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2023 02 21 CAPEX 好 于预期+AIGC 拉动算力，成 长 性有 望 更乐 观 中 兴通讯 深度报告 ICT/AIGC:()2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E-31%-25%-18%-12%-5%1%22/0222/0322/0422/0522/0722/0822/0922/1022/1122/1223/0123/02 1)2)1)2)1“”.5.2.7.3.10.4.15.5.17 .1“”1.1 ICT 1 1.2 2 1.3 3 1.4 4 5 2 2.1 CAPEX 1 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 5818 5841 6234 6684 6709 6744 6957 7514 2135 1956 1873 1775 1671 1659 1806 1836 yoy 15.5%-8.4%-4.2%-5.2%-5.9%-0.7%8.9%1.7%36.7%33.5%30.0%26.6%24.9%24.6%26.0%24.4%2874 2933 3096 3310 3504 3576 3738 4028 769 1091 968 887 749 776 848 867 yoy-3.9%41.9%-11.3%-8.4%-15.6%3.6%9.3%2.2%26.8%37.2%31.3%26.8%21.4%21.7%22.7%21.5%2449 2353 2410 2490 2637 2644 2758 2962 849 1339 721 421 449 564 676 690 yoy 15.5%57.7%-46.2%-41.6%6.7%25.6%19.9%2.1%34.7%56.9%29.9%16.9%17.0%21.3%24.5%23.3%6 2.2 7 349 482 398 350 10913217327945.1%56.8%45.9%37.7%14.0%15.6%19.9%30.0%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%01002003004005006002019 2020 2021 2022E移动网络投资，亿元 产业数字化投资，亿元移动网络投资占比 产业数字化占比10.1%12.9%16.1%15.5%17.3%17.3%17.4%0%5%10%15%20%2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021公司运营商网络份额 8 9 10 2.3 11 3 3.1 12 3.2 13 14 3.3 AIGC 15 16 17 18 19 20 3.4 21 5G 22 23 24 赟 25 AIGC 2 2021-2022 1 2.33 50%3 0.33 30%1.26 10.9%2022 1 3.06 18%26 4 4.1 3 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 74018 75712 83272 89813 94913 yoy 11.2%2.3%10.0%7.9%5.7%33.8%42.5%42.9%43.3%43.5%16160 25731 31099 37712 45063 yoy 7.8%59.2%20.9%21.3%19.5%23.6%18.2%19.0%19.5%20.0%11272 13079 16914 22247 28937 yoy 23.1%16.0%29.3%31.5%30.1%28.8%27.1%27.5%28.0%28.3%101450 114522 131285 149772 168912 yoy 11.8%12.9%14.6%14.1%12.8%31.6%35.2%35.3%35.0%34.6%4.2 27 4 2021 2021 EPS-22E EPS-23E EPS-24E PE-TTM PE-22E PE-23E PE-24E 000938 701 676 21.48 0.85 1.05 1.28 32.07 28.75 23.29 19.17 301165 236 92 4.58 0.99 1.32 1.78 47.52 42.07 31.34 23.23 600498 191 263 2.88 0.27 0.39 0.51 62.46 59.48 41.50 31.56 47.35 43.43 32.04 24.65 000063 1428 1145 68.13 1.75 2.06 2.37 18.36 17.21 14.66 12.75 4.3 5 1 2 3 Table_ThreeForcast 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E()
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