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S0010522070003 2023年7 月31 日 ,2030 2011 2012 2015 8 2016-2018 2019 2022 10 2008 2030 115GW+2XVAZvMnQnOrQpRnOsPqPoP9PbPaQnPrRtRnOeRoOuMeRoOoPaQmNoQwMnPrRxNoPmN 1 2 3 4 5 6 01 1.1,2022 1-12 4177.86 4.98%2022 11812.47 30948.67 100.41 87.41 20305 1.1 60%2030 115GW 1 8 200 15 200 IEA 2050 2023 4 19 IAEA 420 374827MWe 56 58595MWe 2035 6 1.2 2022 7 2023 4 26 2023 2022 10 3 6 24 26.81GW 54 56.82GW 2022 2.2%4177.8 2.5%4.7%2022 37 50%1.2 2022 8 1613.6912.61103.4660.8671.274271.7217.2130225.2350.3 345.2254.8 254.8125.3236252.5020040060080010001200140016001800 1 2022 12 31 8 1.2 2022 9 2 2022 12 22 1.3 10 20212030 2031 2040 2041 2050 20512060 GDP 13.5%2%55 60 t 2050 45 50 t 2030 35%40%2050 60%70%90%2030 25%50%70%80%80%GDP 2005 65%70%18%2035 2035 0 3 1.3 11 2022 6-8 2025 70GW 40%2022 7208 22.8%677 25.7%6-8 70GW 1GW 1.3 12 49.8853.2655.53701200204060801001201402020 2021 2022 2025E 2030E GW)2023 2030 2035 10%2022 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 02 2.1 15 50 1954 1957 60 0.3GW 70 90 2000 1(GIF)2001 7(Gen)2030 5 16 2022 6 7.889GW 5 6 6 6 3 3 1 3 6 5 2.1 6 6 6 2.2 17 2016 2020 AP1000 EPR 40 AP1000 7 2.2 18 80 20 60 AP1000 CAP1400(EPR)(VVER)2.2 19 8 CAP1400 16 ACP1000 177 CF CAP1400 8km 6 CPR1000 2 CPR1000 270 CAP1400 177 CAP1400 CAP1400 2.2 20 9AP1000(EPR)(VVER)EPR()AP1000 3 2005 5 2007 3 175 EPR()CEPR(EPR)AES-2006 2030 32 1999 10 20 2 106 AES-91 40 140 AP1000 EPR(UO2 MOX)VVER;pressurisers 2.3 21 10 1-4 20 50 60()(Wylfa)2012 2015 12 CANDU-137(GE)2.3 22 10 1-4()AP1000 EPR CAP1400 GIF 6 GFR LFR SFR MSR SCWR VHTR 2.3 23 4 Gerneration 4 2030 4 2010 4 1.3 2.1000 3.3 4.10-6/5.6.2.3 24 11 VHTR 1000 C VHTR 2010 2 SCWR LWR BWR PWR SCWR BWR PWR SCWR MSR UF4 ThF4 2.3 25 11 GFR 850 C SFR SFR LFR 50 150 300 400 1200 LFR 550 C 800 C 2.4 26 12 2.4 27 13 1 2 CANDU 8501000 20 60%2011 7 21 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 03 3.1 30 14 3.1 31 15 3.1 32 50%23%15%12%BOP 16 3.1 33 23%20%23%20%17%12%8%6%4%3%3%2%2%17 3.1 34 12%2021 82%2020 1.62 11.1 2020 1.58 11.6 2020 0.39 2.4 1 3.1 35 5-10 5 30-40 60 3.1 36 18 3.2 37 400 19 38 235 238 235 239 238 70%乏燃料铀238（94.3%）铀235（0.8%）钚（0.9%）裂变产物（4%）3.2 HFS 20 3.2 39 0.37%25%1%60%70%30 3.3 40 2007 10 0 2010 50tHM/35 21 3.4 41 2021-2025 2010 2025 50 800tHM 2021 2029 2030 1000 3.4 42 1700 THORP 2700 RT-1 400 PUREX 1/3B 410 2030 2637 28285 50/200/22 3.4 43 2022 6 30 54 23 55805.74MWe bp Energy Outlook:2020 edition 5.4%6.0%5.4%2035 2764 3040 2035 2760 800/800/3 4 800/1500 2035 45006000 The Cost of Reprocessing in China 39.84%2021 2035 418 1182 28 79 3.5 44 PUREX TBP 21 Orano La Calhene La Hague 1700 600 Orano La Calhene La Hague 1700 600 23 1 2 3 4 5 6 04 4.1 47 24 2022 2022 1 2022 2022 3 6 6 3 2022 2 2022 1 4.2 48 25 2022 12 31 4.2 49 2022 13564.5 0.8%220 1.6%57.1%2022 10 2022 677 25.7%10 26 4.2 50 A 2022 ifind 300336393460.67522.76626.95712.8644.89 44.98 47 46.1259.9582.1791.101002003004005006007008002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 27 2016-2022 4.2 51 2022 2022 1992.87 9.12%712.86 13.70%90.10 9.66%2022 828.22 2.66%99.65 2.06%2022 991.38 18.42%17.55 14.48%4.2 52 2030 60 t 15.4 kWh 1.4 kWh 2050 55 t 36.9 t 48.7 kWh 3.5 kWh 2030 2050 10%20%()2030 40%2050 60%1.79 kWh 5.38 kWh 7800h 2.29 kWh 6.9 kWh 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 x 10000 2020 2030 2050 28/kWh 4.2 53 2022 4.98%6.3%18.8%24.2%22.1%69.8%14.3%8.2%2.7%5.0%29 2022 1 2 3 4 5 6 5.55 iFinD 2023 7 28 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 603169.SH 7.54 0.13 0.22 0.29 0.38 56 35 26 20 300092.SZ 15.66 0.44 0.65 0.92 1.21 35 24 17 13 002255.SZ 5.98 0.40/15/300470.SZ 42.85 1.49 1.81 2.19 2.65 29 24 20 16 000777.SZ 14.71 0.45 0.60 0.80 1.04 33 25 19 14 002438.SZ 12.34 0.45 0.66 0.85 1.06 28 19 15 12 000922.SZ 13.19 0.59 0.75 0.93 1.12 22 18 14 12 688290.SH 60.29 1.23 1.67 2.29 3.06 49 36 26 20 600501.SH 14.85 0.18/85/30 1 2 3 4 5 6 571.2.3.4.5.58 6 A 300 500 6 5%;6-5%5%;6 5%;6-12 15%6-12 5%15%6-12-5%5%6-12 5%6-12 15%59
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