资源描述
2009 1210 2023 05 07 000589 7.20 5.72 3000 920 95 38 70%2023 2-2.5%95%2020 2023/2024/2025 102.75/123.75/139.67 6.86/9.93/13.10 PE 9.6x/6.6x/5.0 x 2023 12 PE 7.20 ReportFinancialIndex 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E()8,440 10,275 12,375 13,967(%)15.0%21.7%20.4%12.9%()429 686 993 1,310(%)16.0%60.1%44.7%31.9%()0.37 0.60 0.87 1.14()15.3 9.6 6.6 5.0()1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 2023 5 5 S0360522050001 S0360522100004()114,721.45()111,378.85()66.54()64.60(%)59.65()5.39 12/5.80/3.82(12)-13%9%30%51%22/05 22/07 22/09 22/12 23/02 23/042022-05-052023-05-04 300 000589 2009 1210 920 2020 2023 2-2.5%2023-2025 1 2023-2025 42.43/49.94/57.31 520/540/840 2023-2024 2023-2025 80%/89%/64%416/480/540 2023-2025 2%2023-2025 1020/1040/1061 14.0%/14.5%/15.0%2 2023-2025 45.50/48.55/50.98 358/358/358 2023 38 2023-2025 91%/100%/100%325/340/350 2023-2025 2%2023-2025 1400/1428/1457 22%/23%/24%3 2023-2025 12.24/19.98/25.47 200/200/200 2023 80 2023-2025 50%/80%/100%100/160/200 2023-2025 2%2023-2025 1224/1248/1273 25%/28%/30%4 2023-2025 1.58/4.28/4.92 15/15/15 2023 15 2023-2025 30%/100%/100%4.5/12.0/13.5 2024-2025 2%2023-2025 3500/3570/3641 33%/34%/35%5 2023-2025 1.00 25%2023/2024/2025 102.75/123.75/139.67 6.86/9.93/13.10 000589 2009 1210 3.6.6.9.10.10.12.12.13.17.21.21+.22.24.25.25.25.28.28.28 000589 2009 1210 4 1.6 2.7 3.7 4.8 5.8 6 2022 53.5%.8 7.9 8.9 9.9 10.10 11 2022.10 12.10 13.10 14.11 15 2022.11 16 2022.12 17.13 18 2-3.13 19 3.13 20 3-4 7.13 21.14 22.14 23.14 24.14 25.15 26.15 27 TBR/.16 28.16 29/.17 30 OTR.17 31 OTR.17 32 2023 OTR.18 33 2023 OTR.18 000589 2009 1210 5 34%.19 35%.19 36.19 37.19 38%.19 39.19 40.20 41.20 42.20 43.21 44 BKT.21 45 8.0%.22 46.22 47.22 48 5G.22 49.23 50.23 51“”.23 52.24 53.24 54 2021.25 55.25 56.26 57.28 000589 2009 1210 6 4 1 1958-1978 1958 7.50-16 150 50 1965 700 1966 30 2.4 1977 6,000/18.00-25 2 1978-1996 1982 65 8,000/1986 9-20 B 1992 60 1.4 1993 1994 120/3 1996-2017 1996 1998 75 1.14 51 2005 18.00R25/E3 2007 27.00-49 2010 2014 2017 4 2017-2018 120 2020 90 2021 9 95 2022 38 2022 920 875.2 1 99%000589 2009 1210 7 3000 130 2023 3 2022 8 34 2021 tyrepress 2022 34 30 2 3 2300 444 1-2021 788.6 2022 800 2022 300 000589 2009 1210 8 38 2-120 2022 95 80 15 4 2023 2024 2025 300 2025 1 2017-2019 2017 2018 2 2020 3 2021-2022+2022/+16.0%/+53.5%5 6 2022 53.5%Wind Wind 2021 69.9%0.0200.0400.0600.0800.01000.01200.01400.01600.02020A 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%01000200030004000500060007000800090002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%-600-400-20002004006008001000120014002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 000589 2009 1210 9 29.5%2022 66.6%33.5%20.2%79.8%2021 2022 7/2021&2022 1958 2014 2017 2019 2020 210+90 300 2018 2017-2022/7.9%/7.1%2022-2025 15%2020 2021 97%2022 97%8 9 Wind Wind 0%5%10%15%20%0200400600800100012002017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 销量CAGR=7.1%销量CAGRE=15.7%60.0%65.0%70.0%75.0%80.0%85.0%90.0%95.0%100.0%105.0%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 000589 2009 1210 10 2022 10.89%2021 11.58%2019 5 2 2020+130 10 11 2022 Wind Wind 12 13 Wind Wind 0%5%10%15%20%-2000200400600800100012002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%2%4%6%8%10%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 000589 2009 1210 11 27.76%70%5 14 Wind 2019 2020-2022 2022 11 2022 2489.4 2.17%563 2.82 3 2377.8 2.07%535 15 2022 1 2023 4.70%2 2023 90 75 3 2021 2023 25%75 4 2023 95%75 1 2024 4.80%000589 2009 1210 12 2 2024 98 75 3 2021 2024 35%75 4 2024 95%75 1 2025 4.90%2 2025 105 75 3 2021 2025 45%75 4 2025 95%75 Wind 16 2022 80 80 100%70 70 80 90%60 60 70 70%60 60 0%Wind 2021 1 2021 2022/371.2/35.5 2021-5.2%/-30.3%2019-10.8%/-72.7%1-3 3 3.6 2019 10.8 3 35.1 2021 2 2-3 2/3 75.0/105.0+58.4%/4.0%3 3 3 43.41 11.54+17.4%+50.4%4 2022 52%58%2/3 56.5%/68.2%000589 2009 1210 13 17 18 2-3 Wind Wind 19 3 20 3-4 7 Wind Wind 2009 2018 42.73-61.76/2018 2019 42.31%2019 301 30%2018-2019 0102030405003691215-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0204060801001201401602019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-01:/:()-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%0204060801002019-022019-052019-082019-112020-022020-052020-082020-112021-022021-052021-082021-112022-022022-052022-082022-112023-02:():()15.025.035.045.055.065.075.085.01月 2月 3 月 4 月 5月 6月 7月 8 月 9 月 10月 11月 12月2014-2023 2019 20202021 2022 2023 000589 2009 1210 14 21 22 Wind Wind 2021-2022 10%2022 23 24 Wind 0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000 0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000+-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%0500,0001,000,0001,500,0002,000,0002,500,0003,000,0003,500,0004,000,0004,500,000 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0501001502002503003504004502019 2020 2021 2022Q1-Q3 TBR-)TBR-)-000589 2009 1210 15 25 Wind 26 1700 Tatneft 500/200/600/300/600/230/200 Tatneft 210 2021 Tatneft JSC Cordiant 4 Tatneft 2021 2022 20%2020-2022/16%/41%/27%2600/1370/925/255/50 2019-2022 2020 4000/0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%050,000100,000150,000200,000250,0002011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022+(+000589 2009 1210 16 2022/52.0%39.4%27 TBR/TBR 2022 1674 817 328 897 271 223 316 5895 2021 1433 595 296 936 296 234 228 5072 2020 1245 411 296 726 204 190 195 4089 2019 1219 286 266 695 261 214 343 4113 2022 16.8%37.3%10.8%-4.2%-8.4%-4.7%38.6%16.2%2021 15.1%44.8%0.0%28.9%45.1%23.2%16.9%24.0%2020 2.1%43.7%11.3%4.5%-21.8%-11.2%-43.1%-0.6%2019 35.5%12.9%-11.2%-0.9%37.9%34.2%-65.6%-1.20%2022 28.4%13.9%5.6%15.2%4.6%3.8%5.4%100.0%2021 28.3%11.7%5.8%18.5%5.8%4.6%4.5%100.0%2020 30.4%10.1%7.2%17.8%5.0%4.6%4.8%100.0%2019 29.6%7.0%6.5%16.9%6.3%5.2%8.3%100.0%USTMA+28 120 2022 80 220 160 265 100 165 2022 200 2022 320 180 50 130 2023.3 90 80 120 120 ND Rubber Siam Rubber 000589 2009 1210 17 200 2600 29/TBR TBR TBR/PCR PCR PCR/2022 3980 7660 52.0%10070 25530 39.4%2021 3960 7300 54.2%10645 26220 40.6%2020 3250 5840 55.7%9120 23880 38.2%2019 4040 6330 63.8%12250 26780 45.7%USTMA TechSci Research 2021 OTR 237.7 6.7%2027 352.8 2018 43%2021 60%19.4%2021 13%2023 OTR+3%2023 1%-5%6%-10%30 OTR 31 OTR TechSci Research TechSci Research 0501001502002503003504002021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E OTR(),60.3%,13.0%,11.6%,9.1%,6.1%000589 2009 1210 18 32 2023 OTR 33 2023 OTR 1 2017 2021 2021 17%12 186.1 26.2%30%2023 2 2020 3 8 11 2 1.37 2018 2019 4 2022+7%FMG 5 BP 2021 39.4/7017/9.14 12.2%/17.4%/5.5%BP 2021/10.4%/5.3%/3.6%/5.0%/0.9%/1.2%13.1%/8.2%/16.1%/3.7%/15.7%/7.0%EMIS 2021 GDP 12.9%2900 6 5%40112000 000589 2009 1210 19 2022 18.48+68.7%1-3 4.71+75.5%34%35%Wind Wind 36 37 Wind Wind 38%39 Wind Bloomberg 58.060.062.064.066.068.070.072.074.076.078.02018Q12018Q22018Q32018Q42019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q4:%:%40.045.050.055.060.065.070.075.080.085.02019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-01()-35.0-25.0-15.0-5.05.015.025.035.045.0:(%):():(%)-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%020004000600080001000012000140001600018000200002019-022019-052019-082019-112020-022020-052020-082020-112021-022021-052021-082021-112022-022022-052022-082022-112023-02:-30.0-20.0-10.00.010.020.030.040.0-15.0-10.0-5.00.05.010.015.020.0:():-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,0002004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 FMG 000589 2009 1210 20 40 41 Wind 401170 Wind 401180 2022 76 42 32%18%40 2-2.5%2-3 1 300 38 38 25.5 1.98 15/2021-2022 95%42 38 2023 15 2023 14 2022H2 2023-2024 15 2024 185 2 40 2025 5 4690 2.2 8 2024 180+/390+260 2022/2023 200-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.02017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.02017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1 000589 2009 1210 21 60 20 150/101 1 2022 69.9 25.6%10.4 14.9%12.1%8.6%2 BKT 2021 BKT 87.0 46.9%14.1 22.2%2021 16.2%18.2%43 44 BKT BKT 3000 3 29 180 12 62 106 100%1 0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.02018 2019 2020 2021 2022()()()()()0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.0100.02017 2018 2019 2020 2021()()()000589 2009 1210 22 MES APS 2016-2022 2022 8.0%7.7%2 2018-2022 47.2/25.0/2021 2 5G 5G 45 8.0%46 Wind 2022 Wind 47 48 5G Wind+130 44004500460047004800490050005100520053000200400600800100012001400160018002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022/-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%0.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.0140.02016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022/010203040506070802018 2019 2020 2021 2022/000589 2009 1210 23 130 49 50+51/-1 1885 12R22.5 22.5 530kg 80km/h 50kg 80 295mm-2 2060 12R20 20 450kg 80km/h 84kg 30 335mm 18PR-3 2510 12R20 20 3750kg 100km/h 76kg 25 170mm 18PR A 1690 12R22.5 22.5 2570kg 120km/h 50kg 80 285mm 18PR B-1 1798 12R22.5 22.5 3000kg 120km/h 50kg 70 305mm 18PR B-2 1700 12R22.5 22.5 3250kg 100km/h 40kg 90 245mm 18PR 000589 2009 1210 24 A 1525 12R22.5 22.5 750kg 120km/h 60kg 70 225mm 18PR B-1 1760 12R22.5 22.5 3250kg 120km/h 50kg-295mm 18PR B-2 1980 12R22.5 22.5 3250kg 120km/h 50kg 80 275mm 16PR C-1 2707 12R22.5 22.5 3250kg 130km/h 166kg 80 295mm 18PR C-2 2465 12R22.5 22.5 3250kg 120km/h 160kg 90 285mm 18PR 52 2020 9 120 95 300 38 120 2022 95 1 50 2 3+53 120 14.34 10.15 11.25%2020.9 12 050010001500200025003000 000589 2009 1210 25 95 11.76 12.25 1.78 2021.7 12 300 23.01 29.66 15.42%2021.7 12 38 19.40 25.51 1.98 2023.1 2.5 54 2021 55 Wind B 2021/2020 Wind 2020 2020 1 444 3 2377.8 2.07%535 2023-2025 1 2023-2025 42.43/49.94/57.31 520/540/840 2023-2024 2023-2025 80%/89%/64%416/480/540 2023-2025 2%2023-2025 1020/1040/1061 14.0%/14.5%/15.0%2 2023-2025 45.50/48.55/50.98 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%A 公司 B 公司 C 公司/-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021A-B-C-A-B-C-000589 2009 1210 26 358/358/358 2023 38 2023-2025 91%/100%/100%325/340/350 2023-2025 2%2023-2025 1400/1428/1457 22%/23%/24%3 2023-2025 12.24/19.98/25.47 200/200/200 2023 80 2023-2025 50%/80%/100%100/160/200 2023-2025 2%2023-2025 1224/1248/1273 25%/28%/30%4 2023-2025 1.58/4.28/4.92 15/15/15 2023 15 2023-2025 30%/100%/100%4.5/12.0/13.5 2024-2025 2%2023-2025 3500/3570/3641 33%/34%/35%5 2023-2025 1.00 25%2023/2024/2025 102.75/123.75/139.67 6.86/9.93/13.10 56 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 6716 7231 7742 8793 9849 10828 YOY 5%8%7%14%12%10%/671.8 730.2 800.0 878.0 898.0 1198.0/664.6 698.2 661.8 741.0 820.0 890.0 98%98%84%84%91%74%/1011 1036 1170 1187 1201 1217 23.4%15.6%16.3%18.1%18.7%19.2%/236 161 191 215 224 234 3617 4243 4994 5731 YOY 17%18%15%/490.0 520.0 540.0 840.0/361.7 416.0 480.0 540.0 75%80%89%64%/1000 1020 1040 1061 11.0%14.0%14.5%15.0%/110 143 151 159 4126 4550 4855 5098 YOY 10%7%5%/310.0 358.0 358.0 358.0/300.2 325.0 340.0 350.0 000589 2009 1210 27 98%91%100%100%/1375 1400 1428 1457 21.0%22.0%23.0%24.0%/289 308 328 350 614 1382 2426 3038 YOY 125%76%25%/120.0 215.0 215.0 215.0/51.2 104.5 172.0 213.5 43%49%80%99%/1200 1322 1410 1423 19.5%25.9%29.1%30.8%/234 343 410 438 614 1224 1998 2547 YOY 99%63%28%/120.0 200.0 200.0 200.0/51.2 100.0 160.0 200.0 43%50%80%100%/1200 1224 1248 1273 19.5%25.0%28.0%30.0%/234 306 350 382 158 428 492 YOY 172%15%/15.0 15.0 15.0/4.5 12.0 13.5 30%100%100%/3500 3570 3641 33.0%34.0%35.0%/1155 1214 1274 93 108 83 100 100 100 YOY 8%16%-23%20%0%0%52.7%26.9%33.7%25.0%25.0%25.0%6809 7339 8440 10275 12375 13967/671.8 730.2 920.0 1093.0 1113.0 1413.0/664.6 698.2 713.0 845.5 992.0 1103.5 23.8%15.7%16.7%19.3%20.8%21.8%2022 000589 2009 1210 28 601966.SH 601058.SH 601163.SH 601500.SH 2023 2023 12 PE 7.20 57 Wind wind 2023.05.05 920 2020 2023 2-2.5%2023/2024/2025 102.75/123.75/139.67 6.86/9.93/13.10 PE 9.6x/6.6x/5.0 x 2023 12 PE 7.20 TTM 2023-12-31 2024-12-31 2025-12-31 TTM 2023-12-31 2024-12-31 2025-12-317.23 10.61 15.11 20.02 96.00 20.26 13.13 11.05601966 玲珑轮胎 5.97 12.42 19.78 24.67 53.08 25.52 16.03 12.85601058 赛轮轮胎 13.65 19.58 25.95 29.16 22.39 15.61 11.78 10.48601163 三角轮胎 9.11 8.00 10.05 无预测 12.83 14.61 11.63 无预测601500 通用股份 0.21 2.42 4.67 6.23 295.70 25.32 13.09 9.82可比公司均值净 利 润(亿)P/E代码 简称 000589 2009 1210 29 Table_ValuationModels2 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 3,346 4,995 6,309 7,539 8,440 10,275 12,375 13,967 984 1,214 1,453 1,645 7,029 8,297 9,804 10,923 1,354 1,323 1,631 1,931 40 51 62 70 185 154 210 255 312 360 433 489 1,255 1,209 1,456 1,708 391 476 574 647 18 19 28 29 263 298 371 419 835 1,120 1,291 1,485-48 94 115 76 7,977 10,033 12,378 14,591-38-22-22-22 1 1 1 1-7-7-7-7 26 26 26 26 0 0 0 0 5,352 5,857 6,124 6,372 22 16 17 19 509 509 409 309 22 30 30 30 414 408 409 430 451 716 1,034 1,362 1,482 1,498 1,509 1,521 4 5 5 5 7,784 8,299 8,478 8,659 19 10 10 10 15,762 18,332 20,856 23,250 435 711 1,029 1,357 1,533 1,483 1,433 1,533 4 21 30 40 2,119 2,819 3,399 3,707 432 690 998 1,317 1,446 1,860 2,265 2,458 3 3 5 7 0 0 0 0 429 686 993 1,310 187 227 274 309 NOPLAT 384 781 1,110 1,391 48 48 48 48 EPS()0.37 0.60 0.87 1.14 382 382 382 382 363 936 1,276 1,611 6,077 7,755 9,076 10,048 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 1,402 1,602 1,802 1,902 1,610 1,610 1,610 1,610 15.0%21.7%20.4%12.9%191 191 191 191 EBIT-8.3%107.7%42.1%25.3%3,203 3,403 3,603 3,703 16.0%60.1%44.7%31.9%9,280 11,157 12,679 13,750 6,450 7,137 8,130 9,440 16.7%19.3%20.8%21.8%32 39 48 59 5.1%6.7%8.1%9.4%6,482 7,175 8,177 9,499 ROE 6.6%9.6%12.2%13.9%15,762 18,332 20,856 23,250 ROIC 4.0%7.3%9.4%10.5%58.9%60.9%60.8%59.1%2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 79.0%73.4%66.3%59.1%-111 2,544 1,931 1,780 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 810 1,239 1,608 1,910 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3-302 46-246-252-498-159-597-530 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6-227 1,115 985 502 50 47 43 46 105 303 182 150 75 72 76 78-1,220-965-668-691 57 53 49 52-974-954-663-685()-26 0 0 0 0.37 0.60 0.87 1.14-221-11-5-6-0.10 2.22 1.68 1.55 2,467 71 51 141 5.62 6.22 7.09 8.23 2,524 150 150 200-132-120-150-117 P/E 15.3 9.6 6.6 5.0 5 5 5 5 P/B 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 71 36 46 53 EV/EBITDA 14 9 7 6 000589 2009 1210 30 4 6 2022 2019“”2021“”2 2022 2 2022 2022 2022 2022 2023 000589 2009 1210 31 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572560 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 000589 2009 1210 32(300)6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522
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