20231122_东方证券_房地产行业2024年度投资策略：预计行业指标降幅收窄_28页.pdf

|0 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 2023 Q2 11-12 16 7 8+10/-22.0%/-18.0%300 2014-2015 2024 21 3.1 10 3440 2145+24-25 500 0.9-1.5 2024/-8.2%/-8.4%/-0.3%/-6.6%+A(000002)(600383)(001979)(600048)(03900)(002244)(01109)(00688)(00123)(01908)(600266)(000090)/2023 11 22 S0860521070001 021-63325888*3267 S0860518050001 BQJ932 2023 38 2023-09-25 2023 37 2023-09-18 2023 8 2023-09-17 2024 2 2023.5.6 14-15.6.9.12.14.14.15.17.18.18.22 2024.24.26.26 WUCXzQsPmPnMoQnOtOqPqR6McMaQnPnNtRsRlOpOqRfQmOpM9PoPtNwMnPqOuOnOxO 3 1 10-11.0%-7.8%.5 2 10-21.1%-23.2%.5 3 2022 1 4=100.5 4.7 5 2023 10.7 6 2014-2015.8 7.9 8.9 9 70-7.9 10.10 11.10 12.10 13.10 14.11 15 11.11 16.11 17 70%.11 18 70%.11 19%.12 20%.12 21 70/.12 22 70/.12 23 1-10-20.5%.13 24 300.13 25 40.13 26 36.13 27 36.13 28.14 29.14 30 TOP50-.14 31 TOP50-.14 32 TOP30.15 33.15 34.15 4 35+.16 36.17 37 36.17 38 2021.17 39.25 40.25 41.25 42.25 1 2023 7.6 2.6 3 2023 9.8 4 2023 7.16 5 2023.18 6 21 2019-2021.19 7 21.20 8 21.21 9 2022.22 10 2023.22 5 2023 2023 7 2023 Q2 7 4-10 8948 11-12 9517 16 10-11.0%/-8.1%/-11.3%/-21.1%-10.1%/-13.6%/-11.3%/-14.6%1 10-11.0%-7.8%2 10-21.1%-23.2%23 3 23 3 9 3 2022 1 4=100 2023.11.13 Wind-11.0%-7.8%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%2019/1 2020/1 2021/1 2022/1 2023/1-21.1%-23.2%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%2019/1 2020/1 2021/1 2022/1 2023/1 4050607080901001101202022/1 2022/7 2023/1 2023/7()HK Markit iBoxx 6 14-15 7 8 25 8.31 20%30%LPR+20bp 1 2023 7 7.24 7.27 8.25 8.31/20%/30%/LPR-20bp/+20bp 10.21 9 20%30%10 3.88%4.44%186bp 156bp 56bp 2 8.30 30%40%LPR-10bp LPR+30bp 8.30 30%70%()/80%()LPR-10bp LPR+30bp 9.1 35%()/40%()50%()/70%()LPR+35bp LPR+105bp 9.1 35%()/40%()60%()/80%()LPR+55bp LPR+105bp 7 8.31 30%40%LPR-50bp LPR+60bp 8.31 20%30%LPR-40bp LPR+20bp 9.1 30%30%/40%/50%LPR-20bp LPR+60bp 9.1 20%30%LPR-20bp LPR+20bp 9.1 20%20%/30%LPR-20bp LPR+20bp 9.2 20%20%/30%LPR-20bp LPR+20bp 9.2 20%30%LPR-60bp LPR+20bp 9.3 20%30%LPR-50bp LPR+30bp 9.4 20%30%LPR-50bp LPR+60bp 9.5 25%/20%35%/30%LPR-20bp LPR+60bp 9.7 20%30%LPR-20bp LPR+20bp 9.8 20%30%LPR-20bp LPR+20bp 9.8 20%30%LPR-20bp LPR+20bp 9.13 25%35%LPR-20bp LPR+30bp 9.14 25%35%LPR-50bp LPR+20bp 9.18 20%30%LPR-40bp LPR+20bp 9.19 20%30%LPR-20bp LPR+20bp 9.22 25%35%LPR-20bp LPR+30bp 4 5 2023 10 9 3.50%4.00%4.50%5.00%5.50%6.00%6.50%LPR4.38%3.88%3.85%4.88%4.45%4.41%3.00%3.50%4.00%4.50%5.00%8 3 2023 9 9.1 A B C D E F A B C D E 9.1 2 2 9.1 1 9.4+9.7+/200/9.8+/2023 8 1 12 31 90 9.1+3 9.11+9.11+9.11+/9.11 120 9.11 3 9.12 9 8 9.12+9.15+9.19+/9.19 9.19 9.19 9.20+/2 2 1 5 2 9.22+4 9.26+144 9.28+10 1“”10.16+/2/1/25%/35%11.2+2014-2015 2022 2014-2015 LPR 6 2014-2015 2014 10-2015 10 力度 2022 1 力度 165bp 5 LPR 45bp 首套房最低首付30%首套房最低首付20%，二套房最低30%7 8.5-9 LPR-20 bp(95)LPR 9 1 9 4-7 8-10 2 1-10-5.4%-2.2%9 11-12 7 8 9 70-7 2023.11.12-28.8%47.8%43.3%29.7%10.1%-24.9%-33.0%-23.0%-22.8%-22.0%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%010002000300040005000600070001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2023 2022 2021 20202019 23 22-()23 22-()-27.1%37.6%50.7%48.2%29.7%-20.1%-34.6%-24.3%-20.6%-18.0%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%0200040006000800010000120001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2023 2022 2021 20202019 23 22-()23 22-()0501001502002503001/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/12023 2022 2021 2020 2019 10 1-10/-4.2%/-0.8%/-11.2%9 10 10 11 12 13 2023 10 5.5 23H1 1.4%21.0 23H1 2.1 10 23H1 2.7%2.8%15.5/18.1/25.6 23H1 2.1/1.7/2.7-100%0%100%200%300%400%2020/12020/42020/72020/102021/12021/42021/72021/102022/12022/42022/72022/102023/12023/42023/72023/10 300003500040000450005000055000600006500001002003004005006002020/12020/42020/72020/102021/12021/42021/72021/102022/12022/42022/72022/102023/12023/42023/72023/10/10000120001400016000180002000005001000150020002500300035002020/12020/42020/72020/102021/12021/42021/72021/102022/12022/42022/72022/102023/12023/42023/72023/10/90001000011000120001300014000150000500100015002000250030002020/12020/42020/72020/102021/12021/42021/72021/102022/12022/42022/72022/102023/12023/42023/72023/10/11 14 1-10 11+22.5%9-10 70 2023 10 14 301.5 6.7%77.7%6.2%2.1pct/15 11 16 17 70%18 70%0.05.010.015.020.025.030.00100002000030000400005000060000700002021/1 2021/7 2022/1 2022/7 2023/1 2023/7-13%103%60%64%69%-2%-15%-10%4%16%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%0.05.010.015.020.01 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 20212022 2023 20231651701751801851901952002050204060801001202021/1 2021/7 2022/1 2022/7 2023/1 2023/7()-10.00-5.000.005.0010.0015.002011/12012/12013/12014/12015/12016/12017/12018/12019/12020/12021/12022/12023/1-1.50-1.00-0.500.000.501.001.502.002011/12012/12013/12014/12015/12016/12017/12018/12019/12020/12021/12022/12023/1 12 Q2 70 19 5 21/6/5 6 9 10 19%20%21 70/22 70/300 1-10 3.5 20.5%2022 23.3%2021 2022 2023 1-10 300-23.5%/-27.2%/-33.1%-5.5%/-28.5%/-24.1%40 6-2.00-1.000.001.002.003.004.00-2.00-1.000.001.002.003.004.005.006.00 0102030405060702011/12011/72012/12012/72013/12013/72014/12014/72015/12015/72016/12016/72017/12017/72018/12018/72019/12019/72020/12020/72021/12021/72022/12022/72023/12023/7 0102030405060702011/12011/72012/12012/72013/12013/72014/12014/72015/12015/72016/12016/72017/12017/72018/12018/72019/12019/72020/12020/72021/12021/72022/12022/72023/12023/7 13 23 1-10-20.5%24 300 25 40 36 1-10-30.4%/-24.3%/-27.2%/-21.7%36 2022 26 36 27 36-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%0200004000060000800001000002019/2 2020/2 2021/2 2022/2 2023/2-33.1%-24.1%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%2020/1 2021/1 2022/1 2023/1-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%2020/12 2021/6 2021/12 2022/6 2022/12 2023/6 2023/12 6 6-6 0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%2021/1 2021/7 2022/1 2022/7 2023/1 2023/736 0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%2021/1 2021/7 2022/1 2022/7 2023/1 2023/7 14 6 3-4 6 4 9 10 41.1%9 3 1-10 23.0%13.9%28 29 6 30 TOP50-31 TOP50-32%12%28%30%6%-28%-37%-38%-30%-28%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%050001000015000200001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2023 2022 20212020 23 23-36%-1%18%2%-13%-38%-37%-41%-29%-41%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%0200040006000800010000120001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2023 2022 20212020 23 23-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%2021/1 2021/7 2022/1 2022/7 2023/1 2023/7 0%20%40%60%80%100%15 32 TOP30/33 34 2023.11.13 Wind 2023.11.13 Wind 23Q4+2197 24 Q1-Q4 2144/2028/1384/933 23 254 Q4 2-3 2023年1月 2023年2月 2023年3月 2023年4月 2023年5月 2023年6月 2023年7月 2023年8月 2023年9月 2023年10月2023年前10月累计同比企业性质2022年排名2023年前10月排名排名变化 4.4%43.0%30.9%36.6%7.5%-21.3%-6.1%-18.6%-6.2%-23.0%1.4%央国企 2 1 1-19.6%2.6%2.6%8.5%7.1%-23.4%-34.6%-27.0%-7.8%-0.8%-9.9%混合所有制 3 2 1-10.8%153.0%89.7%67.1%11.2%-23.6%-31.6%-16.3%23.0%-19.9%13.5%央国企 5 3 2 5.0%146.7%85.7%119.2%54.0%-32.2%-38.7%-8.9%-13.3%0.4%14.1%央国企 4 4 0 4.1%124.0%53.4%169.1%65.2%-28.2%-15.8%-18.2%-42.2%-16.0%9.1%央国企 6 5 1-25.7%-10.9%-50.1%-5.6%-38.9%-54.1%-63.6%-60.2%-81.1%-80.8%-49.3%民企 1 6-5 0.7%87.0%32.4%42.1%7.8%-29.2%-36.4%-41.7%-24.6%-30.5%-8.5%民企 9 7 2 10.0%37.4%74.8%100.0%7.6%-46.5%-55.7%-51.0%-20.4%-17.8%-8.7%混合所有制 8 8 0 28.6%24.1%98.7%212.9%37.6%13.2%-7.3%-26.2%48.6%-36.3%20.8%央国企 10 9 1-38.4%53.7%-3.9%20.0%-6.8%-52.6%-43.3%-41.1%-42.3%-45.8%-27.5%混合所有制 7 10-3 16.5%60.5%126.4%88.9%108.1%-47.0%-9.5%-19.5%-28.4%-23.1%11.9%民企 13 11 2 0.0%101.9%37.1%40.7%57.6%-30.8%-39.3%-69.1%-7.6%-5.3%-1.0%央国企 12 12 0 76.3%385.6%256.9%6.3%49.6%-1.3%42.4%21.3%-40.2%-20.5%32.8%央国企 16 13 3 19.3%293.5%148.6%75.6%6.3%-17.0%-12.1%-20.3%66.5%-23.8%33.3%央国企 18 14 4-14.2%-10.4%19.1%-33.0%9.2%-22.9%-16.8%-42.5%-27.3%8.6%-14.1%混合所有制 14 15-1-61.4%346.7%204.1%253.6%11.7%-49.3%-31.6%-28.8%-23.6%-21.6%1.9%央国企 15 16-1-74.1%-51.4%-49.4%-40.6%-39.4%-50.0%-53.6%-61.0%9.9%-51.2%-50.5%民企 11 17-6-26.5%-30.5%-33.8%-20.7%-36.5%-52.1%-44.9%-36.3%-31.1%-33.5%-35.7%民企 19 18 1-40.5%-5.9%-30.8%-17.8%-35.2%-59.2%-70.8%-70.4%-46.6%-52.1%-46.4%民企 17 19-2-2.7%46.9%93.5%101.4%98.6%16.0%-17.3%-30.1%-11.5%-38.4%13.2%央国企 28 20 8-13.3%26.8%49.8%28.6%-19.8%-37.1%-45.6%-25.3%-31.3%-44.9%-14.7%民企 24 21 3-30.2%106.4%334.9%74.1%71.0%-28.2%7.8%32.5%4.9%-39.6%34.8%民企 42 22 20 12.6%-10.0%67.4%36.2%68.3%-15.9%-31.2%-45.5%-11.2%-51.1%2.5%民企 23 23 0-34.8%-32.7%21.1%-23.2%-13.1%-37.5%-60.5%-56.8%-44.2%-37.7%-31.7%央国企 21 25-4-36.8%22.4%150.6%135.5%59.7%15.3%24.7%-13.7%-39.4%40.1%36.1%央国企 43 26 17 104.2%485.7%290.9%244.4%86.2%-29.3%0.0%-43.8%-47.6%-60.9%31.4%央国企 40 27 13-53.6%36.8%241.9%10.3%-7.0%-31.3%-55.5%14.2%112.5%38.9%7.8%央国企 37 28 9-26.7%35.9%19.6%2.9%-32.0%-48.6%-72.3%-78.3%-68.3%-71.1%-42.2%混合所有制 20 29-9 82.3%-7.2%-4.2%112.0%-54.1%25.0%-11.5%-9.2%-46.7%27.9%2.0%央国企 41 30 1101002003004005006000102030405060702019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q4 0200400600800100005101520253035402019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q4 16 35+2023.11.12 2023 11 2023 11 1=7.1771 Wind 7 16 8 10 4 2023 7/2023.7.10 2024 12 31 2024 12 31 1 2024 12 31 2023.7.19 2023.8.1 2023“16”2023.8.4 2023.8.18 2023.8.27 2023.10.21 2023.10.26 4 REITs 2023.10.31 2023.11.8 2023.11.8 05001000150020002500 17 Wind 2023 1-10 4036 9 2022 36 36 37 36 Wind-2023-TOP20 2022 2023 38 2021 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%01002003004005006007008002020/1 2021/1 2022/1 2023/1 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2021 2022 2023.1-10 2021 2022 2023.1-10 2021 2022 2023.1-10 2022 2023.1-10 3158 3013 2619 1490 1442 1630 47%48%62%-5%14%1432 1296 838 632 417 440 44%32%53%-10%78%1649 1691 1456 1119 824 695 68%49%48%0%67%3695 2948 2641 1379 1209 1129 37%41%43%-20%14%2666 2128 1483 1592 596 559 60%28%38%-20%-9%1691 1539 1323 522 610 452 31%40%34%-9%78%1219 1202 1121 170 374 376 14%31%34%-1%86%3268 2926 2473 2139 1279 814 65%44%33%-10%9%5349 4573 3683 1844 1613 1190 34%35%32%-15%1%1152 1250 1210 579 434 361 50%35%30%9%101%6278 4170 3124 1911 922 800 30%22%26%-34%-10%2901 2016 1517 1528 483 305 53%24%20%-31%32%2356 1550 1220 552 182 161 23%12%13%-34%43%2867 2218 1329 617 226 111 22%10%8%-23%0%2338 1160 662 767 28 25 33%2%4%-50%-30%5580 3575 1613 1416 61 58 25%2%4%-39%-49%1180 650 586 355 203 14 30%31%2%-42%11%2903 1323 924 384 25 10 13%2%1%-52%-4%2473 1240 608 878 31 7 36%3%1%-50%-27%5974 1693 758 1160 1 6 19%0%1%-72%-54%18 4 7 7 5 2023/2023.4.28“”2023.6.8“”2023.7.21 2023.7.24“”2023.7.28 2023.7.31 2023.8.1 2023.9.5 43 2023.10.12 162 2023.10.31 2023.11.11 1 21 2021 21 4 19 2 2021 8 31/20%2/50%5%3 4 21 6 21 2019-2021 2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021 4231 4699 5035 1696 1789 1880 5204 6047 6789 3838 3939 4139 939 971 1107 3371 3657 4486 3060 3563 3013 827 929 821 4517 5193 4711 4439 4352 4355 6105 6143 6198 5129 5071 5391 3102 3294 3626 1465 1539 1736 3275 3857 4868 2607 2845 3142 3531 3680 3644 3845 4471 4686 2728 2609 2770 1479 1307 1435 2274 2114 2323 2966 2777 3255 3332 2646 2759 4751 3769 4158 797 871 972 712 880 659 1370 2017 1630 2465 2624 2429 2639 2560 1857 2990 3294 2623 3397 3575 3628 1514 1699 2236 3924 4595 6589 2147 2290 2343 2134 2165 1962 2653 2895 2903 2501 2631 2720 1321 1325 1511 2511 3270 4064 1175 1236 1223 1454 1381 1093 1481 1571 1267 1804 2045 1982 1652 1654 1645 2247 2217 2267 1577 1708 1928 1246 1336 1548 1381 1572 1957 1668 1868 2236 2335 2380 2606 2021 2197 2620 620 622 531 965 769 609 957 728 534 3350 3429 3089 3593 3426 2699 3404 3369 2609 2096 2264 2149 1916 1879 1298 2145 2128 1408 711 753 729 659 715 688 789 951 945 132194 141443 147602 171558 176086 179433 159725 173613 181930 21 51280 53994 55293 41512 41173 39993 60239 64983 68828 21 38.8%38.2%37.5%24.2%23.4%22.3%37.7%37.4%37.8%Wind 20 2700 3440 2145(1)=*21 3.1 0.9 2.2 a)21 0.87 b)10%20%22%1000 28%25%500 25%35%25%-30%25%10%*20%+22%*25%=7.5%c)92.17 1/3 7 21 21 8699 2965 5734 10%20%/92.17 22%25%/30.72 30735 8895 21840(2)=*+=*21 3.4 1.1 2.4 a)21 40%60%70%1.7 21 b)10000/7000/5000/1000/(3)=*/1-*21 2.7 2.1 0.7 1.5 a)b)1.7 41%50%80%8 21 21 30735 8895 21840 40%70%20900 6048 14851+/10000/7000 5000 18441 5337 13104/1000 34403 10816 23587 41%50%26813 8468 18345 80%21451 6774 14676 10 3440 2145 2022 2.6%2022 1.6%22 9 2022 20%30%40%50%60%/14 0.6%0.9%1.1%1.4%1.7%12 0.7%1.0%1.3%1.7%2.0%10 0.8%1.2%1.6%2.0%2.4%8 1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%6 1.3%2.0%2.7%3.4%4.0%Wind 2023 4 7 8 25 14 9 4 10 2023/2023.4.28“”2023.7.24“”2023.8.25(14)2023.9.4 2023.9.5 2023.9.28 2023 10 1 1%2023.10.12 2023.10.31 2023.11.11 23 14+9 4 14+2021 7 14 14 1+2 3+4 5 300 35 4 27 4 2021 24 2024-2025 500 0.9-1.5 2008-2018 2500 220+80 140 2-3 2010-2020 1233 100 10%2%900 2021 2022 94 266 1%11%2023 204 9 12 72%2021 500 2022 10 22 14%1 24-25 200 125%250 24-25 10%20%-12 250 500 30005000/60 0.91.5 2 10%24-25 8%15%400 220+180 3 200 24-25 5%10%320 200+120 2024 2024/-8.2%/-8.4%/-0.3%/-6.6%1 24 Q1 23 Q2 2 23 70 24 3 24 4 21 23 24-8.2%-8.4%-0.3%-6.6%25 39 40 23.11 23.11 Wind Wind 41 42 23.11 Wind 23.11 Wind-8.2%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%2023/12023/22023/32023/42023/52023/62023/72023/82023/92023/102023/112023/122024/12024/22024/32024/42024/52024/62024/72024/82024/92024/102024/112024/12-8.4%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%2023/12023/22023/32023/42023/52023/62023/72023/82023/92023/102023/112023/122024/12024/22024/32024/42024/52024/62024/72024/82024/92024/102024/112024/12-0.3%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%2023/12023/22023/32023/42023/52023/62023/72023/82023/92023/102023/112023/122024/12024/22024/32024/42024/52024/62024/72024/82024/92024/102024/112024/12-6.6%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%2023/12023/22023/32023/42023/52023/62023/72023/82023/92023/102023/112023/122024/12024/22024/32024/42024/52024/62024/72024/82024/92024/102024/112024/12-26 1 A(000002)(600383)(03900)(002244)2(001979)(600048)(01109)(00688)(00123)(01908)3+(600266)(000090)/27 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer