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2009 1210 2023 06 16-SW 02057.HK 19 289 215.6 1 2 3 1 2016 2022 22.1%2 2008 2020 3-2022 288/1.8/1.7/3.3 2014 0.90 2022 0.51 43%14-18 15-20%21-22 2014 0.37 2022 0.32 13.5%14-21 10-20%4 2021 1.3 1.1 0.92 1 2 CR3 3 2023 2022 8 4 1 2023-2025 0.30 0.31 0.32 90 108.8 127.9 PE 18 15 13 2 0.2 0.3 0.4 2029 2031 35%29/31 224/255 2024 2476/2576 3 23-25 20%2024 20 PE 2175 2393 289 34%ReportFinancialIndex 021-20572539 S0360516090002 S0360522100002 S0360522070003 玥 010-63214633()82777()62167()1750()1314(%)33.08()64.95 12/236.4/121.4HKD(12)-SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 2 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E()35,377 43,155 50,191 57,538(%)16.3%22.0%16.3%14.6%()6,809 9,011 10,875 12,788(%)43.2%32.3%20.7%17.6%()8.23 10.89 13.14 15.45()23.9 18.1 15.0 12.7()3.0 2.5 2.1 1.8 2023 6 16 -SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 1 2 3 1 2 CR3 3 2023 2022 8 1 2023-2025 0.30 0.31 0.32 90 108.8 127.9 PE 18 15 13 2 0.2 0.3 0.4 2029 2031 35%29/31 224/255 2024 2598/2763 3 23-25 20%2024 20 PE 2175 2393 34%-SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 4.9 Vs.9 1.9 2.11 3.13.15 1.15 2.15 3.16.17 1.17 2.17.19“”.20 1.20 2.20 3.21.21 1.22 2.23.25 1.25 2.26.27.27 1.27 2.27.39 1.40 2.42.44 1.44 2.47 -SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 5.48 -SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 6 1.9 2.10 3 2022.10 4 2022.10 5.11 6.12 7.12 8.12 9 2022.12 10.13 11 ROE%.13 12%.13 13.14 14.14 15 2022.14 16.16 17.16 18.17 19.18 20.18 21.18 22.18 23.19 24.20 25.21 26.22 27.22 28.22 29.23 30.23 31.23 32.24 33.24 -SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 7 34.24 35.24 36.25 37.25 38 2020 10.25 39.26 40.26 41 20.27 42.28 43.28 44.29 45.29 46.29 47.29 48 2022.30 49 CR 3.30 50.30 51 1985.30 52 1994.30 53 2014-2018.30 54.31 55.32 56.32 57.32 58.33 59.33 60.34 61“”.34 62“”.35 63“”.35 64“”.36 65.36 66“”.36 67.37 68.37 -SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 8 69.38 70.38 71.38 72+.39 73.39 74.40 75 2021.40 76.41 77.41 78.41 79.42 80.43 81.44 82.45 83 FedEx Express%.46 84 FedEx Express.46 85 PE-TTM.47 86.47 87.48 -SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 9 Vs EMS UPS FedEx 1 1 1 -SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 10 2 2 2022 29000 3 2022 4 2022 Wind -SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 11 2 5 -SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 12 6 7 8 9 2022 2016 2018 2020 50%ROE 18 -SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 13 10 11 ROE%12%3 1 2015 2007-2022 12 1106/15 35%2011-2016 50%2007 28.5 2022 9.6 67%-SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 14 2011 66%2022 76%13 14 2 15 2022 -SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 15 1 2020 CR3 50%CR3 55%CR3 70%1980-1995 1995-2010&KA 1997 2010-2012 2 -SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 16 16 17 3 KA -SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 17 1 2002 1993 1999 2000 2021 223 200 2022 22.1%2016 18 2 2022 98 87 11 11000 9700 15 17 -SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 18 3750/31000 5900 2022 31000 94%99%5%19 20 21 22 2023 2022 -SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 19 23 B-C2C 11.6%13.0%14.3%14.4%15.5%16.8%19.1%20.4%20.6%22.1%23.4%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%2013 年 2014 年 2015年 2016年 2017 年 2018年 2019年 2020 年 2021年 2022 年 2023Q1中通 韵达 圆通 申通 极兔/百世-SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 20 24 1 2003 2008 A B C D 2 2014 8 2015 16 -SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 21 25 2023 23Q1 25.9%3 2020 2014 2/9/2/3 2014-2022/2.7/1.7/1.5 2014 2022 288/1.8/1.7/3.3 -SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 22 26 27 Wind Wind 28 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2 7 13 25 38 51 64 73 3 8 12 25 36 46 62 58 2 3 4 9 15 25 32 36 2 1 2 2 14 22 25 29 5 11 16 23 34 56 62 61 1 7 8 10 11 16 18 14 1 1 1 6 6 11 15 11 1 2 5 5 9 8 9 11 6 15 30 39 60 75 125 150 6 8 7 9 11 25 52 59 8 15 21 32 43 53 71 88 2 3 5 5 15 21 21 32 1 2022 5306 4826 11000 2 9700 2016 39%2022Q4 88%-SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 23 29 30 2014 0.90 2022 0.51 0.39 43%2014-18 15-20%2021/0.52/0.50/0.51 2022/0.51/0.51/0.61 20 31 2 2016 75 2022 98 2017 58 2022 458 2015 -SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 24 2014 0.37 2022 0.32 13.5%2014-21 10-20%2022 0.01 32 33 34 35 2013 20+21-22 -SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 25 36 1 2017-21 37 排名 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 1 2 EMS EMS 3 EMS EMS 4 5 38 2020 10 时限指标快递品牌 全程时限 寄出地处理时限 运输时限 寄达地处理时限 投递时限 72 小时准时率 1 1 1 1 1 1 EMS 2 3 2 2 5 2 3 6 3 4 2 3 4 5 4 6 4 4 5 2 5 3 6 5 6 4 6 5 7 6 7 8 7 8 3 7 8 7 8 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 10 -SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 26 2 2022 2021 1.3 1.1 0.92 39 40 -SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 27 1 1 CR 8 84%+2 3 4 41 20 2013-2016 2017-2019 2020E-2023E 1 2 3 4 1 2 18 3 4 1 2 3 4+1pct 18H1 2 1 2014 2022 405 1.4 1.6 2.7 288 2022 54 2022 1.9 2.1 3.9 2022 243.9 1.4 -SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 28 1.4 1.9 42 43=/2019-2022 0.80 0.76 0.89 0.85 1.45 1.39 1.37 1.26 2019-2022 2.65 2.79 3.49 3.33 4.27 3.90 4.02 3.91 2.98 2.52 3.61 4.0 9.12 8.86 9.17 11.27 1.66 1.87 1.78 1.63 5.01 3.83 3.23 2.64 2019-2022 6-8 3-5 3-4 -SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 29 44 45 46 47 2 CR3 20 80 90 1982 UPS Flying Tiger Fedex Fedex Express 1981 26.3 1995 14.6 8.7%3%90 1987 Emery Purolator,1989 CF Emery 1994 Fedex 35%UPS 26%Airborne Express 9%1995 UPS Airborne 2014 98%2022 75.8%CR 3 53.8%-SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 30 25%-30%48 2022 49 CR 3 50 51 1985 Charles W.L.Hill,the University of Washington The Evolution of the Air Express Industry,1973-2002 52 1994 53 2014-2018 Charles W.L.Hill,the University of Washington The Evolution of the Air Express Industry,1973-2002 Supply Chain Dive Amazon Logistics now ships more US parcels than FedEx:Pitney Bowes -SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 31 2 B 4000 8000 25%54 TechWeb 2022 11()()()2 2022 2022 1 8/-SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 32 5/7 22 3 55 2020 2021 4 200 APP 1.1-1.3/2022 7 CEO 3 2022 20 56 57 平台 产品名称 推出时间 收费 服务差异-SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 33 58 59 a 1-2 b 2021 4 349 98 31104 8-18 C -SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 34 60 c 2019 6 61 73211 PDA 2021 2022 24H/48H 2022 10 37 2 23 10-14 EMS -SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 35 62 63 EMS+“/+”-SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 36 64 2022 11 1200+6084 41 40 60%600+900+19300+65 66 3 2023 2023 -SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 37 1 2021 VS 2020 5 6 60%67 68/2017 100 2021 200-300 2021 70.7 10 20+-SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 38 69 2 2017 2023 Q1 9 300 2018 6 1.68 15%2020 1.8 3 70 71 2023 2020 1+1+-SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 39 72+73 -SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 40 74 1 7 2016 2 2021 925 19-21 40%75 2021 -SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 41 76 77 78 1 ZTO FREIGHT HONG KONG LIMITED 2+2023 1 20000 3 5000 70 9600 98%90%2021 12 3 B -SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 42 2 1 2014 10 RCEP15 79 7 -SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 43 80 2017 2018 2020 2021 A+-a/7-9 b c 3 a,3-7 b 85.92%3-4 4-5 5-7 2 2020 7 29 1349 -SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 44+81 10-500KG 1-2 2-5 500KG 1-2 2-5 1 1*-SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 45 GDP 1 2022 2023 2027 30%2031 35%531 822 2 2027 30%2029 35%554 721 82 2-/+FedEx 1995 1996-2008 FedEx Express 1996-2004 FedEx Express 1.0-1.1/6%-SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 46 83 FedEx Express%84 FedEx Express 23Q1 0.3/20-21 H1 0.2/0.4+/1 30%2027 212 165 106 35%+2031 329 255 164 2 30%2027 222 172 111 35%+2029 288 224 144 5 20-30 30 20 PE -SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 47 85 PE-TTM Wind=/1+r n r=+10.1%1 30%35%2024 2467 2598 2714 2858 2 30%35%2024 2576 2763 2833 3040 86 2 2023-2025 23%17%15%23.6%25.1%26.2%1.40 22%16.3%14.6%0.05 0.02 0.01 0.30 0.31 0.32 90 108.8 127.9 PE 18 15 13 份额假设1 市占 率3 0%市占 率3 5%份额假设2 市占 率3 0%市占 率3 5%乐观 4,249 6,573 乐观 4,435 5,768 3,184 3,352 3,502 3,687 3,323 3,565 3,656 3,922 中性 3,293 5,094 中性 3,437 4,470 2,467 2,598 2,714 2,858 2,576 2,763 2,833 3,040 悲观 2,124 3,287 悲观 2,218 2,884 1,592 1,676 1,751 1,844 1,662 1,783 1,828 1,961 对应港股市值（亿港币）对应港股市值（亿港币）-SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 48 87 23-25 20%5 20-30 30 2024 20 PE PEG=1 2175 2393 289 34%1 2 3 -SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 49 Table_ValuationModels2 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 11693 23380 32889 41893 35377 43155 50191 57538 6093 8005 9094 10523 35,377 43,155 50,191 57,538 41 79 88 88 0 0 0 0 6648 6304 5150 5668 28,415 33,097 37,800 42,823 24475 37768 47221 58172 26,338 30,551 34,839 39,428 28813 31056 33344 35731 2,077 2,546 2,961 3,395 3951 3951 3951 3951 6,962 10,057 12,391 14,715 8618 5019 5422 6353-313-386-336-318 5079 5239 5230 5231 6 0 0 0 5443 5743 6091 6429 896 500 500 500 2145 2143 2142 2143 8292 10993 13277 15583 54049 53151 56180 59838 1633 2165 2615 3039 78524 90919 103401 118010-150-183-213-244 2,403 2,872 3,191 3,638 6809 9011 10875 12788 5,394 5,394 5,394 5,394 0 0 0 0 8,608 9,634 11,082 12,634 6809 9011 10875 12788 16,405 17,900 19,667 21,666 6,789 6,839 6,889 6,939 EPS()8.23 10.90 13.15 15.46 857 817 820 836 7,646 7,656 7,709 7,775 24,051 25,556 27,376 29,441 54,029 65,102 75,977 88,765 16.3%22.0%16.3%14.6%444 261 48-196 43.2%32.3%20.7%17.6%54,473 65,363 76,025 88,569 78,524 90,919 103,401 118,010 25.6%29.2%30.6%31.5%19.2%20.9%21.7%22.2%ROE 13.3%15.1%15.4%15.5%ROA 9.6%10.6%11.2%11.6%11479 11021 13257 14775 6809 9011 10875 12788 30.6%28.1%26.5%24.9%2683 3026 2980 2847 1.5 2.1 2.4 2.7 3352 54 450 203 1.5 2.1 2.4 2.7-1365-1069-1048-1063()-16042-2526-6297-6838 8.23 10.90 13.15 15.46-7413-6125-5895-5907 13.87 13.31 16.02 17.85-6211 3599-402-931 65.34 78.73 91.88 107.34 304 0 0 0/()-2722 0 0 0 P/E 23.9 18.1 15.0 12.7 7058 3192 2549 1067 P/B 3.0 2.5 2.1 1.8 8725 50 50 50-1398-2924-3529-4150 0 0 0 0-269 6066 6028 5167 -SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 50 2016 2021 21 2020 21 2019 2018 2017 2020 2020 21 2021 玥 2021 2021 2023 -SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 51 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 -SW 02057.HK 2009 1210 52 A 300 500/6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522
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