20230803_海通证券_电子行业研究框架_25页.pdf

SAC S0850523030002 2023 08 03 2 IC ASP&2022 1 2 22 3 VR/AR 2030 49.55%VR/AR 2024 2570/400 Witsview 2023 6 32/43/55/65 34/60/113/155/32/43/55/65 6.3%/5.3%/7.6%/6.9%21.5/23.8/27 41.4/47.8/61.6/0.2%/0.2%/0.0%11.6/14.0/15.6/17.3 24.8/26.3/40.5/38.2/2023 0YDWuNmRmPnMrPpMqNtMrQ7NdNbRpNrRtRmPiNoOwOiNnNsO7NqQzRuOtQwOwMpPsR3 IDM Fabless Foundry EDA;ittbank IC 30-60%IC 15-20%40-70%IC IC IC 30-70%30-50%20-50%10-30%20-60%20-50%4 2022 5800 83%199it WSTS IC 2022 5801 4.4%1772 1344 37%/28%199it WSTS 2022%2021-2023E 2022%5/ATP Gartner 2021 SK wind 22 22 6 evertiq IC Insights 2021 312 123 1865 6.6%IC Insights 27 IDM 96 IC Insights 2026 582 2026 IC 7177 8.1%evertiq IC Insights 7&ASP&8 2022 10 7 BIS EAR 9 2022 1 2 2023 5-21.12%Wind 10 2021 4 2022 4 2023 6-3.20%Wind 11 IC 23Q1 Wind IC%12 2023 IC Insights 2021 35%2022 1817 23 19%1466 Wind IC Insights%21Q3-22Q3 13 23Q3 TrendForce NAND Flash Wafer Q3 Q3 NAND Flash Wafer Q3 NAND Flash Wafer 05%Trendforce NAND 23Q2-23Q3E 23Q2 23Q3E eMMC UFS cosumer-813%mobile-1520%cosumer mobile-813%Enterprise SSD-1318%-510%Client SSD-1520%-813%3D NAND Wafers TLC&QLC-813%+05%NAND Flash-1520%-38%DRAM 23Q2-23Q3E 23Q2 23Q3E PC DRAM DDR4-1520%DDR5-1318%ASP-1520%DDR4-38%DDR5-05%ASP-05%Server DRAM DDR4-1823%DDR5-1318%ASP-1520%DDR4-38%DDR5-05%ASP-05%Mobile DRAM-1318%LPDDR4X-05%LPDDR5X with HKMG+05%Graphics DRAM-1015%-05%Consumer DRAM-1015%-05%DRAM-1318%-05%14 ECIA&ECIA 15 Wind 16 22.04-22.09 Wind%17 2030 49.55%Wind 18 AR/VR Wellsenn XR 2024 VR 2570 AR 400+300%Wellsenn XR VR-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%0500100015002000250030002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E VR%AR 0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%0501001502002503003504004502016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E AR%19 Witsview 2023 6 32/43/55/65 34/60/113/155/32/43/55/65 6.3%/5.3%/7.6%/6.9%21.5/23.8/27 41.4/47.8/61.6/0.2%/0.2%/0.0%11.6/14.0/15.6/17.3 24.8/26.3/40.5/38.2/2023 Wind/20 wind 2023 1 6+28%2022 Wind PMI PMI 21 wind 2022 PMI 2023 Wind PMI 22 2021-2022&Opex&IC/23 SAC S0850523030002 SAC S0850519070001 翀 SAC S0850521080002 SAC S0850521090001 SAC S0850522080003 SAC S0850523070001 24 1.6 6 2.A 500 10%-10%10%-10%6 10%-10%10%-10%25