资源描述
2009 1210 2023 06 16 603551 16.7 12.35+15-21 CAGR 13.9%22-8.6%22+22 2.4 673.2%23Q1 46.4%+6.1pct 17.2%+8.9pct 17-21 CAGR10.4%22/40.4%/23.6%21 232 4 CAGR13.8%21/20%/12%74%22 4.9%15 153 22 203 22/53.8%+2.8pct/38.0%(+7.8pct)22.7%22 38.9%22 22.4%23-25 3.2/3.5/3.9 34.5%/9.8%/8.5%PE 15/14/13 DCF 16.7 23 20.9 PE ReportFinancialIndex 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E()1,880 2,173 2,467 2,713(%)-8.6%15.6%13.5%10.0%()241 323 354 385(%)673.2%34.5%9.8%8.5%()0.60 0.80 0.88 0.96()21 15 14 13()3.2 3.0 2.9 2.8 2023 6 16 S0360520100002()40,170.00()39,915.90()49.61()49.30(%)30.93()3.97 12/12.47/7.56(12)-17%8%34%59%22/06 22/08 22/11 23/01 23/04 23/062022-06-162023-06-16 300 603551 2009 1210+23 23-25 3.2/3.5/3.9 34.5%/9.8%/8.5%PE 15/14/13 DCF 16.7 23 20.8 PE 603551 2009 1210 3“+”.6.6.8.10.11.13.16.18.18.20.22.25.26 603551 2009 1210 4 1.6 2“”+“”.7 3.8 4.8 5.9 6.9 7.9 8.9 9.10 10 19.10 11.10 12.10 13.11 14.12 15.12 16.13 17 2022.13 18.14 19.14 20.14 21.15 22.15 23.15 24.16 25.16 26.17 27.17 28.17 29.18 30.18 31.18 32.18 33.19 603551 2009 1210 5 34.19 35.19 36.20 37.20 38.21 39.21 40.21 41.22 42.22 43.22 44.23 45.23 46.23 47 2022.24 48.24 49.24 50.24 51 2020-2022.24 52.25 53.26 603551 2009 1210 6+1 2 3+1993 2004 06 16 2020 A 1+603551 2009 1210 7 2+Fang James 23 6 53.7%4 65.3%603551 2009 1210 8 3 2023.04.12 2023 3 6 14 254.1 60 0.78%5.86/2023/2024 2.5/2.8 36.6%/12%23 2.5 4 2023 3 6 14 254.10 0.78%2 50%2023 2.5 22 36.6%2024 2.8 23 12%23 2.5 2015 9.5 2021 20.6 6 CAGR 13.9%22 18.8 8.6%23 Q1 3.5 7.9%21 1.73 22 2.4 673.2%21 23 Q1 0.6 115.2%603551 2009 1210 9 5 6 8 2022/9.9/5.0/1.0/2.9-1.5%/-23.2%/-4.9%/-2.3%22 79.2%2022/31.3%/31.4%/19.0%/11.9%/2.3%/4.1%8.8%38.9%7 8 2020 LED 2019 2020 22 3.4pct 44.4%23Q1 46.4%22 13%23Q1 17.2%2022/16.5%/6.0%/4.9%/-1.3%-2.5pct/-0.4pct/0.0pct/+0.1pct-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%0510152025 YoY-200%-100%0%100%200%300%400%500%600%700%800%00.511.522.533.5 YoY-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%0246810122015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-YoY-YoY-YoY YoY-0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2016 2017 2018 2019H1 2020 2021 2022 603551 2009 1210 10 9 10 19 2022 4.2 72.8%1.7 10 20 A 2022 3.8%11 12 22 Q4 23 44.4%46.36%13.0%17.24%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%16.5%6.0%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%100%200%300%400%500%600%700%800%900%0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.52015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-%-0%1%2%3%4%5%6%2020-04-20 2021-04-20 2022-04-20 2023-04-20 603551 2009 1210 11 1999 1999 2015 2015 2015 13 1 PTC 2 3 603551 2009 1210 12 14 PTC:5-10:300 500-3000 2021 33.1 6.8%2017 17-21 10.4%15 250 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%051015202530352017年 2018 年 2019 年 2020年 2021 年-603551 2009 1210 13 16 OEM-75%2022/7%/40.4%/23.6%/9.7%17 2022 603551 2009 1210 14 18 19 10 3 20 1.2.1.2.1.2.3.1.2.3.2004 2004 2008 2008 2015 2015 603551 2009 1210 15 C B 21 2004-2008 2008-2015 2015 17 138 21 232 13.8%/16%/8%20%/12%22 23 2022-2029 Top10 20%1000 TOP10 20%2021 9.8/6.5/5.6 2021 231.9 21/4.2%/2.8%/2.4%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%0501001502002502017年 2018年 2019年 2020年 2021 年 YoY0%5%10%15%20%25%2017年 2018年 2019 年 2020 年 2021 年 603551 2009 1210 16 24 20%4.2%2.8%2.4%2021/25 299 499 999 2299 9998 603551 2009 1210 17 26 27 28 2023 43%80%74%5%2021+33.3 16%603551 2009 1210 18 29 30 20 60/20 50 31 32 1 2 3 2022 0.92 4.90%623 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E2023E中国 北美 日本 欧洲58%60%62%64%66%68%70%72%74%76%0501001502002503003502020 2021 2022m1-9()()0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%00.511.522.532014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E YoY17.526.928.833.30%10%20%30%40%50%60%051015202530352018 2019 2020 2021 YoY 603551 2009 1210 19 33 34 22 9 NBSS+96.8%94%2 230m/h 2 35 NBSS+1 96.8%94%2 2 230m/h 3-4 Hannu Kahonen-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0.000.200.400.600.801.001.202015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YoY0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 603551 2009 1210 20 36 NBSS+230m/h 24500m 7 37 1.16/m3 24500m 20 99.99%230m/h-7 3 1500mL/h-9 603551 2009 1210 21 23Q1/1987/926/811/496 38 39 2023.05.15 1 500w 100 450w 200 2 170 500 3 300 1100 NBSS+96.8%92.5%40 2100w E161 2100w 11w 399 2600W E171 2600w/2000w 13w 499 100 FV-TB30USA 1650W+1099 FV-RB20Y1 2100W+1299 200 S368M 2600w/1300w 12w+829 A8E 2600w/1300w+11w+APP 999 170 FV-RB20V1 2100W+360 1499 FV-TB54VD1 2100W+360+1999 500 Q360C 2800w+12w+1799 Q360A-Pro 2600w+12w+NBSS+2099 300 39949969999989999911991299229925993999050010001500200025003000350040004500E161E171E371A127S368M语音智控静电除菌智能净味Q360A-ProQ360AS-ProN20经济款系列 智能系列 空气管家系列1987926 887 811 790577 564 4969999399918992899149964929993870020004000600080001000012000 603551 2009 1210 22 FV-RB20LS1 2100W+360+2199 FV-30BQS1C 2100W+360+3299 1100 41 N80-Pro FV-45BH1C 3699 9299 3000w 3200w 19w/55w 220m3/h 55w/17w 240m3/h app NBSS+16 153 203 22/53.8%/38.0%2.8pct/7.8pct 22 22 60.8%5.4pct 42 43 2022/-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%0501001502002502016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YoY0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 603551 2009 1210 23 31.3%/31.4%/19.0%/11.9%/2.3%/4.1%8.8%38.9%44 2 120 KA ODM OEM KA 2022 1000 1342 45 46 22 22.7%IP 1,500+40%2 0200400600800100012002015 2016 2017 2018 19H1 2020 2021 2022(0200400600800100012001400160018002015 2016 2017 2018 19H1 2020 2021 2022 603551 2009 1210 24 47 2022 48+22 4400 38.9%32 22 22.4%20-22 49 50 51 2020-2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022/22.7%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%05001000150020002500300035004000450050002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YoY22.4%0%5%10%15%20%25%2020 2021 22M1-9 603551 2009 1210 25 23 23-25 15.6%/13.5%/10%23-25 34.5%/9.8%/8.5%Wind 23 20.8X 23.06.16 DCF 2%2.7%7.2%Beta 0.9 WACC 9.2%DCF 16.7/23 20.9 PE 52 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 18.8 21.7 24.7 27.1 YoY-8.6%15.6%13.5%10.0%9.9 11.4 12.9 14.2 YoY-1.5%15.0%13.0%10.0%5.0 5.7 6.6 7.2 YoY-23.2%15.0%15.0%10.0%1.0 1.3 1.6 1.9 YoY-4.9%30.0%20.0%15.0%0.8 1.0 1.2 1.3 YoY-15.2%25.0%15.0%10.0%0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 YoY-49.2%20.0%15.0%10.0%1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 YoY 55.6%5.0%5.0%5.0%44.4%45.6%45.6%45.7%2.4 3.2 3.5 3.9 YoY 673.2%34.5%9.8%8.5%Wind 603551 2009 1210 26 53 EPS P/E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 603515.SH 15,209 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.5 19.4x 16.5x 14.6x 13.1x 603848.SH 5,883 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 26.9x 19.2x 16.0 x 13.5x 300894.SZ 10,608 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.5 33.7x 24.7x 20.1x 16.9x 001322.SZ 17,661 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 29.8x 23.6x 19.3x 16.2x 603833.SH 62,865 4.4 5.2 6.1 7.0 23.4x 19.9x 17.0 x 14.7x 22,445 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.5 26.6x 20.8x 17.4x 14.9x 603551.SH 4,961 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 20.7x 16.8x 14.4x 12.6x Wind Wind 2023.06.16 603551 2009 1210 27 Table_ValuationModels2 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 1,125 1,148 1,242 1,310 1,880 2,173 2,467 2,713 6 63 63 50 1,046 1,182 1,341 1,473 109 135 152 244 18 19 21 23 8 15 15 17 309 366 423 471 234 272 319 348 113 137 155 171 0 0 0 0 92 117 138 155 39 118 151 127-24-20-22-24 1,521 1,751 1,942 2,096-53-15-8-8 18 18 18 18-21-8-12-13 98 98 98 98 0 0 0 0 524 513 505 501 14 14 8 10 0 1 2 3 10 10 10 10 99 97 93 91 276 372 409 444 144 145 147 149 1 1 1 1 883 872 863 860 0 0 0 0 2,404 2,623 2,805 2,956 277 373 410 445 3 0 0 0 32 44 49 53 211 256 291 314 245 329 361 392 275 297 344 373 4 6 7 7 0 0 0 0 241 323 354 385 91 105 119 131 NOPLAT 223 311 342 371 75 75 75 75 EPS()0.60 0.80 0.88 0.96 7 7 7 7 91 118 130 142 753 858 966 1,042 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-8.6%15.6%13.5%10.0%64 64 64 64 EBIT 1,045.6%39.4%9.8%8.5%64 64 64 64 673.2%34.5%9.8%8.5%817 922 1,030 1,106 1,535 1,644 1,712 1,782 44.4%45.6%45.6%45.7%52 57 63 68 13.0%15.1%14.6%14.4%1,587 1,701 1,775 1,850 ROE 15.6%19.6%20.7%21.6%2,404 2,623 2,805 2,956 ROIC 17.9%23.1%24.2%25.1%34.0%35.1%36.7%37.4%2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 4.7%4.2%4.0%3.8%422 250 397 400 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 277 363 393 421 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 73-39-47-28 68-82-6-68 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9-92 67 82 51 22 20 21 26 96-60-25 24 98 87 86 88-102-43-45-49 93 77 79 82-93-41-44-47()-56 0 0 0 0.60 0.80 0.88 0.96 47-2-1-2 1.05 0.62 0.99 1.00-367-184-258-283 3.82 4.09 4.26 4.44-7-3 0 0-237-293-322-350 P/E 21 15 14 13 0 0 0 0 P/B 3 3 3 3-123 112 64 67 EV/EBITDA 16 12 11 11 603551 2009 1210 28 2020 2020 2021 2021 2022 2023 603551 2009 1210 29 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 603551 2009 1210 30 A 300 500/6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522
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