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|2023 10 24 5 证券分析师：陈益凌021-S0980519010002证券分析师：马千里010-S0980521070001证券分析师：张佳博021-S0980523050001 5 HPV GSK Shingrix 2017Q4 10 7.84 2022 29.58+72%2026 40 1 Delta mRNA 10 mRNA 2 mRNA mRNA mRNA mRNA mRNA mRNA 3 2030+2015 WHO 2030 Vero WHO HDCV HDCV 4 HPV HPV 2017 MSD4/9 GSK2 2019 HPV WHO 2030 HPV HPV/21ZCXxOmRnOqRtNpMsPsNmN6MaOaQpNmMnPnOeRqRnNfQpNmQ8OmMzQwMsPtNvPsPpN VZV 35/1000 310/1000 2.5%5.0%VZV 50 511/1000 9%34%PHN 30%50%1 10 Shingrix HPV GSK Shingrix 2017Q4 Merck Zostavax 10 7.84 2022 29.58+72%2026 40 GSK Shingrix 2019 2023 0.3%LZ901 2023Q3 Ph3 2024H2 Ph3 BLA 2025Q4 Ph2 Ph1/2 2024 Ph3 2032 50 15%300 GSK+LZ901 Ph1 Shingrix Ph3 2025Q4-B 3 01 02 03-(VZV)3 DNA 150200 nm E gE VZV VZV US CDC 1980 99%VZV 35/1000 310/1000 2.5%5.0%USCDC 1/3 225/10 0.0170.465/10 1%10%VZV 50 VZV 50 511/1000 HIV VZV 31/1000 HIV 29.451.5/1000 COVID-19 COVID-19 12 COVID-19 PHN CD4+T CD4+/CD8+T CD4+T/T Treg CD4+/CD25+/FoxP3+T Treg VZVCD4+T 5 53%20%15%11%ZAP ZAP 30 ZAP 3090 ZAP 90 PHN PHN 9%34%PHN 30%50%1 10 PHN/1000 US CDC6 1998-2019/1000 US CDC 2022/PHN 3 7 4 Merck Zostavax 2006 SK Bioscience SkyZoster 2017 GSK Shingrix 2017 2023 8 GSK Merck Shingrix/Zostavax US 2017.10.20EU 2018.03.28CN 2019.05.22US 2006.02.24EU 2006.05.19CN 2023.01.29 5059 96.6%6069 97.4%70 91.3%5059 70%6069 64%7079 41%70 18%4049 37.4%5059 62.7%6069 64.4%70 18.6%50 91.2%70 88.8%6069 65.7%70 66.8%45 62.8%65 62.9%88%vs 14%10%vs 1%39%vs 3%3%vs 0%31%vs 1%1%vs 0%54%vs 9%48%vs 4%40%vs 3%11%vs 1%4%vs 0.2%2%vs 2%1%vs 0%13%vs 8%5%vs 5%9%vs 8%2%vs 0%2%vs 3%57%vs 15%9%vs 1%57%vs 20%9%vs 2%51%vs 22%6%vs 2%36%vs 7%7%vs 0.2%28%vs 3%0.4%vs 0.2%24%vs 11%2%vs 1%9%vs 8%1.3%vs 0.8%9%vs 2%2%vs 1%1%vs 1%2 26 1 1 120/1600/135/2018.11 1369/vs Shingrix Grade 3 100 mm/ZVL VZV Oka 2000 PFU/VZV VE Vaccine Efficacy 80%85%VE 95%Zostavax 2006 FDA Merck Zoster Vaccine Live ZVL Zostavax 60 2011 50 Zostavax Oka 19400 PFU/10 x T Ph3 ZEST 60 51%61%67%PHN 6069 VE 64%70 VE 18%Kaiser Permanente Northern California Zostavax VE 67.5%2 47.2%8 31.8%2023 1 40 1369/40 VE 57.6%45/65 PHN VE 62.8%/62.9%9/RZV ZVL GSK Shingrix Recombinant Zoster Vaccine RZV VZV gE AS01B MPL/QS-21 2017 10 FDA 50 2021 7/18 2019 5 Shingrix 50 Ph3 ZOE-50/70 50/70 VE 97.2%/91.3%PHN VE 91.2%/88.8%ZOE-LTFU 4 5.69.6 81.6%95%CI 75.2%86.6%8/9/10 83.3%/72.7%/73.2%18/Ph3 5070 auHSCT 6 18 21 Shingrix 1849 50 VE 71.8%/67.3%Ph4 ZOSTER-076 20212023 6000 50 1:1 31 0/1000 vs 8.2/1000 VE=100%95%CI 89.2%100.00%Shingrix Ph3ZOE-50/70 10 Shingrix Zostavax Zostavax 2006 3 2011 50 7.5 Shingrix 2017 10 2018 1 ACIP ACIP Zostavax 12 Shingrix Zostavax 2018 11 Shingrix 7.84 2022 30 19.64+46%2021Q4 4.55 9.94+164%GSK 2026 Shingrix 40 20202026 CAGR 12%2023H1 Shingrix 17.13+20%9.81-3%7.32+74%Zostavax Shingrix GSK Merck 1139236312277243332651758 765 749685 66821722784180019891721295817130500100015002000250030003500Merck-Zostavax GSK-Shingrix Shingrix GSK RoW rest of world01002003004005006007008009001000Shingrix-US Shingrix-RoW 65 US CDC 60 2008 6.7%2021 41.1%50 2017 23.9%32.6%2021 50 ZVL 16.6%1 RZV/18.6%/15.4%2022 2023H1 Shingrix 30 1=1.2473 37 150/CDC/Private 120 180/1200 10%50 43%RZV 25%2014 With health insuranceWithoutOverall Public Private60 yrs 28.7%25.6%30.9%5.6%6064 yrs 22.0%15.5%23.9%6.0%65 yrs 31.3%27.5%34.9%/US CDC12 US CDC US CDC ZVL RZV1 RZV 20%10%20%30%40%2018 2019 2020 202150 yrs 5059 yrs 60 yrs6064 yrs 65 yrs0%5%10%15%20%25%2018 2019 2020 202150 yrs 5059 yrs 60 yrs6064 yrs 65 yrs0%5%10%15%20%25%2018 2019 2020 202150 yrs 5059 yrs 60 yrs6064 yrs 65 yrs0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%50 yrs 60 yrs6064 yrs 65 yrs 01 02 03 GSK Shingrix 2019 2023 Ph3 Ph2 Ph1/2 Ph2 srRNA IND LZ901 40 Ph3 2021/8/150 Ph1 2022/7/1 CHO MA105 30 Ph2 2022/1/1 CHO/CpG1018 40 Ph1/2 2020/5/1REC610 BFA01 40 IND/Ph1 2022/12/1 IND/2023/8/1HN101 IND/40 Ph2 2017/7/1 40 Ph2 2015/9/16 2017/8/11srRNA JCXH-105 IND/50 2023/7/1 chinadrugtrials 14 chinadrugtrials EC Ethics Committee FPI first patient in LPI last patient in 152022/3/172022/1/102015/8/42651215823912021/8/2542522018/8/13741115122981444859308302271575 410 106 263 2972014/12/31 2015/12/31 2016/12/30 2017/12/30 2018/12/30 2019/12/30 2020/12/29 2021/12/29 2022/12/29 2023/12/29 2024/12/28/Ph3 EC Review Ph3 FPI Ph3 LPI Read Out BLA ApprovedPh2 EC Review Ph2 FPI Ph2 LPIPh2 N=522 Ph2 N=400 Ph3 N=25000Ph2 N=924Ph1/2 N=612Ph2 N=450 Ph3 N=26000Ph3 FPI GSK Shingrix GSK Shingrix 2019 5 50 2020 2020 2023Q3 37 400 2023 10 9 GSK GSK GSK RSV 2023 10 8 2026 12 31 2024202634.4/68.8/103.2 200 2020-2023Q3 16/2024 34.42025 68.82026 103.2 1757818024681012141618202020 2021 2022 2023Q1-3Shingrix GSK 2023 1 4 2023Q3 18 40 VZV 4.3 lg PFU 1369/40 VE 57.6%45/65 PHN VE 62.8%/62.9%2023 2023H1 25 2023 2023Q3 1.882.39 35.6%72.9%102.2%157.0%2023Q3 6.47.4 Q2 17 LZ901 LZ901 VZV gE-IgG Fc VZV gE IgG1 Fc 2 Fc VZV gE-Fc VZV APC Fc LZ901 2 Fc B Th2 CD8+T B VZV LZ901 18 LZ901 Ph1Ph1 5070 80 LZ901/LZ901/Shingrix Shingrix/LZ901 AE Shingrix 3 AE/LZ901 3 AE SAE 1 VZV Shingrix LZ901 30 VZV/Shingrix VZV GMT 97/208/28/108 7.0/14.9/2.1/11.3x 80%/85%/30%/75%30/Shingrix VZV GMT 194/512/37/653 13.9/36.8/2.7/68.6x 90%/100%/55%/95%LZ901 Shingrix VZV GMT 2 gE Shingrix 30/Shingrix gE GMC 14.8/19.0/1.3/11.5 IU/ml 20.3/13.5/1.1/19.1x 100%/95%/0%/100%30/Shingrix gE GMC 24.8/23.7/1.2/71.9 IU/ml 34.0/16.9/1.1/119.0 x 100%/100%/0%/100%CD4+T gE INF-TNF-IL-2 IL-4 CD40L LZ901 30 2/3/4 CD4+T gE 85%/65%/40%Shingrix75%/50%/10%CD8+T gE LZ901 30 2/3/4/5 CD8+T gE 70%/55%/40%/10%Shingrix 50%/35%/5%/0%LZ901 Shingrix 19 LZ901 Ph3 2023 9 26 LZ901 Ph3 40 CHO Ph3 2.6 40=1:1 100g/0.5mL 2 28 LZ901 40 30 3 gE GMC LZ901 2024H2 Ph3 BLA 2025Q4 20 GSK/Shingrix 50+40+LZ901 2023Q3 Ph3 40 2.6 2024H2 Ph3 BLA 2025Q4 Ph2 Ph1/2 2024 Ph3 2 2026 34 2020 50 4.87 4049 2.07 4049 50 50+Shingrix 1600/2 3200/1400/1400/LZ901 1400/23 20202021 60 4%5%5 23 5 40005000 60+1520%/10%/15%/20%21 22 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E 2032E 50 487 502 515 527 538 548 555 562 568 574 579 584 588 0.02%0.04%0.08%0.2%0.3%0.6%0.8%1.1%1.3%1.3%1.4%1.5%1.5%10%10 20 40 100 173 320 467 599 720 765 811 856 901 10 20 40 60 130 256 383 480 540 536 527 514 496 100%100%100%60%75%80%82%80%75%70%65%60%55%3 6 13 19 42 82 123 153 173 171 169 164 159 40 43 64 83 120 180 230 284 342 406 40%25%20%18%20%25%30%35%40%45%6 6 9 12 17 25 32 40 48 57 3 6 13 25 48 91 134 170 198 204 208 212 215 0.02%0.04%0.08%0.2%0.5%0.9%1.3%1.6%1.9%2.0%2.1%2.2%2.3%15%10 20 40 100 260 480 700 899 1079 1148 1216 1284 1352 10 20 40 60 180 360 540 674 756 746 730 706 676 100%100%100%60%70%75%77%75%70%65%60%55%50%3 6 13 19 58 115 173 216 242 239 233 226 216 40 80 120 160 225 324 402 486 578 676 40%30%25%23%25%30%35%40%45%50%6 11 17 22 31 45 56 68 81 95 3 6 13 25 69 132 195 247 287 295 302 307 311 0.02%0.04%0.08%0.2%0.6%1.2%1.7%2.1%2.5%2.7%2.8%2.9%3.1%20%10 20 40 100 347 640 933 1199 1439 1530 1621 1712 1802 10 20 40 60 208 416 627 779 864 842 811 770 721 100%100%100%60%60%65%67%65%60%55%50%45%40%3 6 13 19 67 133 201 249 276 269 259 247 231 40 139 224 307 420 576 689 811 942 1081 40%40%35%33%35%40%45%50%55%60%6 19 31 43 59 81 96 113 132 151 3 6 13 25 86 164 243 308 357 366 373 378 382 01 02 03 VZV 35/1000 310/1000 2.5%5.0%VZV 50 511/1000 9%34%PHN 30%50%1 10 Shingrix HPV GSK Shingrix 2017Q4 Merck Zostavax 10 7.84 2022 29.58+72%2026 40 GSK Shingrix 2019 2023 0.3%LZ901 2023Q3 Ph3 2024H2 Ph3 BLA 2025Q4 Ph2 Ph1/2 2024 Ph3 2032 50 15%300 GSK+LZ901 Ph1 Shingrix Ph3 2025Q4-B 24 GSK 2023 10 9 GSK GSK GSK RSV GSK 2023 10 8 2026 12 31 2024202634.4/68.8/103.2 200 GSK Shingrix 2022 30+72%Shingrix 2019 2023 20232025 94.96/119.74/143.40 PE 14/11/9x 25 LZ901 III 2001 11 LZ901 VZV gE-IgG Fc VZV 4 Shingrix AS01B 90%Zostavax 30 Shingrix 2023 1 II III II I/II LZ901 2023 5 II LZ901/07 1/2/3 23.7%/6.0%/1.0%4 2023Q3 III 2024H2 BLA 2025Q4 LZ901 LZ901 2023Q3 III 2025 2 LZ901 20232025-2.29/-3.47/-4.24 26 2023 1 4 2023Q3 18 40 VZV 4.3 lg PFU 1369/40 VE 57.6%45/65 PHN VE 62.8%/62.9%2023 2023H1 25 2023 2023Q3 1.882.39 35.6%72.9%102.2%157.0%2023Q3 6.47.4 Q2 WHO Oka MRC-5 BH-2 36 5 27002800 25%30%2022 9.57-6.2%88.07%-0.57pp 2020H2 2022 11.40-34.7%79.83%-7.19pp 27 28 23/10/23/PEROE22APEG23E 22A 23E 24E 25E 22A 23E 24E 25E300122.SZ 55.24 1326 75.39 94.96 119.74 143.40 19 14 11 9 31.1%0.6 2480.HK-B 33.05 67-7.25-2.29-3.48-4.23-77.4%-688276.SH 60.50 250 1.82 4.58 7.04 9.46 157 55 35 26 5.1%1.2 Wind Wind 29 6 12 6 12 A 300 000300.SH 899001.CSI(HSI.HI)500(SPX.GI)IXIC.GI 20%10%-20%10%10%10%10%10%125 36 518046 0755-82130833 1199 1 12 200135 6 9 100032
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