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2009 1210 2023 02 14 603057 34.2 30.36 VS 1792 7-8 VS VS 4 20%25 60 34.2 22-24 EPS 0.67/0.98/1.28 PE 45/31/24 23 35 34.2 140 ReportFinancialIndex 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E()3092 3522 4359 5156(%)18.3%13.9%23.8%18.3%()328 278 405 529(%)-8.7%-15.2%45.6%30.7%()0.89 0.67 0.98 1.28()34 45 31 24()9 6 5 4 2023 2 10 S0360520070001 S0360521080003 021-20572598 S0360518040001()41,200.00()4,200.00()119.69()12.20(%)27.09()4.92 12/33.76/21.82(12)-9%13%34%55%22/09 22/10 22/11 22/12 23/01 23/022022-09-262023-02-08 300 603057 2009 1210 1 2 3 22 140&22/23/24 35.2/43.6/51.6 18.8/20.5/21.5 22-24 0.67/0.98/1.28 PE 45/31/24 23 35 34.2 140 603057 2009 1210 3.6 VS.6 7-8.8.10.10 1.10 2.13 3.13.15 1.15 2.18 3.20 4.21.21 1.21 2 VS.22.23.23 3%.24.25.26.26.27.27 25 60 CAGR 20%.27.29.30.31.31.31.33 603057 2009 1210 4 1.6 2.7 3.7 4.7 5.8 6.8 7.8 8.9 9.10 10.10 11.11 12.11 13.11 14.12 15.12 16.13 17.13 18.14 19.14 20.14 21.14 22.15 23.16 24.16 25.16 26.17 27.17 28.18 29.19 30.19 31.19 32.19 33.20 603057 2009 1210 5 34.20 35.20 36.21 37 SAP.21 38.22 39.22 40.22 41.23 42.24 43.24 44.25 45.26 46.28 47.29 48.29 49.29 50.31 51.32 52.33 603057 2009 1210 6 VS VS/30-60 1 10:30-12:00 16:30-18:00 12:00-14:00 18:00-19:30 SKU 603057 2009 1210 7 10%-12%12-18 10+7-8 2 09:00-19:00 10:00-21:00 4:00-19:30 10:00-22:00/50+4+1.1+2+32 30 5-8 6-8 3250 3000 2500 4500 m2 17 15 17 20 6000 10000 6000 10000 1.5 3 2.5 3.5 8250 13500 11250 15750 1500 1500 1500 2000 15750 25000 18750 27750 30%40%55%60%11844 8962 20165 48665 15 8.5 15-20 30 10-14 12+7-10 6-8 1-2 3 4 2022 2023.01.03 2012-2015 05001000150020000500010000150002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 9.2%13.7%10.6%15.4%0%5%10%15%20%05001000150020002018 2019 2020 2021 603057 2009 1210 8 7-8 Frost&Sullivan 21 1792 20 2.82%1%CR3 10 2014 14 6187 11-14 830 6000 19 1000 22 6000 18-21 760 23-25 1000+15 5 Frost&Sullivan 2022 6 7 Frost&Sullivan 2019 2020 2019 926 1085 1251 1419 1574 1744 1792 199722032430268152163776791110651123150416571848206122970%10%20%30%40%0500100015002000250030002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E yoy yoy CR5,4.10%CR3,9.57%0%20%40%60%80%100%CR5 CR3 95.90%2.62%0.48%0.39%0.34%0.27%603057 2009 1210 9 90+%20+8 1161 23.38 1055 54.84 焗 931 31 864 33 809 29.1 782 35.6 673 19.24:516 43.61 363 42.18 342 43.39 270 29.95 269 28.85 265 24.5 245 40.13 227 50.5 211 30.75 208 33.43 82 205 40.2 201 36.48 185 24.14 171 35.5 163 19.25 156 37.5 155 28.36,149 25.98 145 30.88 141 36.42 129 39.16 123 31.4 121 21.73 120 20.69 97 20.8 79 26 603057 2009 1210 10 70 36.08 64 27.77 2022.11 52/44/6000 1.4 21 22 30+9 10 Wind Wind 1 21/26.86/2.42 21 9.3 34+%/8.41/3.76/5.36 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%0.001,000.002,000.003,000.004,000.005,000.006,000.007,000.002018 2019 2020 2021 YoY YoY6%10%14%10%14%15%13%15%25%25%26%22%34%34%33%32%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%2018 2019 2020 2021 603057 2009 1210 11 11 12 84,134.09 27.21%93,314.40 30.18%37,551.57 12.31%53,600.19 17.58%Wind 4.4 4.0 19/21/22 17%43%13 7.92 10.65 17.83 2.88 4.51 2.71 4.03 6.50 1.31 1.77 3.41 4.20 6.29 3.62 5.34 2.40 3.03 5.14 8.72 9.14 Wind/21 79.93%78.93%77.24%10.82%10.92%10.94%8.93%9.49%10.58%0.33%0.67%1.25%01000200030004000500060002019 2020 2021 603057 2009 1210 12 14 2019 4 2019 9 2019 11 2021 9 98.8 110.80/106.30/101.80/93.80 132.80/102.80/82.80 137.80/110.80/92.80 150.8/100.80/92.8 42.98 44.98 47.18 48.3 52.16 54.36 51.9 54.5 57.5 51.9 54.9 51.9 43.9 104 121 133.1 142.1 155.1 56.5 68 78.2 83.2 18/19 2020.1 18/19 2020.5/2020.7 20 2020.8/15 2022.9 2021.1 2022.8 SKU SKU+603057 2009 1210 13 2 21 24.21%23 2 21 34.74%SKU 20%16 17 2019 2020 2021 13.40 12.32-8.03%13.25 7.57%47.00 46.17-1.77%49.89 8.05%28.53 25.65-10.08%29.09 13.38%55.64 49.35-11.31%71.17 44.24%36.19 34.74-4.01%33.14-4.60%44.41 47.00 5.83%50.65 7.77%/3 21 50%19 18 11 5 19 4.3 21 7.3 75.8%9.0%6.0%3.5%3.0%2.7%4.94 603057 2009 1210 14 18 19 19+-21+24 2020 2.1 1.19 910 5 21 21.65 2.05 5.23 4.20 20 21/19.3418.7221.6505101520252019 2020 2021 1.451.812.12.170.900.861.1900.511.522.52018 2019 2020 2021 603057 2009 1210 15 1-10 12 13-14 16-/16 10 21 24 21 77.6%3 10.3 60+%21 2930 57%19-21 3517/3195/2516 1000 90+%50 10 4-5 18 1-3 10%8%5%18-21 40/16/20/36 95 85 21 14.8%22/5057759560 59 61510204060801002018 2019 2020 2021 603057 2009 1210 16 23 24 2021H2 2023.01.03 47.8%/25 2010 2016 2016 2022-38%22%15%9%8%8%62%2553622521233 37.8%603057 2009 1210 17 26 27-0.8/0.1/0.2/1.2/T+2 2021(18 3-5 5580.04 1.80%16.9 0.01%2934.18 0.95%20 19-3017.9 0.98%603057 2009 1210 18 1316.41 0.43%O2O 85-88%-6190.91 2.00%1107.48 0.36%5 469.47 0.15%1522.53 0.49%22155.82 7.17%204 1.8-3.4pcts 28 iFind 2 400 200+4%6%8%10%2018 2019 2020 2021 603057 2009 1210 19 29 30 50%20 31 32 13.70%11.07%36.54%28.65%22.90%20.55%17.44%16.94%6.59%14.24%2.57%7.84%/2489.4 545 0.22 942.3 320 0.34 1364.9 385 0.28 933.6 203 0.22/3212.4 516 0.16 2489.4 495 0.20 2188.6 448 0.20 603057 2009 1210 20 3 33 34 3 30 3-7 35 1 3-7 18-21 0.75/1.03/2.12/2.22 603057 2009 1210 21 3.72%/4.21%/8.11%/7.17%4 SAP-ERP OA TMS WMS 10 SAP-ERP 20 CSC 36 37 SAP 1 603057 2009 1210 22 38+“”2 VS 1996 77.22%79.56%10 39 iFind 40 2020.5-2023.5 603057 2009 1210 23 燊 3 5 5 10698 13383 14000 3 41:2023.01.03 603057 2009 1210 24 3%+2-3 21 57.9 18-21-3.81%13-19-1.44 18-21-6.45%23 18-21 2.82%+3 10%8%18-21 CAGR 61.89%42 43/2018 3-5-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%0102030405060702018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E YoY YoY1315.213736.323065.275580.04-50%0%50%100%150%200%01000200030004000500060002018 2019 2020 2021 603057 2009 1210 25 44 2008 2015 2019-2020 2021 2019 2022 SKU+SKU 1.9 1.1 0.8 9.22 8000 24 650 850 1000-1500 603057 2009 1210 26 45 12-15 SKU 2016 2018 0100020003000400050006000700080009000010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000100,0002018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 603057 2009 1210 27 2022 25 60 CAGR 20%25 60 CAGR3 20%22 800 23/24/25 1000 22 5 23 2-3 22/23/24+2/+3/+2 22-24 30.1/37.2/44.1+11.9%/+23.9%/+18.4%2022-2024 3.2/4.0/4.7+31.3/+24.8/+18.5 603057 2009 1210 28 46 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2002.5 2435.0 2613.0 3092.1 3522.0 4358.5 5155.9 5936.8 6754.5 7494.3 YoY(%)-21.6%7.3%18.3%13.9%23.8%18.3%15.1%13.8%11.0%25.4%25.5%26.1%21.6%18.8%20.5%21.5%22.0%22.4%22.8%1,876 2,249 2,360 2,686 3,006 3,724 4,410 5,089 5,799 6,422 YoY(%)-19.9%4.9%13.8%11.9%23.9%18.4%15.4%14.0%10.7%2,884 3,539 4,387 5,160 5,960 6,960 7,960 8,960 9,960 10,760 YoY(%)-22.7%24.0%17.6%15.5%16.8%14.4%12.6%11.2%8.0%655 848 773 800 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 800 65.04 63.54 53.79 52.05 50.44 53.51 55.40 56.79 58.22 59.69 YoY(%)-2.3%-15.3%-3.2%-3.1%6.1%3.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%43980 49597 50897 57938 63575 76469 88768 100919 113304 123628 YoY(%)-12.8%2.6%13.8%9.7%20.3%16.1%13.7%12.3%9.1%15.25 14.01 11.60 11.23 10.67 10.99 11.15 11.26 11.38 11.49 YoY(%)-8.1%-17.2%-3.2%-5.0%3.0%1.5%1.0%1.0%1.0%4.26 4.53 4.64 4.64 4.73 4.87 4.97 5.04 5.12 5.19 YoY(%)-6.3%2.3%0.0%2.0%3.0%2.0%1.5%1.5%1.5%25.6%25.0%30.1%25.9%23.0%24.9%26.0%26.4%26.7%27.1%47 81 139 242 317 396 469 536 612 700 YoY(%)-72.5%70.7%74.6%31.3%24.8%18.5%14.2%14.2%14.2%1,227 2,357 3,727 9,166 11,458 13,749 15,812 17,709 19,834 22,214 YoY(%)-92.1%58.1%146.0%25.0%20.0%15.0%12.0%12.0%12.0%3.83 3.44 3.72 2.64 2.77 2.88 2.97 3.03 3.09 3.15 YoY(%)-10.2%7.9%-29.0%5.0%4.0%3.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%17.3%18.6%25.1%18.2%17.4%19.0%19.8%19.8%19.8%19.8%48.8 59.5 55.0 72.7 90.8 109.0 125.4 137.9 151.7 163.8 YoY(%)-21.8%-7.6%32.3%25.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%10.0%8.0%3.7%6.3%9.5%7.9%7.0%8.0%8.5%9.0%9.0%9.0%18.5 34.6 42.7 49.2 56.5 67.8 78.0 89.7 98.7 106.6 YoY(%)-87.6%23.3%15.1%15.0%20.0%15.0%15.0%10.0%8.0%12.5 11.1 17.1 42.4 50.9 61.1 73.3 84.3 92.7 102.0 YoY(%)-11.3%54.2%148.7%20.0%20.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%10.0%8.1%36.7%17.7%24.5%20.0%21.0%22.0%23.0%24.0%25.0%Wind 24 10 22 23/24 22/23/24 18.8/20.5/21.5 22-24 3.4%/3.5/3.4 22-24 4.9/5.0/4.7 22-24 7.7/9.1/10.0 603057 2009 1210 29 47 48 Wind 23 22 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23H2 140&22-24 EPS 0.67/0.98/1.28 PE 45/31/24 23 35 34.2 140 49 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2002.5 2435.0 2613.0 3092.1 3522.0 4358.5 5155.9 5936.8 6754.5 7494.3 YoY-21.6%7.3%18.3%13.9%23.8%18.3%15.1%13.8%11.0%25.4%25.5%26.1%21.6%18.8%20.5%21.5%22.0%22.4%22.8%5.9%5.6%2.4%3.2%3.4%3.5%3.4%3.3%3.3%3.3%9.5%5.4%6.2%5.5%4.9%5.0%4.7%4.9%4.8%4.7%123.9 247.3 358.7 327.6 277.8 404.6 528.6 614.4 724.9 826.2 YoY-99.6%45.0%-8.7%-15.2%45.6%30.7%16.2%18.0%14.0%6.2%10.1%13.7%10.3%7.7%9.1%10.0%10.1%10.5%10.8%Wind 16%14%8%6%2%4%50%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%603057 2009 1210 30 603057 2009 1210 31 1 1996 2 2008 3 2014 4 2016 50 5 5 603057 2009 1210 32 51 5 2023.01.03/2489.4 6183 2.48 558 0.22 558 0 9%2489.4 6183 2.48 558 0.22 558 0 9%942.3 2964 3.15 381 0.40 381 0 13%1284.8 3294 2.56 270 0.21 305 35 9%773.3 1657 2.14 208 0.27 208 0 13%748 2643 3.53 131 0.18 161 30 6%671.3 1141 1.70 91 0.14 112 21 10%456.2 1155 2.53 69 0.15 85 16 7%543.5 1355 2.49 60 0.11 74 14 5%457.7 1612 3.52 59 0.13 73 14 5%535 1812 3.39 51 0.10 115 64 6%321.7 1524 4.74 44 0.14 54 10 4%499.9 925 1.85 40 0.08 49 9 5%460.2 1266 2.75 36 0.08 44 8 3%902.8 2487 2.75 16 0.02 194 178 8%8596.7 23835 2.77 1456 0.17 1855 399 8%643.8 1709 2.65 142 0.22 142 0 8%456.1 1001 2.19 38 0.08 38 0 4%643.7 1331 2.07 28 0.04 28 0 2%357.9 836 2.34 21 0.06 21 0 3%442.5 1062 2.40 20 0.05 20 0 2%497.1 1358 2.73 17 0.03 17 0 1%162.1 751 4.63 11 0.07 11 0 1%898 1993 2.22 10 0.01 10 0 1%115.5 43 0.37 5 0.04 5 0 12%180.6 58 0.32 4 0.02 4 0 7%120.2 45 0.37 3 0.02 3 0 7%4517.5 10187 2.26 299 0.07 299 0 3%1316.3 2595 1.97 99 0.08 313 214 12%421.3 951 2.26 8 0.02 24 16 3%226.9 138 0.61 3 0.01 9 6 7%463.1 1229 2.65 3 0.01 9 6 1%328.2 827 2.52 3 0.01 9 6 1%247.8 645 2.60 2 0.01 6 4 1%362.2 848 2.34 1 0.00 3 2 0%3365.8 7233 2.15 119 0.04 373 254 5%603057 2009 1210 33 52 2023.01.03 5%21-22 核心省份江苏省 安徽省 上海市 湖北省 山东省 四川省现有店面 1456 560 558 489 454 392上线城市门店占比 73%44%100%66%67%58%未来空间（保守）1880 560 558 489 1550 871未来空间（乐观）1880 560 558 489 1550 871浙江省 江西省 重庆市 河南省 北京市 天津市 核心省份合计现有店面 347 299 243 204 150 153 5305上线城市门店占比 90%47%100%65%100%100%N/A未来空间（保守）1229 299 764 468 490 326 9484未来空间（乐观）1229 299 764 468 490 326 9484重点拓展省份广东省 陕西省 辽宁省 河北省 合计 其他省份合计现有店面 176 119 83 64 442 394上线城市门店占比 98%83%80%67%N/A N/A未来空间（保守）176 119 83 64 442 772未来空间（乐观）1605 376 493 653 3127 772 603057 2009 1210 34 Table_ValuationModels2 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 244 1,181 1,526 2,007 3,092 3,522 4,359 5,156 0 0 0 0 2,423 2,859 3,464 4,046 65 47 55 71 32 32 40 48 69 60 75 91 98 119 151 173 129 152 187 211 170 172 218 244 0 0 0 0 8 11 13 15 116 101 133 157 0 4 4 4 623 1,541 1,976 2,537-4-4-4-4 35 40 50 59-1-5-5-5 23 31 39 48 0 0 0 0 1,053 994 969 946-1-1-1-1 15 95 145 175 68 40 65 70 97 87 78 71 429 362 532 694 164 170 174 177 6 3 4 5 1,387 1,417 1,455 1,476 6 2 7 7 2,010 2,958 3,431 4,013 429 363 529 692 80 80 80 80 109 92 134 176 0 0 0 0 320 271 395 516 148 187 226 258-8-7-10-13 0 0 0 0 328 278 405 529 54 62 77 91 NOPLAT 320 273 397 519 247 247 247 247 EPS()0.89 0.67 0.98 1.28 7 7 7 7 74 69 93 113 610 652 730 796 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18.3%13.9%23.8%18.3%190 190 190 190 EBIT-11.3%-14.6%45.5%30.5%190 190 190 190-8.7%-15.4%45.9%30.7%800 842 920 986 1,212 2,125 2,529 3,058 21.6%18.8%20.5%21.5%-2-9-18-31 10.3%7.7%9.1%10.0%1,210 2,116 2,511 3,027 ROE 27.1%13.1%16.1%17.5%2,010 2,958 3,431 4,013 ROIC 26.1%14.4%18.1%20.0%39.8%28.5%26.8%24.6%2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 22.9%13.1%11.0%9.1%341 423 439 560 1.0 2.4 2.7 3.2 414 366 486 606 0.8 2.1 2.5 2.9-35-24-35-24-75 32-20-25 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.3-154 39 39 32 5 6 4 4 190 9-32-28 20 21 21 22-148-117-117-97 16 18 18 18-29-103-104-85()-8-8-8-8 0.89 0.67 0.98 1.28-111-6-5-4 0.83 1.03 1.07 1.36-338 631 23 18 2.94 5.16 6.14 7.42-39 0 0 0-284-7-7-8 P/E 34 45 31 24 6 6 6 6 P/B 9 6 5 4-21 632 24 20 EV/EBITDA 38 43 32 25 603057 2009 1210 35 6 2020 2021 2018 2019 4 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 14 2013 2021 2022 2022 603057 2009 1210 36 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82756804 0755-82756803 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572551 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572560 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 0755 82756805 603057 2009 1210 37(300)6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522
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