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2009 1210 2023 08 04 12 17-19/U L 14.4kg/50%/+70%13 21 17/13-14 22“”“”16 PE 13 14 16 S0360520070001 S0360520090001 021-20572598 S0360518040001%()127 0.02()61,327.96 6.43()58,211.56 8.05%1M 6M 12M-6.0%12.9%1.1%-3.9%6.3%0.9%600887 2023-05-15 002946 2023-02-26 600887 2022-03-26-24%-14%-4%7%22/08 22/10 22/12 23/03 23/05 23/082022-08-042023-08-04 300 2009 1210 2 YWBYwPrMpMmNtNpMrMqPnM8ObPbRtRqQoMmPeRpPuMjMoOpQ7NoPrMvPsQqNxNtQrN 2009 1210 1 U L 14.4kg/50%2 13-14 22 3 16 PE 2009 1210 4.8.8.8.12 1.12 2.14 3 U.16.17 1.17 2.19 3.21 4.23.25.25.26 CR2.29.31+.31.34.38.38.39.40 2009 1210 5 1/kg/.8 2.9 3.9 4.10 5.10 6.10 7.10 8 90.11 9.11 10.12 11 4%.13 12/.13 13.14 14 70%+100%.14 15 GDP.14 16.14 17/.15 18.16 19 2.16 20 L.16 21 U.16 22/.17 23.17 24.18 25 2022.18 26 2022.18 27.18 28.18 29.19 30 21%.20 31.20 32.20 33.21 2009 1210 6 34.21 35.21 36.22 37 CPI.22 38.22 39 00.23 40 90.23 41/.23 42 2021.24 43.25 44 2017.26 45 14-19 14%.26 46 70%.26 47 2022.27 48.27 49.27 50.27 51.28 52 2010.29 53.29 54 2022.30 55 13-22 CAGR-4%+2%.30 56 14-17.30 57.30 58 2021 60%.31 59.31 60.31 61.31 62 2012-2022 CAGR 11.4%.32 63.32 64.32 65 2020.32 66.33 67.33 2009 1210 7 68 18.33 69.33 70.34 71 16-17.34 72 2 10.34 73 2023Q1.35 74.35 75 5.35 76.36 77 2020.36 78.37 79.37 80&.38 81 22 12.38 82 2023.38 83 Q2.38 84 2021 8.39 85 20.39 86.39 87 23Q2.39 88.40 2009 1210 8 2012 2017-2019 1 2 3 4/1 2008 2007 17.8kg/2014 2021 14.4kg/100kg/200kg/1/kg/wind USDA F AO 1 1:1 1:8 2009 1210 9+250kg/2021 285 258 390kg/60-70 1975 0.89 8.56kg/2021 6.5 18.3kg/2 USDA F AO CLAL/1:1/1:8/1:2.5 1:10 1:1 1 8+150kg/2021 194.5 180.8kg/80 90 2013 143.2kg/3 USDA F AO 2009 1210 10/+100kg/2021 94.4 85.7kg/31.5 42.3kg/2.6 3.7kg/2005 2007 2008 2021 82.9 21.7kg/+20kg/2008 2021 14.4 18.1kg/2021 4 5 6 7 F AO wind 2009 1210 11 0.1kg/8 90 9 F AO&CLAL(250kg/)150kg/100kg/20kg/100kg/70 70kg/25-30kg/2009 1210 12 10 F AO IMF wind&2013 GDP 2022 2013 2021 2022 2021 1 2.36 2.27 3.17 1.77 1.57 2009 1210 13 11 4%12/&wind F AO 1977 2005 47.08%1981 15.1 2005 22.7 51%20 60 200 1970 1-3 75%21 2.1 23%60 105 100%2002 WTO TRQ SSG SSG 2004 1 2022 6 2013 TRQ 2009 1210 14 13“”14 70%+100%1 2 3 1970-1980 1981-1985 1985-1996/39 136 170/1800000 3600000 9300000/(kg/d)2.6 5.8 10.9/(kg/d)3800000 8800000 18100000/(kg/d)261000 508000 842000/(kg/d)2800000 5000000 9900000 wind 15 GDP 16 wind 2 1954 2020 92%2002 1970-1985 400%+51%2005 2 2007 12 3 200 2009 1210 15 17/2004 年 190 97%1946 年 3000 59%-2013 年 14 35%1937 1967 2013 10 1954 年 10 92%2012 864 1970 年 575 51%60%40%2005 年 2005 2 2007 12 3 200ml 2000 年 2600 17%6-15 3 2 2009 1210 16 18 19“2”3 U L U L U 25 60 L 20-69 20 00 0.1kg/20 L 21 U,2009 1210 17 22/23 wind CLAL 2021 5 1 50%24%2022 602 201 2022 420 147 24%10000 70%2021 8.7 2011-2021 4.9%10 20%2009 1210 18 24 25 2022&26 2022 27 28&2020 2021 2009 1210 19 2 2000 2000 2013 2021 21%95%92%51%20 2021-2025 2021-2025 2600 3500 21%28%2022 2022 300-500 2016 300 29 2014 2(2014-2020)2020 36 2018 6 2025 2018 12 2020 12“”2021-2025 2025 3500 28%2021 11“”2022 2“”2022 4 2022 300-500 2016 300 5 2009 1210 20 30 21%2021-2025 2020 2 52.54%2018 240ml 2022 255ml 19.5%24.2%31 32,6 886 2020 2 6 18 2,6 886 2009 1210 21 33 2022 3 3.6/kg 34 35&2009 1210 22 36 wind USDA&Amazon Walmart savegnago woolworths Tesco homeplus P ARKnSHOP countdown/2022 2021 2020 19-21 2021 2022 2023 CPI CPI 90 90 70-80 1985 3.5%2020 18.1%37 CPI 38 Wind 2009 1210 23 39 00 40 90 wind 4 50%/41/Euromonitor 1 2021 2=-2009 1210 24-+29.8 24.0kg/3:1:2 35kg 45kg 30-60%-13-17kg/21 2.3:0.9:1-80%-23 42 2021 wind 2009 1210 25 60%90 43,21 2017 1999 1 1999-2008 2 2008-2016 14 3 2017 2014-2019 14.4%2009 1210 26 44 2017 1999-2008 2017 2008-2013 2014-2016 45 14-19 14%46 70%“”14-15 14-15 2009 1210 27“”47 2022 48 2022 2014H1 2018H1 2013H1 60%/2013-2014 2018-2020 2015-2016 2021 49 50 wind 2019-2021 20%+2019 2020 2021 2022 2009 1210 28 51 wind 2013-2014 2020 2021 7 5000 2017 15.0%2021 33.5%2009 1210 29 52 2010 53 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 16 16 20 27 30 222 322 357 418 430 72.0 108.0 117.5 166.9 181.5 479.3 469.1 460.7 506.0 541.4 15.02%23.02%25.50%32.98%33.51%2023&2020,7%2021 CR2 CR2 70%70%2013 21 CR5 90%2017 2013 17 A2/2009 1210 30 54 2022 55 13-22 CAGR-4%+2%56 14-17 57 2009 1210 31+60%/06 12 12 15 2010 58 2021 60%59&60 61 2022 2009 1210 32 62 2012-2022 CAGR 11.4%63 wind 2020 70%64 2025 2025 2030 5 9-10%30-50bp 2023 23Q2 30bp 65 2020 wind 2021 21 22.1%0.1%2009 1210 33 8 0 66 67 2017-2019 20 2018 2018 16 PE 13 14 16 68 18 69 wind wind 2009 1210 34 70 wind 2014-2016/16-17 10+207%2 10 71 16-17 72 2 10 wind wind 2009 1210 35 73 2023Q1 wind 13 5 22 3.6%7.2%CAGR 30%1 40%+30%50%2-3pcts 2)1-2pcts 3 22 3.6%7-8%23Q1 20%+74 75 5 2022 2027E CAGR 22 27 21.0 57 22%21.0%31.6%10.6%27.0 47.8 12%27.0%26.5%-0.5%39.7 59 8%39.7%32.7%-7.0%0.7 1.9 22%0.7%1.1%0.3%11.6 14.8 5%11.6%8.2%-3.4%100.1 180.5 12.5%100.0%100.0%3.6%7.5%3.6 13.5 30.2%2021 2022 wind 2009 1210 36 1.7-1.8 1.3/22 23Q1 65%-70%80%23Q2 Q1 76 77 2020 22 98.3%73.5%2 4 22/39.3%/38.6%/20.6%10 45%23 10%+H1 50-75%2009 1210 37 78 79 2009 1210 38 23+6-7.7%Q2 80&81 22 12 82 2023 83 Q2 wind 2020 2020 22Q2 2023 7 8.7%1-2 23Q3 2009 1210 39 84 2021 8 85 20 IFCN wind&wind 86 87 23Q2 wind wind 20 23 PE 17 3.7%20%2009 1210 40 23 PE 20 88 wind:wind 2023 7 28 1 2 3 22 23E 24E 25E 22 23E 24E 25E 22 23E 24E 25E 22 23E 24E 25E 22 23E 24E 25E伊利股份 1227.0 1314.9 1434.1 1557.3 11%7%9%9%94.3 107.5 125.4 145.6 8%14%17%16%19 17 14 12蒙牛乳业 929.4 1062.7 1162.1 1266.8 5%14%9%9%53.0 61.6 72.1 83.4 6%16%17%16%20 17 15 13新乳业 100.1 113.8 127.8 142.8 12%14%12%12%3.6 5.0 6.7 8.5 16%37%35%27%37 27 20 16天润乳业 24.1 28.8 34.6 41.6 14%20%20%20%2.0 2.6 3.3 4.0 31%34%25%22%27 20 16 13燕塘乳业 18.8 21.3 24.1 26.9-6%14%13%12%1.0 1.7 2.1 2.6-37%66%29%23%38 22 17 14证券简称收入：亿元 收 入：Y o Y 业绩：亿元 业 绩：Y o Y P E：倍 2009 1210 41 6 2020 2021-2022 4 2019 2020 2021 4 2020 2020 2022 2022 3 2020 14 2013 2022 2009 1210 42 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 2009 1210 43 A 300 500/6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%002946 26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522
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