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2023 8 3 S1060521030001 S1060522030001 S1060123070041 证 券 研 究报告 1 1850-1920 1920-1933 1933-1980 1980-2010:2010 21 2010,2011 Cr3 81%2021 70%1 2 3 4ZXEVuNsPpMrQoQtQqNoRpOaQ8Q7NmOqQsQnOjMpPxPeRrRmQ9PnNyQwMtQpRMYrMoR-Statista Economic History Association National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism1900-20200100020003000400050006000700080009000100000501001502002501900190219041906190819101912191419161918192019221924192619281930193219341936193819401942194419461948195019521954195619581960196219641966196819701972197419761978198019821984198619881990199219941996199820002002200420062008201020122014201620182020总产量（百万桶，左轴）啤酒厂家数量（家，右轴）第 一 阶 段：1920 年以前发展初期第 二 阶 段：1920-1933 年寒冬期第 三 阶 段：1933-1980 年快 速 扩 张期第 四 阶 段：1980-2010 年存 量 竞 争期第 五 阶 段：2010 年至今规 模 下 滑期2C O N T E NT S1850-1920 1920-1933 1933-1980 1980-2010:2010 3 19 19 1920 1400 13.2%19 Pabst Schlitz 19 1865 22%1910 45.5%1865 3.4 1910 20 1850-19501.1 1850-1920 Migration Policy Institute(MPI)US Census Bureau 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%02468101214161850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950移民人数（百万）移民占美国总人口比例（%）1790-1950 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%05101520251865 1870 1875 1880 1885 1890 1895 1900 1905 1910 1915人均啤酒消费（加仑）城市人口比例（%）4 1860 1860 1869 Anheuser-Busch Pabst Schlitz Anheuser-Busch 1876 1877 Anheuser-Busch Pabst Schlitz 19 1893 Pabst 1.2 1850-1920 University of Nebraska Lincoln 5C O N T E NT S1850-1920 1920-1933 1933-1980 1980-2010:2010 6 19 1917 1.28%1919 10 0.5%30 1933 12 2.1 1920-1933 1918 1.28%1919 0.5%1933 3 3.2%1933 12-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%0246810121920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933生产量（百万桶）Yoy（%）7 Anheuser-Busch Bevo 500 1929 Bevo Anheuser-Busch 1918 1000 1933 300 Coors Pabst 2.2 1920-1933Anheuser-Busch 8C O N T E NT S1850-1920 1920-1933 1933-1980 1980-2010:2010 9 1933 15%1935 1945 1944 18 1945-1960 Yoy 1%1946 1945-1970 GDP CAGR 3.5%1953 3.7 1978 6.7 1960 9300 1978 1.79 Yoy 5%Brewer s Almanac US Census Bureau 103.1 1933-1980 1935-1975 1935-1975 05101520251935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975人 均消费量（加 仑）-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%0204060801001201401601801935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975生 产 量（百万桶）Yoy（%）010000200003000040000500006000070000800001953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977中产家庭年均收入（美元）2021 1935 1935 35%1975 88%15%Anheuser-Busch Pabst Schlitz 113.2 1933-1980 1935-19750%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975罐装与瓶装啤酒销售占比 生啤销售占比 1978 CR10 92.3%Brewers Association 1947 CR5 19%1978 CR5 74.3%CR10 92.3%1950 350 1980 4600 1980 Brewers Association 123.3 1933-1980 0 50 100 150 200 250 300Anheuser-BuschPabst BrewingJos.SchlitzF&M SchaferP.BallantineJacob RuppertFalstaff BrewingDuquesne BrewingTheo.Hamm BrewingLiebman Breweries1940（万桶）1939（万桶）1938(万桶）0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%1947 1954 1958 1964 1968 1974 1978CR5 CR10啤酒商 产量（桶）1 Schlitz 5,096,8402 Anheuser-Busch 4,928,0003 Ballantine 4,375,0004 Pabst 3,418,6775 F&M Schaefer 2,772,0006 Liebmann Bros.2,965,5227 Falstaff 2,286,7078 Miller 2,105,7069 Blatz 1,756,00010 Pfeiffer 1,618,0771 9 5 0 年前十大啤酒商产量啤酒商 产量（桶）1 Anheuser-Busch 50,200,0002 Miller 37,300,0003 Pabst 15,091,0004 Schlitz 14,900,0005 Coors 13,800,0006 Heileman 13,270,0007 Stroh 6,161,2558 Olympia 6,091,0009 Falstaff 3,901,00010 C.Schmidt 3,625,0001 9 8 0 年前十大啤酒商产量C O N T E NT S1850-1920 1920-1933 1933-1980 1980-2010:2010 13 1990 Brewers Almanac 1980 1981 1989 2 1990 2.03 2010 1.95 1981 Yoy-1%-1%1981 26 2010 19 Brewers Almanac,141980-20104.1 1980-2010:-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%165170175180185190195200205210总产量（百万桶）Yoy(%)0510152025301980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010人均消费量（加仑）1980 70 GDP 1978 1 1988 2 2010 48000 Brewers Almanac 1981 26 2010 19 Brewers Almanac,151980-2010 GDP 4.2 1980-2010:75%80%85%90%95%100%啤酒 红酒 蒸馏酒-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00019781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010人均GDP（美元现价）Yoy(%)1970 1974 1%1980 Brewers Association 2010 13%1979 1980 90 2000 Brewers Association UN Comtrade 16 4.3 1980-2010:1978-20100%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%进口啤酒市场份额（%）151963024681012141618202008-2018 2019-2030阳光地带 非阳光地带+10%+13%+3%+2%78%13%6%进口啤酒来源地市场份额（%）墨西哥荷兰加拿大德国其他 1978 1978/Alcoholic Beverage Control Board,174.4 1980-2010:5.0+%5%14%9 To C 6.0%To C To C 1980 48 Anheuser-Busch 1978 2010 2300 1980 1980 Stroh Schaefer Schlitz Anheuser-Busch Miller Heileman Olympia C.Schmidt Pabst Brewers Almanac,184.5 1980-2010:1981-200105001000150020002500啤酒厂数量 1981 Stroh F.&M.Schaefer 1970 1982 Stroh Schlitz 1980 1983 Heileman Olympia 1980 1985 Pabst P.Ballantine 1960 1987 Heileman Christian Schmidt 1980 10 1990 Pabst Falstaff 1980 9 Fort Wayne 1996 Stroh1994 Heileman 1980 6 1996 Stroh1999Pabst MillerStroh 1980 7 Pabst Miller Pabst 2001 Miller Pabst 1980 3 Miller 1981 Anheuser-Busch 1995 2002 Miller SAB SAB Miller 2005 Coors Molson Molson Coors 2008 SAB Miller Miller Coors 2008Anheuser-Busch 2013 Modelo Constellation Modelo 2015 SAB Miller Miller Coors,194.6 1980-2010:1981Anheuser-Busch Anheuser-Busch 2002 Miller SAB Miller SAB Miller2002 Coors Bass Brewers,Coors Brewers2005 Coors Molson Coors Creemore Springs2008Molson Coors SAB Miller MillerCoors,2008 AB Inbev Anheuser-Busch AB Inbev2013 AB Inbev Corona Grupo Modelo2013Constellation Grupo Modelo 2015 AB Inbev SAB Miller2015Molson Coors Miller CoorsC O N T E NT S1850-1920 1920-1933 1933-1980 1980-2010:2010 20 2009 GDP 2012 GDP 50000 2020 21/22 70000 2011-2019 Yoy 2%-3%2020 2021 62%US Census Bureau,215.1 2010 GDP 62%12%2020年种族结构白人黑 人 或 非 洲裔印 第 安 与 阿拉斯加原住民亚洲人其 他 太 平 洋居民其他种族多种族83%12%1980 年种族结构白人黑 人 或 非 洲裔印 第 安 与 阿拉斯加原住民亚洲人其 他 太 平 洋居民其他种族多种族-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,0002011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022美国人均GDP（美元）Yoy(%)1/350ML WISK 2022 Bud Light Michelob Ultra MillerLite 12 350ml 7-12 Bud Light Miller Lite 10.98 14-16 17-21 WISK Corona Extra Heineken NIQ Modelo 2023 6 Bud Light Blue Moon WISK 225.2 2010 2023.7.26 2022 低端 容量 数量 价格（美元）Budlight 350ml 12 10.98Michelob Ultra 350ml 12 12.27Budweiser 350ml 12 10.98Miller Lite 350ml 12 10.98Coors Light 350ml 12 10.98高端 容量 数量 价格（美元）Blue Moon 350ml 12 18.98Little Things 350ml 12 18.73FireStone Walker 350ml 12 16.98Truly（硬苏打水）350ml 12 18.98White Claw（硬苏 打 水）350ml 12 17.48 2018 1107 2022 1027 1400/1613/2021 Yoy 5.68%Constellation Brands 2010 71%2022 40%2010 29%2019 60%CAGR 2019-2023 9%IRI,MULO+C 235.3 2010 2019-2023 CAGR%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%低端市场 高端市场CAGR（%）29%52%60%71%48%40%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2010 2019 2022高端市场 低端市场2018-2022 1,2501,3001,3501,4001,4501,5001,5501,6001,65098010001020104010601080110011202018 2019 2020 2021 2022销量（万吨）左轴 吨价(美元/吨）右轴 Hops 20 2008 Citra Citra IPA 75 NBWA 2011 2011 87 2022 280 2011 5.7%2022 13%1984 Boston Beer Company 2021 4%Brewer Association NBWA 245.4 2010 39%20%11%4%26%2021年美国市场份额（%）百 威 英博摩 森 康胜星 座 品牌Boston其他0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%$0$5,000$10,000$15,000$20,000$25,000$30,000$35,0002011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022精酿啤酒市场（万美元)左轴 市场份额（%）右轴 2010 Brewers Association 2001 2001-2010 1500 2.5 2010 2010 1813 2022 9700 435%2016 5.86 2011 Cr3 81%2021 Cr3 70%Brewers Association,NBWA 255.5 2010 2011 2022 2001-201601000200030004000500060007000012345672001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016啤酒厂就业数量（万个）左轴 啤酒厂数量（个）右轴81%70%87%81%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2011 2021Cr3 Cr6 2022 78%2022 42%24%23%59%265.6 2010 2022+39%42%19%居家办公混合办公现场工作 IRI 88%2022 291 1944 1993 2013Modelo Corona Funky Buddha IRI,Total U.S.All Outlet 275.7 2010 2023 12%88%市场份额（%)只喝单种类酒倾向多种类酒291840194405001000150020002500只喝单种类酒 喝两种酒 啤酒、红酒、烈酒都喝酒 类 人 均消费价（美元）05010015020025030018-0718-1019-0119-0419-0719-1020-0120-0420-0720-1021-0121-0421-0721-1022-0122-0422-0722-1023-0123-04星座品牌 收盘价C O N T E NT S1850-1920 1920-1933 1933-1980 1980-2010:2010 28296.1-1 2 3 306.2 Wind wind 2023/8/3 EPS PE()2022A 2023E 2024E 2022A 2023E 2024E600600.SH 96.45 2.72 3.27 3.85 35.5 29.5 25.1/600132.SH 91.27 2.61 3.35 3.88 34.9 27.3 23.5 000729.SZ 11.21 0.12 0.21 0.30 89.7 53.9 37.8 316.3 1 2 3 2022 36.85%4:6 300 20%6 300 10%20%6 300 10%6 300 10%:6 300 5%6 300 5%6 300 5%2020 32:6 20%6 10%20%6 10%6 10%:6 5%6 5%6 5%2023
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