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2009 1210 2023 05 09 605377 25 19.37 2009 22/70.35%/28.19%7 400 2022 27 1 FMI 2023-2033 CAGR 6.2%&/2020 CR3 70%2&200 2022 16.5%&1 2 55%/32%/Suzano/3&23 2023-2025 5.54/6.55/8.28 PE 12/10/8X 23 15 PE 25 ReportFinancialIndex 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E()3,436 4,002 4,710 5,914(%)16.9%16.5%17.7%25.6%()467 554 655 828(%)4.2%18.6%18.2%26.4%()1.41 1.67 1.97 2.49()14 12 10 8()1.8 1.5 1.3 1.1 2023 5 8 S0360521050002()33,224.14()16,851.27()64.36()32.64(%)32.77()11.18 12/26.61/14.63(12)-10%21%52%82%22/05 22/07 22/09 22/12 23/02 23/052022-05-092023-05-08 300 605377 2009 1210/&23 2023-2025 5.54/6.55/8.28 PE 12/10/8X 23 15 PE 25 605377 2009 1210 3.6.6.7.9.9 1.9 2.10 3.11&.12.14&.14&.16 1.16 2.17&.17.19.21 605377 2009 1210 4 1.6 2/.7 3 2023.8 4.8 5.8 6.9 7 2021.9 8.9 9.10 10 CAGR 6.2%.10 11.10 12 2021.11 13.11 14.11 15.11 16.12 17 2010-2021 GDP 5%.12 18 GDP.12 19.13 20 2020.13 21.13 22 2020.13 23.14 24.14 25&.15 26.16 27 95%.16 28.16 29.17 30.17 31 EBITDA margin Munksj.17 32 22.18 33.18 605377 2009 1210 5 34.18 35.18 36.19 37.20 605377 2009 1210 6 2009 22/70.35%/28.19%7 400 2022 27 1 1 2013-2022 5.07 34.4 CAGR 23.7%2019 2020 2021 2022/21 21/22 101.3%/34.2%2 2013-2022 0.2 4.67 CAGR 41.6%/3 21 605377 2009 1210 7 2/2019 2020 2018 2022 2022 2019 23 3 43.72%2021 6/124 206.3 21/22/23 30%/23.1%/18.8%30%/23.1%/18.8%605377 2009 1210 8 3 2023 4 2021 2022 2023 20.96 25.79 30.63 yoy 30%23.1%18.8%3.38 4.14 4.94 yoy 30%23.1%18.8%5 26.35 12.77%0.09%2.5 1.21%0.01%2.5 1.21%0.01%2.5 1.21%0.01%3.75 1.82%0.01%119 127.45 61.78%0.45%41.26 20.00%0.14%124 206.31 100%0.72%605377 2009 1210 9 2022 30 1 21 95.4%6 7 2021 Wind 8 95.4%0.9%3.7%面层装饰原纸表层纸平衡纸 605377 2009 1210 10 2 2011-2018 53.5 112.2 CAGR 11.2%43.8 105.5 CAGR 13.4%2019-2021/2.4%/2.9%&FMI 2023-2033 CAGR 6.2%9 Wind 2020/20%/40%/40%60%2020 19%VS 10%10 CAGR 6.2%11 FMI 2021 CR3 70%1 0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%美国 中国 印度 英国 德国20%40%40%高端中端低端 605377 2009 1210 11 2 3 12 2021 13 3 Ahlstrom-Munksj 2020 FMI 2023-2033 8.2%2017 9.47 2022 13.56 CAGR 7%14 15 28.0%16.8%21.4%34.8%齐峰新材华旺科技夏王纸业其他0102030405060齐峰新材 夏王纸业 华旺科技 阳光王子2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%05101520252017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022出口金额（亿元）YOY-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%02468101214162017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022出口量（万吨）YOY 605377 2009 1210 12 23 16 Wind&2010-2021 GDP 1351 2257 CAGR 4.8%2016-2022 GDP 10.65 19.55 CAGR 10.7%17 2010-2021 GDP 5%18 GDP Wind Wind&2021 267.0 2023 353.7 2020/11.1%/2.6%/2.5%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%05001,0001,5002,0002,5002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021印度:人均GDP（美元）YOY-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%05101520252016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022印度:GDP:现价:建筑业（万亿 印度卢 比）605377 2009 1210 13 19 20 2020 21 2-3%1 2+2020 18.74%/16.98%21 22 2020 152.1161.2205.4236.5267307.3353.70%5%10%15%20%25%30%0501001502002503003504002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E中国食品 包装特 种纸产 量（万 吨）YOY11.10%2.50%2.60%83.80%五洲特纸仙鹤股份凯恩股份其他0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%05101520252013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021中国医疗 包装原 纸产量（万吨）YOY18.74%16.98%64.28%仙鹤股份恒达新材其他 605377 2009 1210 14&/5000 1999 200 2022 16.5%23 24&85%55%/32%2017-2019 Suzano/67%/88%1 2 2020 2020 3 0%1%1%2%2%3%3%4%4%0102030405060708090100 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A研发费用（百万 元）研发费用 率 605377 2009 1210 15 25&Wind 2020 605377 2009 1210 16&1/94%/97%22 27 15 12 23 9 8 35 40 26 27 95%Wind 20 1 20-21=/Wind 28 12/2020/12 9.77 7 2020 10 12/5 2021 12 18 2021/07 7.01 8 2023 9 18-10 30 2022/07 25 30 0%50%100%150%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021华旺科技 夏王纸业 齐峰新材80%90%100%110%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021华旺科技 夏王纸业 齐峰新材 605377 2009 1210 17 29 30 2 Munksj Munksj Unterkochen Dettingen Tolosa Arches Caieiras 2022 1 5 25 Munksj EBITDA margin Munksj 17 Ahlstrom Ahlstrom-Munksj 22 Munksj Paper 31 EBITDA margin Munksj&1 2022 600/839/39%23 AraucoMAPA UPM 22 12 12 859/710/23/5/5 2 22 23 570 平时时段高峰时段9-1 1 点&1 7-2 2 点低谷时段2 3-次 日 8 点1-1 0 千 伏 0.72 1.28 0.343 5 千 伏 0.69 1.24 0.311 1 0 千 伏 0.67 1.21 0.292 2 0 千 伏 及 以 上 0.66 1.19 0.281-1 0 千 伏 0.65 1.10 0.283 5 千 伏 0.63 1.06 0.271 1 0 千 伏 0.60 1.02 0.262 2 0 千 伏 及 以 上 0.58 0.98 0.25分时电度用电价格（元/千瓦时）地区浙江省安徽省电压等级 605377 2009 1210 18 32 22 33 Wind 34 35 Wind 2022 5 02004006008001,00020/4 20/10 21/4 21/10 22/4 22/10 23/4阔叶浆国 际价格（美元/吨）10,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,00022,000中国:现货价:钛 白粉(金红 石型):国内（元/吨）02004006008001,0002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022产能:钛白粉:中国 产能:钛白粉:全球 605377 2009 1210 19&1 18 8 2 30 25 23-24 25 2 23 24-25 1 22 23 4 23 2 3 2023-2025 5.54/6.55/8.28 PE 12/10/8X 23 15 PE 25 36 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 1611.98 2940.19 3436.40 4001.98 4709.74 5913.86 YoY-2.54%82.40%16.88%16.46%17.69%25.57%24.55%21.86%18.47%19.16%20.22%20.37%1305.58 2157.07 2417.61 2764.42 3247.93 4200.84 YoY-8.14%65.22%12.08%14.35%17.49%29.34%378.43 550.71 487.27 622.90 795.92 1020.92%28.99 25.53 20.15 22.53 24.51 24.30 1305.58 2157.07 2383.25 2674.87 3153.00 3601.98 YoY-8.14%65.22%10.49%12.24%17.88%14.24%138455 202460 227356 268606 308897 345964 YOY-4.73%46.23%12.30%18.14%15.00%12.00%/9430 10654 10482 9958 10207 10411 YOY-3.58%12.99%-1.61%-5.00%2.50%2.00%28.99 25.53 20.35 22.85 24.85 24.85 34.36 89.56 94.93 598.85 YoY 160.64%6.00%530.83%3847 9736 10320 65100 605377 2009 1210 20 YOY 153.05%6.00%530.83%/8931 9199 9199 9199 YOY 3.00%0.00%0.00%6.50 13.00 13.00 21.00 295.79 749.99 968.75 1162.50 1371.75 1604.95 YoY 32.02%153.56%29.17%20.00%18.00%17.00%4.78 11.91 14.01 10.91 9.91 9.91 10.61 33.14 50.04 75.05 90.06 108.08 YoY 22.78%212.26%51.00%50.00%20.00%20.00%30.30 7.98 23.70 22.70 22.70 22.70 37 EPS PE 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 1.0 1.7 2.3 2.8 24.1x 19.7x 15.0 x 12.4x 0.5 1.3 1.9 2.3 33.4x 14.4x 10.3x 8.3x 28.8x 17.1x 12.7x 10.4x 15x Wind EPS PE 23/5/7 605377 2009 1210 21 23 23 605377 2009 1210 22 Table_ValuationModels2 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 1,859 2,297 2,934 3,013 3,436 4,002 4,710 5,914 0 0 0 0 2,802 3,235 3,757 4,709 300 345 405 495 12 16 20 24 6 7 9 10 20 24 28 35 916 1,067 1,241 1,475 48 48 66 82 0 0 0 0 93 96 127 160 1,187 1,352 1,518 1,783-44-22-8-13 4,268 5,068 6,107 6,776-4-4-4-4 0 0 0 0-15-15-15-15 0 0 0 0-4-4-4-4 921 1,138 1,145 1,642 1 1 1 1 203 103 103 203 49 49 49 49 74 79 75 73 533 632 747 944 54 54 55 55 0 0-1-1 1,252 1,374 1,378 1,973 0 0 0 0 5,520 6,442 7,485 8,749 532 632 746 943 235 245 221 197 67 80 94 118 717 937 1,119 1,340 465 552 652 825 766 888 1,110 1,306-2-2-3-3 0 0 0 0 467 554 655 828 22 26 31 38 NOPLAT 427 533 646 813 13 13 13 13 EPS()1.41 1.67 1.97 2.49 2 2 2 2 105 117 141 179 1,860 2,228 2,637 3,075 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16.9%16.5%17.7%25.6%46 46 25 25 EBIT-6.7%24.8%21.1%26.0%46 46 25 25 4.2%18.6%18.2%26.4%1,906 2,274 2,662 3,100 3,608 4,162 4,817 5,645 18.5%19.2%20.2%20.4%6 6 6 4 13.5%13.8%13.8%14.0%3,614 4,168 4,823 5,649 ROE 13.0%13.3%13.6%14.7%5,520 6,442 7,485 8,749 ROIC 14.1%15.2%15.9%17.1%34.5%35.3%35.6%35.4%2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 7.8%7.0%5.1%4.0%539 621 768 797 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 510 622 756 924 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7-306-152-174-234 775-30-46-76 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 193 341 404 417 27 29 29 27-634-160-173-234 89 92 96 92-432-212-113-705 98 110 111 104-208-214-115-706()0 0 0 0 1.41 1.67 1.97 2.49-224 2 2 1 1.62 1.87 2.31 2.40 682 29-18-13 10.86 12.53 14.50 16.99 236 10-24-24-173-4-8-6 P/E 14 12 10 8 821 821 821 821 P/B 2 2 1 1-202-798-807-804 EV/EBITDA 12 10 8 6 605377 2009 1210 23 2021 2022 2022 605377 2009 1210 24 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572560 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 605377 2009 1210 25(300)6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522
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