资源描述
1电踏车行业报告：出口主导，内需蓄势两轮车三部曲系列之电踏 车 2023 04 25()()S0350521120001 S 2 300 1M 3M 12M-2.9%-6.5%23.9%300-1.1%-4.8%-0.8%-0.13530.01290.16110.30930.45750.6057 300 2023-01-13 2023-03-15WUBYvMnQsRmNrPpMtOpQnM6MbP9PsQpPoMsRlOoOrNfQsQsM9PoPoQuOtOxPuOtPoR3 2023/04/24 EPS PE 2022 2023E 2024E 2022 2023E 2024E603489.SH 91.83 4.26 5.22 6.60 25.06 17.59 13.91 300994.SZ 19.00 0.86 1.32 1.72 22.82 14.44 11.03 600679.SH 8.06/603776.SH 14.16-0.29/-43.15/Wind 4 1 1993-2011 1993 2 2012-2021 23%50%2021 48.7%2019 28.8 2021 55 Accell ODM OEM 5+/OEM-ODM-OBM 6 1.1+1.2+1.3 1.4+2.1 2.2 2.3 3.1 Accell 3.2 3.3 ROE4.1 4.2 4.3 7 1.1+1.2+1.3 1.4+81.1.1 4-8 435mm 635mm 635mm 68 160 91.1.2+400-1500 4000-20000 2000-5000 1001002003004005006007002021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013欧洲 日本 美国1.2.1 CONEBI Statista LEVA BIKE europe ZIV 1 1993-2011 1993 2 2012-2021 506 2021 79 2021 55 2017 65.6 28.06%2003 BOSCH 2021 506 2013 2014 100 2012 2015 10 19931993 11506 454 340 278 209 167 136 114 91 85 72 01002003004005006002021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 20112011-2021 EPAC 1.3.1+2021 23%2002 70%2020 195 38%2006 2011 2021 CARG 19.5%2021 506 12.0%23%CONEBI 50%CONEBI ZIV BikeEU Statista(Le Plan v lo)2015-2020 1.5 2021-2026 2.5 NRVP:NationaleRadverkehrsplan 2001 2012 2021 2021 NRVP3.0 GPS 0.27 0.19/km CARG 19.5%12 2015 2021 2021 270 2015 1/3 2015 54 2021 200 65.6 2021 39%43%ZIV 50%,43%,23%,12%,5%,5%,3.5%,3%,2.5%,3%2021 1.3.2 2021 43%ZIV 0102030405060700501001502002503003504004502015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021自 行 车 销 量（万辆）电 踏 车 销 量（万辆）电 踏 车 销 售额（亿欧 元）2015-2021 131.3.3 2021 48.7%2021 79.3 7.5%48.7%2015 2021 CAGR 7.8%363401020304050607080901002022 20152015-2022 65 65 46.8 54.0 61.6 66.6 69.8 73.8 79.3 29.6%33.3%38.1%43.1%42.9%45.4%48.7%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0204060801001202015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20212015-2021/CAGR 7.8%141.3.4 9 2020 88%2015 7.6/2020 9.0/89.1%2015 75.5%0102030405060702015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2015-2020 1923 23 2429320204060801002020 2019 2018 2017 2016 20152015-2020 0200004000060000800001000002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020电踏车 轻 型 自行 车 其他2015-2020 151.3.5+2017 2021 CAGR 25.7%2012 2020 2021 55 26%2017 2021 CAGR 25.7%2021 2017 96%LEV A BicycleRetailer 2021 11 19 Build Back Better Act 30%81/5543.728.826.32201020304050602021 2020 2019 2018 20172017-2021 CAGR 25.7%161.3.6 15007.386.205.344.606.865.854.737.216.207.336.477.807.097.409.718.249.997.208.808.657.388.238.737.417.718.429.227.938.727.6210.157.879.169.528.928.3810.2602468101251.2463.3569.5516.7827.1824.878.21.070.971.451.870.017.157.228.211020304050607080901002020 2021 2022 2020-2022 1.11.21.31.41.51.61.7 2020 5 2020 10 2021 3 2021 8 2022 1 2022 6 2022 11 2020-2022 2021 2022 2022 91%1300 1500 171.4.1+0102030405060702020 2019 2018 2017 20162016-2020 3-10km 2035 2025 5 38.5%2020 2014,19-59 7%60 1758.2968.41092.250405001000150020002020 2014 7.7%6.9%5.2%2.4%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%2020 181.4.2+GDP 2021 38411.1 23%2500/39312.7 48.7%/70248.6/12556.3 Statista BikeEU BicycleRetailer 19 2.1 2.2 2.3 202.1.1 2015 10 TSINOV A 2016 6 2017 5 PESU 2017 5 2018 7 5 E-Bike 啰 100 5.8 2020 9 ss1000 2021 11 5th Wheel 5th Wheel D1 TSINOV A E-Bike ss1000/5th Wheel/212.1.2 3-7 3-1 3-7 YS500 VFLY 01 HIMO Z20 HIMO C26 5th Wheel 5th Wheel D1 3-1 YS5007699 VFLY 016699 HIMO Z203499 HIMO C264199 5th wheel D1 Pro3499 Ostrich5999 999 CROSS CONNECT2999WABASH RT4199 CROSSCORE RC3099 YDX-MORO 055499 ROAM E+GTS3799 REIGN E+19699 EXPLORE E+3 GTS3899 TRANCE X ADVANCED E+111299 22 2.2.1 232.2.2 BBS MAX 242.2.3+25 500 1,800 15%-25%2018 43.22%2.2.4 A 250 B 108.06 C 48.06 15.68 32.38 60 B/A 43.22%C/B 44.47%2018 262.2.5 ODM OEM ODM OBM ODM OBM OEM ODM 272.2.6 EUROBIKE INTERBIKE ISPO/282.2.7 ODM 开始业务部提交销售订单评审制作各类生产表单成本复核制定生产计划进料检验加工备料生产加工入库不通过通过通过不通过通过结束通过不通过成品检测 292.3.1 2016 1 OEM ODM OBM 2017 8 2017 2 200 2018 4 1 400 600 1200 2017 9 20 2020 25%1,000 2021 30 2018 8 23 160 25%160 2018 9 2000 10%2019 5 25%24 6 18 2019 12 12 24 25%301 2018 9 2019 1 18 18.8%79.3%2019 8 28 0%48.5%2019 1 1993 9 2.3.2 25%18.8%79.3%313.1 Accell 3.2 3.3 ROE 32 PAS PowerAssist System New PAS MH Super PAS LittleMore B Plus TRCITY Wabash RT 3.1.1 YAMAHA.1955 1993 1998 New PAS MH Super”PAS LittleMore”2001 PASSuperLight U 2003 Takara B Plus”2012 2014 TRCITY 2022 Wabash RT.YAMAHA 333.1.2 YAMAHA 48.956.964.86782.116%14%3%23%0%5%10%15%20%25%01020304050607080902017 2018 2019 2020 2021YAMAHA YOY 2021 1823 2021 82.1 23%YAMAHA 8.7%14.6%23.7%41.0%12.0%2021 YAMAHA 343.1.3 Accell Accell Haibike Winora Ghost Batavus Koga Lapierre Raleigh Sparta Babboe Carqon juncker bike parts XLC Accell Accell 35 Accell 3000 Accell 80 2021 85.6 44 41.6 2017 2021 81.938.243.447.34448.170.950.9 42.441.60204060801001201402017 2018 2019 2020 2021Accell 3.1.4 Accell Accell haibikeWinoraGhostBatavus363.1.5 Giant 1972 1994 YAMAHA/.1972 1994 9921 1997 2002 ONCE 2002 2003 2010 2021.371191241211351481621881%4%-2%12%10%9%16%-5%0%5%10%15%20%0501001502002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2015-2021 YOY 5%39%2021 188 16%E+Cycling 4000-6000 Trance X Advanced E+Stormguard E+2 3.1.6 Giant Wind e+Cycling Trance X Advanced E+Stormguard E+Accell 22%39%24%5%10%2021 383.2.1 2003 A.2003 2007 2008 2012 2015 MAX 2017 2018 2019 11 11 A 2020 2021.393.2.2 50%2017-2020 70%2021-2022 2016-2021 40%2015 2019-2020 60%30%52%56%58%62%63%70%48%44%42%38%37%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Wind 4.566.647.899.8115.4213.67747166705848010203040506070800246810121416182017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022%44.142.447.550.147.648.841.839.542.843.334.331.2001020304050602017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022%(%)40 2000 2021 8 80 3.2.3 ODM.2000 2008 2009()2011 2010 2016 2019:2021.413.2.4 ODM 98%Wind ODM ODM OBM OBM 2022 17.5%2017-2022 2%3.82.11.52.21.32.896.297.9 98.5 97.898.797.20%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 10.0%10.9%15.6%12.6%17.5%68.5%65.5%57.2%60.9%51.5%0.9%0.7%0.6%0.5%0.2%20.7%22.9%26.6%26.1%30.8%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022OBM ODM OEM 贸易模式423.2.5 3.616.3311.022663.4 2922.4 1612.7 0500100015002000250030000246810122018 2019 2020/2018-2020/Wind 2017-2022 0.5/1/1.9/1.8/3.6/4.6 2020 2018-2020 3.6/6.3/11.0 2019 2020 75%/74.6%2663/2922/1613/2018-2020 2021 10.9 13.3 17.4 20.2 12.6 13.5 16.8 14.9 16.1 16.4 12.0 11.6 05101520252017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022(%)%0.5 1.0 1.9 1.8 3.6 4.6 3.0%5.3%10.3%7.8%9.6%19.5%0%5%10%15%20%25%0.01.02.03.04.05.02017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 43 Wind=/1 0.5 2022=/1 0.8 2017-2020 1 2021 1 2022 3.3.1 0112232017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.42017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022收现比 443.3.2 ROE:Wind 2018-2020 ROE 2021 2022 2021-2022 2018-2020 ROE ROE 2021 ROE 24.37%5.6%2022 ROE 18.51%051015202530354045012342018 2019 2020 2021 2022 ROE()(%)(%)0102030405060700.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82018 2019 2020 2021 2022 ROE()(%)(%)45 4.1 4.2 4.3 464.1.2017 209 2021 506 2021 23%50%2021 79.3 48.7%2019 28.8 2021 55 CONEBI Statista LEVA 47 2023-2025 33.40/40.17/45.96 6.28/7.94/9.39 EPS 5.22/6.60/7.81 PE 17.59/13.91/11.77X 4.2.1 wind 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2,849.96 3,339.86 4,017.00 4,596.43(%)7.66 17.19 20.27 14.42 512.13 628.10 794.31 938.93(%)-15.58 22.65 26.46 18.21 4.26 5.22 6.60 7.81 ROE(%)17.92 18.01 18.55 17.99 P/E 25.06 17.59 13.91 11.77 P/B 4.50 3.17 2.58 2.12 P/S 4.52 3.31 2.75 2.40 EV/EBITDA 18.80 12.19 8.94 6.51 48 2023/2024/2025 31.78/37.35/47.02 2023 2024 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2,849.96 3,339.86 4,017.00 4,596.43 yoy 7.7%17.2%20.3%14.4%1,367.47 1,580.00 1,980.00 2,312.75 yoy-11.3%15.5%25.3%16.8%48.82%47.7%48.0%48.0%510,453 550000 660000 745,800.00 1,132,272 1500000 1875000 2,156,250.00 516.03 530.00 636.00 718.68 yoy-1.0%2.7%20.0%13.0%32.01%32.00%32.00%32%781.14 1,000.00 1,116.00 1,200.00 yoy 64%28%12%8%5.3%6.0%6.2%6.3%179.89 224.86 280.00 360.00 yoy17.66%18.00%18.00%18.00%179.89 224.86 280.00 360.00 1.39 1.60 1.90 2.30 4.2.2 wind 49;4.3 50 1(wind 603489.SH 91.83 2023/04/24 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 1575.23 2275.62 2884.35 4039.11 640.99 861.95 878.75 1010.90 375.42 531.95 541.96 677.57 209.63 210.77 236.93 256.35 2801.26 3880.30 4541.99 5983.93 458.29 512.56 544.30 557.09 193.18 151.91 127.15 106.29 137.64 136.14 134.64 133.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3590.37 4680.91 5348.07 6780.45 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 475.10 885.95 724.91 1191.49 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 243.87 295.45 329.35 356.21 718.97 1181.40 1054.26 1547.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.82 12.82 12.82 12.82 12.82 12.82 12.82 12.82 731.79 1194.22 1067.08 1560.52 120.30 120.30 120.30 120.30 2858.58 3486.69 4281.00 5219.93 3590.37 4680.91 5348.07 6780.45 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2849.96 3339.86 4017.00 4596.43 1960.18 2333.24 2761.49 3135.93 20.88 16.70 18.08 18.39 102.94 106.88 124.53 137.89 99.48 103.54 124.53 137.89-39.09-12.00-10.00-10.00/-84.81 96.86 112.48 124.10 585.56 698.66 890.41 1056.72 5.36 30.00 30.00 30.00 590.92 728.66 920.41 1086.72 78.78 100.55 126.10 147.79 512.13 628.10 794.31 938.93 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 512.13 628.10 794.31 938.93 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 350.80 732.40 640.72 1176.77 512.13 628.10 794.31 938.93 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 45.56 50.50 56.53 61.56 20.48 0.00 0.00 0.00-213.40 83.79-180.11 206.27-442.57-32.00-32.00-22.00-266.79-32.00-32.00-22.00-195.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 19.22 0.00 0.00 0.00-320.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00-320.01 0.00 0.00 0.00-394.43 700.40 608.72 1154.77 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E EPS 4.26 5.22 6.60 7.81 BVPS 23.76 28.98 35.59 43.39 P/E 25.06 17.59 13.91 11.77 P/B 4.50 3.17 2.58 2.12 P/S 4.52 3.31 2.75 2.40 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E ROE 17.92%18.01%18.55%17.99%31.22%30.14%31.25%31.77%5.73%5.94%5.95%5.78%17.97%18.81%19.77%20.43%7.66%17.19%20.27%14.42%-15.58%22.65%26.46%18.21%0.79 0.71 0.75 0.68 5.96 4.59 5.92 5.38 7.59 6.28 7.41 6.78 20.38%25.51%19.95%23.02%3.90 3.28 4.31 3.87 3.32 2.80 3.75 3.40 51 300 300 300 300 20%300 10%20%300-10%10%300 10%,WIND 52 R3/国 海 28F 518041 0755-83706353 C1 200023 021-61981300 168 25F 100044 010-88576597 53 前沿报告库是中国新经济产业咨询报告共享平台。行业范围涵盖新一代信息技术、5G、物联网、新能源、新材料、新消费、大健康、大数据、智能制造等新兴领域。为企事业单位、科研院所、投融资机构等提供研究和决策参考。扫一扫免费获取海量报告
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