资源描述
SAC S0850515040002 SAC S0850518120003 SAC S0850523100001 2023 11 29 2024 1.2.3.2 1ZEVuNmRnOnMrPoNnQpQrQbR8Q6MtRrRpNtQeRrQrQiNmPmM7NrQpOwMmQqQvPsQsO3 Wind ROE ROE=ROA*ROE 2011 2022 ROA 42%21%ROA ROE 54%ROA 1 2 1.1 ROE 2011-2022 ROE%ROA%2011 20.40 1.30 15.69 2022 9.33 0.76 12.32-54%-42%-21%4 BIS Investopedia 1988 2017 1.1 1988 International convergence of capital measurement and capital standards 1995 2004 II 2004 2004 Basel II:International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards:A Revised Framework 2007 2007 2010 Basel III:A global regulatory framework for more resilient banks and banking systems-revised version 2012 2017 Basel III:Finalising post-crisis reforms 2023 5 1995 8%2004 2007 2012 2023 2023 11 1.1 1995 8%2004 8%4%2007 2007 8%4%/2012 10.5%7.5%2023 10.5%7.5%6 1.1 1 2 3 4 5 200 200 200 200 200/2 4 6 8 10 100 50 33.3 25 20 8%8%8%8%8%8 4 2.67 2 1.6(25%+6%)11.31 5.65 3.77 2.83 2.26 7 Wind/2004 2009 2022/2017/7.2345%31 1.1 678910111213141516 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 22.0 24.0 26.0 28.02003-122004-102005-082006-062007-042008-022008-122009-102010-082011-062012-042013-022013-122014-102015-082016-062017-042018-022018-122019-102020-082021-062022-042023-02/()/()8 Wind/2023 1.1/10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.02003-122004-102005-082006-062007-042008-022008-122009-102010-082011-062012-042013-022013-122014-102015-082016-062017-042018-022018-122019-102020-082021-062022-042023-02 9 BASEL II 1.06 RWA 1.06 2012 BASEL III RWA 6%BASEL III(output floor)72.5%72.5%72.5%2012 80%72.5%1.06 III 1 Jan 2023 50%1 Jan 2024 55%1 Jan 2025 60%1 Jan 2026 65%1 Jan 2027 70%1 Jan 2028 72.5%2012 80%23H1 80%1.2 RWA(,)RWA(,)242443 242443 0.00%218749 218749 0.00%217377 217377 0.00%181507 181507 0.00%87360 87360 0.00%58325 63523 8.18%BIS 23H1 10 1000 RW 75%500 3 85%75%2012 LGD 45%2023 LGD 40%5%/45%=11.1%1.2 75%500 100%75%75%1000 85%3 100%BIS 11 50%LTV/20%LTV 80%20%-30%5000 300 10%50%75%45%1.06 80%1.2 LTV LTV 50%50%LTV 60%60%LTV 80%80%LTV 90%90%100%RW 20%25%30%40%50%30%35%45%60%75%105%BIS 12 Wind ROE 1.3 23Q3 13 Wind 2022 2014 2022Q4 1.4%-5.00-3.00-1.001.003.005.007.00(TTM)(TTM)-10 14 Wind-Wind 2000 2015-2022 30%1.4(%)2022 30.01 30.01 30.03 30.03 30.06 2021 30.01 30.01 30.04 30.08 30.10 2020 30.01 30.00 30.07 30.07 30.08 2019 30.00 30.02 30.00 29.99 30.27 2018 30.00 30.01 30.08 30.04 30.26 2017 30.00 30.01 30.05 30.03 30.20 2016 30.01 30.02 30.05 30.03 30.00 2015 30.00 30.00 30.15 30.03 30.14 2014 33.00 32.94 32.98 33.03 30.45 2013 35.01 34.57 34.90 34.94 30.99 0102030405060702000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 wind-(%)Wind 15 Wind wind 2014 1.4 2014 0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.004.505.00-15.00-10.00-5.000.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.00:(%):10(%)4.004.505.005.506.006.507.001800230028003300380043002014-07-012014-08-012014-09-012014-10-012014-11-012014-12-012015-01-012015-02-012015-03-012015-04-012015-05-012015-06-012015-07-012015-08-012015-09-012015-10-012015-11-012015-12-01():6 1(%)16 Wind 2022 Q4 1.5-2.000.002.004.006.008.0010.00-:10%17 Wind-A 1.5 6.26.46.66.877.27.4800900100011001200130014001500160017002016-11 2017-11 2018-11 2019-11 2020-11 2021-11 2022-11HK 6.26.46.66.877.27.430003500400045005000550060002016-11 2017-11 2018-11 2019-11 2020-11 2021-11 2022-11Wind 1.6 18 A 1 2023 ROE 11%100 11 2 2023/2024 12%1%7%1%4%2 30%12.5%4 2024-2028 1%1%7%ROE A ROE 2023 11.0%100.00 11.00 30.0%7.70 12.00%100.00 800.00 12.5%2024 10.3%107.70 11.11 30.0%7.78 1%12.00%7.7%107.70 896.00 12.0%2025 9.7%115.48 11.22 30.0%7.85 1%11.00%7.2%115.48 994.56 11.6%2026 9.2%123.33 11.33 30.0%7.93 1%10.00%6.8%123.33 1094.02 11.3%2027 8.7%131.27 11.45 30.0%8.01 1%9.00%6.4%131.27 1192.48 11.0%2028 8.3%139.28 11.56 30.0%8.09 1%8.00%6.1%139.28 1287.88 10.8%2029 8.0%147.37 11.79 30.0%8.25 2%7.00%5.8%147.37 1378.03 10.7%2030 7.8%155.63 12.15 30.0%8.50 3%7.00%5.6%155.63 1474.49 10.6%2031 7.7%164.13 12.63 30.0%8.84 4%7.00%5.5%164.13 1577.70 10.4%2032 7.7%172.97 13.26 30.0%9.28 5%7.00%5.4%172.97 1688.14 10.2%2033 7.7%182.25 14.06 30.0%9.84 6%7.00%5.4%182.25 1806.31 10.1%2034 7.8%192.10 15.04 30.0%10.53 7%7.00%5.4%192.10 1932.75 9.9%2035 7.9%202.63 16.10 30.0%11.27 7%7.00%5.5%202.63 2068.05 9.8%2036 8.1%213.89 17.22 30.0%12.06 7%7.00%5.6%213.89 2212.81 9.7%2037 8.2%225.95 18.43 30.0%12.90 7%7.00%5.6%225.95 2367.71 9.5%2038 8.3%238.85 19.72 30.0%13.80 7%7.00%5.7%238.85 2533.45 9.4%2039 8.3%252.65 20.90 30.0%14.63 6%6.00%5.8%252.65 2685.45 9.4%2040 8.3%267.29 22.16 30.0%15.51 6%6.00%5.8%267.29 2846.58 9.4%2041 8.3%282.79 23.49 30.0%16.44 6%6.00%5.8%282.79 3017.38 9.4%2042 8.3%299.23 24.89 30.0%17.43 6%6.00%5.8%299.23 3198.42 9.4%2043 8.3%316.66 26.39 30.0%18.47 6%6.00%5.8%316.66 3390.32 9.3%2044 8.3%335.13 27.97 30.0%19.58 6%6.00%5.8%335.13 3593.74 9.3%2045 8.4%354.71 29.65 30.0%20.76 6%6.00%5.8%354.71 3809.37 9.3%2046 8.4%375.47 31.43 30.0%22.00 6%6.00%5.9%375.47 4037.93 9.3%2047 8.4%397.47 33.31 30.0%23.32 6%6.00%5.9%397.47 4280.20 9.3%2048 8.4%420.79 35.31 30.0%24.72 6%6.00%5.9%420.79 4537.02 9.3%2049 8.3%445.51 37.08 30.0%25.96 5%5.00%5.9%445.51 4763.87 9.4%2050 8.3%471.46 38.93 30.0%27.25 5%5.00%5.8%471.46 5002.06 9.4%2051 8.2%498.72 40.88 30.0%28.62 5%5.00%5.8%498.72 5252.16 9.5%2052 8.1%527.33 42.92 30.0%30.05 5%5.00%5.7%527.33 5514.77 9.6%2053 8.1%557.38 45.07 30.0%31.55 5%5.00%5.7%557.38 5790.51 9.6%2054 8.0%588.93 47.32 30.0%33.13 5%5.00%5.7%588.93 6080.04 9.7%2055 8.0%622.06 49.69 30.0%34.78 5%5.00%5.6%622.06 6384.04 9.7%2056 7.9%656.84 52.17 30.0%36.52 5%5.00%5.6%656.84 6703.24 9.8%2057 7.9%693.36 54.78 30.0%38.35 5%5.00%5.6%693.36 7038.40 9.9%2058 7.9%731.71 57.52 30.0%40.27 5%5.00%5.5%731.71 7390.32 9.9%2059 7.7%771.97 59.82 30.0%41.88 4%4.00%5.5%771.97 7685.93 10.0%2060 7.6%813.85 62.22 30.0%43.55 4%4.00%5.4%813.85 7993.37 10.2%1.7 19 A 9.3%2048 9%32.7%6%37.8%37.8%/32.7%-1=15.4%NPV NPV ROE 8.4%/8.1%-1=3.9%1.2.A DDM 2035 ROE NPV(10%)8.4%37.8%71.41 8.1%32.7%61.87 3.9%15.4%15.4%20 Wind 2021 2025 TLAC()(-+TLAC)/16%/2.5%/1.5%1%TLAC 20%19.5%TLAC 1.8 TLAC TLAC 5 5 20%1 5 VS TLAC 21 Wind 5+5 10 5 TLAC X+1 X TLAC(/12.0%11.5%)TLAC TLAC 1.8 TLAC 12%8.00%10.00%12.00%14.00%16.00%18.00%20.00%2006/122007/092008/062009/032009/122010/092011/062012/032012/122013/092014/062015/032015/122016/092017/062018/032018/122019/092020/062021/032021/122022/092023/06 22 Wind ROE A-1.9 1.2.3.23 24 Wind 2022 23H1 A 2023 5BP 90 2023 A 5BP 2.1 12%90 2022 2023 90 2022 90 2023 1.10%1.08%0.42%0.40%1.75%1.66%0.75%0.65%1.54%1.39%0.67%0.53%1.40%1.35%0.59%0.56%1.30%1.25%0.52%0.47%0.801.001.201.401.601.802.002010-122011-072012-022012-092013-042013-112014-062015-012015-082016-032016-102017-052017-122018-072019-022019-092020-042020-112021-062022-012022-082023-03:0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%2006/122007/072008/022008/092009/042009/112010/062011/012011/082012/032012/102013/052013/122014/072015/022015/092016/042016/112017/062018/012018/082019/032019/102020/052020/122021/072022/022022/092023/04 25 2.1 2019 2012-2013 2014-2016 2017-2019 2019-2021 2021 2006-23H1 26 Wind 2023 7 24 2022 2023 11 BP 2.2 0.050.0100.0150.0200.02020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-092023-11(AAA):3-:3(AA):3-:3 BP 0.050.0100.0150.0200.0250.02020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-092023-11(AAA):5-:5(AA):5-:5 27 Wind 2019 18.9%2021 134%131.6%2.2:2000 82832 20815 103646 20.1%2001 98804 25125 123929 20.3%2002 120943 30475 151418 20.1%2003 149621 38065 187686 20.3%2004 158689 44626 203315 21.9%2005 174374 51503 225877 22.8%2006 243253 58675 301928 19.4%2007 299146 81300 380446 21.4%2008 331076 89653 420729 21.3%2009 413168 117978 531146 22.2%2010 567132 135653 702784 19.3%2011 710948 154425 865373 17.8%2012 778779 174160 952939 18.3%2013 930779 212196 1142974 18.6%2014 938927 249985 1188912 21.0%2015 1030012 254179 1284191 19.8%2016 1114458 272516 1386974 19.6%2017 1339407 299051 1638458 18.3%2018 1507699 332666 1840364 18.1%2019 1628349 379577 2007926 18.9%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%120.0%140.0%160.0%180.0%200.0%196119641967197019731976197919821985198819911994199720002003200620092012201520182021 28 2.3/(2019)/()147.4 17.1 11.6%35.8 47.6%()3032.9 340.5 11.2%1138.3 29.9%()15.7 1.9 12.1%8.4 22.6%()12.6 2.0 15.7%()13.6 2.5 18.5%7.7 32.7%()575.0 62.3 10.8%232.5 26.8%2021 2009 2021 Wind 20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%2004-122006-122007-082008-042008-122009-082010-042010-122011-082012-042012-122013-082014-042014-122015-082016-042016-122017-082018-042018-122019-082020-042020-122021-082022-042022-122023-08/29 Wind()6 2022-06 2.4 1200140016001800200022002400260028002500.03000.03500.04000.04500.05000.05500.06000.02016-01 2017-01 2018-01 2019-01 2020-01 2021-01 2022-01 2023-01Wind:()(,)010002000300040005000600070008000900010000 300:30 Wind 300 2012 2012 4 2.5 31 Wind GDP GDP 2.5-10.00-5.000.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.00-40-200204060801002000/03/012000/12/012001/09/012002/06/012003/03/012003/12/012004/09/012005/06/012006/03/012006/12/012007/09/012008/06/012009/03/012009/12/012010/09/012011/06/012012/03/012012/12/012013/09/012014/06/012015/03/012015/12/012016/09/012017/06/012018/03/012018/12/012019/09/012020/06/012021/03/012021/12/012022/09/012023/06/01(%)GDP:(%)32 Wind GDP GDP 2.5-10.00-5.000.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.000100020003000400050006000Wind:()GDP:(%)33 Wind PE/GDP 2.5-10.00-5.000.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.000100020003000400050006000Wind:()GDP:(%)34 Wind 2022-11/7 23 2021 2.6 1.2.3.35 36 ROE PE 3 37 SAC S0850515040002(010)50949926 Email SAC S0850518120003(021)23154395 Email 38 SAC S0850523100001(021)23185697 Email(021)23185609 Email 1.6 6 2.A 500 10%-10%10%-10%6 10%-10%10%-10%39
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