+23.4%/+18.2%20 16 20 16 16 8 3.1 2 23Q1-3 YoY 23Q3 YoY 23Q1-3 YoY 23Q3 YoY 600809 山西 26744 20.8%7733 13.6%9431 32.7%2664 27.1%002304 江苏宿迁 30283 14.4%8410 11.0%10203 12.5%2341 7.5%603369 江苏高沟 8365 28.3%2395 28.0%2636 26.6%586 26.4%000596 安徽亳州 15953 25.0%4643 23.4%3813 45.4%1033 46.8%603198 安徽六安 4804 23.4%1661 21.9%1655 37.6%591 39.5%603589 安徽淮北 4446 18.2%1533 4.7%1348 12.2%501 8.4%600559 河北 3846 11.3%1614 12.9%418-21.6%201 17.9%603919 甘肃 2019 29.3%496 47.8%273 27.6%18 884.8%600197 新疆 1643 25.8%423 143.9%229 63.9%53 363.8%024681012141618010002000300040005000600018Q118Q218Q318Q419Q119Q219Q319Q420Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q3%11 Wind 19.7%17.2%3.1 9:2018 PE TTM 020000400006000080000100000120000140000160000180000 70.2X 52.6X 35.1X 17.5X 0.0X 10:2018 PB LF 11 2018 020000400006000080000100000120000 13.1X 11.0X 8.9X 6.7X 4.6X12 Wind 3.1 EPS PE PB 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 600519 1772.93 22271.51 49.93 59.11 70.01 35.51 29.99 25.32 11.28 9.36 7.74 000858 157.25 6103.83 6.88 7.79 8.87 22.87 20.18 17.74 5.35 4.65 4.01 000568 211.90 3119.14 7.06 8.98 11.06 30.09 23.59 19.16 9.12 7.45 6.05 21.29 25.30 29.98 29.49 24.58 20.74 8.58 7.15 5.93 600809 242.51 2958.54 6.64 8.60 10.71 36.54 28.19 22.64 13.88 10.34 7.81 600702 111.10 370.16 5.09 5.49 6.73 21.96 20.22 16.52 5.85 4.80 3.89 600779 59.45 290.33 2.50 2.58 3.12 23.88 23.07 19.08 8.39 6.66 5.35 000799 76.86 249.74 3.23 2.28 2.96 23.81 33.70 25.95 6.01 5.39 4.67 002304 118.77 1789.20 6.23 7.13 8.30 19.08 16.65 14.30 3.77 3.37 2.98 603369 55.06 690.73 2.01 2.51 3.13 27.60 21.90 17.59 6.24 5.14 4.22 000596 263.83 1394.61 5.95 8.40 10.81 44.37 31.41 24.41 7.53 6.46 5.45 603198 72.18 577.44 2.13 2.82 3.53 33.86 25.58 20.45 8.33 6.93 5.71 603589 48.49 290.94 2.58 3.01 3.54 18.77 16.13 13.70 3.27 2.95 2.64 4.04 4.76 5.87 27.76 24.10 19.41 7.03 5.78 4.75 3 2023 11 15 Wind 13 Wind 8 21 22 22 2 2022 CR4 60%12 13 3.2 14 2022-8.00%-6.00%-4.00%-2.00%0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%02004006008001000120014001600180020002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%0100020003000400050006000 YoY 18.37%8.02%7.54%20.14%45.93%0100020003000400050006000 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-314 Wind Euromonitor 2019-2022 2023 2015-2022 22.4%34.8%2019-2022 14.66%9.16%12.91%24.32%9.12%23 2023 22 23Q1-3/+3.5%/+11%23Q3 23Q1-3+15.0%+5.0%16 2019/15 2007-2022 3.2 0%20%40%60%80%100%15 Wind Euromonitor 2024 2022/79%/46%/98%/35%17-18 3.2-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%2020-022020-042020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-062023-082023-10:0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%30%35%40%45%50%55%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23Q1-3 A 16 Wind 21-22 21-22 23Q1-3&24 23 23 9-18.1%23 8 2024 20/3.2 24 19%0.000.010.010.020.020.030.030.040.040.0517 Wind 23 2023 2023Q1-3 6.4%6.9%9.7%10.7%15.0%13.7%42.2%12.8%24 21 22 3.2 23 24 27.8%-0.2%10.8%7.3%7.5%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%4805005205405605806006206406602019 2020 2021 2022 23Q1-3 YoY 105.8%24.2%36.2%12.9%17.8%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%01020304050607080902019 2020 2021 2022 23Q1-3 YoY 18&3Q23 23Q1-3+11.0%1H23+26.4%60%2+&3Q23+4.2%+4%U8 V10 1H23+64.2%1.8pct 5.3%1 2 3.2 19 Wind 3.2 EPS PE PB 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 600600.SH 78.46 1070.38 2.73 3.25 3.89 28.85 24.14 20.17 4.20 3.80 3.37 600132.SH 75.15 363.70 2.61 3.04 3.57 28.78 24.72 21.06 17.69 14.52 10.94 000729.SZ 9.87 278.19 0.13 0.22 0.31 78.97 44.16 31.39 2.07 2.02 1.94 002461.SZ 8.17 180.83 0.27 0.32 0.38 30.23 25.80 21.65 1.88 1.81 1.73 600573.SH 10.63 26.58 0.16 0.21 0.28 66.69 50.14 37.43 2.19 2.12 2.03 000929.SZ 9.92 18.43-0.16-63.01-2.87-000752.SZ*ST 6.96 18.36-0.25-27.83-59.64-0.78 1.41 1.69 20.38 33.79 26.34-4.10 4.85 4.00 1876.HK 15.22 2015.65 0.48 0.56 0.66 28.32 24.61 20.79 2.40 1.93 1.80 0291.HK 38.80 1258.74 1.34 1.66 2.04 25.88 21.45 17.50 4.16 3.72 3.48 0.91 1.11 1.35 27.10 23.03 19.14 3.28 2.82 2.64 2023 11 17 Wind 4 23 25 24 2023 3875.9 2018-2023 CAGR1.25%18-23CAGR(2023E)(2023E)7.52%392.2 0.2%UHT 5.30%1197.9 4.9%-2.31%1191.5-3.3%3.3 UHT 2023 Euromonitor 20-20%-10%0%10%20%30%010002000300040002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023(,)UHT(,)(,)(,)YoY()UHT YoY()YoY()YoY()04008001200160020002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 UHT 010203040506070810121416182022242014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023(/kg)(/kg)UHT(/kg)(/kg)(/kg)20 26 2023 CR5 2023E TOP1 TOP2 TOP3 60.6%22.4%13.4%10.3%UHT 90.7%86.7%44.1%42.6%1.7%75.0%55.4%31.3%24.1%7.8%5 3.3 2023 56.1%30.2%25.9%CR3 46.1%UHT 86.7%55.4%21 2023 Euromonitor,35.7%,30.2%,25.9%,4.7%,3.5%21 27 28 29 ROE 23Q1-Q3 24 ROE 1-3Q23 18%14.7%10.5%3.3 Q1-3 ROE 22 Wind-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%02004006008001,0001,2001,4002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23Q1-Q3 YoY YoY YoY YoY-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%01020304050607080901002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23Q1-Q3 YoY YoY YoY YoY-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23Q1-Q3 22 30 31 32 23 3.3 23 Wind 10%12%14%16%18%20%22%24%26%28%30%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23Q1-Q3 2%3%4%5%6%7%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23Q1-Q3 0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 23Q1-Q3 23 6 2023 11 16 Wind 3.3 Wind 24 24 EPS PE 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E 600887 27.02 1720.18 1.47 1.67 1.91 21.03 16.12 14.15 2319.HK 24.95 981.17 1.34 1.51 1.76 23.58 600597 9.28 127.92 0.26 0.46 0.54 41.13 20.30 17.30 002946 12.67 109.70 0.42 0.55 0.73 31.71 22.99 17.30 002732 20.29 31.93 0.63 1.09 1.29 37.63 18.63 15.68 0.82 1.06 1.25 31.02 19.51 16.11 33 34 kg/Euromonitor 2014-2022 CAGR 8.9%2023 15.39%5923 3.4 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%020004000600080001000012000 yoy 0510152025302008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E2026E2027E 25 35 CR10 36 2022 CR10 25.8%36%45.7%48.7%2022 3.4 Euromonitor 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 26 37 38 Euromonitor-3.4 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%0510152025302008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E2026E2027E/kg 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%05001000150020002500300035004000 yoy 27 40/39 41/Wind+2021 2022 23Q3+0.39pct+0.37pct 3.4 0500100015002000250030003500010002000300040005000600070000%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%28 Wind 23 B 3.4 29 42 43-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0501001502002503002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-3 yoy yoy-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%-20-1001020304050602018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-3 yoy yoy-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%-20-100102030405060 yoy yoy 44 3.5 2016 6128 2021 8251 CAGR 6.1%2026 11472 2021-2026CAGR 6.8%Euromonitor 2022 500 4908 2821 942 45 2016-2026 46 2022 Frost&Sullivan Euromonitor 30 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%02000400060008000100001200014000 YOY 0100020003000400050006000/3.5 2022 Frost Sullivan 2021 1512 2026 2220 2021-2026 CAGR 8%2022 2022 30.7%2017 26.7%4pct 47 2022 31 0501001502002503003504004502008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E2024E2025E3.5 2022 Frost&Sullivan 2016 1139 2021 1729 CAGR 8.7%2021 2026 CAGR 9.6%2016 18.6%2021 21.0%/48 2016-2026 49 2016-2026 Frost&Sullivan 32 73%74%75%76%77%78%79%80%81%82%0100020003000400050006000700080009000100002016 2018 2020 2022E 2024E 2026E 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0500100015002000250030002016 2018 2020 2022E 2024E 2026E 3.5 1 2 2017 2018 100 2022 1000 5 2000 50 2017-2023 6 51 2022-2023 33 05001000150020002500300035002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 050010001500200025002022.1 2022.10 2023.4 2023.8 +23Q2 Q2 4.94pct Q3 23Q3 6.67pct 17-22 CAGR 45.68%&2021 22Q2-23Q3 6 23H1 95.6%35%23H1 3.9 22 4.2 58%34 3.5&3.6/2019 9914 2024 13230 5.9%2019 2017 2019-2024 10.8%2019 1119 2019-2024 9.4%7&35 2014-2019 CAGR 11.00%3.50%2.40%14.00%2.10%2.30%3.80%6.30%6.90%29.00%9.10%2019-2024 CAGR 10.80%3.40%2.20%9.40%0.90%2.10%3.50%6.20%5.70%20.80%4.30%3.6 2019 56.2%2019 1.5 2022 2022 36.70%2022 26.62%2018-2022 2018-2022 53 2018-2022 52 2018-2022 36 37 Wind 2023 11 11 2013 9 12 29 54 2013 4.1 38 2013 2 26 29 55 2013 4.2 Wind 2023 11 11 39 Wind 2017 1 28 2017-3.17%9 38.23%166.77%28 56 2017%4.3-100-5005010015020040 Wind 2023 3 22 0.97pct 23 2.31pct 57 2023 4.4 58-3.5-3-2.5-2-1.5-1-0.500.511.50123456(%)(pct(pct-3.0-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.04.05.00.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.01Q172Q173Q174Q171Q182Q183Q184Q181Q192Q193Q194Q191Q202Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23(%)(pct(pct 5.41 42 SAC S0850520020001:SAC S0850520100001:SAC S0850520050001 1.6 6 2.A 500 10%-10%10%-10%6 10%-10%10%-10%43