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20102030405 ZXCXwPmRtQoPsMnOmRsNqR6McM6MnPmMoMtQkPqQuMfQrQsObRpOrMuOtRsPwMoNzQ3 TOPCon HJT IBC/HBC Wind(2023 8 9)EPS PE2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E601012 30.11 2.45 3.12 3.65 12.29 9.65 8.25 600438 35.04 5.04 4.56 5.09 6.95 7.68 6.88 600732 24.36 1.93 2.47 3.11 12.62 9.86 7.83 688223 12.06 0.53 0.71/22.75 16.99/002865 105.86 11.39 15.13 17.61 9.29 7.00 6.01 002459 30.43 2.73 3.54 4.39 11.15 8.60 6.93 688599 36.92 3.30 4.84 6.22 11.19 7.63 5.94 4/4/CONTENTS01020304 5/5 6IRR LCOE 1.1IRR IRR The internal rate of return of photov oltaic grid-connected systems:A comprehensive sensitivity analysis 7IRR LCOE 1.1 JRC LCOE LCOE WACC LCOE JRC LCOE/8 PERC 1.2 2021 CPIA 2019-2020 CPIA 0123456789美分/kWh024681012葡 萄牙阿 联酋卡 塔尔葡 萄 牙阿 联 酋巴西埃 塞尔比 亚乌 兹 别 克 斯 塔哈 萨克斯 坦印度中国柬 埔寨德国匈 牙 利日本孟 加拉美分/kWh 9 PERC 1.2 PERC 2021 PERC 23.5%24%EL PID LeTID PERC PERC CPIA 天合22.61隆基22.71晶科22.78隆基23.26晶科23.45隆基23.60晶科23.95隆基24.0320.0020.5021.0021.5022.0022.5023.0023.5024.0024.50效率/%20%21%22%23%24%25%26%27%2019 2020 2021E 2023E 2025E 2027E 2029EPERC P 型 多 晶 黑 硅 电 池 PERC P 型铸锭黑 硅电池PERC P 型单晶电 池 N-PERT/TOPCon 电池异质结电 池 10 PERC 1.2 PERC PERC PERC 2022 PERC 88%PERC CPIA PERC Solarzoom 0.000.200.402018 2019 2020 2021元/W化学试剂 正银背银 背铝TMA 电力0%20%40%60%80%100%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022PERC 市占 比 11 PERC 1.2 PERC TOPCon HJT IBC/HBC NREL 12N 2.1 BSF RERC RERC N TOPCon N CPIA 晶 硅电池单晶N 型HJTIBCHBCPERT TOPConTBCP 型 PERC多晶铸 锭单 晶+PERC常 规多 晶 黑硅 黑硅+PERC380 474 490 494 491 491 94 690 886 978 1,079 05001,0001,5002,0002021 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026FP-type Mono N-type Mono xBC154 251 268 125 52 14 1 19 130 341 473 568 02004006008002021 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026FP-type Mono N-type Mono xBC N GW N GW InfoLink InfoLink 13/13 14N 2.1N 2023SNEC TOPCon HJT xBC 1 TOPCon TOPCon PERC 2 HJT HJT HJT 3 xBC xBC InfoLink 15TOPCon+PERC 2.2TOPCon N 28.2%28.7%29.43%25.19%25.25%25.5%N TOPCon TOPCon TOPCon 28.7%Surface passivation of crystalline silicon solar cells:Present and future 16TOPCon+PERC 2.2 PERC PERC PERC P 4 LPCVD PECVD PVD TOPCon PERC 4 TOPCon 17TOPCon+PERC 2.2,55,44,30,24 LP,16 LP,10,10 LP-,55,34,30,29 PE,27,25,19 PE,16,16,13,10,10 PE-,70,10,6 PVD,4%LP,43%PE,53%564GLPCVD PECVD PVD()Uptime 5-8nm/min(intrinsic);1-3nm/min(in-situ doping)10 nm/min(in-situ doping)10 nm/min(in-situ doping)or(120min)or(20-40min)(30min)NA 90%-98%LPCVD 97%()or/PECVD Uptime LAPLACE SEMCO Tempress CT SiO2:PEALD&n-Poly:PECVD TOPCon GW TOPCon InfoLink InfoLink 18TOPCon+PERC 2.2TOPCon 23 TOPCon 93-97%PERC 98%PERC 0.05/W 120mg/(1.8)TOPCon TOPCon PERC TOPCon Technology options for cost efficient industrial manufacturing硅片62%银浆16%折旧4%人工3%水电 辅材和 19 TOPCon GW InfoLink TOPCon HJT xBC TOPCon 23 600GW GW 37 37 57 150 217 18 20 25 46 56 26 47 117 247 370 32%45%59%56%58%0%20%40%60%80%02004006008002022 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 41 1.3 18-16 8.3 9 4-8-8 1-9-9-6-5 14 36 26 34 30 30 15 21 16 20 16 11 2-13 4-10 10 10 10-9-8-6 6 63 14 19.7-0.5-14 16 11 5 25.4%25.3%25.0%25.3%25.3%25.4%25.2%24.8%25.2%25.1%24.4%24.6%24.8%25.0%25.2%25.4%25.6%01020304050607080 2023 InfoLink InfoLink 20时间 采 购 机 构 采 购 规 模 N型占比4/23 大唐 8GW 50%4/17 华能 6GW 50%2/21 中核汇能 6GW 42%2/17 国家电投 5.65GW 32%N 50%N TOPcon 0.08-0.1/w 00.20.40.60.811.21.400.020.040.060.080.10.120.140.161-4-23 2-4-23 3-4-23 4-4-23 5-4-23 6-4-23TOPCon 溢价（左轴）双面单晶182PERC 电池片价格双面182TOPCon 电池片价格 21HJT+2.3HJT P-N 27%26.81%HJT 22HJT+2.32023 HJT 50GW 300GW.4,700 1,200.0 500 500 1400250-13100600057003200200018001700 14001200 11801000850850750 600 600500340250 250 200130025.1%24.7%25.0%25.0%25.4%24.8%24.7%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,000MP MP MP MP MP MP REC MP R&D BYD MP Hevel MP 3Sun R&D MP 2023 2023F HJT MW InfoLink 23HJT+2.3 TCO PERC TCO 1 PECVD 1 2 3 2 TCO TCO PVD RPD RPD PVD HJT HJT 24HJT+2.3 1 N P 7%2 BOM 20mg/w HJT 3 HJT HJT GW 10 GW 3.5-4 HJT HJT BOM HJT/w 47%BOM33%7%2%5%6%25HJT+2.30BB+HJT 0BB 0BB+HJT PERC HJT HJT 0.13/W PERC 0.08/W(50%Ag)1500-2000/kg 0.03-0.04/W(0.02/W,EVA POE)1.2.MW oK,1.2.19-25mg/W 16-20mg/W 0.02/W 1.2.3.1.2.3.15%0.01-0.02/W 1.2.OBB1.2.19-25mg/W 13-16mg/W 0.03-0.04/W:2/UV 0.02/W:1/UV 0.01/W:3/0.02-0.03/W1.SWCT 2.EL 3.InfoLink 26IBC/HBC+2.4IBC HBC HJT IBC IBC Adv ancements in n-Type Base Crystalline Silicon Solar Cells and Their Emergence in the Photov oltaic Industry HBC PVTech 27IBC/HBC+2.4 N ABC M10 72 24.27%24.0%IBC gap HBC IBC HJT ABC TaiyangNews TOP Module List TaiyangNews IBC 化 学 抛 光 去 损 伤 BBr3管式扩 散 干 养 生 长 掩 膜丝网印刷-局部BSF开孔POCl3管式扩散 制绒双面钝化丝网印刷-局 部接触开孔丝网印刷-金 属 化 28IBC/HBC+2.42022 BC 1GW Maxeon HPBC ABC 23 xBC 15GW HPBC HPBC ABC 6.5GW,15GW 3.5GW 23,000 6,500 1,250-10,000 18,500-20,000 1,400 5,000 2,000 25.2%26.2%25.0%24.5%24.0%22.5%23.0%23.5%24.0%24.5%25.0%25.5%26.0%26.5%05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00050,000HPBCLongiABC AikoIBCMaxeonViolet PowerLGEIBCCPIIBCValoeIBCTrinaHBCJinruiHBCPolar BC MW InfoLink 29IBC/HBC+2.4 24%ABC 24%720W 9%+15 30 1%0.35%30 11.6%:-0.29%/N ABC BOS 3+/W 7+/W N ABC ABC 30/30 31 TOPCon HJT IBC/HBC 03 Wind(2023 8 9)EPS PE 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E601012 30.11 2.45 3.12 3.65 12.29 9.65 8.25 600438 35.04 5.04 4.56 5.09 6.95 7.68 6.88 600732 24.36 1.93 2.47 3.11 12.62 9.86 7.83 688223 12.06 0.53 0.71/22.75 16.99/002865 105.86 11.39 15.13 17.61 9.29 7.00 6.01 002459 30.43 2.73 3.54 4.39 11.15 8.60 6.93 688599 36.92 3.30 4.84 6.22 11.19 7.63 5.94 300751 203.56 5.01 7.95 11.56 40.63 25.61 17.61 32/32 3304 05 34 E-mail:03 300/300/300/300/300/300/300/THANKS FORLISTENING
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