资源描述
2009 1210 2023 04 28 601900 AI+27.52 16.78/22 79.64%35.52%87.82%+B 1 22-24 04-18 2+3 AI+AI+1 AI AI/AI/2 37 AI+APP+1+2 22 23 3+2-3+AI 2023/24/25 12.33/13.61/15.14 31%/10%/11%12/11/10 PE 23 PE 2023 20 PE 246.52 27.52 ReportFinancialIndex 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E()9,055 12,040 14,171 16,089(%)19.2%33.0%17.7%13.5%()943 1,233 1,361 1,514(%)16.7%30.7%10.4%11.2%()1.05 1.38 1.52 1.69()16 12 11 10()2.1 1.8 1.5 1.3 2023 4 27 010-63214660 S0360521010001()89,587.66()89,587.66()150.33()150.33(%)47.20()8.33 12/18.61/7.03(12)-10%49%108%167%22/04 22/07 22/09 22/12 23/02 23/042022-04-272023-04-27 300 601900 2009 1210 23 AI+2-3 AI+AI+1 AI AI/2 AI AI+APP+2-3+AI 2023/24/25 12.33/13.61/15.14 31%/10%/11%12/11/10 PE 23 PE 2023 20 PE 246.52 27.52 601900 2009 1210 3.6.6.7.8+.11.11.12 1.12 2.13 3.16 AI+.18+.20 1+.20 2.20 3+.22.24.26 601900 2009 1210 4 1.7 2 23Q1.7 3.7 4%.9 5%.9 6%.9 7%.9 8(%).10 9(%).10 10%.10 11.10 12.10 13.11 14%.12 15%.12 16%.13 17%.14 18.14 19%.14 20+2021.15 21.15 22/.16 23/.16 24 2021.16 25/.17 26/.17 27.18 28+.18 29 APP.19 30 2021.20 31 2021.20 32.21 33.22 601900 2009 1210 5 34.22 35 2017.22 36.23 37.24 38.25 601900 2009 1210 6 2009 12 2016 22 79.64%22 87.82%22 79.64%/87.82%/23.15%22 35.52%/87.82%/23.15%22 2.33%4 24 22 12.02%22 6.15%2009 12 2016 6 6 92 100%2019 51%3 2022 8 2020 2023 100%601900 2009 1210 7 1 23Q1 54.7%-20 E1 15.6%70.3%2 23Q1 3 601900 2009 1210 8,.,(),.,.()()()()17-22 21 76 10%22 91 6.57%23 Q1 22 6.80%22/70.67/31.52 79.64%/35.52%601900 2009 1210 9 4%5%18-22 2018 31.51%21 28.60%22 6%7%18-22 9%-12%9%-11%23 Q1 21 21 8.08 6%22 9.43 2.65%21 9.69 22+23Q1 2.23 72%37%23Q1 23Q1+0.2 0.72 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%01020304050607080901002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1(%)-60.00%-40.00%-20.00%0.00%20.00%40.00%60.00%80.00%100.00%120.00%140.00%160.00%2019 2020 2021 2022 051015202530354045502018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1 601900 2009 1210 10 8(%)9(%)21 20 40%-50%23Q1 31.81 10%11 2016-2019 30%2020 36%22 45%12 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%02468102017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1 yoy%363840424446482018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1(%)051015202530352018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1(0.00000.50001.00001.50002.00002.50003.00000.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%40.00%45.00%50.00%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022%(%601900 2009 1210 11+1 2 B To B To C 13/30 5 3 3 5000 70%601900 2009 1210 12 1 21 852 yoy+14%/7 14%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 19.56%19.65%9.09%34.39%12.74%12.27%20.68%22.90%17.68%22.98%5.32%7.66%20.71%6.40%12.35%19.03%7.21%-12.18%17.22%47.88%3.82%15.30%7.98%5.07%-68.70%131.56%GDP 7.04%8.35%11.47%10.49%7.31%2.74%12.84%excel 15%wind 2024/4/24 22 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%0.0050.00100.00150.00200.00250.00300.00350.00400.002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 yoy%601900 2009 1210 13 16%2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 yoy 5%7%7%10%6%5%yoy 1%6%8%13%6%8%yoy 4%0%-1%-2%0%-3%yoy 20%9%34%13%12%21%yoy 10%8%40%10%4%9%yoy 9%1%-4%3%8%11%yoy 11%6%-9%3%1%31%yoy 6%-1%-33%1%-21%27%yoy 4%6%35%2%27%4%+B=*=*2 2023-2025 2005-2019 6-18 2005-2019 12%3 2023-2025 601900 2009 1210 14 17%18*/excel 5 19%wind/*/excel+21 1 601900 2009 1210 15 2 21 651 3+20+2021“”e.g.:1 2 21 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 4259 4045 4122 3692 4022 51511 42368 48942 48849 50803 24787 27838 28753 31750 24052 24992 23569 23480 22989 16 162018201826302805101520253035 601900 2009 1210 16 3=*+*1+2-3 22/23/2015 21 7 24 2021 05101520253020052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021/05101520253035404550 28%28%35%49%35%34%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%601900 2009 1210 17 25/26/010002000300040005000600070008000/0100020003000400050006000700080009000/601900 2009 1210 18 AI+AI+AI+19 21 4.26 4%22 I AI+AI+&APP PC+AI 27 I 28 I+AI+AI AI 4 150+200000+37 601900 2009 1210 19 29 APP Appstore AI+1 AI+AI 2 AI+3 APP APP+/APP 22 V3.0 298 8 13 2022 6 1400 28,645,452 601900 2009 1210 20+1+2000 8%15%30 2021 31 2021 22 1 199 103 631 94 2 2+1 2019 05001000150020002500300035004000广东省江苏省山东省浙江省河南省四川省河北省湖南省安徽省江西省湖北省云南省北京市贵州省广西壮族自治区福建省陕西省上海市新疆维吾尔自治区重庆市山西省辽宁省甘肃省内蒙古自治区黑龙江省吉林省天津市海南省西藏自治区青海省宁夏回族自治区0100002000030000400005000060000700008000090000上海北京浙江江苏天津广东福建山东辽宁内蒙古重庆湖南湖北安徽江西海南河北四川陕西山西黑龙江河南广西吉林新疆青海云南甘肃 601900 2009 1210 21 51%3 2 22 4 6 9 6496(10.48)100%3 2022 8 17+1 19-21 1+2 32 22 23 10 8+0.000.501.001.502.002.502019 2020 2021 601900 2009 1210 22 33 34 1 2 35 2017 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 3+1-4,000.00-2,000.000.002,000.004,000.006,000.008,000.0010,000.0012,000.002019 2020 2021 2022M1-M10-400.00-200.000.00200.00400.00600.00800.001,000.001,200.001,400.002019 2020 2021 2022M1-M10 601900 2009 1210 23 2 3 2 21 11.14 10 2 7 2 6 6 2 7 2019 70 36 7 2019 70“”601900 2009 1210 24 1+2+2023/24/25 12.33/13.61/15.14 31%/10%/11%12/11/10 PE 23 PE 14X 2023/4/27 AI+2023 20 PE 246.52 27.52 37 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 52.15 55.97 65.25 68.97 75.98 90.55 120.40 141.71 160.90 yoy 7%17%6%10%19%33%18%14%26.11 29.34 36.50 39.83 50.09 70.67 83.26 97.88 110.15 yoy 12%24%9%26%41%18%18%13%22.28 24.51 25.84 28.45 30.07 31.52 38.51 44.05 49.90 yoy 10%5%10%6%5%22%14%13%12.78 10.96 11.50 9.42 10.56 10.66 11.20 11.76 12.35 yoy-14%5%-18%12%1%5%5%5%3.32 4.00 4.53 5.00 5.49 5.46 5.73 6.02 6.32 yoy 20%13%10%10%-1%5%5%5%0.86 1.16 1.48 1.74 2.17 2.07 2.26 2.44 2.56 yoy 35%28%18%25%-5%9%8%5%0.09 0.65 0.98 1.36 1.05 2.41 1.45 1.57 1.62-14.19-16.30-18.02-19.42-26.12-34.06-22.00-22.00-22.00 30.20%31.50%29.50%31.32%28.60%31.39%29.80%29.29%29.15%29%28%24%24%20%22%26%26%26%28%24%25%25%23%25%27%28%28%6%7%7%9%9%9%9%9%9%19%19%20%19%20%21%20%20%20%47%43%37%44%45%41%45%45%45%34%55%51%53%43%33%45%45%45%-0.28%-0.80%-0.33%0.05%0.27%0.24%0.27%0.27%0.27%601900 2009 1210 25 36.40 38.34 46.00 47.37 54.25 79.42 84.53 100.21 114.00 18.54 21.17 27.85 30.15 39.99 54.94 61.73 72.60 81.32 16.15 18.61 19.36 21.35 23.24 23.58 27.94 31.84 36.05 12.06 10.15 10.74 8.54 9.59 9.70 10.19 10.70 11.23 2.67 3.23 3.63 4.03 4.37 4.31 4.57 4.79 5.03 0.46 0.66 0.93 0.98 1.20 1.21 1.25 1.35 1.42 0.06 0.29 0.48 0.64 0.59 1.62 0.80 0.86 0.89-14.23-16.43-18.08-19.41-26.05-33.97-21.94-21.94-21.94 38 YoY PE PEG 2022E 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 2023E 2024E 32,447 2,081.8 2,179.4 2,371.6 5%9%15 14 3.17 1.55 24,102 1,392.2 1,614.7 1,761.7 16%9%15 14 0.93 1.50 21,975 1,680.4 1,804.0 1,909.0 7%6%12 12 1.66 1.98 23,060 1,396.7 1,526.9 1,660.5 9%9%15 14 1.62 1.59 wind 2023/4/27 wind 601900 2009 1210 26 AI+601900 2009 1210 27 Table_ValuationModels2 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 3,271 5,441 7,788 10,357 9,055 12,040 14,171 16,089 1 2 2 2 6,212 8,452 10,020 11,400 1,466 2,233 2,755 3,052 43 58 67 77 106 155 187 198 868 1,155 1,359 1,528 1,455 2,114 2,420 2,725 852 1,133 1,333 1,514 0 0 0 0 7 10 12 13 1,100 1,156 1,330 1,595-41-17-22-25 7,400 11,101 14,483 17,929-22-10-10-10 472 472 473 473-35 20 20 20 298 280 280 280-113-10-10-10 924 917 907 900 53 100 100 100 1,617 1,852 2,090 2,328 122 100 100 100 3,012 2,709 2,408 2,137 1,121 1,455 1,606 1,787 1,094 1,099 1,113 1,130 3 8 8 8 7,418 7,329 7,271 7,248 10 7 7 7 14,818 18,430 21,754 25,176 1,114 1,456 1,607 1,788 0 0 0 0 52 68 75 83 185 263 298 333 1,062 1,388 1,532 1,704 3,699 4,730 5,687 6,536 119 155 171 190 2 2 3 3 943 1,233 1,361 1,514 593 789 928 1,054 NOPLAT 1,023 1,371 1,511 1,681 487 487 487 487 EPS()1.05 1.38 1.52 1.69 50 150 100 100 432 565 654 737 5,447 6,986 8,157 9,250 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 729 1,251 1,727 2,204 0 0 0 0 19.2%33.0%17.7%13.5%594 638 638 638 EBIT 32.4%34.0%10.2%11.2%1,323 1,889 2,365 2,842 16.7%30.7%10.4%11.2%6,770 8,875 10,522 12,092 7,237 8,470 9,830 11,344 31.4%29.8%29.3%29.1%811 1,085 1,402 1,740 11.7%11.5%10.8%10.6%8,048 9,555 11,232 13,084 ROE 13.0%14.6%13.8%13.3%14,818 18,430 21,754 25,176 ROIC 14.8%15.5%14.1%13.2%45.7%48.2%48.4%48.0%2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 17.1%21.3%21.9%22.5%2,425 1,902 2,104 2,383 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.9 1,193 1,802 1,915 2,056 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.6-238-659-306-305 146-837-575-327 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 714 1,110 992 885 61 55 63 65 610 485 79 74 197 180 187 193-305-422-275-374 77 76 81 81-491-356-332-335()-134 18 0 0 1.05 1.38 1.52 1.69 319-84 57-39 2.71 2.12 2.35 2.66-1,015 690 518 560 8.08 9.45 10.97 12.66 176 622 427 477-649-14-13-14 P/E 16 12 11 10 0 0 0 0 P/B 2 2 2 1-542 82 104 98 EV/EBITDA 13 9 8 8 601900 2009 1210 28 2015-2016 2016-2019 2019-2020 TMT 2016/2017 2016 2016 2017 2017 2019 WIND 2019 WIND 2021 2021 2021 601900 2009 1210 29 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82756803 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572551 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572560 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 601900 2009 1210 30(300)6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522
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