资源描述
|2023 09 14 2023H1/1.2/4.0-5.6%/-51.3%-2.94%/-14.13%2023 Q2/55.23%/27.07%+3.06pct/+6.54pct 2021Q3 2023Q2/17.1%/18.2%-0.8pct/-0.2pct 6.6%/5.1%-0.4pct/-0.3pct 2022 H2 2022 CCPI 7 POE 1 2 3 4 5 3M 1+PP 2 3 S0680522080002 S0680518020002 S0680518030008 1 2023-07-17 2 2023-07-10 3 2023 2023-07-06 EPS P E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 600309.SH 5.17 6.07 7.46 9.31 18.18 15.49 12.60 10.10 600378.SH 1.28 1.35 1.48 1.88 26.52 25.15 22.94 18.06 603165.SH 0.60 1.20 1.58 2.40 25.20 12.60 9.57 6.30 600409.SH-0.48 0.38 0.54 0.67 13.80 16.58 11.47 9.38 300037.SZ-2.36 1.78 2.55 3.48 18.43 24.51 17.06 12.52 603505.SH 0.63 2.00 3.30-43.68 13.76 8.34-603255.SH 0.82 1.22 1.85 9.02 50.17 33.72 22.24 4.56 Wind Wind-32%-16%0%16%2022-09 2023-01 2023-05 2023-09 300 2023 09 14 P.2 1.3 1.1.3 1.2.2023 H1.6 1.3.9 2.11 2.1.11 3.15 4.17 4.1.17 5.19 6.19 1.3 2.3 3.4 4.4 5.5 6.6 7%.7 8%.7 9 ROE.7 10.7 11 ROE.8 12.8 13 ROE.9 14.10 15.10 16 2023H1 2022H1/.11 17 CCPI.11 18 2023 9 9.14 19%.15 20%.15 21.16 22.18 23 475.19 WUCXxOmRmPoPsMnOrMrOrQaQ8QbRsQpPnPoNlOmMyRjMnMqNaQnMpPNZrNyRvPqMnQ 2023 09 14 P.3 1.1.1.2023H1 1.22 4.03 Wind 2021 12 31 A 475+2022 1 1 61 5 B 428 2023H1 1.17-9.47%-87.70pct 757.49-51.57%-279.52pct 2023Q2-13.02%2023Q1 16.41pct-54.98%2023Q1 16.38pct 2023Q2 47 2023H1 3.83-2.89%-69.51pct 1344.70-15.13%-328.37pct 2022H1 2023Q2-5.65%2023Q1 11.06pct-19.09%2023Q1 142.2pct 2023Q1 2023Q2 2022Q4 2023H1 15937 14799 1921 30%28%4%853 638 351 31%23%13%1 2 Wind 2023 9 7 Wind 2023 9 7 40%11%19%13%-2%12%46%6%6%14%35%24%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%0500010000150002000025000300002011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023H1 YOY34%11%5%0%-26%-3%25%22%6%-23%33%29%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%01000020000300004000050000600007000080000900002011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023H1 YOY 2023 09 14 P.4 3 4 Wind 2023 9 7 Wind 2023 9 7 2023H1 2023H1 2022H1 3+9.4pct+5.1pct+2.5pct 3 39 4 2023H1+9%+9%+4%+3%-25.5pct-1.7pct 2023Q2 2023Q2 2022Q2+18.4pct+12.9pct+12.8pct 7 39 8 2023Q2 2023Q2 15%3%2023Q2 2022Q2 34%-25%-20%36%33%-38%237%39%-75%279%169%11%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%0500100015002000250030002011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023H1 YOY-2%-14%15%-21%-54%-23%45%63%-4%-35%149%74%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%0500100015002000250030003500400045002011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023H1 YOY 2023 09 14 P.5 5 Wind 2023 9 7 2023H1 2023H1 10 2022H1+193pct+90pct+70pct 3-361pct-343pct-223pct 39 6 2023H1 14%2023Q2 2023Q2 2022Q2 39+31pct+18pct+16pct+12pct+11pct 2023Q2 38%5%2022Q2 2023 09 14 P.6 6 Wind 2023 9 7 1.2.2023 H1 2022 2023 H1 2023Q2 17.12%6.55%-6.3pct-6.9pct-0.8pct-0.4pct 18.2%5.1%-1.4pct-0.8pct-0.2pct-0.3pct 2022H2 2023 09 14 P.7 7%8%Wind 2023 9 7 Wind 2023 9 7 ROE 2023Q2 ROE 1.94%2.43%3.62%0.14%-0.04pct+0.22pct+0.08pct-1.02pct-3.17pct+0.51pct+0.53pct-0.04pct ROE 2022 Q2 2020 ROE 2023 Q2 ROE 2.89%1.60%1.63%0.70%-0.84pct+0.11pct+0.15pct+0.07pct-0.13pct-0.02pct-0.10pct+0.07pct 2015 9 ROE 10 Wind 2023 9 7 Wind 2023 9 7 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%14Q1 15Q1 16Q1 17Q1 18Q1 19Q1 20Q1 21Q1 22Q1 23Q1-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%14Q1 15Q1 16Q1 17Q1 18Q1 19Q1 20Q1 21Q1 22Q1 23Q1-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%10Q1 12Q1 14Q1 16Q1 18Q1 20Q1 22Q1ROE ROE 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%2010Q1 2013Q1 2016Q1 2019Q1 2022Q1 2023 09 14 P.8 11 ROE 12 Wind 2023 9 7 Wind 2023 9 7 2023H1 2023Q2 2023 2023Q2 ROE ROE 2023H1 72%43%37%5%6%8%2023Q2 72%46%35%2023H1 59%27%15%0.6%0.7%1%2023Q2 65%27%14%ROE 2023H1 ROE 15%10%7%ROE 0.1%0.7%0.8%2023Q2 ROE 71%33%25%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%10Q1 12Q1 14Q1 16Q1 18Q1 20Q1 22Q1ROE ROE 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%2010Q1 2013Q1 2016Q1 2019Q1 2022Q1 2023 09 14 P.9 13 ROE Wind 2023 9 7 1.3.2021Q2 2023Q2 2021Q2 9.60%10.51%55.23%27.07%+3.06pct+6.45pct 2023Q2 16.56%12.11%+3.06pct 1.26pct 2022Q3-2023Q2 853 967 819 815 40%35%18%14%13.3%14.7%13.7%13.0%.-.2023H1 同比变化（p c t）2023 年Q2同比变化（p c t）2023H1同比变化（p c t）2023 年Q2同比变化（p c t）2023H1同比变化（p c t）2023 年Q2同比变化（p c t）72%-6.6 72%-7.8 59%24.7 65%56.4 15%-50.5 71%48.9 43%9.3 46%11.6 8%3.5 9%5.7 5%-1.0 6%3.7 37%-9.9 35%-11.9 27%14.9 27%24.4 6%-26.9 33%27.6 31%-1.9 31%-2.0 12%6.2 14%12.0 3%-11.9 16%13.3 27%-8.7 24%-14.1 15%0.4 11%9.0 6%-18.3 25%16.8 26%-6.9 27%-7.2 12%0.5 13%9.4 6%-13.5 20%14.1 25%-2.7 25%-3.4 14%6.9 14%11.3 6%-10.5 17%13.0 25%2.4 27%3.0 4%2.0 6%4.0 3%-0.6 5%2.9 25%-7.1 27%-5.4 10%1.0 12%8.0 6%-10.8 18%12.7 25%-1.0 25%-2.2 10%1.2 9%5.7 7%-1.9 9%4.9 23%-4.0 22%-4.4 7%-3.8 6%4.0 4%-9.1 13%7.2 23%-2.1 20%-3.0 11%1.4 9%7.3 5%-10.1 14%9.1 21%-5.0 22%-5.1 6%2.0 6%5.3 1%-11.2 15%12.7 20%-9.3 19%-10.6 8%-1.3 8%5.7 4%-12.1 17%11.7 20%-10.7 22%-8.2 8%-2.0 9%7.1 4%-13.4 17%12.3 19%6.0 22%7.6 7%5.5 9%6.1 4%1.6 4%3.0 19%-6.8 18%-3.7 11%0.5 11%8.5 5%-12.2 16%11.2 16%-1.8 15%-1.0 10%-3.0 10%5.3 10%-2.1 11%4.4 16%-10.7 17%-7.2 6%-5.5 7%5.1 3%-13.0 17%10.1 16%-5.6 15%-6.2 5%-0.6 4%3.3 2%-8.4 10%7.7 15%-1.1 17%-1.0 2%-0.4 5%3.4 1%-3.5 5%3.7 15%-1.9 14%-0.6 2%-2.9 2%0.3 4%1.0 3%0.1 15%-5.6 16%-4.3 3%-1.4 4%2.9 1%-9.3 11%8.5 15%-8.7 12%-10.7 7%-11.8 5%2.8 6%-8.9 15%4.4 14%-8.3 14%-7.6 6%-7.2 6%4.1 4%-9.6 12%5.8 14%-1.5 13%-1.8 3%-1.7 3%1.2 3%-1.3 5%2.3 12%-1.8 13%-0.7 7%1.3 9%6.4 4%-4.7 10%6.8 12%-1.6 11%-2.4 4%-4.9 3%1.6 5%-1.1 7%1.3 11%-11.0 11%-11.2 4%-8.5 2%1.7 3%-11.2 14%7.4 11%1.5 12%1.7 4%1.2 5%2.1 4%1.5 4%1.8 11%2.4 11%2.7 5%1.4 5%2.9 4%0.4 4%1.9 11%-22.3 12%-20.8 1%-12.5 1%0.5 1%-22.5 22%15.4 11%-1.0 10%-0.7 2%-3.0 2%0.8 2%-2.1 4%1.4 11%-8.5 10%-11.0 1%-5.9 0%-0.5 1%-9.9 12%8.0 10%-5.1 10%-5.6 1%-6.2 0%0.3 0%-5.9 5%2.6 9%-3.3 10%-0.5 1%-7.2 2%0.0 2%-3.7 5%0.9 8%-3.7 8%-4.6 2%-3.4 3%1.4 2%-3.5 7%3.0 6%-1.9 6%-1.6 2%-2.4 1%1.0 1%-4.5 8%5.0 5%-0.9 6%1.4 2%-0.3 2%0.8 2%-0.3 1%0.4板块毛利率 净利率 ROE 2023 09 14 P.10 14 15 Wind 2023 9 7 Wind 2023 9 7 2023H1 47.73%33.44%30.13%27.54%26.23%4.44%7.22%7.33%7.38%8.27%2023H1 2022H1+30.36pct+11.32pct+9.49pct+9.30pct+6.55pct+5.99pct-11.05pct-5.59pct-4.54pct-4.49pct-3.37pct-3.00pct 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%-40%0%40%80%11Q1 12Q4 14Q3 16Q2 18Q1 19Q4 21Q3 23Q2/(0%5%10%15%20%25%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%11Q1 12Q4 14Q3 16Q2 18Q1 19Q4 21Q3 23Q2/(2023 09 14 P.11 16 2023H1 2022H1/Wind 2023 9 7 2.2.1.CCPI 2018 8 2020 2020 4 CCPI 2021 10 2022-2023Q2 CCPI 2023 6 27 CCPI 4217.0 CCPI 4950.0 2023 9 8 4797.37 17 CCPI Wind 2023 9 7 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%22H1 23H1010002000300040005000600070002012-05-09 2014-05-09 2016-05-09 2018-05-09 2020-05-09 2022-05-09(CCPI)(CCPI)2023 09 14 P.12 2023Q2 NYMEX-68.3%NYMEX 4.0%-14.0%-0.7%2022-2023Q2-4.5%-9.8%-49.6%32%PVC-26.7%-7.9%-3.3%14.8%18.5%-5.7%-5.8%MDI MDI MDI 8.9%21.3%TDI-5.4%PX 1.2%PTA-4.7%POY-2.8%-0.9%-1.2%-5.7%66-16.7%1.0%40D 10.8%19.0%4.5%ABS-9.9%PP-7.9%C K3 D3-25.5%-65.4%-9.6%2023 09 14 P.13+9 4 9 9 72 11 14 9 9 21.9%18.4%C2 C3 6.2%14.4%24.5%4.4%18.2%9 9 56.1%46.7%9 9 MDI MDI 6.2%14.4%TDI 8.0%PX 9 9 PX CFR PTA 12.5%7.8%POY PA6 POY 1.1%4.3%4.6%5.7%9.3%5.7%PS ABS 9 9 PP HIPS ABS 5.1%0.5%7.7%6 9 9 16.2%23.2%7.7%33.5%2023 09 14 P.14 18 2023 9 9 板块 名称 单位 价格 周涨幅 月涨幅 季涨幅 年涨幅 当前价格历史分位 近一年走势 86.87 3.9%2.9%21.9%4.0%68.1%89.92 3.5%2.7%18.4%0.9%55.7%2.51-10.2%-15.2%6.7%-68.3%8.0%5810 5.4%20.8%40.7%-4.0%63.3%860 0.0%6.2%6.2%-14.0%38.5%7150-0.7%6.7%14.4%-0.7%26.7%1089.5 3.8%6.9%17.2%-2.1%43.7%8250 2.0%4.7%17.4%6.1%71.7%8585 0.3%-0.5%17.6%4.7%73.6%973.5 7.9%10.0%20.6%9.7%58.5%3630 4.3%16.0%29.6%-4.5%57.1%2530-1.2%4.5%11.5%2.0%75.6%700 7.7%12.9%27.3%-17.6%27.3%2450 25.6%40.0%53.1%16.7%53.9%2660 0.0%18.2%-1.5%-45.5%19.4%3050 1.7%11.9%24.5%10.9%48.7%3575 0.0%2.9%4.4%-9.8%57.1%866 0.0%-8.0%-19.5%-18.6%67.9%2689-1.1%4.2%-11.5%-25.1%9.2%61500-3.9%-6.8%-25.9%-73.8%0.0%2550 4.1%13.3%6.3%-23.9%41.0%26000 2.8%9.2%24.4%-22.4%28.6%29500-4.8%-20.3%20.4%-49.6%15.1%206-9.3%6.7%538.3%-28.7%18.3%240 0.0%4.3%-18.6%-33.3%41.2%908 0.3%6.7%0.4%-26.7%30.9%3710 1.4%8.9%12.7%-7.9%27.1%6300 1.2%3.7%14.5%-3.3%16.8%3200 0.0%48.8%56.1%18.5%78.6%3300 0.0%45.1%46.7%14.8%84.4%8850 5.7%10.6%42.7%-11.7%37.4%6950 4.5%6.5%37.6%35.0%42.6%13150 13.1%15.1%17.4%13.4%81.5%TDI 17600-2.2%-4.9%8.0%-5.4%18.2%17200 0.0%0.6%6.2%8.9%23.0%22200 2.3%-2.4%14.4%21.3%35.6%19500 0.0%0.0%3.7%11.4%38.0%24500 0.0%0.8%5.2%16.7%55.4%11500 0.0%6.5%-6.5%9.5%16.8%PTMEG 20000 0.0%0.0%3.9%9.6%18.4%6600 1.5%8.2%10.0%-5.7%6.7%9700 1.0%3.2%2.1%-5.8%26.3%8700 2.4%0.0%14.5%-19.4%13.2%10200 0.0%0.0%5.2%-0.5%23.0%9750-4.4%-4.4%0.5%-4.9%28.6%1107 1.0%5.6%12.5%6.1%48.6%9100 0.0%0.0%12.3%1.2%60.1%PTA 6070-2.1%4.1%7.8%-4.7%35.1%42000 0.0%0.0%-3.4%-1.2%62.6%13300 0.0%4.3%1.1%-5.7%22.2%31300 1.6%2.6%4.3%1.0%4.9%7579-0.4%2.9%4.6%-0.9%17.4%7875 1.9%2.6%5.7%-2.8%26.1%PA6 14400 2.9%2.1%9.3%4.2%21.9%PA66 20000 5.3%5.3%-3.8%-16.7%0.5%16600 1.2%0.0%5.7%3.8%21.3%HDPE 9600 0.0%-1.5%1.6%8.5%29.2%PP 8200 2.5%3.8%5.1%-7.9%12.0%GPPS 9550 1.6%1.1%0.0%-10.3%39.0%HIPS 10300 2.0%3.8%0.5%-7.2%30.2%ABS 10900 0.5%2.3%7.7%-9.9%18.6%12850 1.2%8.0%8.4%10.8%11.6%840 5.0%27.3%21.7%1.2%21.9%7670 0.0%4.3%16.2%-14.7%16.1%13800 14.0%16.0%23.2%19.0%23.0%21000 5.0%10.5%7.7%-4.5%7.5%13750 15.5%22.8%33.5%7.8%22.8%80 0.0%-5.9%-8.6%-28.9%0.0%19 0.0%-9.5%-9.5%-25.5%0.0%70 0.0%0.0%-4.8%-15.2%19.4%67.5 0.0%-6.9%-12.9%-65.4%13.9%56.5 0.0%-4.2%-4.2%-9.6%1.4%化纤塑料及橡胶维生素及饲料石油化工化肥及农药无机化工聚氨酯国 盛化 工|产品价格每周跟踪 2023.09.01-2023.09.09 2023 09 14 P.15 3.2023 Q2 6.46%2023Q2 2.15 1053 339 1392 6.46%-0.19pct-1.16pct 2023Q2 7574/91/54 150 1.98%+0.07pct-0.69pct 2022Q4 19%20%Wind 2023 9 7 Wind 2023 9 7 2023Q2 311 163 177 145 143 102 206 100 112 89 149 80 108 63 163 54 202 50 30 36 22Q4+131%+33%+29%+15%+12%0%2%4%6%8%10%19Q1 19Q3 20Q1 20Q3 21Q1 21Q3 22Q1 22Q3 23Q1 0%1%1%2%2%3%3%19Q1 19Q3 20Q1 20Q3 21Q1 21Q3 22Q1 22Q3 23Q1 2023 09 14 P.16 21 Wind 23Q2-23Q1 23Q2-23Q1(pct)163-18.7%311-32-7.2%-0.75 145-4.0%177 7 1.6%-0.01 102 29.3%143 45 0.8%3.10 100-17.8%206-6-9.8%-0.87 89-4.0%112-33-15.8%0.32 80 11.9%149 17 6.5%1.29 63 14.6%108 40 5.3%1.17 54 369.3%163 76 28.1%0.30 50 158.3%202 56 17.1%0.40 36 32.6%30 7-2.6%3.54 34-21.7%34-8-19.7%-0.83 29 130.7%25 5-9.2%10.94 28-3.8%44 2-10.5%0.58 28-43.9%54-18-20.8%-0.87 25-14.7%37 0 3.3%-1.22 25-24.0%66-5-13.7%-0.77 23 3.7%16-4-9.3%1.46 23-17.0%15-2-15.9%-0.11 22-33.0%46-25-19.4%-2.42 21-17.1%61 6 1.7%-1.90 2023 09 14 P.17 4.4.1.2022 2023 AI TOPCon 1 2 3 4 5 1 3M 2 PP+POE+VR/AR/MR HBM 2023 09 14 P.18 22 Wind 2023 9 13 2023-2025 Wind 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2023E 2024E 205E 162.3 190.6 234.2 292.3 17%23%25%16 13 10 2963 62.9 58.1 73.8 86.4-8%27%17%12 10 8 710 63.0 64.6 94.7 148.2 3%47%57%16 11 7 1063 30.6 54.0 77.5 90.6 76%44%17%10 7 6 526 33.4 57.6 101.0 152.8 72%75%51%22 13 8 1266 23.2 79.6 116.7 145.3 243%47%25%13 9 7 1054 1.3 18.3 38.5 54.3 1309%110%41%20 10 7 370 5.5 56.8 82.4 104.7 937%45%27%14 9 7 782-10.8 15.4 23.2 29.6-242%51%28%18 12 10 282 1.1 1.6 2.5 12.0 48%52%387%34 23 5 56 1.7 3.3 4.4 6.7 99%32%52%13 10 6 42 5.2 8.5 13.1 16.0 63%54%22%37 24 20 320 4.2 5.4 7.3 8.8 30%35%20%20 15 12 106 1.1 1.8 2.6 3.4 62%43%30%23 16 13 43 3.3 3.9 4.9 5.4 18%26%10%15 12 11 59 0.8 1.0 1.7 2.3 25%61%40%63 39 28 65 0.0 1.7 3.2 5.0 6894%86%57%42 22 14 72 9.3 10.7 13.0 15.4 15%21%19%21 18 15 229 6.1 7.8 12.5 16.6 29%60%33%35 22 17 276 6.6 10.7 12.5 10.6 61%17%-15%6 5 6 62 11.6 12.3 13.5 17.1 5%10%27%25 23 18 310 2.2 25.9 39.6 35.6 1064%53%-10%6 4 5 167 23.8 4.2 6.5 7.8-82%53%21%101 66 55 428 4.9 5.0 8.4 10.9 3%69%29%38 22 17 187 3.0 4.4 7.4 9.8 48%67%33%24 15 11 108 1.8 1.3 3.1-32%143%-36 15-46 9.9 14.6 19.2 13.8 48%31%-28%9 7 9 127 8.0 13.5 17.9 21.6 69%32%21%17 13 11 230 13.3 23.0 27.9 32.4 73%22%16%17 14 12 383 8.7 16.9 21.4 16.0 95%26%-25%16 13 17 268 7.6 11.1 15.5 17.3 46%39%12%8 6 5 90 10.5 32.2 50.8 69.5 206%58%37%11 7 5 353 26.6 27.2 33.8 39.9 2%24%18%10 8 7 260 113.4 93.8 118.5 143.5-17%26%21%5 4 3 468 29.5 7.5 11.0 12.4-74%46%13%16 11 10 119 1.5 2.5 4.3 5.4 64%73%24%19 11 9 48 17.9 17.5 20.3 23.7-2%16%17%16 14 12 275 14.1 13.1 15.5 18.1-7%18%17%15 13 11 197 4.2 4.5 5.5 6.4 8%22%17%11 9 8 50 4.6 6.7 8.6 10.7 46%28%25%9 7 6 61 3.6 6.2 7.7 6.0 72%24%-22%10 8 11 64 5.0 6.7 8.6-32%29%-10 7-64 17.0 21.6 25.4 15.7 27%18%-38%6 5 9 134 38.1 52.5 60.1 17.9 38%14%-70%4 3 12 208 2.0 3.2 4.5 4.4 60%42%-3%13 9 10 42 7.2 8.2 10.3 12.4 14%25%21%19 16 13 160 5.9 7.5 9.9 12.8 28%32%30%19 14 11 140 3.9 6.5 8.2 10.0 67%26%22%18 14 12 115 2.9 3.8 5.0 6.2 32%30%24%16 12 10 60 2.1 2.3 3.1 4.1 13%34%32%34 26 19 80 1.6 1.6 2.3 2.9-1%40%26%72 51 41 117 7.0 8.4 10.9 13.0 20%30%19%21 16 13 174 2.9 7.5 10.1-158%34%-9 6-65当前市值（亿元）公司净利润（亿）净利润增速 P E（倍）2023 09 14 P.19 5.6.2022 1 1 61 5 B 23 475 C-U B B B B B Wind 2023 09 14 P.20“”,“”“”6 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%+5%5%10%-10%+10%10%8 7 7 100077 868 One56 1 10 200120 021-38124100 1115 330038 0791-86281485 100 24 518033
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