资源描述
2009 1210 2023 12 09 2024 2023 20.7%PE(Wind)2024-2025 13x/10 x 2023 2894.5+10.5%166.6-15.1%5 9/24 2023/1.4/32.1GW+15.3%/+78.1%6/54GW+47.4%/+54.3%2023/6.1/55.6GW-46.5%/-14.3%9/60GW-38.8%/-28.4%24/15/10GW+66.7%/+66.7%24 65GW+20%GWEC 2022/13.9/8/2.8/2.3GW 42.1%11 345GW 2022 314.7GW 15GW 2030 100GW 2026 GWEC 2026-2030 15.8GW 39.2GW CAGR 25.5%9.6GW 26.4GW CAGR 28.8%GW EPS PE PB 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 42.80 1.72 2.23 3.10 24.90 19.21 13.81 4.56 Wind 2023 12 8 S0360522080001 S0360523020002%()299 0.04()45,638.29 5.25()37,837.47 5.62%1M 6M 12M-8.4%-17.6%-31.0%-2.6%-6.6%-16.9%2023 11 2023-12-08 11 2023-12-07 2024 2023-12-06-31%-18%-6%6%22/12 23/02 23/05 23/07 23/09 23/122022-12-092023-12-08 300 2024 2009 1210 1 2023 2/GW ZXAZyRtOtQpOrPmPrMpQpOaQaO8OmOpPnPtQlOoPpNfQpOqNbRqQzRNZmQoNxNrNyR 2024 2009 1210 3.6 20.6%.6.7.10 24.12/“”.12 24.13.16.18.19/.21.23 2024 2009 1210 4 1.6 2.6 3.7 4.7 5.8 6 2023Q1-3.9 7 2023Q1-3.9 8 2023Q1-3.10 9 2023Q1-3.10 10 2022.11 11/2022.11 12 2022.11 13 2022.11 14 2022.11 15 2022.11 16 GW.12 17.12 18/.12 19.12 20“”.13 21 2023Q1-3.13 22 GW.14 23 GW.14 24/kW.14 25 GW.15 26 GW.15 27 24.15 28 2022.17 29 2022.17 30 GW.17 31.18 32 GW.18 33/km.19 2024 2009 1210 5 34 2023+/GW.19 35.20 36.20 37 2022 2023.11.26.20 38.20 39.21 40+.22 41.22 42.22 43.22 2024 2009 1210 6 20.6%23Q1-3 18.6%10 2023Q1-3 300+0.7%/-4.7%/-14.6%2023 2023.11.21-0.7%/-7.5%/-15.4%2023Q1-3-18.6%2023 2023.11.21-22.3%29 1 iFinD 2023.11.21 23 20.7%II 2023Q1-3/-29.7%/-20.6%2023 2023.11.21/-36.2%/-20.7%2 iFinD 2023.11.21-19%-22%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%前三季度 涨跌幅 今年以来 涨跌幅20.0%1.3%-11.1%-20.6%-22.0%-29.7%27.8%0.5%-13.0%-20.7%-25.2%-36.2%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%电机 电网设备 其他电源设备 风电设备 电池 光伏设备前三季度 涨跌幅 今年以来 涨跌幅 2024 2009 1210 7 PE TTM PE(Wind)2023 11 21 PE TTM 51 53.8%PE TTM 18 2.2%PE TTM 30 86%35/Wind 2024-2025 13x/10 x 15x/12x 3 iFind 2016.1.4-2023.11.21 4 iFinD 2016.1.4-2023.11.21 A 35 8 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%020406080100120140160180200 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%020406080100120140160180 2024 2009 1210 8 5 2023/PE 2023 2024 2025 2023 2024 2025-38%41.9 288 24 17 13 12.1 17.1 22.0-30%19.3 81 15 11 9 5.5 7.5 9.5-15%13.2 326 15 12 10 21.9 27.2 32.4-18%14.1 480 13 11 9 36.7 44.3 53.1-5%3.9 129 14 12 11 9.1 10.5 12.0 4%5.2 72 19 12 9 3.7 5.9 7.6-39%26.1 166 24 15 11 7.1 11.0 15.6-29%62.0 135 40 15 10 3.4 8.9 13.7 36%9.9 92 21 14 10 4.4 6.7 9.1-19%13.2 238 17 12 9 13.7 20.1 25.7-12%7.2 74 17 12 9 4.4 6.4 8.4 7%5.4 48 14 10 8 3.4 4.7 5.9 7%9.5 91 40 29 22 2.2 3.1 4.1-48%14.5 329 8 6 5 40.2 50.8 62.4-1%29.2 351 18 14 11 19.5 25.1 30.9-29%10.9 76 12 9 7 6.2 8.0 10.8-22%9.0 339 13 10 8 25.3 33.5 40.8-16%5.2 69-28%29.7 97 18 12 10 5.4 7.9 10.0-36%13.9 143 22 15 12 6.5 9.6 11.9-20%20.5 44 22 12 8 2.0 3.6 5.2-37%34.7 125 31 24 19 4.0 5.1 6.4 53%41.3 182 68 33 22 2.7 5.6 8.1-16%18.8 56 23 18 14 2.4 3.1 3.9 57%22.7 84 46 32 24 1.8 2.6 3.5 8%10.3 30 23 15 11 1.3 2.0 2.7-20%17.4 292 11 9 7 27.1 33.8 42.3 6%10.0 83 16 12 9 5.0 7.0 9.2 12%18.4 30-38%16.6 75 20 14 11 3.8 5.3 6.6-42%16.3 96 20 15 13 4.8 6.3 7.5-17%24.4 108 20 16 13 5.4 6.8 8.4-12%32.3 138 26 16 11 5.2 8.4 12.4-16%26.4 37 15 10 8 2.5 3.7 4.7-12%31.9 48 22 16 12 2.2 3.1 3.9 Wind 2023.11.21 Wind 2024 2009 1210 9/2023Q1-3 2894.5+10.5%166.6-15.1%2023+39.3%+34%+18.6%+12.6%+7%2023Q1-3+82.5%+62.5%+27.9%+15.6%+7.5%-24.4%-58.1%6 2023Q1-3 7 2023Q1-3 Wind Wind/2023Q1-3 16.6%-1.1pct 6%-1.7pct 2023Q1-3+5.2pct+4.8pct+1.4pct+0.7pct/-0.3pct-0.3pct-5.7pct 2023Q1-3 3.1/2.6/2/0.7/0.3pct 0.2/3.8/6.1pct 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%其他 锚链 塔桩 叶片 铸锻件 海缆 整机 轴承2023Q1-3-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%其他 锚链 铸锻件 塔桩 海缆 轴承 叶片 整机2023Q1-3 2024 2009 1210 10 8 2023Q1-3 9 2023Q1-3 Wind Wind 2023 35 2022-2023 34 2022 1 4 2023 2023 Q1 2-4 5 Q2-Q3 9 9 7GW/2022 2023-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%铸锻件 锚链 其他 塔桩 轴承 叶片 海缆 整机2023Q1-3-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%铸锻件 锚链 其他 轴承 海缆 塔桩 叶片 整机2023Q1-3 2024 2009 1210 11 10 2022 11/2022 Wind Wind 12 2022 13 2022 Wind Wind 14 2022 15 2022 Wind Wind-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%2022/01/052022/03/052022/05/052022/07/052022/09/052022/11/052023/01/052023/03/052023/05/052023/07/052023/09/052023/11/05-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%2022/01/052022/03/052022/05/052022/07/052022/09/052022/11/052023/01/052023/03/052023/05/052023/07/052023/09/052023/11/05-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%2022/01/052022/03/052022/05/052022/07/052022/09/052022/11/052023/01/052023/03/052023/05/052023/07/052023/09/052023/11/05-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%2022/01/052022/03/052022/05/052022/07/052022/09/052022/11/052023/01/052023/03/052023/05/052023/07/052023/09/052023/11/05-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%2022/01/052022/03/052022/05/052022/07/052022/09/052022/11/052023/01/052023/03/052023/05/052023/07/052023/09/052023/11/05-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%2022/01/052022/03/052022/05/052022/07/052022/09/052022/11/052023/01/052023/03/052023/05/052023/07/052023/09/052023/11/05 2024 2009 1210 12 24/1-10+76.5%2022 37.6GW-20.9%2023 1-10 37.3GW+76.5%Q4 60GW 16 GW 17 23Q1-3/+15.3%/+78.1%/2023Q1-3 32.1GW+78.1%9.9/12/10.2GW+31.2%/+165.5%/+71%1.4GW+15.3%0.5/0.6/0.3GW+41.7%/+13.5%/-8.3%/18/19-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%010203040506070802016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E GW 0100020003000400050006000700080002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4-150%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%050010001500200025002022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%0200400600800100012002022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2024 2009 1210 13 2023Q1-3 2023Q1-3 21.8GW 65%-9.1pct 67.7%/73%/52.7%-1.9pct/-3.5pct/-25.1pct 2023Q1-3/92.2%/91.3%20 21 2023Q1-3 24 23-25 63GW 28 288.7GW 2025 570.4GW CWEA 2021-2022 99.4GW 2023-2025 189GW 63GW 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42021 2022 202386%88%90%92%94%96%98%100%天津上海江苏浙江安徽福建江西重庆四川西藏广西海南云南北京广东贵州湖南湖北山西山东黑龙江陕西辽宁宁夏河南吉林新疆青海河北甘肃蒙西蒙东 2024 2009 1210 14 34.2 16.5 15 14.8 14.2 12.5 10.6GW 22 GW CWEA 23 24+20%2021Q1 3182/kW 2023Q4 2023/11/26 1324/kW 21-22 2 2023Q1-3/55.6/32.1GW-14.3%/+78.1%/60/54GW-28.4%/+71.4%24 65GW+20%23 GW 24/kW 2023Q4 2023/11/26 24/2022 4.1GW-75.9%14.7GW+426.9%23-24 23-25 9/15/10GW-38.8%/+66.7%/-33.3%6/10/15GW+47.4%/+66.7%/+50%0102030405060内蒙甘肃河北广东辽宁广西吉林江苏山东山西黑龙江河南云南青海四川湖南湖北贵州浙江福建重庆安徽宁夏上海海南江西天津北京2021 2022 2023-2025-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%01020304050607080902016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E GW)yoy0500100015002000250030003500/kW)2024 2009 1210 15 25 GW 26 GW CWEA 27 24 MW 600 CZ2 1200 CZ3120 1200 CZ8 50 502 CZ9 1500 5002 I 352 300MW 300 1000 1000 1000 1000 4652 BW 510 G 808 I 504 U 450MW 450 U2-2 298 U 450 3020 H3#30 300 H4#30 300 H5#40 400-200%-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%0246810121416182016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E yoy-200%-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%0246810121416182016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E(GW)yoy 2024 2009 1210 16 H8-1#20 204 H9#20 204 H15#20 196 H17#20 202 85 850 2656 2 504 3 80 800 1 300 1604 A 700 C1 550 1250 DE 400 A 450 850 300 500 502 802 V 250 IV2 200 450 GWEC 2022/1.2/0.5/0.4/0.3GW 2022/13.9/8/2.8/2.3GW 42.1%2024 2009 1210 17 28 2022 29 2022 GWEC GWEC 2030 50/30/21/12.9/7/5.8/3/2GW 131.7GW 2035 18/11GW 11 345GW 2022 314.7GW 30 GW 2027 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 50 30 40 70 21 50 70 12.9 35 5.8 8 18 40 5.9 11 30 7 37 3 2 WindEurope IEA CWEA offshoreWIND 2022 5 2030 65GW 2050 150GW 2022 9 2030 76GW 2023 4 2030 120GW 2050 300GW NSEC 11,57.6%,13.4%,13.4%,5.5%,4.2%,3.9%,48.9%,21.6%,12.5%,4.4%,3.6%,9.0%2024 2009 1210 18 15GW 2030 100GW 31 GW 2022 5 65 2030 150 2050 2022 8 19.6 2030 2022 9 NSEC 76 2030 193 2040 260 2050 2023 4 120 2030 300 2050 CWEA WindEurope Danish Ministry of Climate,Energy and Utilities 50%2026 GWEC 2021-2025 4.2GW 11.8GW CAGR 29.3%3.3GW 6.5GW CAGR 18.4%2026-2030 15.8GW 39.2GW CAGR 25.5%9.6GW 26.4GW CAGR 28.8%32 GW GWEC 0510152025303540452021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2024 2009 1210 19 2023 GW 9-15 40%220kV 35kV 66kV 2022 220kV/330kV/500kV 513/809/1234/km 2023 220kV 500/km 43%3/GW 2023 GW 9-15 GW 33/km 220kV 330kV 500kV 3 500 3 630 3 1000 3 800 3 800 2022 463 563 809 1234 2023 505 428 566 34 2023+/GW 24-25 132.3%/116.3%2022-2025 56.5 198.4 CAGR 52%70.7 223.2 CAGR 46.7%50%2024 125.8%2025 116.3%151010 109990246810121416广东 天津 辽宁 广西 浙江 山东 海南/GW)2024 2009 1210 20 35 36 CWEA GWEC 2022 36%24%23%83%37 2022 2023.11.26 8.9 Inch Cape 220kV 12.1 38 Hollandse Kust West Beta 2022 3 5.30 66kV+220kV Inch Cape 2023Q1 0.14 220kV Baltica 2 2023 5 3.50 66kV Baltica 2 2023 5 12.09 275kV-100%0%100%200%01002003002021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E YoY-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%0501001502002502021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E Yoy,36%,24%,23%,9%,6%,2%,1%2024 2009 1210 21/GW+GW+MW MW 8MW 10MW MW+351t 357t 39 MW MW m)(m)m t)MW(t)A 501 60 8.4 10-20 7.5-8.35 81 1440 172 1#500 56 9.0 12-15 9.6 97.5 1881 209 B2 501.5 59 8.5 15-19 7.5 77.5 1221 144 175 500 47 8 43-46 1400 315 3.5 85 1120 400 10 8 35-38 1345 283 2.8 88-94 916 32 10 1460 251 3 95-104 1052 600 25 8 37-43 1390 288 2.8 88-94 916 40 10 1505 256 3 95-104 1052 594 54 11 23-29 2337 274 2.8 682 1000 80 8 35-45 1194 281 3.2 96 1050 25 10 1444 279 3.5 103 1342 278 2024 2009 1210 22 40+MW t/MW t+t/MW 8 281 564.8 351 10 279 786.7 357 22-25 2022-2025 23.8 109.5 CAGR 66.2%27.7 99.7 CAGR 53.2%2022-2025 68 235.1 CAGR 51.2%74.4 189.5 CAGR 36.6%41 42 GWEC CWEA GWEC CWEA+43-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0501001502002502021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E YoY-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0501001502002503003504004502021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E YoY 2024 2009 1210 23 2024 2009 1210 24/2022 5 2 2022 2022 2 2022 1 2 2022 2022 2022 2023 2023 2024 2009 1210 25 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 2024 2009 1210 26 A 300 500/6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522
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