资源描述
2009 1210 2023 05 29 GGII 2022 688.7+95.6%294.6GWh+90.7%2022-2025 CAGR 29%2025-2030 CAGR 22%2025 2030 632 1707 GWh 2025 76.9 2030 419.8 5-7 2026/2025 364 2030 1309 2009 18 2013-2022 214 4.2 88/98%85-90%+3500 2025-2027 S0360522050001%()459 0.06()45,578.56 4.83()36,330.99 5.07%1M 6M 12M-7.6%-11.4%-13.0%-3.3%-15.1%-11.6%2023-05-21 20230515-20230521 2023-05-21 20230515-20230521 2023-05-21-16%-6%5%15%22/05 22/08 22/10 22/12 23/03 23/052022-05-272023-05-26 300 2009 1210 5-7 2025 2030 632 1707 GWh 76.9 419.8 2025 364 2030 1309 18/+2009 1210 3.6.6.7 2025 364 2030 1309.11.15.16.19&.22.24.29.29.30 1.30 2+.34.39.40 2009 1210 4 1.6 2.6 3.6 4 2022 655GWh.7 5+2022 93%.7 6 2016-2030/.8 7 2016-2030/.8 8.9 9.9 10 2022-2030E.10 11.10 12.11 13/.11 14.12 15.12 16/.12 17.13 18 1 2022-2030E.13 19 2 2022-2030E.14 20 3 2022-2030E.14 21+/&.15 22.16 23.17 24 Li-Cycle.18 25 Li-Cycle.18 26 Li-Cycle.18 27.19 28.19 29.21 30 Li-Cycle.22 31.22 32&.23 33.24 2009 1210 5 34.25 35 2022 4.2.27 36 80.27 37%.28 38.28 39.28 40 20.5%.28 41 99.5%.28 42.29 43.30 44.32 45.32 46.33 47.35 48.36 49.36 50.36 51.37 52.37 53.38 2009 1210 6 LIBs 1990 Sony 1 20 25%25 30%14 19%PP/PE 5%)10 16%LiPF6 10 15%2 3 88-89wt.%7-8wt.%3-4wt.%10-20 LiFePO 4 LFP LiCoO 2 LCO LiNi xMn yCo 1-x-yO 2 NCM LiNi xCo yAl 1-x-yO 2 NCA 88-90wt.%4-5wt.%6-7wt.%7-15 2009 1210 7 LiPF 6 LiBF 4 SEI GGII 2022 655GWh+100.3%2022 73%4 2022 655GWh 5+2022 93%GGII GGII 2022 688.7+95.6%Frost&Sullivan 294.6GWh+90.7%2022-2025 CAGR 29%2025-2030 CAGR 22%2025 632 GWh 2030 1707 GWh 811021171433276550%50%100%150%02004006008002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022锂 离 子 电 池 出货量（GWh）增 速（右 轴）动 力电 池73%储能电池20%其他7%2009 1210 8 6 2016-2030/Wind EVTank 7 2016-2030/Frost&Sullivan 8-10 80%5-7 70-80%40%4000 2000-10%40%90%140%190%0100020003000400050006000国 内新能 源汽车 销量（万辆）全 球新能 源汽车 销量（万辆）国 内新能 源汽车 销量增 速（右 轴）全 球新能 源汽车 销量增 速（右 轴）0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%0500100015002000250030003500国 内 动 力 电 池装机 量（GWh）全 球 动 力 电 池装机 量（GWh）国 内动力 电池装 机量增 速（右 轴）全 球动力 电池装 机量增 速（右 轴）2009 1210 9 8 9 1 2022-2025 CAGR 29%2025-2030 CAGR 22%2 30%70%3/4 1/3 3 5 55%45%2 2025 76.9 2030 419.8 2009 1210 10 10 2022-2030E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E GWh 294.6 383.0 494.0 632.4 796.8 988.0 1205.4 1446.5 1706.8 176.8 229.8 296.4 379.4 478.1 592.8 723.2 867.9 1024.1 37%35%32%30%30%30%30%30%30%66.3 80.4 94.9 113.8 143.4 177.8 217.0 260.4 307.2 21.3 24.0 30.9 44.7 63.8 80.5 96.4 117.4 145.0 63%65%68%70%70%70%70%70%70%110.5 149.4 201.6 265.6 334.7 415.0 506.3 607.5 716.9 45%4.6 5.7 6.7 21.6 49.7 67.2 90.7 119.5 150.6 2.3 2.9 4.6 5.7 6.7 21.6 49.7 67.2 90.7 55%5.6 7.0 8.2 26.4 60.8 82.1 110.9 146.1 184.1 29.2 33.9 43.6 76.9 131.2 184.3 257.0 330.7 419.8 40%Li Co Ni Mn 11/LiPF6/LiBF4/LiAsF6 HF P2O5/CO CO2 PP/PE CO PVDF/VDF HF 2009 1210 11 2025 364 2030 1309/12 13/kg%kg%600 60.0%682.29 68.2%240 24.0%210 21.0%60 6.0%40 4.0%19.99 2.0%19.99 2.0%44.6 4.5%17 1.7%2.55 0.3%3.65 0.4%32.8 3.3%27.01 2.7%0.01 0.001%0.01 0.001%0.05 0.005%0.05 0.005%1000 100%1000 100%88-89wt.%7-8wt.%3-4wt.%2009 1210 12/60%24%32.1%20%68.2%21%39%88-89 wt.%24%14 15 1/2 24%20%3 14 15 3 2025/19.4 4.9 4.4 12.2 20.3 2030 61.9 13.6 12.2 44.6 93.3 3.5/4/0.5/20/1.5/2025 364 2022-2025 CAGR 31.8%2030 1309 2025-2030 CAGR 29.2%16/Li 6.9 P 31.0 Ni 58.7 S 32.1 Co 58.9 C 12.0 Mn 54.9 NiSO 154.8 O 16.0 CoSO 155.0 Al 27.0 MnSO 151.0 隔膜纸,3.4%电解液,26.6%碳纳米管,0.0%铝箔,7.1%铜箔,10.8%正 极磷酸铁锂,32.1%负 极石墨,17.1%乙炔黑,1.1%导电石墨,0.4%PVDF,1.1%CMC,0.3%正极材料,39%负极材料,20%铜箔,13%铝箔,5%电解液,15%隔膜,2%其他,6%2009 1210 13 Fe 55.8 Li CO 73.9 17 Li Ni Co Mn Al FePO4 LiFePO4 LiFePO4 157.8 4%-96%NCM111 LiNi1/3Co1/3Mn1/3O2 96.5 7%20%20%19%-NCM523 LiNi0.5Co0.2Mn0.3O2 96.6 7%30%12%17%-NCM622 LiNi0.6Co0.2Mn0.2O2 96.9 7%36%12%11%-NCM811 LiNi0.8Co0.1Mn0.1O2 97.3 7%48%6%6%-LiNiCoAlO2 LiNi0.8Co0.15Al0.05O2 96.1 7%49%9%-1%-18 1 2022-2030E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E GWh 294.6 383.0 494.0 632.4 796.8 988.0 1205.4 1446.5 1706.8 176.8 229.8 296.4 379.4 478.1 592.8 723.2 867.9 1024.1 66.3 80.4 94.9 113.8 143.4 177.8 217.0 260.4 307.2 111 2.1%1.9%1.7%1.5%1.3%1.1%0.9%0.7%0.5%523 41.0%39.0%37.0%35.0%33.0%32.0%31.0%30.0%29.0%622 16.0%15.0%14.0%13.0%12.0%11.0%10.0%9.0%8.0%811 38.9%41.0%43.0%44.9%46.7%47.5%48.2%48.8%49.4%NCA 2.0%3.1%4.3%5.6%7.0%8.4%9.9%11.5%13.1%110.5 149.4 201.6 265.6 334.7 415.0 506.3 607.5 716.9 5.1 5.8 7.4 10.7 15.3 19.3 23.1 28.2 34.8 111 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 523 2.9 3.2 3.6 4.7 6.2 7.5 8.5 9.8 11.5 622 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.8 2.4 2.9 3.2 3.6 4.1 811 0.4 0.8 2.0 3.8 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.7 16.2 NCA 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.6 2.5 1.6 2.0 2.6 6.4 13.5 20.8 32.1 42.7 55.0 45%0.9 1.1 1.3 4.3 9.9 13.4 18.1 23.9 30.1 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.3 4.3 9.9 13.4 18.1 55%1.1 1.4 1.6 5.3 12.2 16.4 22.2 29.2 36.8 2.3 2.3 3.4 5.6 9.0 12.2 16.3 20.7 26.1 4.4 5.1 7.1 10.7 15.6 19.9 24.1 29.8 37.3 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.9 4.0 4.9 5.8 6.9 8.4 2009 1210 14 1.0 1.1 1.5 2.1 3.0 3.8 4.6 5.5 6.9 0.0 0.5 2.4 6.1 12.9 19.8 30.7 40.8 52.5 19 2 2022-2030E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 64.0 83.2 107.3 137.4 173.1 214.6 261.9 314.2 370.8 111 2.1%1.9%1.7%1.5%1.3%1.1%0.9%0.7%0.5%523 41.0%39.0%37.0%35.0%33.0%32.0%31.0%30.0%29.0%622 16.0%15.0%14.0%13.0%12.0%11.0%10.0%9.0%8.0%811 38.9%41.0%43.0%44.9%46.7%47.5%48.2%48.8%49.4%NCA 2.0%3.1%4.3%5.6%7.0%8.4%9.9%11.5%13.1%111.0 144.3 187.6 242.0 309.7 390.3 484.0 590.4 708.5 3.2 4.2 5.4 6.9 8.7 10.7 13.1 15.7 18.5 111 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 523 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.9 3.4 4.1 4.7 5.4 622 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 811 1.2 1.7 2.3 3.1 4.0 5.1 6.3 7.7 9.2 NCA 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.4 5.6 7.2 9.4 12.1 15.5 19.5 24.2 29.5 35.4 2.5 3.3 4.2 5.5 6.9 8.7 10.7 12.9 15.4 3.2 4.3 5.6 7.3 9.3 11.6 14.3 17.3 20.6 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.6 3.1 3.7 4.3 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.8 3.4 3.9 4.5 5.3 6.9 9.0 11.6 14.8 18.7 23.1 28.2 33.9 20 3 2022-2030E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E GWh 294.6 383.0 494.0 632.4 796.8 988.0 1205.4 1446.5 1706.8 176.8 229.8 296.4 379.4 478.1 592.8 723.2 867.9 1024.1 8.8 11.5 14.8 19.0 23.9 29.6 36.2 43.4 51.2 3.3 4.0 4.7 5.7 7.2 8.9 10.8 13.0 15.4 5.5 7.5 10.1 13.3 16.7 20.7 25.3 30.4 35.8 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.7 2.1 2.6 3.1 3.7 111 2.1%1.9%1.7%1.5%1.3%1.1%0.9%0.7%0.5%523 41.0%39.0%37.0%35.0%33.0%32.0%31.0%30.0%29.0%622 16.0%15.0%14.0%13.0%12.0%11.0%10.0%9.0%8.0%2009 1210 15 811 38.9%41.0%43.0%44.9%46.7%47.5%48.2%48.8%49.4%NCA 2.0%3.1%4.3%5.6%7.0%8.4%9.9%11.5%13.1%1.1 1.5 2.0 2.7 3.3 4.1 5.1 6.1 7.2 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.6 3.1 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.8 2.3 2.8 3.4 4.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.9 2.5 3.2 4.0 4.8 5.8 6.9 21+/&2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 8.5 10.4 13.8 19.4 26.7 33.8 41.3 50.5 61.9 2.7 3.1 3.7 4.9 6.5 8.0 9.5 11.4 13.6 2.3 2.7 3.4 4.4 5.8 7.2 8.6 10.2 12.2 5.4 6.3 8.6 12.2 17.4 22.7 29.2 36.2 44.6 6.4 8.9 13.3 20.3 30.9 42.5 58.7 74.8 93.3 159.0 189.7 256.5 364.1 515.9 671.2 858.4 1064.6 1309.0 3.5/4/0.5/20/1.5/DESs DESs+/2009 1210 16 P204 P507/22 NaCl/2009 1210 17 23 1 Umicore Toxco 2 99%X X 12/2009 1210 18-24 Li-Cycle Li-Cycle 25 Li-Cycle 26 Li-Cycle Li-Cycle Li-Cycle 3&+2009 1210 19 27 28 1 HCl H 2SO 4 HNO 3 H 3PO 4 2009 1210 20 Cl 2 H 2O 2 H 2O 2 Al 2 pH pH Ni Co Mn Li Cu Al Fe P204 P507 pH Co Ni Mn Co Ni P204 P507 2009 1210 21 29 2009 1210 22 30 Li-Cycle Li-Cycle&50%SMM 18000/5900/11300/23900/29300/38000/6000/14400/44000/52400/31 18000 75.3%18000 61.4%38000 86.4%38000 72.5%0 0.0%3500 11.9%0 0.0%6000 11.5%900 3.8%1500 5.1%1000 2.3%1500 2.9%1200 5.0%1500 5.1%1200 2.7%1800 3.4%500 2.1%1000 3.4%500 1.1%1000 1.9%2009 1210 23 700 2.9%900 3.1%700 1.6%1000 1.9%100 0.4%200 0.7%100 0.2%200 0.4%500 2.1%700 2.4%500 1.1%900 1.7%2000 8.4%2000 6.8%2000 4.5%2000 3.8%12900 23900 29300 44000 52400 60%32.1%88-89%10.8%98%90%95%63.5kg 35.9kg 154.8kg 1.7/68.2%39%88-89%13%98%98%98%98%85%86.9kg 123.4293.6kg 36.8123.6kg 35.8120.4kg 84.985.7kg 4.2-4.5/32&kg/kg 98%63.5 68.0 4318.3 17263.5 90%35.9 300.0 10778.0 95%154.8 14.0 2167.3 NCM111 98%86.9 68.0 5908.3 42509.3 98%123.4 42.0 5181.3 98%123.6 40.0 4942.3 98%120.4 6.5 782.4 95%85.7 300.0 25695.0 NCM523 98%86.9 68.0 5908.3 43009.0 98%184.9 42.0 7764.5 98%74.1 40.0 2962.5 98%108.2 6.5 703.5 95%85.6 300.0 25670.3 NCM622 98%86.9 68.0 5908.3 44178.6 98%221.0 42.0 9281.3 98%73.8 40.0 2951.0 2009 1210 24 98%71.9 6.5 467.2 95%85.2 300.0 25570.8 NCM811 98%86.9 68.0 5908.3 45420.1 98%293.6 42.0 12330.3 98%36.8 40.0 1470.2 98%35.8 6.5 232.7 95%84.9 300.0 25478.5 2022 22 70-80%200%33 SMM 22 SMM 1 2008 2009 1210 25 2 BCI 3 1994 2009 2015 2015-2018 2018 34 2009.6 2016.1 2015 2017.1 2018.2 2018.3 2018.7 2019.11 2019.12 2009 1210 26 2020.7 2021.8 2021.9()2022.2 2022.11 2021 47%2000-3000 6000-10000 2021 2022 10 11 62 2023 1 2013-2022 214 4.2 2018-2022 80 2009 1210 27 35 2022 4.2 36 80 2022 2022 SMM 100%100%200%2022 12 60/1972254045512563242038010000200003000040000500002018 2019 2020 2021 2022中 国动力 电池相 关企业 注册量（家）522204101020304050第 一批 第 二批 第 三批 第 四批企 业数量（家）2009 1210 28 37%Wind 38 39 Wind Wind 40 20.5%41 99.5%Wind Wind 2026 100%05101520253035402019/1 2019/7 2020/1 2020/7 2021/1 2021/7 2022/1 2022/7格 林美 光 华科技 天 奇股份0100002000030000400005000060000700002021/10 2022/3 2022/8 2023/1电 池 级 硫 酸 镍价格（元/吨）0200040006000800010000120002018/1 2019/7 2021/1 2022/7电 池 级 硫 酸 锰前驱 体价格（元/吨）0500001000001500002018/1 2019/7 2021/1 2022/720.5%硫酸钴价格（元/吨）01000002000003000004000005000006000002018/1 2019/7 2021/1 2022/799.5%电池级碳酸锂价格（元/吨）2009 1210 29 42 Model S Model X 8 24 70%Model 3 Model Y 8 16 70%Model 3 Model 3 Performance Model Y Model Y Performance 8 19.2 70%1;2:3 12 3 2018 4 88 2023 2009 1210 30 8/-6 2 2023 2024 75%43/1 5000 2009 1210 31 3D&1 PACK 2023 4.06 10 2.1 2025 42.54%22.73%2009 1210 32 44 2 3C-670 45 2009 1210 33 2022 1.74 2.1GWh+98.11%10%27 95%3 2021 2022 PVDF 46 2009 1210 34 11 2+85-90%2019 98%85%97%98%85%90%10%80%10%90%10%95%MVR 1g/L g/L MVR 1 MVR 9000+MVR+MVR MVR+2009 1210 35 1 1967 47/13.5 9 1.6 1 2 3 4 2023 2 135m3/h 6.5 9555 2 BHP CODELCO Glencore Freeport-McMoRan SCCO 2009 1210 36 48 3500 2025-2027 300 7200 2025-2028 49 50 2009 1210 37 51 3500 300 7200 4000 2025 2100 90 2160-2026 2800 150 3600-2027 3500 210 5040-2028-300 7200-TBP 3 30 200 52 2009 1210 38 10 5/7.8 26 PNN Anson 4 1997+53 2009 1210 39 6 1000/EPC SDLA 2500t/a 5000t/a 2000/BOT GGII 2022 688.7+95.6%294.6GWh+90.7%2022-2025 CAGR 29%2025-2030 CAGR 22%2025 632 GWh 2030 1707 GWh 5-7 2026/2025 364 2030 1309 2009 18 2013-2022 214 4.2 88/98%85-90%2009 1210 40+3500 2025-2027 1 2 3 4 2009 1210 41 4 6 2022 2019 2021 2 2022 2 2022 2022 2022 2022 2023 2009 1210 42 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-63214682 010-66500808 010-66500821 010-63214682 0755-82828570 0755-83715428 0755-82756804 0755-82871425 0755-83024576 0755-82871425 021-20572536 021-20572555 021-20572257-2552 021-20572506 021-20572585 021-20572560 021-20572509 021-20572548 021-20572573 0755-82756805 021-20572559 021-20572559 0755-82756805 021-20572559 玙 021-25072549 2009 1210 43(300)6 20%6 10%20%6-10%10%6 10%20%3-6 5%3-6-5%5%3-6 5%26 C 3A 1061 A 19 33 12 100033 518034 200120 010-66500801 0755-82027731 021-20572500 010-66500900 0755-82828562 021-20572522
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