资源描述
|2 20 11 35%26 27 1 28 1989 34 2 24 1 ETS IMO 2030/2050 2008 40%/70%2008 2010 2021 50%16 13%22 44%LNG 22 481 CGT+480%2015 08 1023 23 1 355 2010 38.9%2023 7 73.5%2 22H1 13%23H1 18%35%(600150)(601989)(600482)(600685)(601890)/2023 08 30 021-63325888*6126 S0860510120021 021-63325888*4036 S0860518100001 021-63325888*2900 S0860520070002 S0860522080002 2023Q2 2023-07-31 2023 2023-06-14 22 23Q1 22&23Q1 2023-05-09 2.6 1.1.6 1.2.9 1.3.14.17 2.1.17 2.2.19.22 3.1.22 3.2.25.27 4.1 CSSC.27 4.2 CSSC.32 4.3 CSSC.35 4.4 CSSC.38.41.41 YWAZyRnQtQoPqOmPqNtMmNbRbP7NmOpPoMmPjMrRuMeRnOqRaQpPzRuOoNzRxNmRrM 3 1 2011-2023 3.6 2 1993-2023 8.6 3 2020-23 7.6 4 1902-2007.7 5 2000-24.7 6 1972-2022 Bulkcarrier lay-UP.8 7 1972-2022 Tanker lay-UP.8 8 1990-2023 8 Clarksea Index($/day).8 9 2005-2023 8 m.DWT%.9 10 1971-2023 7 m.CGT.9 11 Fit for 55 55.11 12.11 13 CII.11 14 2018-23 7 m.GT.12 15 2023 3.12 16 2022 1.14 17 1996-2023 7 m.DWT.14 18 1996-2023 7 Bulk carrier.15 19 1996-2023 7 Tanker.15 20 1996-2023 7 Containership.15 21 1996 10-2023 8.16 22 1996-2023 8 CGT.16 23 1996-2023 8 CGT.17 24 1996-2023 8 DWT.17 25 2013A-23H1.17 26 1902-2008%of CGT deliveries.18 27 1996-2023 7 CGT.20 28 1996-2023 7$m.20 29 2001-22 CGT.21 30 2001-22,000 CGT.21 31 2001-22,000 CGT.21 32 2001-22,000 CGT.22 33 2001-22,000 CGT.22 34 2008-22.22 4 35 2008-22 VLCC.22 36 1995-2023 1.23 37 2006-2023 7 top3 5 10.23 38 2010-2023 7 top3 5 10.23 39 23 7 CGT.23 40 CSSC.24 41 CSIC.24 42 1996-2023 7 CGT.25 43 2013-23 7,000 CGT%.25 44 2017-22.26 45 2017-22.26 46 Win GD X92DF.27 47 CX40DF.27 48.28 49 2022 12 31.28 50 1995-2022.30 51 1995-2022.30 52 1995-2022.30 53 2019-22.31 54 2018-22.31 55 2008-22.31 56 2008-22.31 57 2011-22%.31 58 2011-22.32 59 2011-22%.32 60.32 61 2022 12 31.33 62 2006-22.34 63 2006-22.34 64 2006-22.34 65 2011-22%.35 66 2011-22%.35 67 2011-22%.35 68 2011-22%.35 69.36 70 2022 12 31.36 5 71 2001-22.37 72 2006-22.37 73 2001-22.38 74.38 75 2017-22.38 76.39 77 2022 12 31.39 78 1990-2022.40 79 1990-2022.40 80 1990-2022.40 81 2018-22.41 82 2016-22.41 1 IMO.9 2 MEPC72 MEPC80GHG.10 3.13 4/,000 CGT.19 5 2019-22.20 6 2000.23 7 2022.25 8.26 9.29 10.37 6 1.1 2011 Clarksons 2023 8(Containership)14.23(Tanker)12.46(Bulkcarrier)11.75 0-5 13 18 16 23 3 16-20 15.16%20 12.33%1 2011-2023 3 Clarksons,3 32 SSI 30-50 25-30 32 3 LNG 37(Capesize Bulker)24 2 1993-2023 8 3 2020-23 7 Clarksons Clarksons Capesize Panamax Handysize 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 202305 610 1115 1620 20 051015201993199519971999200120032005200720092011201320152017201920212023Bulkcarrier Tanker 10k+dwt Containership0510152025303540 7 23-28 10 20 4 1967 1970-1975 20 70 2008 2011 1.67(dwt,)4 1902-2007 Maritime Economics Martin Stopford,3%(World Seaborne Trade)2022 LNG LPG 30%44%15%tonne-miles()2000 2022 22 3%5 2000-24 Clarksons 23 24 Clarksons-5%0%5%10%15%20%010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000World Seaborne Trade Billion Tonne-miles World Seaborne Trade%Yr/Yr(tonne-miles)8 1989 34 28 Bimco,2023 2032 15000 6 Bimco Niels Rasmussen,2016 2015 6 1972-2022 Bulkcarrier lay-UP 7 1972-2022 Tanker lay-UP Clarksons lay-UP 1 Year TC()Clarksons lay-UP 1 Year TC()1-2 7 2019 2018 5 2%Clarksons 23 24 2021 Clarksea Index 22 5 43,604/,2009 22 8 1990-2023 8 Clarksea Index($/day)Clarksons ClarkSea Index 010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,000Jan-90Feb-91Mar-92Apr-93May-94Jun-95Jul-96Aug-97Sep-98Oct-99Nov-00Dec-01Jan-03Feb-04Mar-05Apr-06May-07Jun-08Jul-09Aug-10Sep-11Oct-12Nov-13Dec-14Jan-16Feb-17Mar-18Apr-19May-20Jun-21Jul-22Aug-23$/day 9 9 2005-2023 8 m.DWT%10 1971-2023 7 m.CGT Clarksons Clarksons Total Deliveries CGT Compensated Gross Tonnage,1987 2007 35 2010-11-2010 10%2014-22 3%Clarksons 2022 23 23 10.75%1.2 IMO 23 2021 CO2 363 t CO2 8.33 t 2.3%2050 18%International Maritime Organization IMO 2013 EEDI 2013 EEXI CII EEDI 2013 EEXI CII 23 1 IMO EEDI CO2/400 2013 2015 10 2020 20 2025 30 EEXI CO2 CO2 400 2030 20080%2%4%6%8%10%05001,0001,5002,0002,500World Fleet DWT million World Fleet Growth%Yr/Yr 0102030405060Total Deliveries m.CGT 10 CII,CII A E E D 5000 40%2050 70%2050 2008 50%IMO IMO 80 MEPC 80 GHG 多个重要时间节点提前。2 MEPC72 MEPC80GHG MEPC 72 GHG MEPC 80 2023GHG 2050 2030 2008 40%2050 70%2030 2008 40%2050 2008 50%2050 2030 5%10%2030 2008 20%30%2040 2008 70%80%IMO 2021 7 14 Fit for 55 2030 1990 55%EU ETS Fuels EU Maritime Energy Taxation Directive EU ETS 2024 1 1 ETS ETS 2024 40%2025 70%2026 100%EUA 2024 2025 2026 31 57 84 11 11 Fit for 55 55 Seas At Risk Transport&Environment 20%24%2008 10 2023 IMO 2050 2008 50%2050 2023 16%2 0 2 3-50 1 6%12 13 CII IMO 12 CII IMO IMO CII EEXI/EEDI IMO CII 2019 CII 2023 5%2019 5%2026 11%CII 2023 7 49.20%Clarksons(GT,Gross tonnage)2018 14.2%2023 7 49.20%(LNG)(LPG)();:LNG LNG 60%14 2018-23 7 m.GT 15 2023 3 Clarksons Clarksons:Battery&Battery/Hybrid Propulsion Methanol Hydrogen Ethane Biofuel Nuclear 2020(NoGAPS),22000 M/S NoGAPS,2025 23 000 TEU 14.20%19.30%24.90%34.80%47.50%49.20%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0501001502002502018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Jul-23 LNG64.7%Battery&Battery/Hybrid Propulsion18.6%LPG6.9%Methanol 6.5%Hydrogen1.2%Ethane1.2%Biofuel0.5%Nuclear0.5%13 3 PM NO x SO x 2030 2050 140%6%0 NOx 0 3.2 2.7 N2O 166%0%0 0 3.7 2.7 101%1%-35%100%0 4.5 3.3 83103%212%0-75%100%-10%0 4.0 2.9 0 0 0 0 Vessels Value 2022 EEDI EEXI 75%&IMO 14 16 2022 1 VesselsValue 1.3 2021 17 1996-2023 7 m.DWT Clarksons Total Deliveries()Contracting Orderbook 2 22 23 3 01002003004005006007000510152025303540Jan-96Apr-97Jul-98Oct-99Jan-01Apr-02Jul-03Oct-04Jan-06Apr-07Jul-08Oct-09Jan-11Apr-12Jul-13Oct-14Jan-16Apr-17Jul-18Oct-19Jan-21Apr-22Jul-23 15 18 1996-2023 7 Bulk carrier Clarksons,19 1996-2023 7 Tanker Clarksons,20 1996-2023 7 Containership Clarksons,02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00001,000,0002,000,0003,000,0004,000,0005,000,0006,000,000Jan-96Dec-96Nov-97Oct-98Sep-99Aug-00Jul-01Jun-02May-03Apr-04Mar-05Feb-06Jan-07Dec-07Nov-08Oct-09Sep-10Aug-11Jul-12Jun-13May-14Apr-15Mar-16Feb-17Jan-18Dec-18Nov-19Oct-20Sep-21Aug-22Jul-23Bulkcarrier Contracting CGT Baltic Exchange Dry Index 05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,50001,000,0002,000,0003,000,0004,000,0005,000,0006,000,000Jan-96Dec-96Nov-97Oct-98Sep-99Aug-00Jul-01Jun-02May-03Apr-04Mar-05Feb-06Jan-07Dec-07Nov-08Oct-09Sep-10Aug-11Jul-12Jun-13May-14Apr-15Mar-16Feb-17Jan-18Dec-18Nov-19Oct-20Sep-21Aug-22Jul-23Tankers 10k+DWT Contracting CGT BDTI Index 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,00001,000,0002,000,0003,000,0004,000,0005,000,0006,000,000Jan-96Dec-96Nov-97Oct-98Sep-99Aug-00Jul-01Jun-02May-03Apr-04Mar-05Feb-06Jan-07Dec-07Nov-08Oct-09Sep-10Aug-11Jul-12Jun-13May-14Apr-15Mar-16Feb-17Jan-18Dec-18Nov-19Oct-20Sep-21Aug-22Jul-23Containership Contracting CGT SCFI Comprehensive Container Freight Rate Index 16 2 3 26 27 2020 LNG LPG 2023 8 172.51 20 11 37.94%164.00 205.92 105.37 189.91 20 11 33.01%42.17%39.84%41.84%21 1996 10-2023 8 Clarksons,Newbuilding Price Index 20 22 1996-2023 8 CGT Clarksons,Orderbook%Fleet 050100150200250300Oct-96Dec-97Feb-99Apr-00Jun-01Aug-02Oct-03Dec-04Feb-06Apr-07Jun-08Aug-09Oct-10Dec-11Feb-13Apr-14Jun-15Aug-16Oct-17Dec-18Feb-20Apr-21Jun-22Aug-23Newbuilding Price Index Bulkcarrier Newbuilding Price IndexGas Carrier Newbuilding Price Index Oil Tanker Newbuilding Price IndexContainership Newbuilding Prices Index0%20%40%60%80%100%120%Feb-96Jan-97Dec-97Nov-98Oct-99Sep-00Aug-01Jul-02Jun-03May-04Apr-05Mar-06Feb-07Jan-08Dec-08Nov-09Oct-10Sep-11Aug-12Jul-13Jun-14May-15Apr-16Mar-17Feb-18Jan-19Dec-19Nov-20Oct-21Sep-22Aug-23Bulkcarrier Orderbook%Fleet Total Tanker Orderbook%FleetContainership Orderbook%Fleet LNG Orderbook%FleetLPG Orderbook%Fleet 17 23 1996-2023 8 CGT 24 1996-2023 8 DWT Clarksons,Clarksons,HD 21 2-5 2023Q1 22 23Q1 4.79%21 23 18.60%22 72%25 2013A-23H1 Bloomberg 2.1 19 90 20 60 19 90 80%1960 20%0%50%100%150%Feb-96May-97Aug-98Nov-99Feb-01May-02Aug-03Nov-04Feb-06May-07Aug-08Nov-09Feb-11May-12Aug-13Nov-14Feb-16May-17Aug-18Nov-19Feb-21May-22Aug-23Bulkcarrier Orderbook%FleetTotal Tanker Orderbook%FleetContainership Orderbook%FleetLNG Orderbook%FleetLPG Orderbook%Fleet0100200300400500600700Feb-96May-97Aug-98Nov-99Feb-01May-02Aug-03Nov-04Feb-06May-07Aug-08Nov-09Feb-11May-12Aug-13Nov-14Feb-16May-17Aug-18Nov-19Feb-21May-22Aug-23World Orderbook(DWT)-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%18 20 50 1969 50%1951 1972 31.5%90 20 80 20 90 25%4 20 90,2003 2007 8512 2.17 155.38%26.41%2008 DWT 2010 DWT 26 1902-2008%of CGT deliveries Lloyds Register of Shipping,Clarkson Research,Maritime Economics Martin Stopford,19 4/,000 CGT 1970 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Jul-23 1348 2202 3605 1981 3526 6141 8178 9890 6711 6239 2910 0 190 897 1105 1984 5893 9585 15832 12709 8869 5451 9 70 211 174 427 1304 4736 20722 13429 11265 9571 0 0 57 227 83 349 345 356 437 168 85 0 0 0 0 55 31 173 217 70 12 33 0 0 18 34 15 33 58 167 30 32 33 0 0 0 0 0 11 68 513 439 408 252 1 0 0 0 0 80 177 603 903 312 234 0 0 0 13 11 45 164 558 349 199 74 1358 2462 4789 3534 6101 13886 23483 48859 35076 27504 18643 47%65%75%79%82%75%84%90%93%93%96%164 0 180 265 90 212 450 246 67 33 34 0 21 0 0 8 235 11 191 132 164 27 148 108 45 0 89 805 1121 884 379 279 113 41 31 12 92 142 658 364 758 253 558 233 23 26 0 0 20 68 134 124 59 230 23 30 0 22 0 0 406 276 352 197 167 71 122 78 54 0 56 165 196 486 233 141 20 0 0 0 11 0 93 355 444 167 135 28 856 698 929 469 898 1622 1181 1185 288 247 185 1384 962 1242 836 1303 4263 4088 4670 1775 1953 734 48%25%20%19%17%23%15%9%5%7%4%140 44 14 0 0 171 278 316 377 43 51 0 285 258 125 66 14 50 84 238 4 0 0 62 57 0 0 187 112 211 60 45 12 2882 3814 6361 4495 7471 18523 28011 54140 37526 29550 19440 Clarksons 2.2 CGT 60%50%LNG/LPG VLCC/ULCC 10%2015 LNG LPG 10%CGT 20 5 2019-22 Newbuilding prices Newbuilding,$m end 2019 2020 2021 2022 Oil Tankers VLCC 320000 dwt 92 85.5 112 120 Suezmax 157000 dwt 61.5 56 76 80 Aframax 115000 dwt 48.5 46.5 59 62 Panamax(LR1)75000 dwt 44.5 42.5 51 54 MR Tanker 51000 dwt 35.8 34 41 43.5 Bulkcarriers Capesize 180000 dwt 49.5 46.5 60.5 60.5 Kamsarmax 82000 dwt 27.5 26 34.8 33.5 Ultramax 62000 dwt 25.5 24 32.5 30.5 Handysize 38000 dwt 23.5 23 29.5 28.5 LPG VLGC 91000 m3 71 71 87.5 95.5 Mid-size 40000 m3 47 44 54 57.5 Mid-size F/R 24000 m3 43 40 49 52.5 LNG 174000 m3 186 186 210 248 Containerships Post-Panamax 23000 teu 146 142 189 215 Neo-Panamax 15500 teu 113.5 106 155 153 Neo-Panamax 13500 teu 109 102 148 144.5 Neo-Panamax 10500 teu 89 97.5 128.5 128 Intermediate 6600 teu 71.5 72 83.5 86 Feeder 2750 teu 31.5 30 40 42 Feeder 2500 teu 32 30.3 39 40.5 Feeder 1700 teu 26 23 28 29 Clarksons,21 CGT 21 27.8 CGT 142.78%50.1%6.6pct 22 0.468/27 1996-2023 7 CGT 28 1996-2023 7$m Clarksons Clarksons CGT 22 22.66%20pct 22 32%60%55%32%2017 28 22 163 16 13%22 44%LNG 22 LNG 481 CGT 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%21 480%2021 12%30%LNG 55 17.4 LNG VLCC 22 VLCC 22 LNG 1 5 29 2001-22 CGT Clarksons,30 2001-22,000 CGT 31 2001-22,000 CGT Clarksons Clarksons 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%20%40%60%80%100%0500010000150002000025000300002001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 10k+(10k+(0%20%40%60%80%100%010000200003000040000(22 32 2001-22,000 CGT 33 2001-22,000 CGT Clarksons Clarksons 34 2008-22 35 2008-22 VLCC Clarksons Clarksons 3.1 2008 20122016 20162020 2023 21 JMU 30%JMU 08 08 1023 23 1 355 2023 7 73.5%2010 34.6pct 0%20%40%60%80%100%05000100001500020000250002001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022(0%20%40%60%80%100%040008000120001600020000(0200400600800100012001400050100150200250VLCC 200,000+dwt LNG CarriersLPG Carriers Containerships 8000+teuothers()0100200300400500 VLCC VLCC 23 36 1995-2023 1 37 2006-2023 7 top3 5 10 Clarksons Clarksons 2008 455 2023 1 155 66%2010 CR10 2009 35%2022 51%2016 2019 53%CGT 38 2010-2023 7 top3 5 10 39 23 7 CGT Clarksons Clarksons 6 2000 2022 31.63%10.35%2021 100%2020 100%36.2717%21.4598%2018 23.478%51%2014 26%51%020040060080010001200199519971999200120032005200720092011201320152017201920212023No.Active Shipyards,China No.Active Shipyards,Global0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023cr3 cr5 cr100%10%20%30%40%50%60%20062008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023cr3 cr5 cr10 36%14%3%12%29%6%24 2018 26%2014 51%2020 100%2018 42.99%36.15%2014 2011 100%2019 53.01%67%2018 100%2016 100%;100%2018 100%2015 100%2014 100%2009 100%2017 51%2016 50%100%2014 100%2005 2022 2020 47.82%44.94%2019 64.71%2018 100%2016 100%数据来源：Wind，东方证券 研究 所 40 CSSC 41 CSIC 2020 6 21 2020 6 21 25 3.2 20 7 2022 CGT Hudong Zhonghua 100%3,655,838 New Times SB-1,461,054 Jiangnan SY Group 100%1,329,656 Yangzi Xinfu SB 55.07%990,832 CMHI(Jiangsu)100%972,932 Nantong COSCO KHI 33.52%821,288 Dalian Shipbuilding 100%687,526 Dalian COSCO KHI 24.13%673,664 Zhoushan Changhong 8.18%666,604 CSSC(Tianjin)100%638,613:Clarksons IMO 2022 54%2023 6 10 24000TEU LNG 2026 6 42 1996-2023 7 CGT 43 2013-23 7,000 CGT%Clarksons Clarksons 05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,000CGT/No0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%050001000015000200002500030000 26 90%300/20 50 20 90 3 MAN B&W Sulzer 8/t/MW 502500 90 Max 55%30 25 Max 42%3 60 10 Max 46%3 300 27 Max 51%1 1 Max 70%1 500 300 Max 30%2015 Winterthur Gas&Diesel WinGD 2017 J-ENG 3 MAN ES WinGD J-ENG J-ENG MAN ES WinGD 22 30%19 6.4pct 20%44 2017-22 45 2017-22 Clarksons 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 27 2017 ACD320DF 405kW Tier III IMO Tier CMP-MAN L23/30DF 2020 WinGD WinGD X92DF 2021 CX40DF CX40DF 80%46 Win GD X92DF 47 CX40DF 4.1 CSSC 1998 2006 53.27%2007 2008 2013-18 2018 2019 28 2022 31.63%2023 5 47 34.97%48 50.42%44.7%4.86%1.09%50.42%4()()49 2022 12 31 Wind 29 LNG FPSO 3000 981 15/17/30/34 FPSO 9;3.5-8.5 MR FPSO FPSO(JU2000E CJ46 CJ50)LNG 298.6 41.6 2007 19.79%27.84%06 53.27%07 06 117.4 08 276.56 08 41.6 08 16 17 20 30 20 552.4 138.78%50 1995-2022 51 1995-2022 Wind Wind 1995-2022 21 07 3 集造船、修船、核心配件三位于一体的企业，公司 19.76%2016-17 16 17 17%16 9.27pct 17 VLOC VLGC），同时 52 1995-2022 Wind 2019-22 2020-22 22 494.8 21 2.45pct 92%19 938.35 1744.68-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%600%700%800%0100200300400500600700-5000%-4000%-3000%-2000%-1000%0%1000%2000%(30)(20)(10)01020304050-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%1995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 31 53 2019-22 54 2018-22 Wind Clarksons,2013 14 17+-55 2008-22 Clarksons X 56 2008-22 57 2011-22%01002003004005006002019 2020 2021 2022 050010001500200025003000-1500-1000-5000500100015002008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,600020406080100120140200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022-50%0%50%100%150%200%051015202530 32 58 2011-22 59 2011-22%4.2 CSSC 2008 2009 2011 2016 2018 2021 100%60 34.53%15 3 01002003004005006007008009000100200300400500600700800-40%-20%0%20%40%60%051015202530352015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 33 61 2022 12 31 VLCC LNG LR2 25 40 051 052 052B 052C 052D 052A 054A 056 30 LNG FPSO LPG 01 01 03 300 FPSO 34 2025 FPSO 609.7 47.1 2010 19.68%2009 2011 183.5%580.5 47.1 194.3%13 14 18.9%17 3.24pct 11.96%22
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