20231206_国泰君安_奢侈品行业龙头业绩跟踪：海外美奢龙头韧性仍显_21页.pdf

2010203040YBYwPmRpMoPrPnOqNtMoPbRbP7NtRoOtRoNfQpOpNlOrRpQbRpPwPwMpNmNNZmPtM323Q3 23Q3 2021-2022 2023Q3 23Q3/FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 LVMH 10%15%-17%44%23%17%17%9%8%15%-7%41%29%23%28%16%26%16%-18%35%15%1%3%-9%3%27%2%-8%27%19%22%19%5%6%-3%-32%31%3%11%18%4%11%-6%15%18%13%14%11%16%9%-4%13%9%-10%-8%4%-11%9%3%-19%10%6%7%10%-2%7%2%-11%16%20%0%-3%-3%5%-8%4%21%13%-2%19%-2%3%0%-9%-1%30%18%10%-35%-2%3%-30%10%12%8%5%-1%-1%8%-5%12%28%18%7%3%0%10%-8%23%19%20%14%24%40118%13%-34%156%17%30%15%9%-9%76%38%36%-50%0%50%100%150%200%0500010000150002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1LVMH LVMHyoy yoy YOY10%15%-17%44%23%17%13%1%8%15%-7%41%29%22%22%7%26%16%-18%35%15%2%2%-13%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%020000400006000080000100000LVMH LVMHyoy yoy YOY LVMH 2020 2022-2023H1 LVMH23H1 30%23Q3 Q3 16%LVMH Q3 9%2023H1 LVMH 50123 2021-2022 23Q3 LVMH Q3 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1 2023Q2 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222-4%107%13%154 210 18%-28%-31%15 104-51%-23%-50%8665-15%32%8%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q12023Q22023Q3-5%0%-2%0%10%0%-5%-16%2%9%-18%-23%6%10%12%-9%0%2%-8%-13%-13%18%8%11%1%1%-30%-31%49%-11%-11%8%4%8%4%19%65%-3%2%-8%4%18%-6%23%-10%21%34%-6%8%-13%13%29%0%-1%2%4%8%-0%4%-8%9%9%-9%-9%-13%20%9%-3%28%-46%74%87%37%-8%-12%-9%9%6%30%14%27%3%21%0%9%-15%28%28%59%4%34%-20%-19%-1%14%-7%17%0%24%,7%17%-1%15%9%-1%37%30%1502LVMH 2017-2021+LVMH 2022Q2 LVMH 0.001.002.003.004.005.00LVMH CAC400.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.401.60-DAX0.000.501.001.502.00 SMI 1602 2017-2021 2017-2020 2022 2023 22 0.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.401.60 100 0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.00 5000.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.401.601.80 2251702 Pettm 35-40 x PEttm 35x 25-30 x LVMH PEttm 20 x PE 25x Q3 Pettm 35-40 x wind LVMH-2018/12/31 18%21%17%-17%-17%22%10%39%15%21%-3%-13%3%2%2019/12/31 39%13%23%-2%-29%8%32%-5%3%-13%-17%-11%-22%40%2020/12/31 31%39%10%6%-8%27%13%-21%5%6%46%21%1%23%2021/12/31 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8.97 10.98 13.34 22 18 15 600809.SH 229.0 8.36 10.37 12.79 27 22 18 000596.SZ 244.1 8.16 10.11 12.28 30 24 20 603369.SH 51.8 2.56 3.19 3.81 20 16 14 603198.SH 71.8 2.84 3.64 4.55 25 20 16 603919.SH 25.3 0.73 1.03 1.32 35 24 19 603605.SH 98.492.86 3.52 4.2534 28 23 600223.SH 9.930.39 0.39 0.4525 25 222367.HK 32.431.34 1.73 2.1824 19 15 2145.HK 19.550.85 1.10 1.3823 18 14191 2 3 20 E-mail:03THANKS FORLISTENING