资源描述
2009 1210 2023 06 02 600481 20.46 12.19+2022 144.76+278%9.56+208%2023Q1 54.63 215%5.02 315%2023 1 2021 2022 40GW 90GW 40GW 20GW 2 20 2022 62%2020-2022 1 2 3 2021-2035 GGII 2022 722MW 2025 150 2023-2025 29.44/39.26/49.83 24.88/30.78/38.41 PE 8/6/5 2023 13x PE 20.46 ReportFinancialIndex 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E()14,476 32,229 42,536 51,990(%)278.0%122.6%32.0%22.2%()956 2,944 3,926 4,983(%)208.3%207.9%33.4%26.9%()0.51 1.57 2.10 2.66()24 8 6 5()3.3 2.5 2.0 1.6 2023 6 1 S0360522080001 S0360522100003()187,066.13()187,066.13()228.03()228.03(%)69.76()3.92 12/19.68/11.75(12)600481 2022 2023 2023-05-04 600481 2023 2023-04-16 600481 2023-01-05-14%12%38%65%22/06 22/08 22/10 23/01 23/03 23/062022-06-012023-06-01 300 600481 2009 1210 1 2 2023 3 2021 2022 40GW 2021 115.5 2023 40-50GW 2022 4 15 20GW 5GW 2022 5 9 5GW 2023 3-4GW 20 2022 62%1 2 3 GGII 2022 722MW 2025 150 100-200 100 2023-2025 322.29/425.36/519.90 29.44/39.26/49.83 TCL 2023 13x PE 20.46 600481 2009 1210 3.6.6+.6.7.8.10 70%.11.12.12 1.12 2.12 3.13 20GW.14.15 1 12.5%.15 2.15 3.16.18.18.19.20.22.22.23.24.24.25.25 600481 2009 1210 4 1“+”.6 2“+”.7 3.7 4 10.13%45%.8 5 2022.8 6 2023Q1 54.63+215%.8 7 2023Q1 5.02+315%.8 8.9 9 2022 59%.9 10.10 11.10 12.10 13.10 14 29.7.11 15 18.6.11 16 34.91.11 17.12 18 2022 86.05.12 19.13 20 2023-2024.14 21 20GW 5GW.15 22.15 23.15 24 12.5%.15 25 2023 240+102%.16 26 2025 140.16 27 2023 40 38%.17 28.17 29.18 30 2022 9.91+47.4%.19 31 2022/447/545.19 32 2022 6.05+47.4%.19 33 2022/659/626.19 600481 2009 1210 5 34.20 35.20 36 2022 11.42+19.8%.21 37 2022/14215/12841.21 38 2022 106GW 2021.21 39 2025 90.22 40 2021 1%.23 41 2025 10GW.23 42.23 43.24 44.24 45 2023-2025 PE 12/9/8.25 600481 2009 1210 6 1982 2005 2015 2021 40GW 2022 2023 50GW 1 1982-2007 1985 2005 2006 2 2007-2021 2007 2015 3 2021 2021 2022 1“+”+“”2022 600481 2009 1210 7 40GW 2022 4 20GW 5GW P N 182 210mm 400W-700W 90GW 40GW 20GW 2“+”3 10.13%45%2023 10.13%0.78%9.35%45%6.37%1 2018 2018 4 2018 2.03/89 1700 1405 82.65%2018/2019/2020 2.50/3.00/3.75 2019 2020 2 2022 2022 8 2022 5384.7 256.7(1)5.58/167/93.5%600481 2009 1210 8 4 10.13%45%5 2022 111.60 1.98%/4854.60 86.05%/418.50 7.42%256.68 4.55%5641.38 100.00%iFinD 2023 2015 2015-2022 CAGR 24.53%CAGR 15.51%2022 144.76+278%9.56+208%2022 2023Q1 54.63+215%-5%5.02+315%+299%6 2023Q1 54.63+215%7 2023Q1 5.02+315%iFinD iFinD 2022 86.05 2021 2.35 2021 6.14%2022 59.44%2022 29.05+197%2022 20.07%21 5.48pct-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%0204060801001201401602015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1 YoY-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%0246810122015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1 YoY 600481 2009 1210 9 2022 27.37+7%18.91%2017-2022 CAGR 16.60%2022 6.84%7.89%4.18%8 9 2022 59%Wind Wind 2022 16.51%11.33pct 2023Q1 14.66%3.88pct 2022 7.23%1.64pct 2023Q1 9.82%1.99pct 1 2022 7.86%2 2022 34.74%3.80pct 3 2022 23.5%3.95pct/27.68%/16.38%/30.13%-0.44/-8.42/-1.55pct 0204060801001201401602015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 600481 2009 1210 10 10 11 Wind Wind 2023Q1 5.31%4.91pct/()/0.96%/3.19%/1.15%-1.49/-3.45/+0.03pct 2022 5.02+188%3.47%1.08pct N 12 13 Wind Wind 2021 P 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%01234562017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022/600481 2009 1210 11 N 20GW 20GW 2022 7 2.43 34.61 29.73 20GW 4.88 2023 3 26 18.6 20GW 20GW 20GW 2023 14 29.7 15 18.6 1 40GW 20GW 69.99 29.73 2 4.88 4.88 74.87 34.61 1 40GW 20GW 62.37 18.60 2 7.40 7.40 69.77 26.00 70%2003-2022 34.91 72%2010-2019 80%2022 10 3 2022 5 30 5.61 58.7%16 34.91 iFinD 0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%100.0%120.0%140.0%160.0%0.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.002003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022()()600481 2009 1210 12 1 2021 2022 40GW 2021 2 2021 6 2021 182mm 210mm/2021 3 40GW 40GW 20GW 20GW 2022 11 105 50GW 90/40GW/17 GW GW 2021 3 20GW 70 20 20 2022 40GW 2022 1 20GW 62 20 20 2022 11 50GW 105 50-iFinD 2022 86.05 59.4%2022 7.86%+19.9pct 18 2022 86.05 iFinD 2 2023 40-50GW-35.0%-30.0%-25.0%-20.0%-15.0%-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%0.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.0080.0090.00100.002021 2022 600481 2009 1210 13 2021 115.5 4.8 182mm 182/210mm 7.8/10.4W/2023 40-50GW 19/22 23 24 2023/4/4+7.2 7.2 P/N 182/210 48.02 2023 2023/3/31 2.5 2.5 P/N 182 20.09 2023 2023/3/22 1.4 1.4 P/N 182 8.61 2023 2023/3/13 3.3 3.3/182/210 27.39 2023 2022/7/23 2.0 3.0 4.5 9.5/182/210 90.92 2022-2024 2022/5/10 0.7 6.0 9.0 15.7/210 142.27 2022-2024 2022/2/15 3.9 6.0 9.0 18.9/210 159.5 2022-2024 2022/1/18 2.5 4.0 4.0 10.5/182/210 63.05 2022-2024 2021/12/7 0.5 1.0 1.5 3.0/182 18.6 2022-2024 2021/11/16 1.5 3.0 5.0 9.5/182 65.27 2022-2024 2021/10/26 3.0 8.0 10.0 21.0/182 144.27 2022-2024 2021/10/15 2.0 5.0 6.0 13.0/182/210 83.33 2022-2024-16.1 50.3 49.0 115.5-2023/3/23 7800 N/26.02 2023-2025 2022/7/21 7800/210 30.24 2022-2025 2021/12/7 22800/182/210 71.97 2022-2024 2021/12/7 9720/182/210 30.87 2022-2024-48120-3 1.5 2023-2024 TQC 600481 2009 1210 14 2023 35GW 20 2023-2024 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.6 2.6 TQC 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.8 3.8 1.5 3.7 5.0 7.5 10 1.0 1.5 2.0 0.7 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.5 2.2 4.4 7.2 10.3 13.5 2.5 2.9 3.0 3.6 4.8 2.2 4.0 6.7 9.6 12.5 2.24 2.88 3.29 3.66 4.53 2.24 4.32 6.10 8.55 10.57 0.26-0.01-0.29-0.11 0.27-0.04-0.30 0.60 1.00 1.93 21 CPIA 20GW 5GW 2022 4 7 15 20GW 5GW 2022 5 8 9 25 5GW P N 182 210 700W 22.5%TV EPC 2023 3-4GW 600481 2009 1210 15 21 20GW 5GW 22(mm)/P/N W Gigalumi SL-G12 210 P 585-660 Gigalumi SL-G12S P 585-660 Gigalumi SL-G12N N 590-675 Gigalumi SL-M10 182 P 400-555 Gigalumi SL-M10S P 400-555 Gigalumi SL-M10N N 410-575 1 12.5%12.5%2.5 4.98/0.62/28.1%12.5%23 24 12.5%()2 2020,25.5%20.2%12.3%13.9%12.5%15.6%,28.1%600481 2009 1210 16 Solarzoom 2022 120+74%2022 2023 2023 240+100%120+134%25 2023 240+102%Solarzoom 2023 103 121%22 0.5/0.3/2023/2024/2025 103/125/140 121%/21%/12%2022-2025 CAGR 44%26 2025 140 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 69.0 118.9 240.2 384.3 538.0 YoY 45.5%72.3%102.1%60.0%40.0%21.6 49.9 121.3 144.1 153.7/5000 5000 4800 4600 4500 10.8 25.0 58.2 66.3 69.2/3000 3000 2800 2600 2500 6.5 15.0 34.0 37.5 38.4 17.3 39.9 92.2 103.8 107.6 4.6 6.6 10.8 20.8 32.3 21.8 46.5 103.0 124.5 139.9 YoY 113.4%121.4%20.8%12.3%Solarzoom 3 20 2003 2015 75%85%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%0501001502002503002019H 2019 2020H 2020 2021H 2021 2022H 2022 2023H E 2023 E YoY 600481 2009 1210 17 2022 29.05+197%34.7%-3.8pct 2020-2022 27 2023 40 38%iFinD 22 60%-65%2022 62%2022 49.1 2023 40 38%28/2022.2.9 7.44 2022.2.15 2.62 2022.2.22 5.56 2022.5.10 3.24 2022.5.12 1.39 2022.5.21 1.56 2022.5.31 2.43 2022.6.10 4.11 2022.7.8 2.14 2022.10.11 4.29 2022.10.18 2.55 2022.12.29 2.64 2022 39.96 2023.1.20 6.55 2023.2.18 2.59 2022 49.11 0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%400%450%500%0510152025303540452020 2021 2022 2023E YoY 600481 2009 1210 18 1985 29/2022 9.91-17.0%6.8%-24.3pct 27.68%-0.4pct 2022/447/545-33%/-13%2022 600481 2009 1210 19 30 2022 9.91+47.4%31 2022/447/545 iFinD iFinD 2005 2022 6.05+47.4%4.2%-6.5pct 30%2022/659/626+4.9%/-2.6%32 2022 6.05+47.4%33 2022/659/626 iFinD iFinD PTA PTA-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.02013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%01002003004005006007008002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022()()()-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.02013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%01002003004005006007008009002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022(600481 2009 1210 20 34()2023/1/20 10 II A1 A3 0.93 2022/10/15,1.12 2022/6/2 1.26 2022/6/2 2.05 2021/8/10 1.05 2021/3/12 0.68 2021/2/5 0.52 2006 2016 35 2022 11.42+19.8%7.9%-17.0pct 16.4%-8.4pct 2022/14215/12841+83.4%/+67.5%600481 2009 1210 21 36 2022 11.42+19.8%37 2022/14215/12841 iFinD iFinD 230-280GW 2025 13 2021/2022 28.1/28.2GW 2021 Global Energy Monitor 2021 23GW 2022 106GW 2021 2015 38 2022 106GW 2021 Global Energy Monitor 200GW 2-3 2023-2025-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0.02.04.06.08.010.012.02013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%02000400060008000100001200014000160002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022(600481 2009 1210 22 50GW 70GW 80GW 75%75%200/KW 2025 90 2022-2025 CAGR 44%39 2025 90 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2937 2680 5000 7000 8000 75%75%75%75%75%75%75%75%75%75%1652 1508 2813 3938 4500/KW 200 200 200 200 200 33 30 56 79 90 CREA 2022 3 2021-2035 2025 1020/100-200/2021 3300 2021 1%GGII 2022 722MW 106%2023 452MW 2021 1.5/W TrendBank 2025 120 2025 10GW 1.5/W 150 600481 2009 1210 23 40 2021 1%41 2025 10GW GGII TrendBank 2022 3 2022 9 1000Nm/h 42 IGBT 4.2-4.8kWh/Nm3,3000-4000A/m2 76%1200Nm3/h 99.9999%,63.6%,13.8%,21.2%,1.0%,0.4%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%400%0246810122021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E GW YoY 600481 2009 1210 24 43 kWh/Nm3 Nm3/h Lhy-A1000 ALK 3.9-4.4 1500 CDQ ALK 4.5 20-2000 DQ-300/1.6 ALK 4.4 2-1300 CIMC-GH ALK 4.3 1200 ALK 4.2-4.8 1200 2023 350GW 50%2022 40GW 13GW 23-25 35/53/68GW 23-25 189.3/229.5/244.4 23-25 3.5/8.0/15.0GW 51.1/99.1/165.9 23-25 40.2/48.6/54.6 26%/21%/12%23-25 38.7/43.1/47.0 100-200 23-25 30/50/80 3/5/8 44 2023E 2024E 2025E GW 35 53 68/W 0.54 0.43 0.36 189.3 229.5 244.4 15.0%15.0%15.0%GW 3.5 8 15/W 1.65 1.4 1.25 51.1 99.1 165.9 11.4%11.6%12.7%40.2 48.6 54.6 34.0%33.0%32.0%38.7 43.1 47.0 22.3%22.1%22.0%30 50 80/1000 1000 1000 600481 2009 1210 25 3.0 5.0 8.0 20.0%25.0%25.0%322.3 425.4 519.9 59.5 76.5 93.6 18.5%18.0%18.0%29.4 39.3 49.8 A TCL wind 2023-2025 5 PE 12/9/8 2023-2025 29.44/39.26/49.83 24.88/30.78/38.41 PE 8/6/5 2023 13x PE 20.46 45 2023-2025 PE 12/9/8 PE 2023 2024 2025 2023 2024 2025 300217.SZ 82 5.2 6.5 8.0 16 13 10 601012.SH 2,171 188.5 234.2 270.2 12 9 8 TCL 002129.SZ 1,179 98.7 120.1 139.6 12 10 8 603185.SH 313 44.9 55.8 66.3 7 6 5 688556.SH 147 11.4 14.8 19.5 13 10 8 12 9 8 600481.SH 228 29.4 39.3 49.8 8 6 5 Wind 2023 6 1 wind 600481 2009 1210 Table_ValuationModels2 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 4,674 5,140 4,454 6,030 14,476 32,229 42,536 51,990 0 104 143 122 12,087 26,280 34,886 42,634 915 4,685 6,780 9,156 56 258 302 349 1,174 2,112 3,151 3,857 236 580 723 780 2,841 6,798 9,250 12,167 282 645 766 936 248 1,962 3,237 2,854 403 806 978 1,092 1,989 4,148 5,400 6,314 132 50 50 58 11,841 24,949 32,415 40,500-8-8-8-8 125 278 367 449-115-42-51-60 273 273 273 273 0 0 0 0 7,044 10,006 13,020 14,956 14 14 14 14 1,681 2,754 2,576 1,773 57 57 57 57 443 474 516 572 1,229 3,631 4,842 6,145 536 539 541 543 1 1 1 1 10,103 14,324 17,294 18,566 6 6 6 6 21,943 39,273 49,709 59,066 1,225 3,627 4,837 6,141 2,913 4,619 6,324 8,029 178 529 705 895 2,976 6,838 8,833 10,944 1,046 3,098 4,132 5,246 1,625 7,911 10,592 11,656 90 155 207 262 0 0 0 0 956 2,944 3,926 4,983 1,786 3,976 5,247 6,413 NOPLAT 1,159 3,141 4,175 5,295 2,828 2,828 2,828 2,828 EPS()0.51 1.57 2.10 2.66 1,163 1,163 1,163 1,163 464 1,099 1,395 1,721 13,755 28,433 36,381 42,754 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 170 297 396 455 0 0 0 0 278.0%122.6%32.0%22.2%1,104 1,104 1,104 1,104 EBIT 199.8%171.0%32.9%26.8%1,274 1,401 1,500 1,559 208.3%207.9%33.4%26.9%15,029 29,834 37,881 44,313 6,829 9,211 11,409 14,088 16.5%18.5%18.0%18.0%86 228 418 665 7.2%9.6%9.7%10.1%6,914 9,439 11,827 14,752 ROE 14.0%32.0%34.4%35.4%21,943 39,273 49,709 59,066 ROIC 12.2%24.0%25.2%25.8%68.5%76.0%76.2%75.0%2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 77.4%76.1%76.0%72.9%-3,430 3,895 2,925 4,331 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1,481 3,683 4,925 6,260 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7-1,788-3,958-2,452-2,917-627-4,770-3,122-3,001 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 4,565 10,148 4,676 3,176 25 31 49 55-7,060-1,207-1,102 814 39 65 95 94-788-4,601-3,623-2,143 58 66 83 90-6,187-4,600-3,622-2,144()0 0 0 0 0.51 1.57 2.10 2.66 5,399-1-1 2-1.83 2.08 1.56 2.32 4,730 1,171 12-613 3.65 4.92 6.10 7.53 2,764 1,832 1,805 1,764-161-1,876-2,491-3,154 P/E 24 8 6 5 3,465 3,465 3,465 3,465 P/B 3 3 2 2-1,338-2,249-2,767-2,688 EV/EBITDA 16 6 5 4 600481 2009 1210 27/2022 5 2 2022 2022 2 2022 1 2 2022 2022 2022 600481 2009 1210 28 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572560 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 600481 2009 1210 29 A 300 500/6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522
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