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S00105220700032023 8 20 2 70%market research 2022 20.96 2029 31.72 23-29 CAGR 6.1%2029 19.38 23-29 CAGR 6.9%NSK THK 70%95%Optimus 28 14 14 3 2 4 8 YWCXuNmRoNpOoQmPnQtMoP9P9RbRnPmMnPpMfQrRuMjMmOrQbRnMpRxNoMqOMYpPsR 1 2 3 4 1.1 4 1 2 1.1 5 4 1+2+3+4+1 2 3 4 3 5 4 1.1 6:6 7 1.2 7 70:(1)(19731982)1973 3()1974 10()1982(2)(19821987)1976 JB3162 2-82 DIN69051(3)(19871991)JB3162 13-82 1985 JB/GQ1098-87 JB/GQ F1061-87 JB/GQ1098-87 ISO/TC39/WG7 N179“”JB3162 13-82(4)ISO(1990 ISO TC39 1969 WG7 1982 10 1983 ISO/TC39/WG7 1990 10JB3162 12-91 ISO 1973198219871991 ISO 8 GB/T17587.1-2017 1:GB/T39961-2021 JB/T10890.1-2020 1:JB/T12605-2016 JB/T13814-2020 JB/T13815-2020 JB/T3162-2011 JB/T9893-2020 9 1.3 8 1 C7 C10 C0C5 C3 C5 C7 C P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P7 P10 JIS C0 C1 C2 C3 C5 C7 C10 IT0 IT1 IT2 IT3 IT4 IT5 IT7 IT10 2 00.12mm 0+/-0.02mm 3 4 80%5 6 2 360 4 5 6 8 10 12 16 20 32 40 50 60 80 100 11 C0 C1 C2 C3 C5 C7 C10(E300)(um 3.5 5 7 8 18 50 210 10 1.4 90 5 5 9 12 13 1.4:10 14 1.5 80 1942 Carl Bruno Strandgren 10 1986 Carson,WilliamW.Oliver Saari 1996 Erhart,Timothy A.(Electro-MechanicalActuator EMA)(Electro-HydrostaticActuator EHA)11(EMB):15 1.6 Hertz Hertz 3 15 2 3g 0.5mm(3.32mm)12 26%-24%92%-98%90%3000RPS 3000-5000RPS 6000RPS 0 10 1000 60%17 designworld 16 1 2 3 4 2.1 1421.60%17.30%15.20%10.80%6.50%6.50%22.10%21.60%17.30%15.20%19 18 2.1 15 20 1874 1917 1940 1952 1954 1970 NSK Hiwin technologies Crop 1964 1982 JB3162-1982 1991 ISO3408:1991 NSK THK INA 0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.002022 2029E 2.2 16 2029 31.72 market research 2022 2029 31.72 2023-2029 6.11%2022 3.81 2029 5.45 2023-2029 5.35%2022 12.18 2029 19.38 2023 2029 6.9%2022 4.37 2029 6.12 2023 2029 4.78%21 22 2022 Marketresearch marketresearch 18%58%21%3%CAGR=5.3%2.2 17020040060080010001200140016002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2014-2021 12.96 25.6&2014-2021 269 983 576 1406 24&23 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.00 2.2 18 THK NSK 90%30%225/181/25 27 2014-2022/5%5%90%THK NSK40%30%30%THK NSK 26 225213204197191187 185181 180050100150200250 2.3 192023 3 Persistence Market Research 2022 2.85 2023 3:,2022 90%2022 Rollvis GSA Ewellix Rexroth 27%26%13%12%28 Persistence Market Research 0501001502002503003502019 2020 2022 2023E 29 2022 27%26%13%12%8%8%3%3%Rollvis GSA Ewellix Rexroth CMC 2.4 下游各行业的发展带动了市场对丝杠的需求：对高精度直线运动系统的需求增加。新能源 汽 车、航空航天和机器人等行业需要高精度线性运动系统来提高其运营效率和性能。不断发展的自动化和机器人产业。自动 化和 机 器人 技术 在各 个行 业中 的日 益普 及推 动了 对丝 杠的 需求。32 33 0%5%10%15%20%25%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E市场规模（亿元）增速 30 31 0%5%10%15%20%01002003004005006007002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E市场规模（亿元）增速0%20%40%60%80%100%05101520252017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E市场规模（千亿 元）yoy0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E市场规模（亿元）yoy 特斯拉人形机器人Optimus 整体躯干共有28 个关节执行器，其中线性执行器14 个，旋转执行器14 个。具体应用部位分别为 肩部6 个旋转执行器、肘部2 个线性执行器和2 个旋转执行器、腕部4 个线性执行器、腰部2 个旋转执行器、髋部4 个旋转执行器、腿部8 个线性执行器。28 Pitch X Yaw Z Roll Y AI AI 6 3 3 Tesla AI Day 2022 34 28 Tesla AI Day 2022 2.4 35 AI Optimus 3 14 AI 500N 3900N 8000N 2 4 8 Tesla AI Day 2022 36 Optimus 3 37 Optimus Tesla AI Day 2022 2.4 2.5 23 2022 3 2022-2024 2023 2 2023 2025 2023 4 2025 2023 2(2023-2025)2025 2022 11(1)(2)(3)2022 9 2021 12 2025(1)70%500(2)70%50%150(3)200 120 2021 11 2025 105 2021 11;2021 6 2020 7 2035 38 2020-2023 1 2 3 4 3.1 2017-2022 10.35%2023 H1 6.34 29.42%2017-2022 10.66%2023 H1 1.30 59.99%2020 2021 2022 21.12%12.03pct 2017 16.11%2023H1 9.92%5 6.19pct 25 iFinD 39 40 41 42 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%05000100001500020000250002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 0%10%20%30%40%50%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1%-5%0%5%10%15%20%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%0200004000060000800001000001200002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 iFinD iFinD iFinD 3.1 2022 1 300 70 30 26 100%51%62%100%20%43 3.2 2017-2022 6.45%2022 41.01 2017-2022 53.65%2022 3.26 2021 2018 2019 2023 Q1 18.59%6.23%2017 18.82%2023Q1 11.36%5 7.46pct 27 44 45 46 47-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%01000002000003000004000005000006000002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1(-1000%-800%-600%-400%-200%0%200%400%-40000-30000-20000-100000100002000030000400002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-20%-10%0%10%20%30%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1 0%5%10%15%20%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1 iFinD iFinD iFinD iFinD 3.2 2 2022 12.3 1.8 3 4 70%5/28 980/2.744 13 1050/1.365 5 2 3 28()/980 280000 27440 102 300000 3060 1050 130000 13650 225 260000 5850 50000()15600 78.00%1753.6 8.77%646.4 3.23%400 2.00%1300 6.50%300 1.50%20000 100.00%49 48 3.2 2022 17260.83 13.30%2018-2022 26.86%2022 31.64%52.84%2022 2022 27 192 29 iFinD 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%0500010000150002000025000300002018 2019 2020 2021 2022零部件类业务毛利（万元）零部件类业务毛利率（%）50 2018-2022 51 2018-2022 iFinD 3.3+2017-2022 24.01%2022 81.97 11.95%2023Q1 24.27 10.3%2017-2022 43.88%2022 23.49 2023 Q1 40.86%2022 0.31pct 25.81%2017 16.75%2023Q1 4.48%5 12.27pct 30 52 53 54 55-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%0500001000001500002000002500003000002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%020000040000060000080000010000002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1 0%10%20%30%40%50%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-10%0%10%20%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1%iFinD iFinD iFinD iFinD 3.3+2022 14 2024 104000 4500 750 100000 100000 31()25000 2023 5 2023 140000 2024 0 2024 0 2023 10000 2023 56 584 57 3.4 32 2022 9 6 16,000 100 400 200 3 1 16,700 3 26,540.19 20,500.002 14,000 13,116.92 9,600.003 3,026.00 2,500.004 12,000.00 12,000.00 54,683.11 44,600.00 58 3.5 33 T 0.01mm 500 150mm 2023 3 24 97 9 ACME T 59 60 1 2 3 4 1.2.3.4.5.6.35 36 6 A 300 500 6 5%;6-5%5%;6 5%;6-12 15%6-12 5%15%6-12-5%5%6-12 5%6-12 15%
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