资源描述
11 2023 12 5 SAC S1340522080004|SAC S1340523010001 2 2023 2024 116GWh+64%2024 59GWh+80%33GWh+50%24GWh+50%13.0/11 0.50/Wh-2.0%11 0.93/Wh-3.1%11 EPC 1.24/Wh-1.6%2023 PCS 2024 PCS AI 23 24 2024+PCS PCS YWAZyRqNpMrQtNsRqNrOmNbRbP6MtRpPpNtQkPnMmOkPmMrP9PrRwPxNpOoMMYmPpR3 PCS 24+64%4 4 24+64%51.1 2024 116GWh+64%CNESA EIA BNEF 1 2016-2024E 1.4 2.1 4.5 4.97.821.339.750%114%9%59%173%86%78%64%-10%10%30%50%70%90%110%130%150%170%190%0.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.0140.02016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E GWh GWh GWh%70.511661.2 2023 11 21.1GWh+19%2 2022-2023 GWh 2023 12 0.6 0.4 2.0 0.9 1.4 2.7 3.0 11.0 19.0 17.4 13.6 15.4 5.23.215.118.26.415.617.314.519.917.821.120.00.05.010.015.020.025.01 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2022 2023 3.4 2.5 4.2 2.7 2.5 2.3 1.4 3.2 7.9 11.0 4.5 11.0 2.64.14.97.05.63.78.7 8.77.716.56.510.00.05.010.015.020.01 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2022 2023 71.3 24 59GWh+80%3 2012-2024E CNESA 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.3 1.3 3.1 4.9 14.7 33.0 59 160%131%-37%216%33%341%-2%145%58%199%125%80%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%400%0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.02012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E GWh%81.4 2023 8.4GW+102%EIA 2023 11-12 EIA 4 2022-2023 GW 0.13 0.08 0.24 0.62 0.03 0.29 0.41 0.43 0.13 0.83 0.08 0.94 0.10 0.10 0.30 0.20 0.10 1.10 1.50 0.50 0.59 0.18 1.54 2.26 0.00.51.01.52.02.51 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2022 202391.5 24 33GWh+50%EIA 5 2015-2024E 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.8 2.2 10.4 14.6 21.8 33 9%-2%33%52%24%379%39%50%50%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%400%0.05.010.015.020.025.030.035.02015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E GWh%101.6 2023 11 259MWh 6 MWh 2023 11-12 2023 12 7 9.25.610.8 10.513.219.117.019.518.025.827.927.528.7 12.2 27.5 21.8 22.5 25.7 22.7 18.8 22.3 10.2 11.0 10.9 0.05.010.015.020.025.030.035.01 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2022 2023 108 112 154 132 154 147 141 206 201 180 178 106 365 315 398 333 401 433 403 356 302 258 259 212 01002003004005001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2022 2023 111.7 24 24GWh+50%8 2016-2024E BNEF 0.3 0.9 2.1 1.9 2.5 6.0 10.4 15.6 24 187%119%-8%30%142%74%50%50%-50%0%50%100%150%200%0.05.010.015.020.025.02016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E GWh%12 12 132.1 2023 12 13.0/9 2021-2023/SMM 13.0 0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.01/61/131/201/272/32/102/172/243/33/103/173/243/314/74/144/214/285/55/125/195/266/26/96/166/236/307/77/147/217/288/48/118/188/259/19/89/159/229/2910/610/1310/2010/2711/311/1011/1711/2412/112/812/1512/2212/292021 2022 2023142.2 10 2022 7-2023 11 EPC/Wh 11 0.50/Wh-2.0%11 0.93/Wh-3.1%11 EPC 1.24/Wh-1.6%0.92 0.87 0.74 0.66 0.69 0.67 0.61 0.55 0.51 0.50 1.41 1.29 1.16 1.31 1.231.13 1.050.99 0.960.932.18 1.94 1.86 1.64 1.641.52 1.31 1.30 1.261.240.000.501.001.502.002.502022 7 2022 8 2022 9 2022 10 2022 11 2022 12 2023 1 2023 2 2023 3 2023 4 2023 5 2023 6 2023 7 2023 8 2023 9 2023 10 2023 11 LFP EPC 152.3 2024H1 CNESA 11 2021 2022 2023E 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4E/11.5 47.8 25.7 41.9 47.4 48.5 56.0 38.7 25.5 23.6 15.0 LFP/Wh 0.53 0.78 0.63 0.71 0.79 0.80 0.82 0.79 0.68 0.58 0.48 LFP/Wh 1.00 0.68 1.02 0.99 0.90 0.69 0.61 0.50/Wh 1.48 1.15 1.47 1.48 1.46 1.52 1.39 1.23 1.07 0.95 EPC/Wh 1.81 1.55 1.63 1.84 1.85 1.92 1.90 1.71 1.38 1.25 162.4 2024 2021 2022 2023E 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4E 0.42 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.41 0.42 0.44 0.45 0.43 0.41 0.41 0.22 0.22 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.23 0.25 0.24 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.66 0.69 0.70 0.70 0.68 0.68 0.71 0.72 0.70 0.70 0.69 0.66 0.72 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.72 0.75 0.76 0.71 0.75 0.67 12/kWh 172.5 2024 EIA 2021 2022 2023E 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3E 2023Q4E 13.7 15.1 15.8 14.0 15.0 15.9 15.5 15.8 16.1 15.9 15.9 11.3 12.5 12.5 11.6 12.3 13.4 12.7 12.7 12.4 13.0 13.0 7.3 8.4 8.1 7.4 8.4 9.4 8.5 8.1 7.9 8.5 8.5 10.2 11.7 12.9 11.0 11.3 12.6 11.7 12.9 12.4 13.5 13.5 11.2 12.4 12.6 11.5 12.2 13.4 12.6 12.7 12.5 13.2 13.2 13/kWh 182.6 2024 HEPI 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 23/22 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 23/22 1 19.2 18.8 18.6 25.3 30.7 1.2-4%1 30.7 33.2 33.1 50.1 54.2 1.16%2 19.1 18.6 18.7 23.8 28.3 1.2-8%2 31.1 33.3 33.3 39.9 49.5 1.2-9%3 19.1 18.6 18.8 25.2 25.9 1.0-8%3 31.1 33.6 33.3 41.7 44.1 1.1-11%4 19.0 18.3 18.9 27.1 25.1 0.9-3%4 31.1 33.0 33.3 42.1 40.5 1.0-8%5 19.0 18.1 19.0 27.1 25.1 0.90%5 31.7 32.7 33.3 42.7 39.6 0.9-2%6 19.1 18.0 19.1 27.2 24.5 0.9-2%6 32.4 32.5 33.0 39.8 39.3 1.0-1%7 19.1 17.9 19.6 28.5 24.9 0.92%7 32.4 32.2 33.4 39.9 38.6 1.0-2%8 19.0 17.9 20.0 30.9 24.4 0.8-2%8 32.4 32.5 33.6 44.6 38.5 0.90%9 19.1 18.0 20.3 34.7 24.5 0.70%9 32.4 32.5 33.4 54.9 39.4 0.73%10 19.2 18.2 21.2 35.4 24.2 0.7-1%10 32.4 32.0 33.3 63.0 39.4 0.60%11 19.2 18.1 22.2 33.0 24.2 0.70%11 32.7 32.0 37.2 64.2 39.4 0.60%12 19.2 18.2 23.0 31.8 24.2 0.80%12 32.7 32.2 36.2 51.1 39.4 0.80%19.1 18.2 20.0 29.2 25.5 31.9 32.6 33.9 47.8 41.8 14/kWh 19 19 200.14 0.16 0.22 0.040 0.034 0.033 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.602023E20222021-PCS-PCS-3.1 PCS 15/Wh 1.281.481.15 0.78PCS 0.096 0.96PCS 0.102 0.70PCS 0.103213.2 23Q3 22%2021 2022 2023E 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4E 28%17%21%6%7%17%25%21%22%22%18%30%34%35%27%30%36%37%40%34%28%23%19%18%20%14%16%19%19%21%19%19%20%16 2021 2022 2023E 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4E 16%9%10%-3%-1%9%15%11%11%9%8%15%21%19%12%16%22%24%25%35%-5%-5%5%6%6%2%4%6%8%8%5%3%3%17 223.3 PCS 23Q3 40%2021 2022 2023E 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4E 34%33%39%35%32%33%33%36%40%40%40%38%34%39%36%37%36%32%40%38%39%38%40%45%48%42%40%42%49%51%48%47%45%38%38%39%40%39%38%37%41%40%38%38%32%35%32%34%35%34%36%41%51%54%50%49%51%52%51%54%56%56%23%19%20%19%19%19%19%19%19%21%21%24%23%28%24%25%22%23%29%30%29%26%36%44%42%45%44%44%43%41%42%42%42%30%27%30%28%28%27%27%30%30%30%30%18 PCS 233.3 PCS 23Q3 22%-5pct 2021 2022 2023E 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4E 18%18%24%15%15%20%19%20%27%22%27%23%19%19%22%22%17%19%23%21%14%8%19%26%29%13%18%24%33%31%34%24%19%20%27%23%30%35%28%26%26%37%9%22%20%12%20%20%1%9%14%32%38%43%41%40%37%37%41%42%42%48%4%5%6%1%2%10%4%6%7%4%7%4%-2%7%1%1%1%-5%9%10%7%5%4%15%15%14%15%16%15%12%19%14%12%12%10%14%8%14%15%7%14%15%12%14%19 PCS 243.4 23Q3 22%+2pct2021 2022 2023E 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4E 13%12%6%7%10%11%14%6%5%7%6%18%10%3%14%11%4%12%2%3%3%4%21%2021 2022 2023E 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4E 33%32%21%32%32%32%32%21%20%22%21%32%25%19%26%25%25%24%20%19%19%19%20%253.5 23Q3 15%+2pct 2021 2022 2023E 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4E 7%3%4%1%2%3%5%4%3%5%5%5%5%6%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%4%1%6%2%6%5%5%3%4%23%2021 2022 2023E 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4E 27%12%13%10%11%12%13%12%13%15%13%15%15%16%15%15%15%13%14%16%16%21%16%21%20%21%21%17%17%15%16%22%26 26 275 28 28 SAC S1340522080004 中 邮 证 券 研 究 所 电新 团队 SAC S1340523010001 29 2017 7 1 30 2002 9 50.6 17 100050 9023 518048 1080|3 20000031
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