资源描述
2023()2023 01 20()()()S0350521120006 S0350522040003 S 2 300 1M 3M 12M 5.4%-3.2%-13.84%300 6.7%10.0%-9.56%_ _ _ _ N P*2022-08-043 2023/01/19 EPS PE 2021 2022E 2023E 2021 2022E 2023E601012.SH 44.73 1.68 1.94 2.53 37.3 23.1 17.7 002459.SZ 65.59 1.27 1.99 3.02 75.8 33.0 21.7 688599.SH 71.25 0.87 1.70 3.07 85.7 41.9 23.2 688223.SH 15.58 0.14 0.27 0.55 136.5 57.2 28.4 002865.SZ 183.90-1.30 5.29 14.02-145.7 34.8 13.1 600732.SH 37.36-0.06 1.61 2.46-387.5 24.2 15.9 002129.SZ TCL 40.90 1.25 2.27 2.86 32.8 18.0 14.3 600438.SH 40.94 1.82 6.14 4.97 22.5 6.7 8.2 603806.SH 73.10 2.31 1.91 2.62 44.3 38.2 27.9 601865.SH 36.27 0.99 1.15 1.66 33.3 28.8 19.8 603212.SH 32.75 0.42 0.76 1.12 84.8 43.3 29.4 688408.SH 99.99 0.11 0.42 2.36 902.7 239.7 42.3 688560.SH 52.53 0.75 1.10 2.38 46.1 48.0 22.1 300861.SZ 51.35 1.91 2.91 3.61 32.3 17.7 14.2 300118.SZ 33.90-0.05 1.22 1.81-714.4 27.7 18.8 603185.SH 111.46 6.22 8.39 13.66 26.8 13.3 8.2 600481.SH 12.34 0.19 0.64 1.13 74.4 19.2 11.0 688303.SH 49.85 2.97 8.82 7.24 18.6 5.7 6.9 688680.SH 220.28 3.00 4.45 9.23 73.4 49.5 23.9 300393.SZ 17.08-0.29 0.54 0.85-59.4 31.7 20.0 301168.SZ 69.15 0.66 1.16 2.62 104.0 59.7 26.4 301266.SZ 82.53 0.99 1.18 2.35 111.1 69.8 35.1 603688.SH 125.67 0.80 2.50 5.42 161.6 50.3 23.2 Wind wind 4 1 2023 1 2 3 2 3 POE 4 2023 2023 5 5520230161.1 PV infolink CPIA 2022 2021 5 2022 200/kg 2020 60-95/kg 2-3 300/kg 2022 12 2023 170/kg 150/kg 2020 12-18 4-10 6-9 3-6 3-6 2-3 2-3 1/GW 2.5-3.0 1.6-2 1.3 0.7-1 050100150200250300350Feb/18May/18Aug/18Nov/18Feb/19May/19Aug/19Nov/19Feb/20May/20Aug/20Nov/20Feb/21May/21Aug/21Nov/21Feb/22May/22Aug/22Nov/22(/kg 7 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 60.6 77.9 131.5 260 GW 194 274 496 1028 GW 188 268 486 1007 GW 186 265 481 997 GW 155 221 401 831 1 2020 2021 20%2 2022 50%3 2022 9 12 9.7 98.2%10 4 2022 131.5 480GW 400GW 2023 260 100/kg 1.1 CPIA 8 PV infolink 1.1 1 2 3 2020 1.45/W 9 2023 350GW 2022 1TW 5%350GW IRR 1.1 IEA BP 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%05101520252017Q12017Q22017Q32017Q42018Q12018Q22018Q32018Q42019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q3 GW GW 101.2 1 2 3 TOPCon HJT 4 IEA BP 11 n-TOPCon n-HJT p-PERC28.7%28.50%24.50%26.10%26.81%24.06%25+%25.2%23.3+%-0.32%/K-0.24%/K-0.34-0.35%/K 80%+90%+70%+PERC 1-1.5 2 4 1.2 N PERC N TOPCon HJT N P PERC N 1 TOPCon 1 28.7%26.1%25%SE 23.23%2 130um 2 HJT 1 28.5%26.81%25.2%2 HJT HJT 130um 12/%/%2022/MW&/MW 26.4%25%24000 17500 8GW+11GW 16GW 6.5GW 25.5%24.5%25.5%500 43000 8GW 10GW,15GW 24.8%1400 25500 1.3GW+5.5GW 10GW 10GW 25.2%15000 30GW 25%25.1%9500 16000 1GW 8.5GW 16GW 23.6-23.8%10200 200MW 10GW 24.3%10000 10GW 26.1%24.5%7600 12000 2.1GW 1.5GW 4GW+12GW 25.5%24.8%6000 14000 22 5 6GW 22 20GW 25%30000 10GW;10GW 10GW 24.8%4000 12000 4GW+12GW 25.0%8000 34000 8GW+8GW 26GW 5000 5GW 24.1%10000 10GW 24.5%3000 10000 3GW 10GW 8000 8000 8GW+8GW 14000 14GW+10GW 5550 97250 77750 3734501.2 TOPCon 70GW 2023 GW 1/3 24GW GW 10GW 380GW TOPCon 2023 1/3 TOPCon 2022 12 131.2/%/%/MW&/MW 25.26%24.73%2700 27500 2.7GW+7.5GW+10GW 5GW 5GW 25.20%25%1200 4800 1.2GW 4.8GW 25.00%980 21200 820MW+1.2GW+8GW 160MW+2GW+4GW 6GW 12000 3GW+9GW 26.81%200 1200 1.2GW 25.67%24.20%1450 16000/1GW/200MW/250MW;16GW 25.50%25.20%500 19000 500MW 4GW 15GW 24.5%5000 2.5GW+2.5GW 24.20%250 250MW 5000 5GW 500 50000 500MW 20GW 20GW 10GW 20000 18GW+2GW 2920 86100 10700 267800 HJT 10GW 1 HJT GW 2 GW PERC 200GW HJT 2022 12 141.2 BC BC BC Maxeon HPBC 25.3%Hi-MO 6 15GW HPBC 9 29GW N ABC 16GW 6.5GW 2023 BC HPBC ABC 151.2 ABX3 A B X 1 31%2 3 4 5 6 2009 3.8%25.7%1 15%100MW 161.3 2045 2030 2045 2035 2045 2040 2050 2040 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050 2053 2050 2060 2050 2060 Energy&Climate Intelligence Unit CPIA 2022 06 130 88%90%GDP 85%171.3 2021-80%98.1%CPIA IEA 30%181.3/RepowerEU2030 40%45%2100 2025 320 GW 2030 600 GW FF55 420GW 43%2029 2023 1 3 50 1(2025 30GW 2030 80GW 2030 215GW 22GW 2030 80%2035 100%2030 200GW 2030 52GW 22GW 2 2035 14GW 70GW 2050 100GW 2022 2022 PV infolink PV-Tech 2025/30 30/80GW 191.3&2011 2012 18.32%249.96%AD 14.78%15.97%CVD 2014 26.71%-165.04%27.64%-49.79%10%201 2018 2026 30%5%2.5GW 2022 4 14-15%5GW 301 2018 3250 10%25%2022 WRO/UFLPA2021 6 CBP WRO 2021 12 UFLPA 2021 8 2022 3 12 2023 5 2022 2 8 2022 6 24 2022 6 60 2024 7GW 2022 8 10 IRA ITC 2032 26%30%2033 2034 26%22%60 20222024 30%7/W 4/W 12/3/kg 0.25-11/W 1 2011 2018 2 3)2 2022 2002212.1/BNEF 1 80%2021 30%2 4-5/10/22 2020 1 2 3 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 8 18 24 36 8.6 13 28 40 7.8 11.5 11.5 31.5 7.2 7.2 20 30 6 6 9 27.5 2 2 9 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 20 10 6 7.8 6.9 6.7 16.7Wacker 8 8 8 8OCI 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5Hemlock 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.82.1)60/kg)20/kg)/(1080-1100)(550-700)/200 70/t 130 90 Nm/t 350 200:40/kg-60/kg 35/kg 10 7/200 120 2019 9.5/2019 9.8/7/2022 12 10 CPIA 232.2 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 45.0 75.0 105.0 150.0 160.0 30.0 55.0 88.0 140.0 165.0 11.5 20.0 32.5 60.0 70.0 8.4 18.0 30.0 43.0 43.0 5.0 8.0 20.5 20.5 40.5 2.0 5.0 15.0 15.0 30.0 5.0 20.0 30.0 30.0 75.0 15.0 55.0 80.0 7.0 50.0 50.0 3.2 3.2 8.2 21.7 3.7 5.7 7.0 7.0 17.0 7.5 15.0 15.0 2.0 3.0 3.0 10.0 20.0 7.5 10.5 17.8 17.8 59.8 120.1 223.4 381.5 621.5 847.0 2022 12 31 GW 2022 2022 12 1 2 solarzoom CPIA 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.0300 250 200 150 100 80182/kg)242.3 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 11.8 35.0 38.0 60.0 95.0 20.0 30.0 57.0 70.0 102.0 9.3 22.0 36.0 36.0 44.5 10.6 18.0 30.0 39.8 65.0 12.0 18.5 35.0 53.0 65.0 10.6 11.0 23.9 47.0 64.5 9.6 9.6 14.2 20.3 35.0 9.0 9.6 9.6 8.8 8.8 6.5 9.5 15.5 38.0 38.0 6.0 6.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 3.5 4.5 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 8.0 16.5 24.5 5.0 5.0 15.0 23.0 31.0 33.2 47.9 75.0 111.9 196.3 158.6 237.1 382.2 547.8 794.1 2022 12 31(GW 2022 Q1 1 2021 400GW 166 2022 182 2019 2 1 PERC 2 solarzoom 252.4 1 2 C 2022 TOP10 2021 2022 1 1 2 3 2 ENF BloombergNEF 2603273.1项目 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E光伏新增装机容量(GW）145 176 244 359 450 组件端需求量(GW)174 211 293 431 540 双玻组件占比 25.7%24.9%37.5%46.3%49.0%（1）每GW 背板需求量(亿平)0.047 0.047 0.046 0.045 0.044 背板总需求(亿平)6.1 7.4 8.4 10.5 12.2（2）每GW 胶膜需求量(亿平)0.094 0.093 0.092 0.091 0.089 胶膜总需求(亿平)16.3 19.6 27.0 39.2 48.0 胶膜粒子总需求(万吨)73.5 88.4 121.4 176.2 216.0（3）每GW 光伏玻璃需 求量(亿平)0.059 0.058 0.063 0.066 0.066 光伏玻璃总需求(亿平)10.3 12.3 18.6 28.6 35.8 玻璃原片总需求(万吨）906.6 1087.6 1548.9 2303.1 2844.0（4）每GW 光伏焊带需 求量(吨)550 525 500 475 450焊带总需求(万吨）9.6 11.1 14.6 20.5 24.3（5）每GW 光伏边框需 求量(吨)6250 6241 6242 6214 6160边框总需求(万吨）108.8 131.8 182.8 267.7 332.6（6）每GW 光 伏支 架金属用 量(万吨）2.9 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.7 支架总金属用量需求（万 吨）504.7 596.0 783.3 1194.0 1483.7 1 2 1 2 A 283.2 POE POE EVA N POE 1 N 1 TOPCon PERC PID EVA 2 HJT 2 EVA POE 1 10 2 1/10 3 N POE POE POE 2022 30 POE N 50 POE EPE HJT HJT HJT HJT 293.3 BO PVDF BO PET EVA 303.4 MBB 9 TOPCon SMBB 0.25mm 0.2mm SMBB CPIA 313.5 TCO TCO TOPCon HJT PERC 32 1 2023 2023 2 3 N BC 4 5 33 34,300 300 300 300 20%300 10%20%300-10%10%300 10%4 4 435 R3/36 28F 518041 0755-83706353 8 7F 200010 021-60338252 168 25F 100044 010-88576597 xx
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