资源描述
600809.SH|2017 2020 2022 30 40 30 2016 2021 50%2021 37%2016 2021 68.7%74.9%“1357”2018 50%2023 12%10 100%2022-2024 6.50 8.49 10.56 23 PE 34 25%23 PE 43 360.83 2020 A 2021 A 2022E 2023E 2024E()13,990 19,971 26,041 32,637 39,241(%)17.6%42.8%30.4%25.3%20.2%()4,235 7,029 10,565 13,788 17,162(%)44.6%66.0%50.3%30.5%24.5%()3,079 5,314 7,933 10,353 12,888(%)56.4%72.6%49.3%30.5%24.5%2.52 4.36 6.50 8.49 10.56(%)72.2%74.9%77.7%78.8%79.8%(%)22.0%26.6%30.5%31.7%32.8%(%)35.4%42.5%43.9%42.2%39.6%118.3 68.5 45.9 35.2 28.3 37.2 23.9 17.4 12.9 9.9.2023 02 06 281.35 360.83 52/333/227.31/A 122,007/121,771 A 343,268/2023 02 07 1 1 3 12-5.25-2.14 8.28 2.83-2.53-4.8-0.21 13.28 300-2.72 2.66 8.49-10.45 S0860517090002 021-63325888*6079 S0860519080001 021-63325888*7524 S0860521070003 22 2023-01-20 2022-10-28 2022-08-25 2.5 1.1.5 1.2 22.7.8 2.1.8 2.2.11.14.16.16 3 1 2016-2021.6 2 2016-2021.6 3 2015-2021.6 4 2015-2021.6 5 2015-2021.7 6 2015-2021.7 7 2022.8 8 2022.8 9.8 10.9 11.9 12 2021.9 13.10 14/.10 15.10 16 2016 2021.10 17/.11 18.11 19“1357”.11 20.12 21.12 22.12 23.12 24.13 25.13 26.13 27.13 28.14 29.14 30.14 31 2023.14 32 10.15 33.15 34.15 4 35/.16 36 1573/.16 37.16 1 2017.5 2 2021.7 5 1.1 2017 2 2008 2012 13 14 15 16 2016 2011 2017 2 2017-2019()30%30%20%25%25%25%2017 6 2017 2018 1 2017 2017 10.48 25%66.5 30%(MVA)20%4.93%77 2017-2019 107.60%103.74 16.38 2018 2019 114.7 2020 132.8 2021 150.9 19 21 ROE 22%75 75 90%6 2016 2021 1 2016-2021 2 2016-2021 2017 2018 2021 84/2015 2021 3 2015-2021 4 2015-2021 2018 2021 27/2017 2016 2021 945 2066 CAGR+17%0%10%20%30%40%50%2016-2021 CAGR0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2016-2021 CAGR0204060801001202015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0204060801001201402015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 7 5 2015-2021 6 2015-2021 1.2 22 2021 12 2022 2 2021 2021/12/21“”2021/12/27“2022”2022/1/24“”“”2022 2022 051015202530352015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021/010203040502015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 8 7 2022 Wind 8 2022 Wind 2.1 2020 9 30 30 815 30 2021 7 40 3199 2022 8 108 9 250255260265270275 74757677787980 9 20 10 15 10 2023 2 7 40 3500/2021 20 10%11 12 2021 2022 30 30 20 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%05101520252016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 05101520252021 10 13 Wind 14/2021 66 61 20 2016 2021 50%34%21%37%15 16 2016 2021:2016 2022 2016 2021 10.9/13.9/5%2016 2021 70.1%76.6%68.7%74.9%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%-200%-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%2002503003504003004005006007008009002020/3/15 2021/3/15 2022/3/15 30 20 0102030405060702016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 11 17/18 2.2 1357 2019 1357 1+3+5 7 7 19 1357 0510152016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20%30%40%50%60%70%80%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 12 2015 2021 23 81 23%18 117 37%2022H1 63%20 21 50%2016 1100 2018 2018 2021 5%10%2015 2021 16%6%22 23 2018 2018 2021 17%22%2021 420 1109 2018 2021 20%19%0204060801001201402015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 22H1 0%20%40%60%80%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 22H1 050010001500200002004006008002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021/0246810121416010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,0002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021/13 24 25 2020 2022 50%2022 112 26 27 2012-2015 2016 2016 2017 2018 1+1 2016 945 2021 2066 2021 26.3/2021 966.7 260.9/+13%/37%01002003004005000500100015002000250030002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021/0246810121416020,00040,00060,00080,000100,0002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021/0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2020 2021 2022 0%5%10%15%20%25%0204060801001202019 2020 2021 2022 14 17 21 100 28 29 2023 68 2022 12%2021 30 31 2023 10 100%12 0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.0035.00050010001500200025002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021/0.00200.00400.00600.00800.001000.001200.002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021/05101520 2023 2022 2021 20190%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%15 32 10 Wind 33 Wind 2022 34 1573 12 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%T-82T-77T-72T-67T-62T-57T-52T-47T-42T-37T-32T-27T-22T-17T-12T-7T-2T+323“二十条”推出春节“新十条”推出0501001502000500010000150002022/012022/022022/032022/042022/052022/062022/072022/082022/092022/102022/112022/122023/01:():-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%050010001500200025003000350040004500/2009 年至2012 年2016 年底至2019 年初2020 年至2021 年中 16 35/36 1573/1 2010 2012 36%65%2 2015 2019 20%37%37 1573 16 A+20 2022-2024 6.50 8.49 10.56 23 PE 34 25%23 PE 43 360.83 200022002400260028003000320034002022/1/12022/2/12022/3/12022/4/12022/5/12022/6/12022/7/12022/8/12022/9/12022/10/12022/11/12022/12/12023/1/1 80085090095010002022/1/12022/2/12022/3/12022/4/12022/5/12022/6/12022/7/12022/8/12022/9/12022/10/12022/11/12022/12/12023/1/1 1573-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 17 22 61%18 单位:百 万元 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E:2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 4,607 6,146 17,839 26,424 36,737 13,990 19,971 26,041 32,637 39,241 4,282 4,413 2 2 2 3,896 5,011 5,809 6,934 7,939 117 163 213 266 320 2,503 3,730 4,864 6,096 7,329 6,354 8,189 9,494 11,333 12,974 2,276 3,160 3,596 4,409 5,183 449 6,375 6,524 6,502 6,534 1,106 1,190 1,317 1,651 1,985 15,808 25,286 34,071 44,527 56,568(68)(33)(119)(221)(315)39 76 76 76 76(4)(2)0 0 0 1,761 2,247 2,246 2,201 2,116 0 28 9 12 16 527 247 213 187 163(49)72(25)(0)16 339 363 352 341 330 3 14 6 8 9 1,304 1,736 1,533 1,633 1,582 4,235 7,029 10,565 13,788 17,162 3,971 4,669 4,421 4,437 4,268 6 71 27 34 44 19,779 29,955 38,492 48,964 60,836 4 10 5 6 7 0 0 0 0 0 4,237 7,091 10,586 13,816 17,198 2,311 2,812 3,260 3,892 4,456 1,121 1,701 2,539 3,314 4,125 7,318 11,453 13,693 16,205 18,581 3,116 5,390 8,047 10,502 13,073 9,629 14,265 16,953 20,097 23,037 37 76 114 148 184 0 0 0 0 0 3,079 5,314 7,933 10,353 12,888 0 0 0 0 0 2.52 4.36 6.50 8.49 10.56 84 103 102 102 102 84 103 102 102 102 9,714 14,368 17,055 20,199 23,139 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 288 364 478 626 810 872 1,220 1,220 1,220 1,220 17.6%42.8%30.4%25.3%20.2%104 392 392 392 392 44.6%66.0%50.3%30.5%24.5%8,708 13,499 19,236 26,416 35,163 56.4%72.6%49.3%30.5%24.5%93 111 111 111 111 10,065 15,587 21,437 28,766 37,697 72.2%74.9%77.7%78.8%79.8%19,779 29,955 38,492 48,964 60,836 22.0%26.6%30.5%31.7%32.8%ROE 35.4%42.5%43.9%42.2%39.6%ROIC 34.1%41.4%42.9%41.1%38.5%:2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 3,116 5,390 8,047 10,502 13,073 49.1%48.0%44.3%41.3%38.0%152 163 225 243 259 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%(68)(33)(119)(221)(315)1.64 1.77 2.01 2.22 2.46 49(72)25 0(16)0.98 1.20 1.45 1.65 1.89(1,038)2,718 5,594 1,274 1,211(201)(520)193(114)35 3,454.3 13,601.1 18,031.5 17,720.9 17,393.6 2,010 7,645 13,964 11,685 14,247 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7(322)(372)(180)(160)(140)0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7(42)(36)0 2 0(375)(4,429)(16)12 32 2.52 4.36 6.50 8.49 10.56(740)(4,837)(196)(146)(108)2.31 6.27 11.45 9.58 11.68(4)13 1(1)0 8.01 12.48 17.18 23.06 30.23(128)637 0 0 0(1,237)(833)(2,077)(2,953)(3,826)118.3 68.5 45.9 35.2 28.3(1,369)(183)(2,076)(2,954)(3,826)37.2 23.9 17.4 12.9 9.9(1)(0)-0-0-0 EV/EBITDA 80.7 48.7 32.7 25.2 20.4(101)2,625 11,693 8,585 10,313 EV/EBIT 83.6 49.8 33.4 25.7 20.7 19 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12/15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer
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