20230817_海通证券_航空行业中期策略报告：23年基本面逐季改善大周期后市可期_39页.pdf

SAC S0850512070003 SAC S0850520060002 2023 08 17 23 23 1.2.1 2 3 4 3.2 1ZDWzQnQpMqRrPmPsPtMoPbR8Q9PmOoOoMtQkPoOxPlOqRtM9PrQnNvPnPmNuOmQtM 19 3 23 55.4%/78.6%9.7 74.3%2019 21.5%/29.8%8.8 23Q1 2019 Wind 1.23Q1 19 4 1 2023 Q1 2023.13 2022.13 2023.13 2022.13 2023.13 2022.13 2023.13 2022.13 2023.13 2022.13 2023.13 2022.13 2023.13 2022.13 59313 34127 73.80 66949 44722 49.70 48090 31536 52.49 27771 15464 79.58 10360 9905 4.60 10629 7844 35.50 223111 143598 55.37 42140 21522 95.80 49843 29223 70.56 33954 18905 79.60 22327 10783 107.07 9001 7157 25.76 8490 5198 63.33 165756 92789 78.64 71.0 63.1 8.0pp 74.4 65.3 9.1pp 70.6 59.9 10.7pp 80.4 69.7 10.7pp 86.9 72.3 14.6pp 79.9 66.3 13.6pp 74.3 64.6 9.7pp 54724 32555 68.10 61484 43171 42.42 44370 30621 44.90 26576 15357 73.06 9389 9844-4.62 9688 7727 25.38 206231 139274 48.08 39304 20951 87.60 45844 28374 61.57 31547 18450 70.98 21521 10729 100.58 8207 7123 15.22 7838 5128 52.85 154260 90755 69.97 71.8 64.4 7.5pp 74.6 65.7 8.8pp 71.1 60.3 10.8pp 81.0 69.9 11.1pp 87.4 72.4 15.1pp 80.9 66.4 14.5pp 74.8 65.2 9.6pp 3355 950 253.10 5068 1471 244.61 3091 685 351.33 1179 108 994.65 851 36 2286.02 808 92 778.50 14353 3341 329.57 2051 246 734.50 3721 806 361.59 1949 326 498.31 799 53 1393.42 690 15 4460.29 549 52 956.79 9757 1498 551.36 61.1 25.9 35.3pp 73.4 54.8 18.6pp 63.0 47.5 15.5pp 67.8 49.7 18.1pp 81.1 42.4 38.7pp 67.9 56.4 11.5pp 68.0 44.8 23.1pp 1233 627 96.70 397 82 381.12 629 230 173.85 16-120 25 372.47 132 25 428.14 2527 1005 151.33 785 319 146.10 279 27 919.55 459 129 256.19 8-105 19 441.16 103 18 467.14 1739 521 233.86 63.6 50.9 12.8pp 70.2 33.1 37.1pp 73.0 56.1 16.9pp 50.4-87.2 76.1 11.1pp 78.1 72.8 5.4pp 68.8 51.8 17.0pp 410 1083-62.1 1744 1802-3 388 795-51.2 165 248-33.47 29 36-19.22 45 70-35.70 2781 4034-31.1 2023.13 2019.13 2023.13 2019.13 2023.13 2019.13 2023.13 2019.13 2023.13 2019.13 2023.13 2019.13 2023.13 2019.13 59313 70319-15.65 66949 83513-19.83 48090 65809-26.93 27771 44362-37.40 10360 10156 2.01 10629 9974 6.56 223111 284134-21.48 42140 57268-26.42 49843 69215-27.99 33954 54343-37.52 22327 37530-40.51 9001 9362-3.86 8490 8500-0.12 165756 236219-29.83 71.0 81.4-10.4pp 74.4 82.9-8.4pp 70.6 82.6-12.0pp 80.4 84.6-4.2pp 86.9 92.2-5.3pp 79.9 85.2-5.3pp 74.3 83.1-8.8pp 54724 41364 32.30 61484 57177 7.53 44370 42142 5.29 26576 33605-20.92 9389 6580 42.70 9688 8198 18.18 206231 189066 9.08 39304 34100 15.26 45844 47207-2.89 31547 35056-10.01 21521 29908-28.04 8207 6099 34.57 7838 7040 11.33 154260 159410-3.23 71.8 82.4-10.6pp 74.6 82.6-8.0pp 71.1 83.2-12.1pp 81.0 89.0-8.0pp 87.4 92.7-5.3pp 80.9 85.9-5.0pp 74.8 84.3-9.5pp 3355 26224-87.21 5068 25191-79.88 3091 22015-85.96 1179 10590-88.87 851 3212-73.50 808 1601-49.53 14353 88832-83.84 2051 20930-90.20 3721 21136-82.40 1949 17931-89.13 799 7487-89.33 690 2928-76.43 549 1316-58.31 9757 71729-86.40 61.1 79.8-18.7pp 73.4 83.9-10.5pp 63.0 81.5-18.4pp 67.8 70.7-2.9pp 81.1 91.2-10.1pp 67.9 82.2-14.3pp 68.0 80.7-12.8pp 1233 2732-54.85 397 1145-65.33 629 1652-61.96 16 167-90.43 120 365-67.09 132 175-24.39 2527 6236-59.48 785 2238-64.92 279 872-68.05 459 1356-66.15 8 136-94.05 105 336-68.82 103 144-28.06 1739 5081-65.78 63.6 81.9-18.3pp 70.2 76.2-6.0pp 73.0 82.1-9.0pp 50.4 81.0-30.6pp 87.2 92.0-4.8pp 78.1 82.1-4.0pp 68.8 81.5-12.7pp 410 1097-62.6 1744 1687 3 388 614-36.8 165 425-61.18 29 25 17.17 45 42 7.93 2781 3889-28.5 23 2019+9.1%/-3.2%9.5 2019-83.8%/-86.4%12.8 2019-59.5%/-65.8%12.7 2019 Wind 1.5 2 2023 Q1 2023.13 2022.13 2023.13 2022.13 2023.13 2022.13 2023.13 2022.13 2023.13 2022.13 2023.13 2022.13 2023.13 2022.13 59313 34127 73.80 66949 44722 49.70 48090 31536 52.49 27771 15464 79.58 10360 9905 4.60 10629 7844 35.50 223111 143598 55.37 42140 21522 95.80 49843 29223 70.56 33954 18905 79.60 22327 10783 107.07 9001 7157 25.76 8490 5198 63.33 165756 92789 78.64 71.0 63.1 8.0pp 74.4 65.3 9.1pp 70.6 59.9 10.7pp 80.4 69.7 10.7pp 86.9 72.3 14.6pp 79.9 66.3 13.6pp 74.3 64.6 9.7pp 54724 32555 68.10 61484 43171 42.42 44370 30621 44.90 26576 15357 73.06 9389 9844-4.62 9688 7727 25.38 206231 139274 48.08 39304 20951 87.60 45844 28374 61.57 31547 18450 70.98 21521 10729 100.58 8207 7123 15.22 7838 5128 52.85 154260 90755 69.97 71.8 64.4 7.5pp 74.6 65.7 8.8pp 71.1 60.3 10.8pp 81.0 69.9 11.1pp 87.4 72.4 15.1pp 80.9 66.4 14.5pp 74.8 65.2 9.6pp 3355 950 253.10 5068 1471 244.61 3091 685 351.33 1179 108 994.65 851 36 2286.02 808 92 778.50 14353 3341 329.57 2051 246 734.50 3721 806 361.59 1949 326 498.31 799 53 1393.42 690 15 4460.29 549 52 956.79 9757 1498 551.36 61.1 25.9 35.3pp 73.4 54.8 18.6pp 63.0 47.5 15.5pp 67.8 49.7 18.1pp 81.1 42.4 38.7pp 67.9 56.4 11.5pp 68.0 44.8 23.1pp 1233 627 96.70 397 82 381.12 629 230 173.85 16-120 25 372.47 132 25 428.14 2527 1005 151.33 785 319 146.10 279 27 919.55 459 129 256.19 8-105 19 441.16 103 18 467.14 1739 521 233.86 63.6 50.9 12.8pp 70.2 33.1 37.1pp 73.0 56.1 16.9pp 50.4-87.2 76.1 11.1pp 78.1 72.8 5.4pp 68.8 51.8 17.0pp 410 1083-62.1 1744 1802-3 388 795-51.2 165 248-33.47 29 36-19.22 45 70-35.70 2781 4034-31.1 2023.13 2019.13 2023.13 2019.13 2023.13 2019.13 2023.13 2019.13 2023.13 2019.13 2023.13 2019.13 2023.13 2019.13 59313 70319-15.65 66949 83513-19.83 48090 65809-26.93 27771 44362-37.40 10360 10156 2.01 10629 9974 6.56 223111 284134-21.48 42140 57268-26.42 49843 69215-27.99 33954 54343-37.52 22327 37530-40.51 9001 9362-3.86 8490 8500-0.12 165756 236219-29.83 71.0 81.4-10.4pp 74.4 82.9-8.4pp 70.6 82.6-12.0pp 80.4 84.6-4.2pp 86.9 92.2-5.3pp 79.9 85.2-5.3pp 74.3 83.1-8.8pp 54724 41364 32.30 61484 57177 7.53 44370 42142 5.29 26576 33605-20.92 9389 6580 42.70 9688 8198 18.18 206231 189066 9.08 39304 34100 15.26 45844 47207-2.89 31547 35056-10.01 21521 29908-28.04 8207 6099 34.57 7838 7040 11.33 154260 159410-3.23 71.8 82.4-10.6pp 74.6 82.6-8.0pp 71.1 83.2-12.1pp 81.0 89.0-8.0pp 87.4 92.7-5.3pp 80.9 85.9-5.0pp 74.8 84.3-9.5pp 3355 26224-87.21 5068 25191-79.88 3091 22015-85.96 1179 10590-88.87 851 3212-73.50 808 1601-49.53 14353 88832-83.84 2051 20930-90.20 3721 21136-82.40 1949 17931-89.13 799 7487-89.33 690 2928-76.43 549 1316-58.31 9757 71729-86.40 61.1 79.8-18.7pp 73.4 83.9-10.5pp 63.0 81.5-18.4pp 67.8 70.7-2.9pp 81.1 91.2-10.1pp 67.9 82.2-14.3pp 68.0 80.7-12.8pp 1233 2732-54.85 397 1145-65.33 629 1652-61.96 16 167-90.43 120 365-67.09 132 175-24.39 2527 6236-59.48 785 2238-64.92 279 872-68.05 459 1356-66.15 8 136-94.05 105 336-68.82 103 144-28.06 1739 5081-65.78 63.6 81.9-18.3pp 70.2 76.2-6.0pp 73.0 82.1-9.0pp 50.4 81.0-30.6pp 87.2 92.0-4.8pp 78.1 82.1-4.0pp 68.8 81.5-12.7pp 410 1097-62.6 1744 1687 3 388 614-36.8 165 425-61.18 29 25 17.17 45 42 7.93 2781 3889-28.5 27.23 20.06 26.49 4.75 4.00 11.40-48.05-39.33-52.62-2.27-4.91-62.95-62.08-38.05-40.06-2.85-2.78-26.00-89.00-77.60-44.96-4.37-5.44-35.99-29.26-38.03-18.98 3.56 1.65 1.58-100-80-60-40-2002040中国国航 中国东航 南方航空 春秋航空 吉祥航空 海航控股 1Q19 1Q20 1Q21 1Q22 1Q23325.54 300.53 376.33 36.40 41.32 186.33 172.56 154.54 211.41 23.84 23.80 68.89 145.81 133.95 212.53 22.23 24.57 77.33 129.18 126.65 214.71 23.60 24.86 63.71 250.68 222.61 340.55 38.63 44.42 131.48 050100150200250300350400中国国航 中国东航 南方航空 春秋航空 吉祥航空 海航控股 1Q19 1Q20 1Q21 1Q22 1Q23 23Q1+94%/+76%/+59%/+64%/+79%/+106%19-23%/-26%/-10%/+6%/+7%/-29%19+67%/+51%/+58%/+181%/+130%/+104%Wind 1.1Q23 6 1 2 23 5/2019 5.5%/15.5%73.3%2019 8.6 Wind 1.5 7 3 4 50%55%60%65%70%75%80%85%90%1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%ASK 2021vs2019 RPK 2021vs2019 ASK 2022vs2019 RPK 2022vs2019 ASK 2023vs2019 RPK 2023vs2019 23 5 2019 23.9%/10.8%8.9 74.7%19 2019 62.9%/69.5%2019 36.6%/47.2%Q1 Wind 1.5 19 8 3 2023 5 2023.5 2022.5 2023.5 2022.5 2023.5 2022.5 2023.5 2022.5 2023.5 2022.5 2023.5 2022.5 2023.5 2022.5 25588 5963 329.10 26253 9331 181.36 20840 3688 465.07 10637 2773 283.65 3957 1482 167.00 4090 502 715.46 91365 23738 284.89 17439 3416 410.50 19756 5676 248.04 14593 2241 551.08 8428 1592 429.51 3476 1023 239.78 3264 310 953.65 66955 14258 369.59 68.2 57.3 10.9pp 75.3 60.8 14.4pp 70.0 60.8 9.3pp 79.2 57.4 21.8pp 87.8 69.0 18.8pp 79.8 61.8 18.0pp 73.3 60.1 13.2pp 21320 5694 274.40 22718 8790 158.46 17685 3453 412.12 9636 2723 253.86 3363 1474 128.24 3644 477 664.50 78365 22611 246.59 14991 3288 355.90 17051 5314 220.85 12623 2134 491.42 7864 1564 402.73 3012 1018 195.86 2975 299 894.58 58516 13618 329.69 70.3 57.7 12.6pp 75.1 60.5 14.6pp 71.4 61.8 9.6pp 81.6 57.4 24.2pp 89.6 69.1 20.5pp 81.7 62.8 18.9pp 74.7 60.2 14.4pp 3626 211 1621.60 3327 531 526.45 2718 234 1063.71 966 50 1844.80 533 8 6364.04 407 25 1535.29 11576 1058 994.16 2057 107 1818.60 2549 357 614.07 1672 107 1466.79 545 27 1880.47 409 5 8350.43 259 11 2341.72 7490 614 1120.30 56.7 50.9 5.8pp 76.6 67.2 9.4pp 61.5 45.7 15.8pp 56.4 55.4 1.0pp 76.8 58.8 18.1pp 63.6 42.6 21.0pp 64.7 58.0 6.7pp 643 58 1004.40 209 10 1957.33 436 1 41068.87 36-60-39-1423 69 1949.82 391 20 1832.90 156 5 3031.56 298 0#20-54-29-949 25 3625.40 60.8 34.8 26.1pp 74.8 49.2 25.7pp 68.3 23.6 44.7pp 55.2-89.9-76.2-66.7 36.7 30.0pp 241 369-34.7 639 665-4 192 169 13.8 80 92-13.14 10 7 32.29 17 5 212.31 1179 1308-9.8 2023.5 2019.5 2023.5 2019.5 2023.5 2019.5 2023.5 2019.5 2023.5 2019.5 2023.5 2019.5 2023.5 2019.5 25588 24216 5.67 26253 27937-6.03 20840 22341-6.72 10637 15170-29.88 3957 3647 8.50 4090 3364 21.59 91365 96674-5.49 17439 19400-10.11 19756 22742-13.13 14593 18323-20.36 8428 12534-32.76 3476 3309 5.04 3264 2881 13.29 66955 79189-15.45 68.2 80.1-12.0pp 75.3 81.4-6.2pp 70.0 82.0-12.0pp 79.2 82.6-3.4pp 87.8 90.7-2.9pp 79.8 85.6-5.8pp 73.3 81.9-8.6pp 21320 13724 55.35 22718 19149 18.64 17685 14170 24.81 9636 10969-12.16 3363 2397 40.34 3644 2838 28.37 78365 63247 23.90 14991 11179 34.09 17051 15666 8.84 12623 11761 7.33 7864 9564-17.78 3012 2213 36.12 2975 2448 21.56 58516 52831 10.76 70.3 81.5-11.1pp 75.1 81.8-6.8pp 71.4 83.0-11.6pp 81.6 87.2-5.6pp 89.6 92.3-2.8pp 81.7 86.2-4.6pp 74.7 83.5-8.9pp 3626 9506-61.86 3327 8369-60.25 2718 7572-64.10 966 4133-76.63 533 1131-52.90 407 470-13.36 11576 31181-62.87 2057 7440-72.36 2549 6758-62.28 1672 6068-72.45 545 2919-81.35 409 987-58.55 259 387-33.11 7490 24560-69.50 56.7 78.3-21.5pp 76.6 80.8-4.1pp 61.5 80.1-18.6pp 56.4 70.6-14.2pp 76.8 87.3-10.5pp 63.6 82.4-18.8pp 64.7 78.8-14.1pp 643 986-34.75 209 419-50.17 436 600-27.26 36 68-46.70 60 119-49.14 39 55-29.63 1423 2246-36.62 391 780-49.86 156 318-50.93 298 494-39.67 20 51-60.80 54 109-49.99 29 46-35.92 949 1798-47.21 60.8 79.2-18.3pp 74.8 76.0-1.2pp 68.3 82.4-14.1pp 55.2 75.1-19.9pp 89.9 91.5-1.5pp 76.2 83.6-7.5pp 66.7 80.1-13.4pp 241 423-43.1 639 650-2 192 246-21.9 80 164-51.55 10 9 2.96 17 17-2.80 1179 1511-22.0 01234567892023-01-012023-01-072023-01-132023-01-192023-01-252023-01-312023-02-062023-02-122023-02-182023-02-242023-03-022023-03-082023-03-142023-03-202023-03-262023-04-012023-04-072023-04-132023-04-192023-04-252023-05-012023-05-072023-05-132023-05-192023-05-252023-05-312023-06-062023-06-122023-06-182023-06-24 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%2023-01-012023-01-072023-01-132023-01-192023-01-252023-01-312023-02-062023-02-122023-02-182023-02-242023-03-022023-03-082023-03-142023-03-202023-03-262023-04-012023-04-072023-04-132023-04-192023-04-252023-05-012023-05-072023-05-132023-05-192023-05-252023-05-312023-06-062023-06-122023-06-182023-06-24 2.23Q3 9 7 8 vs2019 5 6/0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%02000400060008000100001200014000160002023-01-01 2023-01-15 2023-01-29 2023-02-12 2023-02-26 2023-03-12 2023-03-26 2023-04-09 2023-04-23 2023-05-07 2023-05-21 2023-06-04 2023-06-18 2023/2023vs2019 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%010020030040050060070080090010002023-01-01 2023-01-15 2023-01-29 2023-02-12 2023-02-26 2023-03-12 2023-03-26 2023-04-09 2023-04-23 2023-05-07 2023-05-21 2023-06-04 2023-06-18 2023/2023vs2019 5.86.06.26.46.66.87.07.27.41 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2021 2022 20230204060801001201401 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 2021 2022 2023 2023 Wind 2.10 9 10/USD/RMB 19Q1 19Q2 19Q3 19Q4 20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2/4756 5069 4884 4956 4732 2144 2833 2679 3522 4111 4518 5151 5462 7933 8736 7910 6946 6073-19.9%6.6%-3.6%1.5%-4.5%-54.7%32.1%-5.4%31.5%16.7%9.9%14.0%6.0%45.2%10.1%-9.5%-12.2%-12.6%(USD/RMB)6.75 6.82 6.99 7.03 6.97 7.08 6.92 6.62 6.48 6.46 6.47 6.39 6.35 6.61 6.83 7.09 6.84 7.01-1.9%2.1%2.9%-1.4%1.6%-0.1%-3.8%-4.2%0.7%-1.7%0.4%-1.7%-0.4%5.7%5.8%-1.9%-1.3%5.2%4 +19 11 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2020-01 2020-02 2020-03 2020-04 2020-05 2020-06 2020-07 2020-08 2020-09 2020-10 2020-11 2020-12 2021-01 2021-02 2021-03 2021-04 2021-05 2021-06 2021-07 2021-08 2021-09 2021-10 2021-11 2021-12 2022-01 2022-02 2022-03 2022-04 2022-05 2022-06 2022-07 2022-08 2022-09 2022-10 2022-11 2022-12 2023-01 2023-02 2023-03 2023-04 vs2019 vs2019 2021-11 IATA The White House CDC CNN 12 11 1.1 2021 4 19 76.0%65.1%2 3 2021 7 19 90%3 2023 4/19 102.9%/103.3%86.1%2020-03 2021-04 2022-03 2021-12 2021-06 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2020-01 2020-02 2020-03 2020-04 2020-05 2020-06 2020-07 2020-08 2020-09 2020-10 2020-11 2020-12 2021-01 2021-02 2021-03 2021-04 2021-05 2021-06 2021-07 2021-08 2021-09 2021-10 2021-11 2021-12 2022-01 2022-02 2022-03 2022-04 2022-05 2022-06 2022-07 2022-08 2022-09 2022-10 2022-11 2022-12 2023-01 2023-02 vs2019 vs2019 US Department of Transportation The White House CDC CNN 13 12 1.2020 4 2023 2/19 98.0%/95.3%2019 2020 4 1.6%2023 2 95.3%2.8%2021-11 2020-03 2021-04 2022-03 2021-12 2021-06 2020 11 19 80.6%Oliver Wyman Analysis 2023 12543 2029 20629 US Department of Transportation Oliver Wyman Analysis 1.14 80.56%110.05%80%85%90%95%100%105%110%115%2020/1/12020/4/12020/7/12020/10/12021/1/12021/4/12021/7/12021/10/12022/1/12022/4/12022/7/12022/10/12023/1/12023/4/1 13 vs2019-30000-20000-1000001000020000300002019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 14 2022 2019 77.4%2019 9.5%/8.1%/33.9%/56.0%US Department of Transportation 1.15 15 2022 vs2019 77.39%9.54%8.11%33.85%56.01%0%20%40%60%80%100%US Department of Transportation Wind 16 1.2021 Q2 2022 Q4 393.9 12.4%2019 95.5%2023 10%-20%16 17-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%0100200300400500 QoQ 0501001502002503003500204060801001201402019/1/12019/4/12019/7/12019/10/12020/1/12020/4/12020/7/12020/10/12021/1/12021/4/12021/7/12021/10/12022/1/12022/4/12022/7/12022/10/12023/1/12023/4/1/Wind Reuters 17 1.18 19 2022 3 2022 Q2-Q4 2019 22 Q2 2019 2023Q1 6.71-150%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%400%0501001502002503003504004505001Q192Q193Q194Q191Q202Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q23 vs2019-500%-400%-300%-200%-100%0%100%200%-140-120-100-80-60-40-2002040601Q192Q193Q194Q191Q202Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q23 vs2019-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%2023-01-03 2023-02-03 2023-03-03 2023-04-03 2023-05-03 2023-06-03 500 Wind 18 1.2022 3-4 2023 2022/500 27.8%/13.9%/17.7%20 21 23-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%2020-01-02 2021-01-02 2022-01-02 2023-01-02 500 0501001501 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2021 20222019 20230204060801 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2021 20222019 202320 21-22 23 2019 3 737MAX 19 18 2.19 22 23 24 25 020040060080010002