资源描述
112023 7 26 3 SAC S1340522080004|2 10%23 80.0GWh+102%8pct 16.4GWh 2022 6 15.5GWh+141%32.3GWh+120%5 10pct IRA EIA 1-6 2.8GW+99%EIA 10.6GW+152%32.0GWh+120%5 10pct 2023 6 364MWh 6 25.7+14%15.6GWh+50%Q3+23Q2 6 PCS PCS AI ZXEVuNtOnOrQsMmPmRqPpO7N9RaQmOmMtRpMfQmMpQfQmOtM8OrQqPvPsOzRNZsOnM3 PCS 110%120%4 4 110%120%51.1 2023 80.0GWh+102%8pct CNESA EIA BNEF 1 2016-2024E 10%1.4 2.1 4.5 4.97.821.339.750%114%9%59%173%86%102%74%-10%10%30%50%70%90%110%130%150%170%190%0.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.0140.0160.02016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E GWh GWh GWh%80.0139.260.02 0.05 0.11 0.07 0.22 0.29 1.30 1.3 3.1 4.9 14.7 32.3 58.2 160%131%-37%216%33%341%-2%145%58%199%120%80%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%400%0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.02012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E GWh%1.2 2023 32.3GWh+120%10pct 2 2012-2024E CNESA 71.3 2023 6 15.5GWh+141%3 2022-2023 GWh 2023 7-12 0.6 0.4 2.0 0.9 1.4 2.7 3.0 11.0 19.0 17.4 13.6 15.4 5.2 3.2 15.1 18.2 6.4 15.5 19.0 19.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 26.0 0.05.010.015.020.025.030.01 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2022 2023 3.4 2.5 4.2 2.7 2.5 2.3 1.4 3.2 7.9 11.0 4.5 11.0 2.6 4.1 4.9 7.0 5.6 5.2 8.0 10.0 12.0 19.0 19.0 22.0 0.05.010.015.020.025.01 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2022 2023 81.4 23 32.0GWh+120%10pct EIA 4 2015-2024E 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.8 2.2 10.4 14.6 32.0 54.5 9%-2%33%52%24%379%39%120%70%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%400%0.010.020.030.040.050.060.02015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E GWh%91.5 2023+152%EIA 2023 7-12 EIA 5 2022-2023 GW 0.13 0.08 0.24 0.62 0.03 0.29 0.41 0.43 0.13 0.83 0.08 0.94 0.09 0.09 0.28 0.30 0.11 1.92 2.07 1.49 1.02 0.61 0.97 1.70 0.00.51.01.52.02.51 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2022 2023101.6 2023 15.6GWh+50%6 2016-2024E BNEF 0.330.942.061.9 2.5 6.0 10.4 15.6 26.6 187%119%-8%30%142%74%50%70%-50%0%50%100%150%200%0.05.010.015.020.025.030.02016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E GWh%111.7 2023 6 364MWh 7 MWh 2023 7-12 2023 7-12 8 108 112 154 132 154 147 141 206 201 180 178 106 356 306 381 313 365 364 282 412 402 360 356 212 01002003004005001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2022 2023 9.25.610.8 10.513.219.117.019.518.025.827.9 27.528.7 12.2 27.4 21.9 22.5 25.7 30.5 38.9 41.4 40.0 41.9 38.5 0.010.020.030.040.050.01 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2022 202312 12 132.1 30/9 2021-2023/SMM 28.8 0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.01/61/131/201/272/32/102/172/243/33/103/173/243/314/74/144/214/285/55/125/195/266/26/96/166/236/307/77/147/217/288/48/118/188/259/19/89/159/229/2910/610/1310/2010/2711/311/1011/1711/2412/112/812/1512/2212/292021 2022 2023142.2 10 2022 7-2023 6 EPC/Wh 6 LFP 0.69/Wh+4.5%6 1.23/Wh-5.9%6 EPC 1.64/Wh+0.2%0.87 0.74 0.66 0.69 1.29 1.16 1.31 1.23 1.94 1.86 1.64 1.64 0.500.700.901.101.301.501.701.902.102022 7 2022 8 2022 9 2022 10 2022 11 2022 12 2023 1 2023 2 2023 3 2023 4 2023 5 2023 6 LFP EPC 152.3 CNESA 11 2021 2022 2023E 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3E 2023Q4E/11.5 47.8 25.0 41.9 47.4 48.5 56.0 38.7 25.5 25.0 25.0 LFP/Wh 0.53 0.78 0.65 0.71 0.79 0.80 0.82 0.79 0.68 0.65 0.65 LFP/Wh 1.00 0.65 1.02 0.99 0.90 0.69 0.65 0.65/Wh 1.48 1.25 1.47 1.48 1.46 1.52 1.39 1.30 1.25 1.25 EPC/Wh 1.81 1.60 1.63 1.84 1.85 1.92 1.90 1.70 1.60 1.60 162.4 Q3+2021 2022 2023E 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3E 2023Q4E 0.42 0.43 0.44 0.43 0.41 0.42 0.44 0.45 0.43 0.43 0.44 0.22 0.22 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.66 0.69 0.71 0.70 0.68 0.68 0.71 0.72 0.70 0.70 0.71 0.66 0.72 0.75 0.71 0.71 0.72 0.75 0.76 0.71 0.75 0.76 12/kWh 172.5 23Q2 EIA 2021 2022 2023E 2022Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2023Q1 2023Q2E 2023Q3E 2023Q4E 13.7 15.1 16.1 14.0 15.0 15.9 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.1 16.1 11.3 12.5 12.2 11.6 12.3 13.4 12.7 12.7 12.2 12.2 12.2 7.3 8.4 7.6 7.4 8.4 9.4 8.5 8.1 7.6 7.6 7.6 10.2 11.7 12.3 11.0 11.3 12.6 11.7 12.9 12.3 12.3 12.3 11.2 12.4 12.3 11.5 12.2 13.4 12.6 12.7 12.3 12.3 12.3 13/kWh 182.6 6 HEPI 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 23/22 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 23/22 1 19.2 18.8 18.6 25.3 30.7 1.2-4%1 30.7 33.2 33.1 50.1 54.2 1.16%2 19.1 18.6 18.7 23.8 28.3 1.2-8%2 31.1 33.3 33.3 39.9 49.5 1.2-9%3 19.1 18.6 18.8 25.2 25.9 1.0-8%3 31.1 33.6 33.3 41.7 44.1 1.1-11%4 19.0 18.3 18.9 27.1 25.1 0.9-3%4 31.1 33.0 33.3 42.1 40.5 1.0-8%5 19.0 18.1 19.0 27.1 25.1 0.90%5 31.7 32.7 33.3 42.7 39.6 0.9-2%6 19.1 18.0 19.1 27.2 24.5 0.9-2%6 32.4 32.5 33.0 39.8 39.3 1.0-1%7 19.1 17.9 19.6 28.5 25.7 0.95%7 32.4 32.2 33.4 39.9 39.9 1.02%8 19.0 17.9 20.0 30.9 24.7 0.8-4%8 32.4 32.5 33.6 44.6 40.1 0.90%9 19.1 18.0 20.3 34.7 24.3 0.7-2%9 32.4 32.5 33.4 54.9 41.1 0.83%10 19.2 18.2 21.2 35.4 24.8 0.72%10 32.4 32.0 33.3 63.0 41.0 0.70%11 19.2 18.1 22.2 33.0 23.7 0.7-4%11 32.7 32.0 37.2 64.2 41.7 0.72%12 19.2 18.2 23.0 31.8 25.5 0.87%12 32.7 32.2 36.2 51.1 41.4 0.8-1%19.1 18.2 20.0 29.2 25.7 31.9 32.6 33.9 47.8 42.7 14/kWh 19 19 PCS 203 PCS 15/Wh 1.281.481.25 0.78PCS 0.096 0.030 0.96PCS 0.102 0.030 0.78PCS 0.097 0.025 PCS AI 0.16 0.16 0.22 0.031 0.034 0.033 0.005 0.010 0.010 0.35 0.39 0.37 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.602023E20222021-PCS-PCS-21 21 224 23 23 SAC S1340522080004 24 2017 7 1 25 2002 9 50.6 010-67017788 17 100050 15800181922 9023 518048 18717767929 1080|3 20000026
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