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|2023 08 16 021-S0980523050001 021-S0980519010002 0755-S0980522080001 2023 1 2 a b c 3 2021 CR4 40%2022 4 2022 2023 2022 1 2 3 2ZXBYxOtOtQoPtNnOrMsNqR8ObP6MtRoOtRnOiNmMuMjMrQrO6MoPnNwMtRmNxNpPnR 01 02 03 043 2013-2023E IQVIA IQVIA 2018 400 2022 4 2021 5 2021 62021 82021 11-2022 697 1 88.65%4683 606 87.05%9360 987 89.45%11687 1271 89.12%3+N 16 2022 2 2022 32022 5-12108.57 1 83.48%167 641 344 907 299 1117 2022 12 2023 12023 4-2 73%74%89.46%73.58%79%69.22%78.52%2021 62021 82021 92022 3-52023 55 2 82%3.5 7000 3.2 5000 77.43%80.38%82.87%84.25%2022 72022 82022 92023 2-5121 3 84%4 5600 2.7 1100 5 2021 2022 2023 12 5 8 12 2 9 6 11 2 3 5 6 7 12 3+N 3+N 1 2-3 4 5 1 1 9 2 9 7 7 2 3 Q3-4 2 2024 6 70%90%A 1 80%2 5 3 5 A 1 85%2 3 A 85%B C 1-6 2020 4 14 A 70%B 70%1 1.8 2 50%1 1.5 2 50%1 1.3 2 50%1 2/3 A A 50%1 A B 2/1 A B 2 40%70-100%80-100%50%1 A B 10%2 A B 1 2 40%40%7%30.55-12.70-14.28-3.60 23.20-58%78%7.69 5.42 4.36 7.03 6.18 5.58,12.68,24%,14.28,26%,3.60,7%,23.20,43%52.8%51.5%58.0%77.9%46.5%0%25%50%75%100%8 A-15364 6890 21138 8000 5865 7521 10634 9920 15577 7987 14998 8106 21318 8506 7248-23905 6290 166006628/671510238 8480 13446 6987 16044 8006 10965 8500 10821 6990 6114 5119-6648 6730 38436706/72892981 8306 980 4987 2256 8206 2141 1772 6346 30933 4599 17621 9448 5233 14421 4646 36341 5799 28469 7199 20879 24270 5482 7505 5527B-227719/81192444 7527 678 7530 869 6287-66299/729910372 7900 3313 6850 1292 3987 604 5688-5056 8110 541 3000 108 3799 7 6126 286 5689 140 4160 5 4000 5425 4919 546 1694 6092 1677 6287 449 1631 4219 103 2979 76883 36566 43625 38274 6226 69421 61774 32283 39384 13862 A B A-A 5000 9920 4600 7200 9 14/1 68307 11360 7.76 2 21442 10000 2.14 3 3992 17000 0.68 4 2315 9430 0.22 5 392785 12130 47.64 6 78182 14430 11.28 7 32097 2950 0.95 8 231289 2000 4.63 9 215737 3500 7.55 10 115262 2400 2.77 11 1495 28000 0.42 12 25221 6500 1.64 13 20277 7000 1.42 14 457938 10528 62.5/g 6.58 95.67 8.1%3.2%0.9%61.6%PKP/PVP 12.7%3.2%6.9%3.3%96 14 95.7 5 47.6 11.3 7.8 7.6 6.6 7 2080 10 1-6&11-13 50007-10 5000 ZimVie 1 14.8%4176 8.9%4440 5.8%4379 11.1%4490 11.4%4527 1.2%3.2%2 15.8%4000 11.3%3938 8.0%3696 12.8%3951 12.2%3997 2.4%3 20.7%6800 13.0%6770 8.1%6798 12.3%6800 9.4%8498 1.7%4 3.3%3744 31.3%3716 18.7%3666 13.7%37695 16.9%4852 9.4%4786 6.9%4667 4.9%4852 7.9%4843 0.5%2.7%6 18.3%5744 9.4%5770 7.7%5597 6.9%5730 5.7%5763 0.2%1.1%7 10.4%1171 8.9%1154 5.2%1077 11.5%1180 11.5%1177 0.2%8 9.8%781 4.5%758 5.6%796 3.0%798 1.7%798 2.8%9 8.2%1381 4.2%1398 6.4%1400 2.4%3.8%1398 2.2%10 1.9%958 5.2%95511 48.9%11187 35.7%12 8.2%2489 14.9%2549 4.9%2587 17.7%2588 5.8%2597 17.4%3.8%13 18.8%2800 10.7%2716 13.3%2797 6.1%14 8.5%488 22.5g 6.2%622 25g 4.5%647 26g 1.5%1-6&11-13 15.8%10.0%7.0%6.5%8.4%0 0 7-10 7.4%4.1%5.8%1.8%0.6%0 0 A B A A B A B ZimVie 500 11 70%7.85 47.41 12.74 62.93 10%60-80 90%90.3%91.0%90.8%88.0%0%20%40%60%80%100%11%70%19%6%70%24%12/11.2%688 8.7%343 8.9%558 13.9%15.0%898 9.8%943 5.8%798 12.7%1161.6 18.3%1288 8.1%1495.33 6.1%1269 9.9%1359.6 A B A A B CR4 71.2%56.7%65.2%0%20%40%60%80%100%/A/B A/3+N CR4 30-45%55-70%13/193 948 375 1129 467 1495 3+N 188 948 344 1129 467 1495*1135 1428 959 2366 2510 3597 308 948 384 2866 524 4674 3+N 70%65%14 01 02 03 0415+表：天津市医疗服务情况（医院 整体和 骨科类 医院）2019 6 2022 6 2023 1 2023 2 2023 3 2023 4 2023 5 2023 6 5,745,417 5,075,918 4,083,714 4,881,432 6,129,836 5,549,814 5,963,766 5,561,066 2.30%-7.50%-3.40%18.68%27.66%9.61%21.05%9.56%25,143 25,161 20,442 25,831 32,455 32,169 33,138 29,324-15.76%-18.03%13.72%29.90%37.53%28.27%39.91%16.55%129,064 136,648 129,366 150,853 187,692 180,216 189,523 186,996 2.16%-1.58%14.26%62.41%36.13%32.17%44.03%36.85%165 278 289 405 478 438 519 386 114.29%10.76%85.26%173.65%122.33%53.15%54.01%38.85%2023 2 2023 6 2019 2023 1-6 6 2019 16 2016-2021 3/19.22%2013 15 1.48%5 0.5%3%10%162/35.2/15-20%50%65 32.0%9%15 20.71 30%20%40-49 50-59 60-69 70 30.1%48.7%62.2%62.0%2020 49.5 107.8*13.9%iData Research*01002003004005006002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2016-2021 CAGR 3.07%9.46%23.24%17 IQVIA IQVIA 2021 6 30 90%2020 1-9 17.74 0.65 1-2 18 2012-2016 1.5 6-1.5-3 4-5 6 3 4/6500-8500 4500-5500 4800 11700 5000 50%1 2 3-87%-89%-89%-74%-74%-69%-77%-80%-83%-84%-84%-194,911.7 4,871.3 4,842.6 4,800.5 4,806.0 12,138.7 12,056.0 11,933.0 11,730.0 11,723.0 020004000600080001000012000140002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020-21 2022-25 2020 2025 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 62 68 73 79 92 90 108 127 145 yoy 8.3%8.3%8.2%15.9%-2.0%20.0%18.0%14.1%63 73 87 105 116 102 81 84 96 yoy 15.9%19.2%20.7%10.1%-11.8%-20.2%3.6%13.9%274 282 291 300 309 278 306 324 340 yoy 3.1%3.1%3.1%3.0%-10.0%10.0%6.0%5.0%67 77 92 108 114 68 66 69 72 yoy 14.9%19.5%17.4%5.1%-39.9%-3.9%5.1%5.0%58 70 94 93 131 128 154 185 220 yoy 19.9%35.1%-1.1%40.9%-2.0%20.0%20.0%19.0%59 70 86 81 108 89 100 120 142 yoy 18.6%22.9%-6.0%33.8%-17.9%12.9%19.3%18.4%20 2025E 0-15%-30%-40%-50%CAGR2%119 101 83 72 60 4%131 112 92 79 66 6%145 123 101 87 72 8%159 135 111 95 79 10%174 148 122 104 87 2025E 0-15%-30%-40%-50%CAGR4%128 109 89 77 64 8%154 131 108 93 77 12%185 157 130 111 93 16%221 187 154 132 110 20%261 222 183 157 131 2025E 0-15%-30%-40%-50%CAGR10%164 140 115 99 82 13%188 160 132 113 94 15%205 174 144 123 103 17%224 190 157 134 112 20%254 216 178 152 127 2020 50%2021 CR4 40%CR4 85%32%23%2022 2022 5.2 9%36.8%+46%4.46-4.85%51.2%-12.7pp 5861 173.25%+63.06%10.46+1.1%76.8%-1.4pp 953 3497 2022 4 9.21+44.7%6.55+39.5%2.66+59.2%2022 219%Smith&Nephew 2020 0%20%40%60%80%100%2020 2020 2021 CR4 85%53%21 41%54%70%77%7.9%10.9%5.7%9.8%8.4%14.6%5 73%74%80%65%/0%20%40%60%80%100%41.3%53.7%34934 31482 0%20%40%60%80%100%69.7%77.4%11507 11620 22 OrthoWorld 2019-20 19-20 Globus NuVasive Smith&Nephew 2019-20 19-20 60-70%0%20%40%60%80%100%*&/0%20%40%60%80%100%*NuVasiveGlobus CR4 63%CR4 72%CR4 43%CR3 33%23 23 2022 2022 2022 51%87.6%60%2022 85-88%65-78%2023 2023 2023 50%60%70%80%90%2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 24/3D PRP 3D CF/PEEK INS 1 PRP VTS 3D TCBridge 3D/NMPA 25 Wind-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%20-08 20-11 21-02 21-05 21-08 21-11 22-02 22-05 22-08 22-11 23-02 23-05 23-08 92.5%26 01 02 03 0427 2018-2022:Wind 12.1115.7418.2421.5418.48-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%05101520252018 2019 2020 2021 2022%2022 PEEK 3D 3D 3D:2005 4 2022 341 II III 109 2017-21 3.6 2023 PRP 2020-2025 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 1,824 2,154 1,848 2,184 2,722 3,397yoy 15.9%18.1%-14.2%18.2%24.6%24.8%558 690 544 501 631 813yoy 26.4%23.6%-21.2%-7.9%25.8%28.9%EPS 1.56 1.73 1.36 1.25 1.58 2.03ROE%22.8%15.2%11.2%9.6%11.1%13.0%PE-22.4 28.4 30.9 24.5 19.0:Wind 23/8/1528 2018-2022:Wind 4.988.559.3811.0812.020%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%024681012142018 2019 2020 2021 2022%2022 1.62 54.8%13.51%PEEK PRP 2020-2025 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 938 1,108 1,202 1,507 1,925 2,419yoy 9.6%18.2%8.4%25.4%27.8%25.7%283 322 308 354 446 563yoy 19.7%13.8%-4.5%15.0%26.0%26.2%EPS 0.82 0.84 0.80 0.92 1.16 1.47ROE%26.3%13.1%11.3%11.7%13.2%14.6%PE-25.2 26.4 22.9 18.2 14.4:Wind 23/8/1529 2022 1 2 3 GMP 4 5 2020-2025 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 1,035761 1,052 1,397 1,822 2,379yoy11.7%-26.5%38.2%32.8%30.4%30.6%31493 205 267 351 463yoy17.6%-70.5%121.1%30.5%31.6%31.8%EPS 0.280.08 0.18 0.24 0.32 0.42ROE%15.4%4.6%9.1%10.9%12.8%14.9%PE40.263.6 28.8 22.0 16.7 12.7:Wind 23/8/15 2018-2022:Wind 2003 3D 2022 4 90%30 2022 3D 3D ACT 3D SR II 40mm CT 3D 3D VTS 6.019.2710.357.6110.52-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%0246810122018 2019 2020 2021 2022%2020-2025 Wind 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 1,587 1,994 1,434 1,806 2,359 2,948yoy26.2%25.7%-28.1%25.9%30.6%25.0%606 673 92 318 476 643yoy30.1%11.2%-86.3%244.4%49.7%35.1%EPS 1.51 1.66 0.22 0.77 1.15 1.55ROE%28.8 26.8 3.1 9.7 13.1 15.6PE49.0 30.5 153.9 41.0 27.4 20.2:Wind 23/8/15 2018-2022:Wind 7.7212.5715.8719.9414.3430%63%26%26%-28%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%05101520252018 2019 2020 2021 2022%2022 5.42-51.9%4.72-16.5%1.92+28.1%0.59+173.3%2022 2.57+53.66%:Wind 31495 797 981 1,128 542 154 265 369 565 472 4992 112 1501920%20%40%60%80%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2018-2022:Wind 2.223.543.905.936.4959%59%10%52%9%0%20%40%60%80%100%012345672018 2019 2020 2021 2022%2011 Adena Zina Halis PEEK 2022 6.49+9.4%1.91+2.4%A 2022 40%2019-22 2019 2020 2021 2022 330 366 516 538yoy 61.3%10.8%41.1%4.1%92.4%91.6%91.1%92.2%22 23 29 24yoy 50.8%2.5%26.0%-16.9%85.0%85.7%85.8%65.5%47 74yoy 58.7%88.4%92.2%:Wind 2020-2025 Wind 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 390 593 649 765 971 1,181yoy 10.2%52.0%9.4%17.9%26.9%21.6%119 186 191 215 285 357yoy 21.2%57.2%2.4%12.9%32.2%25.3%EPS 0.58 0.91 0.84 0.87 1.15 1.44ROE%7.7 11.1 10.4 10.7 12.8 14.3PE 67.1 34.0 32.9 25.3 19.1 15.3:Wind 23/8/15 32 2022 1 2 3 EPS PE ROE PEG 2023/8/15 22A 23E 24E 25E 22A 23E 24E 25E 22A 23E688161 38.68 155 1.36 1.25 1.58 2.03 28.4 30.9 24.5 19.0 11.2%1.1 688236 21.12 72 0.80 0.92 1.16 1.47 26.4 23.0 18.2 14.4 11.3%0.9 1789.HK 5.66 63 0.18 0.24 0.31 0.42 28.8 22.0 16.7 12.7 9.1%0.7 002901 31.41 130 0.22 0.77 1.15 1.55 142.8 40.9 27.3 20.2 3.1%1.0 688085 21.94 68 0.84 0.87 1.15 1.44 26.1 25.3 19.1 15.3 10.4%0.9 Wind Wind PEG 23-25 33 CeramTec GmbH CeramTecGmbH 34 6 20%6 10%-20%6 10%6 10%6 10%6 10%6 10%125 36 518046 0755-82130833 1199 1 12 200135 6 9 100032
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