20230721_海通证券_保险行业深度报告：保险股估值探究影响因素、历史趋势与海外差异_32页.pdf

Table_MainInfo/2023 07 21 Table_InvestInfo Table_QuoteInfo-14.44%-3.03%8.39%19.80%31.21%42.63%2022/7 2022/10 2023/1 2023/4 Table_ReportInfo 6 2023.07.17 2023.07.08 5 2023.06.30 Table_AuthorInfo:Tel:(010)50949926 Email:S0850515040002:Tel:010-56760090 Email:S0850523070002 Table_Summary PEV PB 2007 1 2 2017 NBV 3 1 PB PEV GAAP IFRS 2 1 PB 2020 1x PEV 0.2-0.6x PEV 3 H A 1 A H 2015 2020 2022 70%2 A A A H A 3 A/H 2020 4 NBV margin EV 2022 11 4 2016 0.75x PEV 0.53x 2017 2 1.6 1.1 PEV PB.6 1.2.7 1.2.1.8 1.2.2.8 1.2.3 10 2.11 2.1.11 2.2.12 2.3.15 3.H A.17 3.1 A H.17 3.2 EV.20 4.23 4.1.23 4.2.24 WUCXwPnQnOmNpRoNnQrOpO6MdN6MoMpPsQnOeRmMqPiNoMnM9PoPoQMYpOnPNZnNpO 3 1.6 2 2007 PEV.7 3.7 4.8 5 300.9 6 2017.9 7 2013 PEV.10 8 A PEV.11 9 2007 PB.12 10 2007.12 11 2010 PB.13 12 PE.13 13 2010 PEV.14 14 2010.14 15 NBV.14 16 2010 PEV.15 17 2010.15 18 1980s GDP%.16 19 2002%.16 20 2021.16 21 2001.17 22 A-H.17 23 A H.18 24 2013-2022 A+H.19 25 A H.19 26 2019-2022 NBV.20 27 2022.20 28 H.20 29 2022 MDRT.21 30 2012-2021 NBV.21 4 31 2011-2021.21 32 2022H2 NBV 48%.22 33 2021-2022H2 PVNBP.22 34 NBV margin.22 35 2022+56%.22 36 2022 11 PEV.24 37 2016-2017.25 38 2016-2017.25 39 2022 11.26 40 2022 11.26 5 1.6 2.11 3 A H II.18 4 EV.23 5 2023 2016.27 6 2023 2017.27 7.28 6 1.1.1 PEV PB 20 PEV PB PE PB PEV PAV PE PEV PB PEV PB PEV 1 PE PB PEV PAV 1 2016 2007 2007 7.5x PEV 2021 1x PEV 2023 7 20 1.49x 1.10 x 25/75 0.88x 1.72x 2013 2023 7 20 0.93x 7 0.92x 25/75 0.75x 1.05x 7 20 0.53x 8%2 2007 PEV 0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0 A PEV 1.49x:1.10 x 25:0.88x 75:1.72x wind PEV 2023.07.20 1.2 3 8 1.2.1 2013 2.5%3.5%2012 1.2.2=-1 2 NBV 3 4 1 NBV 9-15%10%I9 AFS FVTPL 9 5 300 0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.001000200030004000500060007000 300 A PEV wind 2 1 2021-2022 49-59%2 I17 I17 OCI OCI 3 2017 6 2017 0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02.02.53.03.54.04.55.0%A PEV wind 3 NBV NBV 10 2018 NBV 4 2013 2013 4 2014-2015 2017 2021 7 2013 PEV 0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02013/1/4 2014/1/4 2015/1/4 2016/1/4 2017/1/4 2018/1/4 2019/1/4 2020/1/4 2021/1/4 2022/1/4 2023/1/42014-2015 2017 NBV 2015 2019 2017 11 2020 Q2 2020 wind PEV 1.2.3 1 2 11 NBV 3 4 8 A PEV 0.00.51.01.52.02.52013-01 2014-01 2015-01 2016-01 2017-01 2018-01 2019-01 2020-01 2021-01 2022-01 2023-01 wind 2.2.1 1 PB/PE GAAP PB PE 2 PEV IFRS MCEV 3 PEV PEV 2 PE PB GAAP 1 2 3 4 PEV IFRS 1 2 3 4 PEV EEV 1 2 3 4 12 2.2 1 PB 1 Metlife Prudential Financial 1 2007-2008 2008 0.5x PB 2 2010-2020 0.5-1 PB 2020 PB 0.5x PB 4 2022 Q3-Q4 PB MRQ 5 2007 0.92x PB 2008 2010 0.84x PB 2.2x PB 9 2007 PB 0.00.51.01.52.02.53.02007-012007-052007-102008-022008-072008-112009-032009-082009-122010-052010-092011-022011-062011-112012-032012-082012-122013-052013-092014-022014-062014-112015-032015-082015-122016-052016-092017-022017-062017-102018-032018-072018-122019-052019-092020-012020-062020-102021-032021-072021-122022-042022-092023-01 0.92x wind 10 2007-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.50.00.51.01.52.02.53.02007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 PB%wind 13 11 2010 PB 0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.0 2.2x wind Unitedhealth 20 90 2%+ROE 2023 7 19 22.2x PE 12 PE 051015202530352013/05 2014/05 2015/05 2016/05 2017/05 2018/05 2019/05 2020/05 2021/05 2022/05 2023/05 wind 2 2020 1x PEV Allianz AXA Prudential PLC 2015 2015 2018 2x PEV 2017-2018 NBV NBV 1x PEV 2020 14 13 2010 PEV 0.000.501.001.502.002.503.002010-012010-042010-082010-122011-042011-072011-112012-032012-072012-102013-022013-062013-102014-012014-052014-092015-012015-052015-092015-122016-042016-082016-122017-032017-072017-112018-032018-072018-102019-022019-062019-102020-022020-062020-092021-012021-052021-092021-122022-042022-082022-122023-03 Bloomberg 14 2010 0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.00.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.62010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 PEV%Bloomberg 15 NBV-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Bloomberg 3 Dai-ichi Life Holdings T&D T&D Holdings 1 15 0.2-0.6 PEV 2020 0.4x 2 2015 2019 T&D 2020 16 2010 PEV 0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.82010-012010-042010-082010-112011-032011-062011-102012-022012-052012-092012-122013-042013-072013-112014-032014-062014-102015-012015-052015-082015-122016-042016-072016-112017-022017-062017-092018-012018-052018-082018-122019-032019-072019-112020-022020-062020-102021-012021-052021-082021-122022-032022-072022-11T&D wind 17 2010-0.5-0.3-0.10.10.30.50.70.91.11.31.50.10.20.30.40.50.60.72010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 PEV%wind 2.3 1 20 GDP 2022 16 18 1980s GDP%-15-10-505101520 wind 19 2002%-2.0-1.00.01.02.03.04.05.06.0 wind 2 2021 3.9%493/8.1%5580/2001 20 2021 558059284391331732114938.1%12.5%10.1%6.5%8.2%3.9%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%01000200030004000500060007000/%13 17 21 2001-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%wind 3.H A 3.1 A H AH 2013-2023 7 AH A H AH 2023 7 20 A 0.53x PEV H 0.31x PEV AH 70.4%2015 2020 2022 1 2010-2014 A 2014 A H 2 2020 2022 A A A 22 A-H-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.02013/01 2014/01 2015/01 2016/01 2017/01 2018/01 2019/01 2020/01 2021/01 2022/01 2023/01A-H(%,A PEV)H PEV)wind A H 18 A A 300 PB 1.53x 0.91x 1 2 3 A 23 A H-50%0%50%100%150%200%0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.0A PB H PB A-H%wind 1 wind 2 2013 1 1 2023 7 20 A II A 6 H 17 H A 3 A H II PB PB A II wind 000627.SZ 2.60 H II wind 0222.HK 0.45 601318.SH 1.89 0376.HK 3.68 601319.SH 1.47 0662.HK 0.47 601336.SH 2.01 0945.HK-S 1.09 601601.SH 1.78 0966.HK 1.23 601628.SH 2.24 1299.HK 2.41 1336.HK 1.31 1339.HK 1.01 1508.HK 0.61 2318.HK 1.92 2328.HK 1.41 2378.HK 2.74 2601.HK 1.55 2628.HK 1.50 6060.HK 3.45 6161.HK 2.17 6963.HK 0.79 wind AH PB 2013 2023.07.20 19 A A+H A A 54.1%57.8%56.3%36.7%0.33pct 0.01pct 0.17pct 2.06pct 24 2013-2022 A+H 23.3741.5270.7432.4631.2313.17 15.736.8763.1940.000.11%0.56%0.86%0.52%0.49%0.47%0.83%0.66%2.52%0.46%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%01020304050607080A H A H A H A H A H%wind A 2018.11 AH A 2019 2020 A 200%25 A H-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%2013-01 2014-01 2015-01 2016-01 2017-01 2018-01 2019-01 2020-01 2021-01 2022-01 2023-01 wind 2019 2018-2022 NBV-7.7%-20.5%-23.7%-33.3%2023 NBV 7.7%8.8%16.6%0.9%2019 A H H 20 26 2019-2022 NBV-70.0%-60.0%-50.0%-40.0%-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%2019 2020 2021 2022 2019-2022 27 2022-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1 2019-2022 2023 3.2 EV 2013 2022 2023 7 20 1.54x 2023E PEV H 396%A 191%28 H-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%600%0.00.51.01.52.02.52013/01 2014/01 2015/01 2016/01 2017/01 2018/01 2019/01 2020/01 2021/01 2022/01 2023/01%PEV PEV PEV PEV PEV wind NBV margin EV 1+NBV NBV margin 2010 21 2012 MDRT 200 2022 MDRT 4255 2.6 29 2022 MDRT 42551634911 828 806 805478414 34118232728294751570102030405060 050010001500200025003000350040004500MDRT MDRT 30 2012-2021 NBV 02000400060008000100001200014000160002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2012-2022 NBV NBV 31 2011-2021 0200040006000800010000120001400016000180002011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2011-2022 2023 2022 48%PVNBP 2022 14%NBV NBV margin NBV margin 22 32 2022H2 NBV 48%48%21%15%16%Traditional Protection Participating Unit-linked Others 2022 33 2021-2022H2 PVNBP 13%9%7%9%9%14%9%8%9%10%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%TraditionalProtectionParticipating Unit-linked Others Overall2021H2 2022H2 2022 34 NBV margin 32.6%37.2%43.6%44.1%49.1%54.0%52.8%56.0%60.0%62.9%52.6%59.3%57.0%33.2%47.2%57.5%66.4%83.1%83.5%86.4%83.1%90.5%93.5%80.9%78.9%69.5%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2 EV 2022 Operating Profit Insurance and Fee-based 56%Participating and Spread 23%35 2022+56%Insurance and Fee-based,56%Participating and Spread,23%Return on Net Worth,21%2022 23 EV 1 4-6pct 2022 9.69%10%2016 9.55%/10%2 10 EV EV 4 EV%10 2022 2022 2021 2022 2022 2021 2022 2022 2021 7.43 6.42 6.41 3.30 2.30 2.30 7.60 6.60 6.60 9.69 9.70 9.72 3.70 3.70 3.70 9.30 9.30 9.30 7.46 6.96 6.98 3.00 2.20 2.20 7.50 7.00 7.00 13.09 13.03 12.98 7.50 7.50 7.50 12.00 12.00 12.00 8.91 8.10 8.10 3.00 2.20 2.20 7.30 6.50 6.50 8.92 8.49 8.56 4.50 4.00 4.00 9.10 8.60 8.60 7.43 6.48 6.53 3.30 2.30 2.30 7.80 6.80 6.80 12.10 11.80 11.80 5.80 5.30 5.30 10.80 10.50 10.50 7.27 6.59 6.59 2.90 2.20 2.20 7.40 6.70 6.70 21.00 20.00 14.70 10.00 9.00 9.00 12.00 11.00 11.00 7.67 7.20 7.25 1.50 1.00 1.00 6.10 5.60 5.60 8.09 7.65 7.69 3.20 2.70 2.70 8.20 7.70 7.70 9.57 9.11 9.16 4.00 3.50 3.50 9.30 8.80 8.80 2022 4.4.1 2022 1 2022 11 2.93%2022 2.58%35bps 2022 11 0.45x 12 0.57x PEV 2 3 0.5x PEV 3 4 5 0.64x PEV 4 5 0.53x 24 36 2022 11 PEV 0.400.450.500.550.600.652022/11/1 2022/12/1 2023/1/1 2023/2/1 2023/3/1 2023/4/1 2023/5/1 2023/6/1 2023/7/1 wind 1 2 6 2.64%3 2022 12 1 2 2023 2023 2 NBV 3 2023.07.16 7 6 CPI 7 6 OMO MLF 2022 4.2 2016-2017 1 2016 NBV+46%NBV+60%2 2017 25 2017 2016 2016.02.29-2016.11.29 23.9%2.83%4bps 2.64%2016 NBV 60%0.97x PEV 1.12x 0.84x 0.27x 2017 2017.04.19-2017.11.21 22.4%54bps 3.64%2017 NBV 28%1.12x PEV 1.51x 0.84x 0.67x 2023 2022 11 22 11 23 7 20 9.0%2.2bps 2.80%2.93%22 2.58%35bps 23Q1 NBV 11.0%0.54x PEV 0.64x 0.43x 0.1x 37 2016-2017 0.84 1.12 0.84 1.51 0.80.91.01.11.21.31.41.51.62700290031003300350037003900410043004500 300 A PEV wind 38 2016-2017 0.80.91.01.11.21.31.41.51.62.52.72.93.13.33.53.73.94.1%A PEV wind 26 39 2022 11 0.300.350.400.450.500.550.600.650.70350036003700380039004000410042004300 300 PEV wind 40 2022 11 0.300.350.400.450.500.550.600.650.702.452.502.552.602.652.702.752.802.852.902.953.00%PEV wind 2023 NBV 2016/2017 2023 NBV 2016/2017 2023/2023 2016/2017/2016/2017/2023 NBV NBV 20%40%40%/+*1.2 2023 2022 NBV 2023Q1 2016 2017 1.5 2016 2023 0.32x 0.75x PEV 0.53x 2017 0.91x PEV 1 PEV 27 5 2023 2016 pct NBV 2016 23.9%0.04 60.0%2023 9.0%0.04 11.0%20%40%40%2023/37.6%123.0%150.0%/7.5%49.2%60.0%PEV 2016 0.27 2023 0.32 PEV 2023 0.43 PEV 2023 0.75 wind 2016.02.29-2016.11.29 2022.10.31-2023.07.20 2023 2022 NBV 2016 2023 6 2023 2017 pct NBV 2017 22.4%0.54 28.3%2023 9.0%0.04 11.0%20%40%40%2023/40.1%9.1%150.0%/8.0%3.7%60.0%PEV 2017 0.67 2023 0.48 PEV 2023 0.43 PEV 2023 0.91 wind 2017.04.19-2017.11.21 2022.10.31-2023.07.20 2023 2022 NBV 2017 2023 28 7 EV 1YrVNB A 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2021 2022 2023E 2024E-A 47.29 76.34 77.89 84.35 92.32 2.07 1.58 1.77 2.02-A 33.98 42.56 43.54 47.72 52.26 1.58 1.27 1.41 1.60-A 39.62 82.97 81.93 88.73 96.65 1.92 0.78 0.85 0.95-A 27.51 51.80 54.01 59.73 66.82 1.39 0.96 1.05 1.15-A 5.88 6.25 6.41 7.32 8.41 0.09 0.08 0.09 0.10 P/EV VNBX A 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2021 2022 2023E 2024E-A 47.29 0.62 0.61 0.56 0.51-14.01-19.41-20.91-22.33-A 33.98 0.80 0.78 0.71 0.65-5.42-7.50-9.75-11.41-A 39.62 0.48 0.48 0.45 0.41-22.61-54.47-57.48-60.13-A 27.51 0.53 0.51 0.46 0.41-17.42-27.70-30.61-34.11-A 5.88 0.94 0.92 0.80 0.70-4.09-6.28-15.89-25.09 EPS BVPS A 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2021 2022 2023E 2024E-A 47.29 5.56 4.58 6.36 7.33 44.44 46.97 50.69 55.64-A 33.98 1.80 1.14 1.37 1.82 16.93 15.43 16.78 18.27-A 39.62 4.79 3.15 4.15 5.56 34.78 32.98 36.33 42.44-A 27.51 2.79 2.56 3.05 3.29 23.57 23.75 26.65 29.82-A 5.88 0.49 0.55 0.68 0.80 4.96 5.01 5.66 6.41 P/E P/B A 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2021 2022 2023E 2024E-A 47.29 8.51 10.32 7.43 6.45 1.06 1.01 0.93 0.85-A 33.98 18.86 29.94 24.80 18.71 2.01 2.20 2.03 1.86-A 39.62 8.27 12.58 9.54 7.13 1.14 1.20 1.09 0.93-A 27.51 9.86 10.75 9.03 8.37 1.17 1.16 1.03 0.92-A 5.88 12.02 10.65 8.62 7.36 1.19 1.17 1.04 0.92 WIND 2023 7 20 29 Table_Analysts Table_Reports,1.6 6 2.A 500 10%-10%10%-10%6 10%-10%10%-10%30 Table_PeopleInfo(021)23185717(021)23185718(021)23185715(021)23219747(0755)82780398(021)23219399(010)50949926(021)23219820(021)23185645(021)23154149(021)23185643(021)23185646(021)23185641(021)23185639(021)23219732(021)23219395(021)23185653(021)23185650(021)23185659(021)23185655(021)23183109(021)23185656(021)23185657 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