资源描述
养老产业专题研究（六）个人养老金试点首年追踪 与展望 行业深度报告 行业报告 非银行金融 2023 年 11 月 23 日 强 于 大 市（维 持）-20231101-20230925-2023-20230906 S1060520040001 BQC673 WANGWEIYI S1060520040002 LIBINGTING S1060122070023 WEIJIWEN 平安观点：12000 2023 11 14 741 63%5 IRA 2024-2030 24371 IRA 1 2 3 4 证券研究报告 2/26 正文目录 一、发展现状：产品扩 容，参加人数增长.5 1.1.5 1.2.7 1.3.11 二、四类机构各有千秋，满足多元化养老需求.12 2.1.13 2.2 5.15 2.3.17 三、个人养老金发展的 机遇与挑战.19 3.1.19 3.2.20 3.3.21 四、风险提示.25 YWFUuNmRtQpOpRnOqNsNnM8OcM7NoMpPmOpMlOrQpOlOpNmQbRqRmQxNpNtPMYnMsR 3/26 图表目录 1.5 2 36.5 3 2023 3 2022.6 4.6 5 2023 3.6 6.6 7.7 8.8 9-.8 10.8 11.8 12.9 13.9 14 2023 11 14.9 15.11 16.11 17 20230420.12 18.12 19.12 20 2023 11 14.13 21.15 22 5.16 23 VS.16 24&.18 25.18 26.18 27.19 28.19 29.20 30 IRA.21 31.22 32.22 33.22 4/26 34.22 35.23 36.23 37 2024-2030.24 5/26 一、发 展 现 状：产 品扩容，参 加人数 增长 2022 4 11()36 12000 1.1 2022 1954 10.5 36 2.5 36 1 1.9%7.9%2023 3 3324 QoQ+70.1%36 3.2%13.4%6 4030 QoQ+21.2%36 3.8%16.3%1 2 36 Wind Wind 36 2023 3 6 2023 36 2022 12000 2023 2023 3 3038 2022+55.5%900 2022+46.8%29.6%2022-1.7pct 182 2022+28.2%2022 2022-12.7%110 60%1 36 050010001500200025003000350040004500 0%5%10%15%20%36 36 6/26 3 2023 3 2022 4 Wind Wind 2023 3 2023 2022 2023 3 36 13.4%1 2023 3 10pct 13%2 2023 3 2830 1261 13%2022 2023 3 36 599 1 10 47 41 5 2023 3 6 2022 12 8 3.6%2023 1 10.9%2023 2 24 9.7%2023 3 13.0%2023 3 17.3%2023 3 7.7%2023 3 14.6%2023 6 15.4%+2023 6 20.0%2022-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%050010001500200025002022 2023 3 0%5%10%15%20%36 7/26 1.2 1 2 3 4 5&22 7 7 AMAC 2023 11 14 AMAC 1.2.1 63%2023 11 14 741 465 162 95 19 1 22 465 8/26 6 151 32.5%11 271 58.3%5 43 9.2%1 1 211 45.4%6 254 6 10 5 59.4%23.6%16.9%8 9-2 50 162 AMAC 2022 11 18 40 129 2023 11 14 50 162 72 1 74 15 90.1%50 198 84.0%TOP10 46.9%37.0%49.2%TOP20 74.3%63.0%83.5%10 11 11 TOP10 TOP20 2023 11 14 50 50 11 5 6 10 5 6 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%TOP10 TOP20 9/26 3 2022 11 23 6 7 2023 9 2023 2023 11 14 95 40 57.9%12 13 4 2023 2 10 3 7 2023 9 20 5 19 14 18 14 2023 11 14-1 365 3.70%-4.20%+0.14 2 540 4.10-4.60+1.03 3 1080 5.25%-5.75%+1.46 4 720 4.40%-4.90%+0.62 5 360 L 4.05%78.79 L 6 365 1 L 3.65%-4.65%+0.37 7 1095 1 L 3.85%-4.75%+0.11 42.1%10/26 8 2018 32 B 3.00%0.0037 9 2018 4 B 3.20-3.50+0.0016 10 1 L 3.70%-4.70%+0.89 11 18 L 3.80%-4.80%+0.35 12 2 L 3.90%-4.90%+0.32 13 3 L 4.10%-5.10%+0.51 14 5 L 4.25%-6.25%0.75 15 365 L 3.70%-4.20%+0.47 16 1080 L 5.25%-5.75%+0.5 17 720 L 4.50%-5.00%0.23 18 1825 1 L 4.05%-4.95%+0.16 19 365 L 5%*300+95%*-()+N.A.Wind Wind 360 A L L 1.2.2 AMAC 2022 11 18 37 16 14 7 2023 11 14 48 19 22 7 2023 95+52239 83072 45 47%+47440 73088 91%88%2 2+11/26 15 16 AMAC AMAC 2023 11 14 2023 AMAC 1.3 21 4 20 200 135 60%+40%30%+4%81 43.2 5.4 5.4 3 195 60.0%26.6%8.2%5.1%1 Wind 2023 11 14 51.9 2 9 20 15 10 3 2021 6 2022 3 2022 7 23.5 21 2023 9 81.6 63.7 2023 9 2021 10 23 6 5 10 6 16 4+40%117 3 01020304050020000400006000080000+0%20%40%60%80%100%120%+12/26 17 20230420 18 21 Wind 21 Wind 二、四 类 机 构 各 有 千秋，满足 多元 化养老 需求/19 0%40%80%120%160%200%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%20230420 13/26+2.1 2.1.1 2023 6 39440 6.5 23 6 12 5 5 2022 11 20 20 2023 11 14 1 129 8 8 2 135 6 3 3 134 8 1 4 133 2 5 121 2 6 113 5 7 109 4 5 8 106 1 6 9 100 3 10 79 2 4 14/26 11 76 1 1 12 50 6 4 13 37 6 6 14 48 15 42 1 3 16 33 1 3 17 31 3 1 18 29 2 19 27 3 20 3 21 22 23:2.1.2 2023 2023 6 66.1 37.4 32.0 21.9 17.1 7.9 2.1.3 5 1 2 3 15/26 2.2 5 21-/22 5 22 50 465 19 95 162+5 10 15 20 7-5 1-3 5 5 1 3 0.018%18 0.124%9 0.144%FOF A A 1.01%0.37%0.08%0.43%2.05%-4.0%1.80%-2.90%4.0%-5.0%2%-3%0%-1.2%2022 4%-5.15%4.5%-5.7%11 14 2023-2.83%300-7.48%35 55+55 60 10 Wind 2.2.1 2023 11 14 44 12 8 16/26 5 10 15 20 100 3.5%4.0%2.65%2023 2023 6 376.7 22 421 7 5 1 2 3 5 22 5 23 VS 5 10 15 20/4%/3.5%/2.25%/2.05%1 2 3 5 2.05%2.35%2.85%2.90%1.80%2.10%2.60%2.65%1.55%1.85%2.20%2.25%1.80%2.10%2.60%2.65%APP APP 2.2.2 2021 9 5 19 1 12 7 2+”15 3 4 1-3 5 5 4.0%-5.0%L A 0.1pct 6 0.018%2018 4 18 0.124%9 0.144%2.2.3 17/26 5 1+2%-3%0%-1.2%2022 4%-5.15%4.5%-5.7%60 10 2+3 2023 9 12000 2.2.4 50 162 FOF 1 162 2 2 3 1 3 3 1 5 2023 11 14 162 46.56 1 3 72 74 26.01%49.68%2 5 1 15 5 24.25%4 11 14 162 2023-2.83%300-7.48%5 FOF A 1.01%0.37%0.08%0.43%A 2.3 APP 18/26 5 10 5 2022 11 5 50 2022 80%3 8%5 10 1%5 24&50 25 26 50 50 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%1 1-3 3-5 5-10 10-20 20 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%/0%10%20%30%40%50%60%/19/26 27 28 50 50 100%-2023 10 10 44%38%10%10 三、个人养老金 发 展的机 遇与 挑战 3.1 1 7.52 2022 10.53 5.04 1.36 5.50 1.65 2 12000/12000 EET 12000/3%5000 44%15%2022 45931 6890 2019 3077 1340.5 1.15 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%20/26 2019 45249 25.3%2022 11627 2022 6890-11627 9.2%15.5%6 6-9.6 3%6 3%12000/EET 3%3 2000 2014 1 2023 13.6 3084.6 6.05%2022 0.4%2023 6 36 16.3%6.05%29 Wind:=3.2 1 IRA 2000 2 EET TEE IRA Roth IRA EET EET 1997 IRA TEE 4.0%4.5%5.0%5.5%6.0%6.5%7.0%05001000150020002500300035002007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023Q2 21/26 EET TEE EEE 30 IRA IRS 3 ICI 2022 IRA 11.5 IRA 9.7 84%IRA 60%IRA 50%IRA 401(k)EET 401(k)IRAs/E ET 3%/4/IRA IRA 59.5 IRA 10%IRA 59.5 5 IRA 59.5 I RA 10%3.3 50 2022 1 010002000300040005000600070001975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 22/26 2/3 60%70%30%23%39.99 13.57 90.68 26.37 2 48%70%7%31 32 50 50 33 34 50 50 67.42%58.22%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%23/26 35 36 50 50 36 1/2022 8%2023 16%2023 18%1pct 2030 25%2/2022 31.4%2023 3 29.6%2023 32%1pct 2030 39%3 2022 2316 2023 3 2022 2023 2022 2024 2500 500 2030 5500 4 2022 105301 2023 105663 2023 105500 5 KPI 2022 45931 2023 2023 1200/15%25.3%2022 15%2023 1pct 2030 23%2024 2024-2030 24371 2022 25.3%2023 0.2pct 2030 26.9%2024 2024-2030 31274 0%10%20%30%40%50%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%24/26 37 2024-2030 2024E 8216 20045 6615 2500 1654 2025E 8916 21100 7174 3000 2152 2026E 9639 22155 7754 3500 2714 2027E 10386 23210 8356 4000 3342 2028E 11158 24265 8978 4500 4040 2029E 11953 25320 9622 5000 4811 2030E 12772 26375 10286 5500 5657 24371 2024E 12421 10000 2500 2500 2025E 12829 10323 3000 3097 2026E 13241 10652 3500 3728 2027E 13658 10988 4000 4395 2028E 14080 11329 4500 5098 2029E 14506 11677 5000 5839 2030E 14938 12030 5500 6617 31274 1=*2=*/*/3=/*IRA ICI 2021 IRA 13.9 44.6%4.9%3.9%46.6%58.3%19.3%16.5%5.9%2024-2030 1 10869 1194 950 11357 2 13948 1532 1220 14573 25/26 四、风险提示 1 36 2 9 3 FOF 4 2023 平 安 证 券 研 究 所投资 评级：股票投资评级:6 20%6 10%20%6 10%6 10%行业投资评级:6 5%6 5%6 5%公司声明及风险提示：免责条款：2023 平安证券研究所 4008866338 5023 B 25 1333 26 4 1 B 25
展开阅读全文