资源描述
2009 1210 2023 06 25 002121 9.6 7.25 1996 2007 2018“”2022 35.39+10.65%-1.01 23 8.28 2022 5012“”6700 2016-2021 CAGR 61.02%BMS PCS PCS PCS 1 PCS BMS EMS 2 2022 2022 2GWh 2023 5 31 8.3 2.52 3.28/2018-2021 2023-2025 2.48 6.68 12.36 PE 48 18 10 24 24 PE 9.6“”ReportFinancialIndex 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E()3,539 6,950 9,400 14,050(%)10.7%96.4%35.3%49.5%()-101 248 668 1,236(%)84.8%345.2%169.1%84.9%()-0.06 0.15 0.40 0.74()-119 48 18 10()18.6 10.5 6.6 3.9 2023 6 21 S0360522080001()166,081.67()139,992.62()120.41()101.49(%)92.38()0.44 12/11.80/6.51(12)-21%7%36%64%22/06 22/09 22/11 23/01 23/04 23/062022-06-272023-06-21 300 002121 2009 1210 1 8.28 2 B C 1 17 3GWh 22 5GWh 2023-2025 16GWh 2 MWh 2023-2025 2.48 6.68 12.36 PE 48 18 10 24 24 PE 9.6 002121 2009 1210 3.6.6.7.9.9.11.12.12.14.16.16.17.17.17.18.19 002121 2009 1210 4 1.6 2.6 3 2023 5 31.7 4 22+10.65%.7 5.7 6.8 7 2022 71.31%.8 8.8 9.8 10.9 11 2022.9 12 2019-2022.9 13 2021.9 14 8.10 15 2019.10 16 25 10.10 17 25 350.10 18 2018-2019.11 19 2021.11 20 2023.06.11 21.12 22.12 23.12 24 2022 13.8%TWh.13 25 2021.13 26 MW.13 27 2021.13 28 2021.14 29 PCS.14 30.14 31.15 32 2021 2022 2023.2.15 33 2022 5GWh.16 002121 2009 1210 5 34 2023-2025 4GWh/4GWh/8GWh.16 35.16 36.16 37.17 38.17 39.17 40.18 41 2023 6 21.19 002121 2009 1210 6 1 1996 2007 2014 MW 2017 2020 AGC 3MW PCS 2 2023 5 31 8.3 2.52 3.28/22.79%8.95%002121 2009 1210 7 3 2023 5 31 Wind 2020-2022 33.37 31.98 35.39 2023Q1 6.39+10.07%2019-2021-23.76 1.85-6.65 2021 458.9%2022-1.01+84.78%4 22+10.65%5 Wind Wind 2019 70%2022 25.23 2.97%2022 6.94 197.30%2019 2.73%19.61%2022 2.72 13.41%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1()()-500%-400%-300%-200%-100%0%100%200%-3000-2500-2000-1500-1000-500050010002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1()()002121 2009 1210 8 6 7 2022 71.31%Wind Wind 2019-2022 2019 45.25%2022 32.09%2022 3 2022 11.36 1333.42 7.01%10.66%9.14%0.69%8 9 Wind Wind 5 2019-2021 29.45%31.12%28.97%2022 26.38%8.94%2023 Q1 32.86%8.95%2019-2021-84.26%5.90%-20.81%2022-3.37%83.81%2019 4.89%2021 0100020003000400050002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022,71.31%,19.61%,7.68%,1.23%,0.05%,0.11%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%020040060080010001200140016002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1()()()()()0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1(%)(%)(%)(%)%002121 2009 1210 9 37.17%2022 14.05%23.12%10 11 2022 Wind Wind 2019-2021 2022 5012 1 4 2022 5094 1.6%2020 2021“”“”6700“”51%2022 5“”100“”12 2019-2022 13 2021“”2018-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1 0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022H1-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%4100420043004400450046004700480049005000510052002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022(已实现)()YoY()-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%-200 400 600 800 1,000 1,2002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YoY 002121 2009 1210 10 2019 39.8%2021 2022 4235 17%6-8 3-4 14 8 15 2019 2018 5 2025 10 2030 20 2025 350 2021-2025 CAGR15.97%16 25 10 17 25 350 3-5%2-3%0100020003000400050006000700080009000100002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021()05101520252018 2025E 2030E 0501001502002503003504002019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E()002121 2009 1210 11 18 2018-2019 19 2021 2022 3 2022 8 13.06 2022 2023 3.78 20 2023.06 2021.06 2021 26039.06 2021.08 2021 6984.96 2021.08 2021 7759.16 2021.11 2021 33571.87 2021/74355.05 2022.02 2021 14183.89 2022.02 2021 5888.93 2022.06 2022 54336.79 2022.06 2022 8322.19 2022.06 2022 5310.15 2022.08 2022 11979.44 2022.11 2022 11397.57 2022.12 2022 19206.37 2022/130625.33 2023.02 2022 13225.60 3%3%3%3%3%2%2%2%2%2%75%威胜集团东方威思顿三星医疗炬华科技许继电气国电南瑞正泰电器林洋能源盛帆电子华立科技其他5%4%4%4%4%3%3%3%3%3%65%三星医疗华立科技威思顿许继仪表炬华科技林洋能源威胜集团海兴电力 002121 2009 1210 12 2023.06 2023 8270.92 2023.06 2023 16324.50 6%2022 12 2022 1,788 1,261 21 22 Wind Wind 23 ISM RF 2021 10.5%2022 13.8%6.89%9.61%9.52%6.62%6.70%6.61%8.46%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%0501001502002503003504002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1()()05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0002019 2020 2021 2022 002121 2009 1210 13/CNESA 2022 30.7GW 98%20GW 20.4GW 2021 2 86%2021 7 24 2022 13.8%TWh 25 2021 CNESA 2021 86.3%2016-2021 CAGR 80.28%CAGR 61.02%2021 34%24%22%26 MW 27 2021 CNESA CNESA BMS PCS 2021 89.7%BMS EMS PCS BMS EMS 0%5%10%15%02000400060008000100002013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022(TWh)(TWh),86.3%,9.2%,0.1%,1.2%,3.2%0%50%100%150%200%05,00010,00015,00020,00025,0002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 MW MW YOY YOY,34%,24%,22%,7%,6%,7%002121 2009 1210 14 PCS BMS EMS 67%10%9%6%2%28 2021 29 PCS CNESA 2009 AGC PCS BMS EMS BMS EMS 30 2021 5MW/5MWh 2021 2021 24MW/63MWh 280Ah PCS PCS 51.2MW PCS 2021 2MW/5.6MWh 2022 485MWh 1500V UL9540A 2021 10001500V,89.7%,5.9%,0.9%,0.2%,3.2%,0.1%,67%BMS,9%PCS,10%EMS,2%,3%,6%,3%002121 2009 1210 15 PCS DCDC 31 PCS DCDC 10001500V 2022 150MW/300MWh 1205MWh 600MW 32 2021 2022 2023.2 2022.07 450MWh 600MW PCS/2022.07 150MW/300MWh 40950 2022.05 201MWh/2022.03 485MWh/2022.01 69MWh 2021.12 3MWh 2021 38MW/109.3MWh/2017 3GWh 2022 7 5GWh 2023 4GWh 2024 4GWh 2025 8GWh 2022 2022 2GWh 002121 2009 1210 16 33 2022 5GWh 2017 3GWh 2022 5GWh 34 2023-2025 4GWh/4GWh/8GWh 2023 2024 2025 1GWh 1GWh 2GWh 1GWh 1GWh 2GWh 1GWh 1GWh 2GWh 1GWh 1GWh 2GWh 4GWh 4GWh 8GWh 2022 5 23“+”2022 12 5 1.26 8.95%2023 5 31 8.3 2.52 35 36 2018 8.28 002121 2009 1210 17 37 38 wind wind 2020 2022 B B EPC 39 1 2023-2025 26.00/26.50/27.00 31.00%/32.00%/32.00%2 19.49%8.85%7.95%16.71%9.61%8.53%52.33%48.65%58.33%54.29%52.63%53.33%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3%1.040.90.780.720.560.620.850.740.620.580.45 0.4400.20.40.60.811.22017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Q3 002121 2009 1210 18 2022 2023-2025 11.00/20.00/40.00 12.00%/13.00%/14.00%2023-2025 30.00/45.50/72.00 20.00%/21.00%/22.00%3“”2023-2025 2.50/2.00/1.50 2023-2025 10.00%40 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 24.51 25.23 26.00 26.50 27.00-1.72%2.97%3.03%1.92%1.89%28.35%30.98%31.00%32.00%32.00%17.56 17.42 17.94 18.02 18.36 2.33 6.94-39.19%197.31%37.17%14.05%1.47 5.96 11.00 20.00 40.00 66.67%100.00%12.00%13.00%14.00%10.56 17.40 34.40 30.00 45.50 72.00 50.00%60.00%20.00%21.00%22.00%24.00 35.95 56.16 3.14 2.72 2.50 2.00 1.50-17.29%-13.41%-8.07%-20.00%-25.00%17.01%5.64%10.00%10.00%10.00%2.61 2.57 2.25 1.80 1.35 Wind 002121 2009 1210 19 2023-2025 2.48 6.68 12.36 PE 48 18 10 24 24 PE 9.6 41 2023 6 21 PE 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 688248.SH 221 2.06 5.01 8.25 12.05 107 44 27 18 300693.SZ 115 2.24 3.48 5.16 7.36 51 33 22 16 603063.SH 122 2.67 4.47 5.99 7.52 46 27 20 16 300068.SZ 159 3.31 8.74 12.89 17.91 48 18 12 9 PE 63 31 20 15 002121.SZ 120-1.01 2.48 6.68 12.36-119 48 18 10 Wind-1.01 2.48 6.68 12.36-119 48 18 10 002121 2009 1210 20 Table_ValuationModels2 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 1,118 663 917 1,308 3,539 6,950 9,400 14,050 98 222 345 460 2,605 5,387 7,316 11,027 1,366 2,433 3,674 5,505 29 57 75 112 23 129 151 231 334 343 377 415 1,159 2,187 2,830 4,272 254 312 343 378 0 0 0 0 234 421 377 542 461 1,575 1,735 2,496 314 188 166 154 4,225 7,209 9,650 14,272-81-20-20-20 158 166 191 215-191-40-40-40 442 217 236 258-50-10-10-10 1,023 1,044 654 907 358 100 100 100 1,230 1,300 1,572 1,643 36 20 20 20 463 517 475 448-148 302 804 1,483 1,256 1,438 1,546 1,659 16 5 5 5 4,573 4,681 4,673 5,130 42 10 10 10 8,797 11,890 14,323 19,402-175 297 799 1,478 2,954 2,200 2,000 1,800-55 36 96 177 271 970 1,248 1,844-119 261 703 1,301 1,766 3,858 5,297 7,910-18 13 35 65 0 0 0 0-101 248 668 1,236 726 1,251 1,459 2,199 NOPLAT 95 427 850 1,436 727 800 800 800 EPS()-0.06 0.15 0.40 0.74 658 600 500 400 150 138 171 221 7,252 9,816 11,476 15,174 2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 219 200 220 242 510 500 500 500 10.7%96.4%35.3%49.5%123 123 123 123 EBIT 140.3%247.2%99.1%69.0%851 823 843 865 84.8%345.2%169.1%84.9%8,103 10,639 12,318 16,039 649 1,149 1,817 3,052 26.4%22.5%22.2%21.5%45 102 188 311-3.4%3.8%7.5%9.3%694 1,251 2,004 3,364 ROE-15.6%21.6%36.8%40.5%8,797 11,890 14,323 19,402 ROIC 5.4%16.7%28.8%38.8%92.1%89.5%86.0%82.7%2022A 2023E 2024E 2025E 643.2%289.7%166.8%91.1%444 533 495 1,207 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 367 617 1,061 1,603 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7-440-1,028-643-1,442 297-1,256-1,345-1,988 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7-21 2,863 1,718 3,209 141 98 117 118 240-663-296-175 240 188 225 216-39-300 116-473 130 112 123 116-16-312-32-444()-303 225-19-23-0.06 0.15 0.40 0.74 281-214 166-6 0.27 0.32 0.30 0.73 45-687-357-342 0.39 0.69 1.09 1.84 452-840-280-278-266-158-129-118 P/E-119 48 18 10 0 0 0 0 P/B 19 11 7 4-140 311 52 53 EV/EBITDA 53 25 14 9 002121 2009 1210 21/2022 5 2 2022 2022 2 2022 1 2 2022 2022 2022 002121 2009 1210 22 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 002121 2009 1210 23 A 300 500/6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%“”“”26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522
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