资源描述
688768.SH|2019 1.80 2021 3.97 CAGR 48.48%2019 0.40 2021 0.81 CAGR 42.79%2019 0.33 2021 0.75 CAGR 49.94%IOT Analytics 2026 32.14 2021 SuperCare 2022-2024 2.11 3.12 4.47 23 PE 23 56 174.72 2020 A 2021 A 2022E 2023E 2024E()264 397 547 784 1,096(%)46.4%50.5%37.8%43.3%39.8%()60 84 115 178 263(%)47.2%40.0%37.3%54.7%48.1%()74 81 116 171 245(%)86.8%9.2%42.6%47.7%43.4%1.36 1.48 2.11 3.12 4.47(%)68.9%61.3%62.0%61.7%61.7%(%)28.2%20.5%21.2%21.8%22.4%(%)23.3%16.4%16.9%20.9%24.2%92.5 84.7 59.4 40.2 28.0 19.3 10.8 9.3 7.7 6.1.2023 02 22 125.4 174.72 52/139.79/52.86/A 5,487/3,255 A 6,880/2023 02 23 1 1 3 12-4.22 1.58 3.21 64-3.81 3.36-5.74 74.21 300-0.41-1.78 8.95-10.21 021-63325888*6106 S0860514050004 021-63325888*3144 S0860521050002 S0860522090004 2.5 1.1.5 1.2.6 1.3.7.9 2.1 PHM.9 2.1.1 9 2.1.2 10 2.2.11 2.3.14.16 3.1.16 3.2.19 3.2.1 19 3.2.2 20 3.3“”.21.22.22.23.23 3 1.5 2.6 3.6 4 2022Q3.7 5 2017-2022H1%.7 6 2017-2022H1.8 7 2017-2022H1.8 8 2017-2021.8 9 2017-2022H1%.9 10 2017-2022H1%.9 11.10 12 2011-2021 MW.11 13 2013-2021.12 14 2013-2021.12 15 2016-2021%.13 16 2016-2021%.13 17 2016-2021%.13 18 2016-2021%.13 19 2020.13 20.14 21.14 22.15 23.15 24 SuperCare.17 25 SuperCare.17 26.19 27.19 28 2018-2022H1.19 29.20 30.21 1.9 2.16 3.18 4 4.23 5.24 5 1.1 2007 1 2007-2012 2008 2010 2 2012-2017 3 2017 1 iEAM 6 2 3 1.2 18.34%7.15%25.49%34%7 4 2022Q3 2022 3 20.00/434 101.315 1.3 2019 1.80 2021 3.97 CAGR 48.48%2021 55.47%2019 0.45 2021 1.29 CAGR 69.7%2021 32.49%5 2017-2022H1%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0500010000150002000025000300003500040000450002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 8 2019 0.40 2021 0.81 CAGR 42.79%2019 0.33 2021 0.75 CAGR 49.94%2019 2021 22.12%28.21%20.46%6 2017-2022H1 7 2017-2022H1 Wind Wind 71.32%68.88%61.27%2022H1 61.42%2019-2021 75.74%76.52%73.58%78.81%74.78%73.91%8 2017-2021 Wind 2021 2021 2021 2017 2021 2022 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%01000200030004000500060007000800090002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%0100020003000400050006000700080002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 50%60%70%80%90%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 9 2019 2021 17.21%15.21%14.78%2022 6 30 205 35.59%2022 6 30 1 60 107 9 2017-2022H1%10 2017-2022H1%Wind Wind 2.1 PHM PHM PHM PHM 2.1.1 PHM 1-20%0%20%40%60%80%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 0%5%10%15%20%25%01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1 10 2013 2025 2025 2015 2016 2025 2018 2019 15 2020+(2021-2023)2021 ERP MES 2021 2.1.2 11 11 PHM 5-20%500 PHM PHM 1 2 3 2.2 2011 1.5MW CWEA 2011 2021 1.5MW 3.1MW 2.7MW 5.6MW 12 2011-2021 MW CWEA 9,475.578,957.898,356.437,929.087,756.107950.967,0007,5008,0008,5009,0009,50010,0002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 202101234562011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 12 2013 2021 19.88%2013-2021 2021 6526 39.89%13 2013-2021 14 2013-2021 1 2022 6 28500 1823 2021 14.45 1.16 30.0%126.8%11.3%2015 4 2 2021 10.33 3%13.37 0.89%2016-2020 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%05000100001500020000250003000035000201320142015201620172018201920202021 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%01000200030004000500060007000201320142015201620172018201920202021 13 15 2016-2021%16 2016-2021%Wind Wind 2020 2021-2023 17 2016-2021%18 2016-2021%Wind Wind 2020 50%14%19 2020-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%0246810122016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%02468101214162016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%0.05.010.015.020.025.030.035.040.045.02016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%20.521.021.522.022.523.023.524.024.52016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 14 PHM IOT Analytics 2021 69 2026 282 CAGR 32.4%2021 5.44 2026 32.14 CAGR 42.7%20 21 IOT Analytics IOT Analytics 2.3 1 2 3 50%24%23%14%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0501001502002503002019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E051015202530352019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 15 22 23 SKF BENTLY 16 2 1993 2007 2021 7 2011 2006 2003 2002 SKF 1907 Bently 3.1 2022 8 SuperCare SaaS 17 24 SuperCare SuperCare 25 SuperCare 18 8 3 1)50g 2)2Hz-20KHz 3)2h 2MB 4)128KB 1)2)3)1)2),1);2)1);2);3);4)1)800 2)1);2)PDCA 1)2)19 2021 26 27 3.2 3.2.1 SuperCare 90000 130 10000 28 2018-2022H1 2019-2021 50.42%47.81%28.60%0501001502002503003504004502018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1()20 2018 8.48%2021 20.69%2018 18.82%2021 26.73%2022 2021 7.7%7.4%2021 1574 62.45%3.96%82.04%62.50%29 Wind 3.2.2-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 21 30 3.3 SuperCare 90000 130 10000 22 2022-2024 1)SuperCare 2022-2024 5.47 7.84 10.96 2)2022-2024 62.0%61.7%61.7%58.2%57.7%57.6%72.6%72.1%72.0%3)2022-2024 22.2%21.0%20.1%2022-2024 7.2%5.9%5.2%2022-2024 15.7%15.2%15.1%2020A 2021A 2022 E 2023 E 2024 E 169.6 220.3 286.3 383.0 506.2 49.1%29.9%30.0%33.8%32.2%66.2%56.2%58.2%57.7%57.6%60.1 129.0 190.6 294.6 433.8 34.1%114.8%47.7%54.6%47.2%76.5%73.6%72.6%72.1%72.0%5.0 7.5 10.2 13.8 18.2 56.3%48.8%36.8%34.5%32.1%69.8%59.6%58.6%58.1%58.0%24.7 25.1 36.0 55.1 81.9 54.7%1.4%43.7%53.0%48.7%74.8%73.9%72.9%72.4%72.3%4.4 15.3 23.9 37.7 56.3 81.0%248.2%56.8%57.4%49.4%35.4%10.4%8.4%6.9%5.9%263.8 397.1 547.1 784.2 1,096.5 46.4%50.5%37.8%43.3%39.8%68.9%61.3%62.0%61.7%61.7%23 2022-2024 2.11 3.12 4.47 2023 56 174.72 4 2023/2/22 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 688777 88.81 1.16 1.60 2.16 2.98 76.28 55.52 41.06 29.77 002410 61.65 0.55 0.81 1.11 1.46 111.12 76.27 55.64 42.34 688188 215.45 3.77 3.77 4.91 6.14 57.16 57.11 43.88 35.09 301162 101.81 0.83 1.07 1.47 2.03 121.97 94.88 69.23 50.24 600588 23.60 0.21 0.07 0.21 0.37 114.51 340.55 111.37 64.50 121.97 340.55 111.37 64.50 57.16 55.52 41.06 29.77 96.21 124.87 64.23 44.39 100.64 76.09 56.25 42.56 2021 55.39%24 5 2022E 2023E 2024E 5%3%1%10.5%17.4%19.7%130.04 205.68 298.45 12.3%20.2%21.6%-15%-10%-5%-10.5%-17.0%-20.3%95.61 131.39 184.67-17.5%-23.2%-24.8%2022E 2023E 2024E 10%7%4%11.6%21.2%27.8%128.35 211.40 325.61 10.8%23.5%32.7%-10%-7%-4%-8.7%-13.8%-16.1%101.20 139.82 194.36-12.6%-18.3%-20.8%22-24-5.0%/-3.0%/-1.0%22-24-1.4%/-1.4%/-1.4%25 单位:百 万元 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E:2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 103 320 321 314 439 264 397 547 784 1,096 196 274 356 510 713 82 154 208 300 419 1 2 3 4 5 4 5 7 10 13 66 54 83 120 168 58 84 122 165 220 37 29 35 48 66 71 92 125 166 222 403 680 797 996 1,391 0(4)(3)0 7 0 0 0 0 0 7 7 8 14 19 50 48 44 148 412 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 33 112 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 10 10 10 10 17 25 34 49 68 16 34 43 58 73 60 84 115 178 263 74 93 130 328 495 25 5 9 9 9 477 773 926 1,324 1,886 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 164 398 85 88 124 187 272 75 83 114 165 231 11 7 11 19 30 43 53 69 92 123 74 81 113 168 242 118 136 184 422 752 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 74 81 113 168 242 0 0 0 0 0 1.36 1.48 2.11 3.12 4.47 1 2 3 3 3 1 2 3 3 3 120 138 187 425 755 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 0 0 0 0 0 41 55 55 55 55 46.4%50.5%37.8%43.3%39.8%135 318 318 318 318 47.2%40.0%37.3%54.7%48.1%181 262 367 527 758 86.8%9.2%42.6%47.7%43.4%(0)(0)0 0 0 357 635 740 899 1,131 68.9%61.3%62.0%61.7%61.7%477 773 926 1,324 1,886 28.2%20.5%21.2%21.8%22.4%ROE 23.3%16.4%16.9%20.9%24.2%ROIC 16.1%14.8%14.8%17.7%18.6%:2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 74 81 116 171 245 25.1%17.9%20.1%32.1%40.0%17 9 10 14 28 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0(4)(3)0 7 3.40 5.00 4.33 2.36 1.85(0)0(0)(0)(0)2.84 4.61 3.88 2.08 1.63(45)(41)(77)(146)(192)(27)(14)(1)4 9 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 19 32 45 44 97 1.7 2.6 3.0 3.0 2.9(66)(10)(37)(203)(185)0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0 0 0 0 0 101(35)0(1)(1)1.36 1.48 2.11 3.12 4.47 35(45)(37)(204)(185)0.46 0.58 0.82 0.80 1.77 0 1 0 0 0 6.51 11.57 13.48 16.39 20.61 6 196 0 0 0(7)(2)(8)153 213 92.5 84.7 59.4 40.2 28.0(1)196(8)153 213 19.3 10.8 9.3 7.7 6.1(0)(0)-0-0-0 EV/EBITDA 86.6 74.5 54.2 34.4 22.2 53 182 0(7)125 EV/EBIT 110.6 82.5 59.2 37.2 24.5 26 Tabl e_Disclai mer 12/15%5%15%-5%+5%-5%5%-5%+5%-5%HeadertTabl e_Discl ai mer HeadertTabl e_Address 318 26 021-63325888 021-63326786 Tabl e_Disclai mer
展开阅读全文