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|2023 09 05 AI 2023 1 AI 162 14462 5.8%1227.7 7.2%AI 2 AI AI OEM AI AI 3+C/B/G C ARPU B AI 5G AI C ARPU 70%4 AI AI AI AI AI 1 2 AI BOSS AI S0680519010002 S0680519050002 1 2023-08-27 2 AI 2023-08-22 3 2023-08-22 EPS P E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 300308.SZ 1.52 2.20 4.31 4.78 73.78 50.98 26.02 23.46 300502.SZ 1.27 1.24 2.06 2.95 34.84 35.69 21.48 15.00 300394.SZ 1.02 1.32 1.73 2.18 79.40 61.36 46.82 37.15 300570.SZ 0.78 1.01 1.88 2.21 43.88 33.89 18.21 15.49 688195.SH 0.45 0.64 0.93 1.38 80.49 56.59 38.95 26.25 600941.SH 5.87 6.41 6.97 7.50 17.12 15.68 14.42 13.40 601728.SH 0.30 0.34 0.38 0.41 19.07 16.82 15.05 13.95 600050.SH 0.23 0.26 0.31 0.36 22.61 20.00 16.77 14.44 Wind-16%0%16%32%48%2022-09 2023-01 2023-05 2023-08 300 2023 09 05 P.2 1.AI.4 2.AI.6 2.1.6 2.2.6 2.3.9 2.4.10 2.5.11 3.13 3.1 AI.14 3.1.1+.14 3.1.2 AI.15 3.2.18 3.3AI.25 4.29 5.31 6.35 1 2021H1-2023H1.6 2 2018H1-2023H1.6 3 18Q1-23Q2.6 4 2021H1-2023H1.7 5 2021H1-2023H1.7 6 2018Q1-2023Q2%19Q4.7 7.8 8 18Q1-23Q2%.8 9 18Q1-23Q2%.9 10 22H1 23H1.9 11 2022H1 2023H1.9 12 20Q3-23Q2%.10 13 18Q1-23Q2%.10 14 2018H1-2023H1.11 15 20Q3 23Q2.11 16 2022H1-2023H1%.12 17 2022H1-2023H1%.12 18 22H1-23H1.13 19 22H1-23H1.13 20.14 21.14 22.15 23 2021.15 24 2022.15 ZXDWvMtOnOpOrPnOtOsNrQbR9R9PpNrRmOpMlOqQvMlOmMmRbRnMnQxNtOqMvPoNsR2023 09 05 P.3 25 NVLink GH200 GPU.16 26.16 27.16 28 4x10GQSFP+AOC.17 29 400GQSFP-DD AOC.17 30 DACSFP.17 31 ACC Redriver AEC Retimer.17 32 AOC DAC.18 33 AOC DAC.18 34.19 35.19 37 ARPU.19 37.20 38 DOU GB/.20 39 5G%.21 40 B.21 41 B%.21 42.22 43.22 44.23 45 2023.23 46 2023.24 47.24 48.25 49 2012-2018 AI.26 50.27 51.27 52.27 53.28 54 100G IB.28 55 AIGC.29 56.31 2023 09 05 P.4 1.AI AI 40%ChatGPT AIGC 5 AI AIGC GPU Q2 Q3 AI AI AI AIGC AI AGI Token GPU Q2 SaaS AGI AI+AI+AI 5G AI 2023 AI AI 1 124 2 54 2023 09 05 P.5 3 16 ST ST A ST-U ST*ST ST 4 124+54-16=162 5 14 PCB 6 2018 6 50%2 2020 A 2020 2023 09 05 P.6 2.AI 2.1 2023 23H1 5.8%2.7%1 2021H1-2023H1 2 2018H1-2023H1 Wind Wind 23Q2 AI 23Q2 4.1%3.5 23Q1 5G 23Q2 AI 3 18Q1-23Q2 Wind 2.2 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%11000115001200012500130001350014000145001500021H1 22H1 23H1 yoy%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%05001000150020002500300035004000450018H1 19H1 20H1 21H1 22H1 23H1 yoy%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%18Q1 18Q3 19Q1 19Q3 20Q1 20Q3 21Q1 21Q3 22Q1 22Q3 23Q1%2023 09 05 P.7 1228 7.2%2023 152 5%4 2021H1-2023H1 5 2021H1-2023H1 Wind Wind 758.5 7.5%94.2 0.4%6 2018Q1-2023Q2%19Q4 Wind 1 18Q4 19Q4 2 19Q4 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%020040060080010001200140021H1 22H1 23H1 yoy%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%02040608010012014016018018H1 19H1 20H1 21H1 22H1 23H1 yoy%-150%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%18Q1 18Q3 19Q1 19Q3 20Q2 20Q4 21Q2 21Q4 22Q2 22Q4 23Q2%2023 09 05 P.8 7 Wind 2018 2020 5G ARPU B 15.3%8 18Q1-23Q2%Wind-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%05001000150020002500300035004000450050002004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023H1%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4 19Q1 19Q2 19Q3 19Q4 20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 2023 09 05 P.9 9 18Q1-23Q2%Wind 2.3 0.1 pct 10 22H1 23H1 Wind 11 2022H1 2023H1 Wind 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4 19Q1 19Q2 19Q3 19Q4 20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%22H1 23H1+0.1PCT-0.1PCT-0.1PCT+0.1PCT+0.1PCT0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%22H1 23H1-0.5PCT+0.2PCT+0.1PCT-0.1PCT-0.1PCT 2023 09 05 P.10 12 20Q3-23Q2%Wind 13 18Q1-23Q2%Wind*18Q3 2.4 2021H1 15.8%16.4%15.1%15.4%14.8%15.9%14.6%14.1%14.9%16.2%14.5%14.3%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 12.8%11.5%12.0%13.6%12.7%12.2%12.1%14.3%13.4%11.2%12.1%12.8%11.1%10.7%11.0%11.7%11.1%10.6%11.3%12.3%11.4%10.4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4 19Q1 19Q2 19Q3 19Q4 20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 2023 09 05 P.11 14 2018H1-2023H1 Wind 15 20Q3 23Q2 Wind 2.5 2023 14.3%1.7 33.9%3.1-90-68-50-105-2847-120-100-80-60-40-20020406018H1 19H1 20H1 21H1 22H1 23H1 02004006008001000120014001600180020Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 2023 09 05 P.12 16 2022H1-2023H1%17 2022H1-2023H1%Wind Wind 13%14%15%16%17%22H1 23H1%-1.7PCT29%30%31%32%33%34%35%22H1 23H1%+3.1PCT 2023 09 05 P.13 3.5G 18 22H1-23H1 Wind 19 22H1-23H1 Wind AI Beta 10.7%24.8%-3.8%6.0%12.1%-9.0%6.9%13.2%10.2%-5.0%16.4%21.3%3.5%2.6%7.4%-11.0%12.4%7.1%5.8%15.0%17.3%-1.8%-6.1%-5.6%-10.4%-11.0%3.9%-12.0%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%PCB22H1 23H115.4%32.4%-58.7%121.2%-6.9%72.0%6.5%44.2%156.6%-1.9%199.5%27.6%113.1%-15.2%9.0%-10.5%22.7%-0.4%-10.4%-19.8%2.4%13.3%-33.3%-1.8%-84.9%10.3%18.9%-37.9%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%PCB22H1 23H1 2023 09 05 P.14 3.1 AI 3.1.1+AI 2023 654 6%AIGC 23Q1 AI 20 Wind 21 Wind ChatGPT AIGC AI IDC 2022-2023 2022 AI 268EFLOPS 4 CAGR 36.5%02000400060008000100001200014000160001800018Q3 19Q1 19Q3 20Q1 20Q3 21Q1 21Q3 22Q1 22Q3 23Q1 Meta-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%19Q3 19Q4 20Q1 20Q2 20Q3 20Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 Meta 2023 09 05 P.15 22 IDC&2022-2023 2023 2 59867 10205 17.05%2023 1 5G 23 2021 24 2022 3.1.2 AI AI AI I/O AI GH200 GPU 20M,1.0%20M-100M,5.7%100M-1000M,86.6%1000M,6.5%20M,1.2%20M-100M,4.8%100M-1000M,78.4%1000M,15.6%2023 09 05 P.16 25 NVLink GH200 GPU Nvidia AI DCI+AOC Active Optical Cables DAC DirectAttachCables DAC ACC AEC DAC TOSA ROSA+DCI I/O 26 27 Fibermall Fibermall AOC AOC DDM 2023 09 05 P.17 InfiniBand 100 AOC VCSEL 28 4x10GQSFP+AOC 29 400GQSFP-DD AOC DAC DAC ACC Active Copper Cable AEC Active Electrical Cable DAC AEC ACC retimer ACC AEC DAC DAC ACC AEC AOC DAC 400G 800G 3m 2m 30 DACSFP 31 ACC Redriver AEC Retimer Intel+AOC DAC GPU+AOC DAC AOC AI DAC AOC 2023 09 05 P.18 32 AOC DAC 33 AOC DAC A AOC 100 DAC ACC 2-3 AEC AEC 5-7 Wind molex LPO MTP/MPO 3.2 C 2023 2023 ARPU ARPU C 2023 09 05 P.19 34 35 Wind Wind 36 ARPU Wind C 1.ARPU 1.54%ARPU C 0100020003000400050006000700080009000100002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 02004006008001000120014002014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023H1 52.446.244.80102030405060702014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 2023 09 05 P.20 37 Wind 2.DOU DOU DOU C C 38 DOU GB/Wind 3.5G 5G 5G 5G ARPU 4G 4/5G 5G ARPU C 3.28%2.91%2.75%2.55%2.17%1.82%1.70%1.61%1.54%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 ARPU ARPU 0.20.380.751.736.258.5911.9214.7216.1816.780246810121416182014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2023 09 05 P.21 39 5G%Wind B B 2023 14.6%16.5%16.7%40 B 41 B%Wind Wind 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 0200400600800100012001400160018002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 2023 09 05 P.22 42 Wind 2023 2023 422.2 80.5%458.9 63.4%2023 255 36.4%IDC AI PaaS 43 Wind 5G AI 2022 2022 3519 3.7%2023 3591 2%19.7%26.6%22.4%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%020040060080010001200140016002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023H1%2023 09 05 P.23 44 Wind 5G 5G 2023 B IDC 45 2023 050010001500200025002004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222023H1 2023 09 05 P.24 46 2023 AI AI AI AI A A A 70%2022 67%/65%50%47 9 1 2022 2022 2023 2023 2023 67.100 4.41 6.57%67.0%9.2%70.0%5.03 7.50%3.750 0.23 6.13%65.0%13.8%70.0%0.28 7.52%5.540 0.31 5.60%50.0%14.8%50.0%0.36 6.42%Wind 2023 2023 09 05 P.25 B 2023-2025 1370.21/1488.96/1604.10 yoy 9.2%/8.7%/7.7%EPS 6.41/6.97/7.50 2023-2025 314.12/346.30/376.32 yoy13.8%/10.2%/8.7%EPS 0.34/0.38/0.41 C B 2023-2025 83.81/97.77/113.30 YoY+14.8%/+16.7%/+15.9%2023-2025 EPS 0.26/0.31/0.36 3.3AI AI AIGC 48 2023 09 05 P.26 AI GPU GPU AIGC AI 18-24 CEO 12 GPU OpenAI 2012 2018 AI 3-4 30 7 10 49 2012-2018 AI OpenAI AI ChatGPT Language Models are Few-Shot Learners ChatGPT GPT-3 1750 3640PF-days 3640 A100 0.6PFLOPS GPT-3 1750 6000 A100 A100 A100 10 10 GPT4 4 5 ChatGPT Plus OpenAI OpenAI ChatGPT 2023 09 05 P.27 50 Language Models are Few-Shot Learners 5G 1992 5G EPC 2023 6 2023 8 500P 51 52 AI 2003 IT AI 100G/IB 200G/IB 2023 09 05 P.28 100G IB 2023 7 53 54 100G IB AI AI AI 1 2 3 4 1 2 14 AI 3 IT 4 5 IDC 6 2023 09 05 P.29 4.AIGC 2023 AIGC AIGC AIGC 2023 NLP AIGC AIGC 55 AIGC 9 AIGC 2023 AI/800G 1.6T CPO ASIC 2023 09 05 P.30 MPO CPO CPO MPO+1 2023 IFRS 17 2026 IFRS 9 2 AI A+B 2022 2023 TMT BOSS 2023 09 05 P.31 5.56 600050.SH 601728.SH 600941.SH 300628.SZ 002467.SZ 300578.SZ 603516.SH 600804.SH ST 300047.SZ 002335.SZ 300017.SZ 603881.SH 600797.SH 300846.SZ 300383.SZ 600602.SH 300081.SZ 002148.SZ 300264.SZ 300736.SZ 000034.SZ 000829.SZ 002416.SZ 300288.SZ 002261.SZ 603236.SH 300638.SZ 000851.SZ 002104.SZ 002017.SZ 300183.SZ 300205.SZ 002161.SZ 603421.SH 688609.SH 002296.SZ 300590.SZ 688159.SH 2023 09 05 P.32 300050.SZ 002313.SZ*ST 002813.SZ 300689.SZ 603679.SH 002402.SZ 002139.SZ 300531.SZ 300098.SZ 300366.SZ 688288.SH 688100.SH 002881.SZ 002908.SZ 300627.SZ 002383.SZ 002151.SZ 300053.SZ 300177.SZ 300101.SZ 002123.SZ 002929.SZ 301380.SZ 002544.SZ 603220.SH 300025.SZ 002093.SZ 603322.SH 300310.SZ 300560.SZ 002231.SZ 300597.SZ 603602.SH 301139.SZ 000889.SZ ST 603559.SH ST 300299.SZ 002115.SZ 000063.SZ 600498.SH 002396.SZ 603118.SH 600130.SH 2023 09 05 P.33 688418.SH 300414.SZ 688080.SH 301191.SZ 300731.SZ 688618.SH 300698.SZ 300921.SZ 600355.SH 600405.SH 300593.SZ 002309.SZ ST 002364.SZ 300735.SZ 603496.SH 300136.SZ 300292.SZ 002194.SZ 002547.SZ 300134.SZ 002897.SZ 002792.SZ 300322.SZ 300615.SZ 300563.SZ 301419.SZ 300252.SZ 002446.SZ 688027.SH 002583.SZ 600776.SH 300353.SZ 688311.SH 600775.SH 300213.SZ 300603.SZ 300711.SZ 603712.SH 002465.SZ 000561.SZ 600764.SH 002316.SZ 300762.SZ 2023 09 05 P.34 601698.SH 600522.SH 600487.SH 600105.SH 000070.SZ 002491.SZ 601869.SH 000836.SZ 600345.SH 300620.SZ 688313.SH 300565.SZ 300504.SZ 603042.SH 603803.SH 000586.SZ 300710.SZ 300959.SZ 300211.SZ 300555.SZ ST 002848.SZ 300250.SZ 688195.SH 688018.SH 300308.SZ 300502.SZ 300394.SZ 002281.SZ 603083.SH 300548.SZ 300570.SZ 688205.SH 000988.SZ 002463.SZ PCB 002916.SZ PCB 600183.SH PCB 603186.SH PCB 688519.SH PCB Wind 2023 09 05 P.35 6.AI AI AI IDC AIGC 2018 6 2023 09 05 P.36,6 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%5%10%-10%+10%10%8 7 7 100077 868 One56 1 10 200120 021-38124100 1115 330038 0791-86281485 100 24 518033
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