资源描述
2009 1210 2023 04 23 002603 47 30.84 5 4 2 1500 40%2 1 600 1 2 23+3 800 4-10 23 999 1 2020 10 2021 2 2018 22-24 23/25.8/29.6 16.2/19.1/22.3 1 DCF 23 235 22 PE 2 5 20%23 30 PE 446 3 peak sales 3 PS 105 786 53%47 ReportFinancialIndex 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E()10117 12500 12877 14791(%)15.2%23.6%3.0%14.9%()1344 2300 2577 2958(%)10.3%71.2%12.1%14.8%()0.80 1.38 1.54 1.77()38 22 20 17()6 5 4 4 2023 4 21 S0360520110002 010-66500910 S0360522090003()167,070.54()137,599.03()515.25()424.36(%)33.10()5.98 12/51.76/18.83(12)002603 2022 2022-11-02 002603 2022 2022-09-07 002603 2021 2022 2022-05-02-36%1%38%75%22/04 22/07 22/09 22/11 23/02 23/042022-04-212023-04-21 300 002603 2009 1210 22-24 23/25.8/29.6 16.2/19.1/22.3 1 DCF 23 235 22 PE 2 5 20%23 30 PE 446 3 peak sales 3 PS 105 786 53%47 002603 2009 1210 3.5.5.5.7 2.8.9.9.9.11.12 002603 2009 1210 4 1.6 2.7 3.8 4.10 5 DCF.10 6 PE.11 7 NDA III.11 8.12 9 OTC.12 10.12 11 OTC.12 12.13 13 OTC.13 14.13 15 OTC.13 16.14 17 OTC.14 18.14 19 OTC.14 20 OTC.15 21.15 22 OTC.15 002603 2009 1210 5 5 4 1000 7%2020 3 1 2 2 1500 40%2 1 600 1 2 23+3 002603 2009 1210 6 1 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 14.0 16.8 20.2 22.2 24.4 25.6 YOY-13.6%20.0%20.0%10.0%10.0%5.0%17.0 20.4 24.5 26.9 29.6 31.1 YOY-10.1%20.0%20.0%10.0%10.0%5.0%11.0 13.2 15.8 19.0 22.8 27.4 YOY-3.8%20.0%20.0%20.0%20.0%20.0%42.0 50.4 60.5 68.1 76.8 84.1 YOY-9.7%20.0%20.0%12.6%12.8%9.5%1 23+2022 10-15 3-5 CAGR 10-15%2027 25 1+2+2022 11 5 7 AHA 2022 STEMI ST 30 1 CTS-AMI 2019 5 2020 12 124 3797/STEMI 2 23 2022 10-15 3-5 CAGR 20%2027 25-30 QUEST 2019 126 2022 12 14 HFrEF 002603 2009 1210 7 3 2022 15-20 3-5 CAGR 10-20%2027 30 1 2022 23 3 1 2 800 4-10 23 999 1 2020 10 2 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 66.0 49.5 49.5 52.0 54.6 57.3 YOY 69%-25%0%5%5%5%1.5 6.8 10.1 12.2 14.6 17.5 YOY 130%350%50%20%20%20%67.5 56.3 59.6 64.1 69.2 74.8 YOY 70%-17%6%8%8%8%1 2022 60-70 12 50 50 OTC CR3 30%23 002603 2009 1210 8 2 10 2022 1-2 23 6-8 3-5 CAGR 20+%2027 15-20 2020 3 2 10 2 2021 OTC 3 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 0 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.4 3.1 YOY 100%100%100%30%0 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.4 3.1 YOY 100%100%100%30%0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 YOY 30%30%30%30%30%0.2 0.9 1.6 2.9 5.4 7.1 YOY 303%77%83%88%30%1 2021 10 2 2021 10 3 OTC 002603 2009 1210 9 1 2 22 1-2 2018 3-5 20%2 OTC 22 1-2 3-5 30%OTC OTC 10 480 12 Tilburg 7 2025 5 CAGR 15-20%20-25%002603 2009 1210 10 4 1 22 66 32 73 22 21%32 26%WACC 8.6%2%23 235 21.5 PE 5 DCF FCF 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 66 50 50 52 55 57 60 63 66 70 73 YOY-25%0%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%5%21.0%22.0%22.0%22.5%23.0%23.5%24.0%24.5%25.0%25.5%26.0%13.9 10.9 10.9 11.7 12.6 13.5 14.4 15.5 16.6 17.8 19.0 YOY-21%0%7%7%7%7%7%7%7%7%WACC 8.58%1 10.9 10.0 9.9 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.4 9.3 9.2 9.1 96.9 2%2 138=1+2 235 2 22 9.1 27 30.7 CAGR 27%23 30 PE 23 446 002603 2009 1210 11 6 PE 2023E 2024E 2025E 002603.SZ 233 24 20 18 600557.SH 184 33 27 21 603998.SH 62 37 29 22 002873.SZ 34 23 18 15 29 23 19 wind 23 4 20 3 NDA III peak sales 5-10 3 PS 105 7 NDA III PS 1.1 NDA 15 3 5 6 15 3 5 6 15 3 5 6 30 3 10 1.1 30 3 10 105 3 35 22-24 23/25.8/29.6 16.2/19.1/22.3 1 DCF 23 235 22 PE 2 5 20%23 30 PE 446 3 peak sales 3 PS 105 786 53%47 1 2 002603 2009 1210 12 2017 5.7 2022 11.4 CAGR 15%OTC 2017 2.7 2022 3.3 CAGR 4.3%8 9 OTC 2017 7.4 2022 11.3 CAGR 8.9%OTC 2017 3.7 2022 6.4 CAGR 11.4%10 11 OTC 2017 3.8 2022 8.7 CAGR 18.2%OTC 2017 1.5 2022 3 CAGR 14.9%002603 2009 1210 13 12 13 OTC 2017 2.7 2022 14.4 CAGR 39.4%OTC 2017 7.2 2022 46.9 CAGR 45.4%14 15 OTC 2021 0.2 2022 0.6 OTC 2020 89 2022 0.8 002603 2009 1210 14 16 17 OTC 2017 0.6 2022 2 CAGR 27.8%OTC 2017 0.09 2022 0.3 CAGR 30.2%18 19 OTC OTC 2017 0.3 2022 1 CAGR 24.1%002603 2009 1210 15 20 OTC 2017 326 2022 1.1 CAGR 102.9%OTC 2017 0.2 2022 0.5 CAGR 18%21 22 OTC 002603 2009 1210 16 Table_ValuationModels2 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 995 2361 3641 5676 10117 12500 12877 14791 0 0 0 0 3681 4223 4260 4894 1611 1824 1687 1934 138 171 176 202 225 258 416 399 3434 4118 4178 4784 1673 1919 2125 2342 497 551 529 608 0 0 0 0 792 916 918 1055 1098 1550 1840 1753 17 13 1 4 5602 7912 9709 12104-38-3-3-3 24 24 24 24-29-2-2-2 0 0 0 0 2 7 8 8 3767 3921 4067 4286-24 33 35 39 1950 2288 2691 3173 103 108 119 125 661 679 712 756 1569 2650 2971 3411 901 905 907 908 11 13 13 13 7303 7817 8401 9147 26 4 4 4 12905 15729 18110 21251 1554 2659 2980 3420 500 731 961 1191 212 363 407 467 61 74 78 94 1342 2296 2573 2953 1560 1879 1991 2401-2-4-4-5 0 0 0 0 1344 2300 2577 2958 302 391 423 510 NOPLAT 1357 2308 2574 2957 42 42 42 42 EPS()0.80 1.38 1.54 1.77 13 13 13 13 483 617 639 733 2961 3747 4147 4984 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 500 740 1003 1311 0 0 0 0 15.2%23.6%3.0%14.9%372 372 371 372 EBIT 10.6%70.1%11.5%14.9%872 1112 1374 1683 10.3%71.2%12.1%14.8%3833 4859 5521 6667 9069 10868 12588 14584 63.6%66.2%66.9%66.9%3 2 1 0 13.3%18.4%20.0%20.0%9072 10870 12589 14584 ROE 14.8%21.2%20.5%20.3%12905 15729 18110 21251 ROIC 16.7%22.7%21.3%20.7%29.7%30.9%30.5%31.4%2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 15.3%17.1%18.7%19.8%529 2306 2624 3617 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 1716 2734 3015 3416 1.3 1.6 1.8 2.0-92-246-206-217-342-244-20-227 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 404 332 116 426 49 49 49 44-1156-269-282 219 125 147 164 162-507-937-1021-1202 159 153 171 164-1956-936-1023-1204()0 0 0 0 0.80 1.38 1.54 1.77 1449-1 2 2 0.32 1.38 1.57 2.16-302-3-323-380 5.43 6.51 7.53 8.73 744 470 492 539-1220-883-974-1118 P/E 38 22 20 17 1 1 1 1 P/B 6 5 4 4 173 409 158 198 EV/EBITDA 27 17 15 14 002603 2009 1210 17 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2023 2021 2022 2022 2022 002603 2009 1210 18 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82756803 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572551 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572560 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 002603 2009 1210 19(300)6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522
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