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2023 2023 2 13 S1060520090001 ZHONGZHENGSHENG S1060523010001 FANCHENGKAI 2023 6-9 5%2023 2010 YCC YCC 2023 10 3.5%3%2/28 1970-80 2023 2023 100 2023 2023 80-85/3/28.6.10.11“”.13.15.18.20.22.24 4/28 1.6 2“”2023.6 3 2023.7 4.8 5.8 6.8 7 2023 1 400.9 8.9 9.9 10“”50%.9 11 1980-82“”.10 12 2010“”.10 13 2022Q3 1.3%.11 14 2022 6%.11 15 2023 2010.12 16“”.12 17.13 18.13 19.13 20.13 21 2022 9 10 YCC.14 22 CPI.14 23 YCC.14 24 CPI.15 25 2023 CPI 2%.15 26.16 27.16 28 2022.16 29 2022.16 30 2022-23.17 31 2022.18 32.18 33 1978 6.19 34 1980.19 35 2023 10.19 36.20 5/28 37.20 38 1970-80.20 39 1981-82.21 40 2023.21 41 1980“”.21 42 2023.22 43“”2023Q1.22 44.23 45.23 46.23 47 10.23 48 2022 11.24 49 2022 11-12“”.24 50.24 51 2020.25 52 EIA 2023.25 53.25 54 2022.25 55.26 56.26 57 2022.26 6/28 2023 2023 2023 NBER 6-9 2023 2020 1980 2022 4.5 2023 1980-82 10 2022 1 2022 GDP NBER 2 10y-2y 10y-3m 2022 7 10 1980 3 PMI ISM PMI 2022 11 50 PMI 1990 1990 PMI 1 2023 2001 1 2 2023 Wind,Wind,(2)(1)0123451976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021NBER 10y-2y 10y-3m%-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.5 30405060701990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020%ISM PMI(1,)7/28 2022 2022 2023 GDP 0-1%CPI 3%4-5%5%2023 2 IMF 1 2023 0.4 1.4%GDP 1 2 3 4 3 2023 GDP 1.1%PCE 2.9%3 5-5.25%1.0%-2 4.75-5%0.5%CPI 2.4%1 4.5-4.75%0.5%PCE 2.5%0.4%CPI 4.0%0.4%CPI 4.7%-0%-Q1 Q2-0.1%CPI 3.9%,2.5%2 5-5.25%3 4.25-4.5%-1.3%CPI 2.2%4.5%3.5-3.75%,GDP 2023 1 10 2023 GDP 2022 2.0%0.2%4.5%PCE/PCE 2.8%4.75-5%GDP 2022 2023 NBER 8/28 4 5 Wind,Wind,6 2023Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2022 2023 2024 GDP 0.6 1.7 0.5 1.1 2.0 0.2 1.7 GDP(Y/Y)1.0 0.7 0.2 0.4 2.0 0.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.6 6.5 0.9 1.0 0.4 1.5 0.4 0.4 2.8 0.5 1.5 10.0 10.0 5.0 1.0 10.6 14.9 0.3 1.7 4.0 1.5 1.9 3.9 0.3 2.4(bln$,)2.0 8.0 20.0 0.0 92.0 7.0 3.8 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.7 0.7 2.2 2.5 2.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 7.4 1.8 1.2 1.0 1.7 0.4 2.5 8.3 1.6 1.8(%)3.5 3.7 4.2 4.5 3.6 4.0 4.3(%)62.3 62.2 62.0 61.8 62.2 62.1 61.8 PCE(%Y/Y)4.6 3.6 3.2 2.8 6.2 3.5 2.2 PCE(%Y/Y)4.0 3.6 3.1 2.8 5.0 3.4 2.2(,)4.875 4.875 4.875 4.875 4.375 4.875 3.375:The Conference Board 2023.1.10,(%)2023 1 440 2015-19+110 330 3/4 1948 GDP GDP 5.4%7.57.77.98.18.38.58.78.99.14.04.55.05.56.015-03 16-05 17-07 18-09 19-11 21-01 22-03 GDP,:()0.50.60.60.70.70.82.22.32.42.52.62.72.82.93.015-03 16-05 17-07 18-09 19-11 21-01 22-03 GDP,:()9/28 7 2023 1 400 8 Wind,Wind,2023 OECD 2017-2022 CPI 50%9 10 50%Wind,OECD,PCE-NBER 6-9 Q1-Q3 GDP Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 1351401451501551601651702000 2005 2010 2015 2020+442万人24681012-10-5 0 5 10 15%GDP%美国实际GDP 季度同比vs失业率（1948-2022Q3）(1)1357921-01 21-04 21-07 21-10 22-01 22-04 22-07 22-10%CPI:0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%-10123456717-01 17-10 18-07 19-04 20-01 20-10 21-07 22-04%CPI+:()10/28 Q3 Q4 2023 2 25BP 2021-22 2022 8 1970-80 1974-76 1980-82 1980 2008 2010 11 1980-82 12 2010 Wind,Wind,3579111315174 6 8 10 12CPI%1970.1-1971.31974.12-1976.111980.3-1982.11-202468103 4 5 6 7 8 9 10CPI%(2010.1-2022.12)11/28 2023 5%4%1.5%2022 1.3%2.5%1-30 5%2022 11 5-7%2022 11 QT 2022 12 4.25%6%13 2022Q3 1.3%14 2022 6%,2023 5 5 pivot 2%2%PCE/PCE 2-3 0.2%3.8%4.5%2023 2023 2010 2023 2022 11 2023 2 10 4%10 2022 4 2022 1.3 0.00.51.01.52.02010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022%()4.16.2(2)(1)012345672010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022%(Proxy Fund Rate)12/28 1 2010 2020 2022 2023 60%3%2010 Doomed Loop 20%15 2023 2010 16 Wind,Wind,2023 2 3%3 50BP 3.5%3 4.75%2022 12 HICP CPI 2.7+2011 2011 ESM 2022 7 TPI 2022 8-10 6 TPI TPI 2012 OMT 050100150200%:GDP 2023E2010(4)(2)024682011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021%GDP 13/28 17 18 Wind,Wind,2022 IEA 2022 12 2023 570 14.4%270 OPEC 2022 11 LNG 30%19 20 Wind,OECD(2022.11),2011 2023 YCC YCC(2)(1)0123456782005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023%10:10:欧债危机加息加息(2)0246810120123456789102008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022%HICP()SMP宣布OMT 政策PSPPPSPP+PEPP宣布TPI 政策01002003004005006007001.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.022-01 22-03 22-05 22-07 22-09 22-11 23-01/%10 IPE()-30-20-10010203040506070809010022-11 23-02 23-05 23-08 23-11 24-02%LNG 14/28 YCC 2022 12 YCC 10 0.25%0.5%2022 9 10 0.25%YCC 21 2022 9 10 YCC:Wind,2023 YCC 2022 12 CPI 4.0%1980 1 26 IMF YCC 1 18 YYC 10 10 0.5%1 31 11.5%7.4 79.5%22 CPI 23 YCC Wind,Wind,1051101151201251301351401451501550.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.350.400.450.500.550.6022-01 22-02 22-03 22-04 22-05 22-06 22-07 22-08 22-09 22-10 22-11 22-12 23-01 23-02%YCC(0.25)YCC(0.5)10()(2)(1)0123452012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022%:CPI:CPI:50052054056058060066068070072074076021-01 21-05 21-09 22-01 22-05 22-09 23-01 x 10000 x 10000:()15/28 2022 12 CPI 1%7.1%15.2%2023 CPI 2%2022 2023 4 YCC YCC 24 CPI 25 2023 CPI 2%Wind,BOJ(2023.1),2023 2023 2022 2023 2023 MSCI(10)(5)051015202010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022%CPI 16/28 26 27 Wind,Wind,2022 IIF 2022 337 2021 3796 90%2015-19 2512 80%2023 2023 2000 2015-19 500%2023 2022 1-10 MSCI 9.0%11 2023 2 8.8%2022 4 28 2022 29 2022 IIF,Wind,IMF 1 2023 GDP 3.4%2.9%GDP 0.1 4.0%2023 2.8 2013 IMF 2023 CPI 3.5 2021 2022 2023 01234560080010001200140010 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23MSCI:()%2018 2019 2022-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22年涨幅MSCI:500 84515833877263836183829 37963370100020003000400050002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022IIF:150015501600165017001750180022-01 22-03 22-05 22-07 22-09 22-11 23-01MSCI 17/28 30 2022-23 2022 年 GDP增速(%)2023 年 GDP增速(%)2015-19 年GDP 增速均值(%)2022 年 CPI同比均值(%)2022 年制造业 PMI 均值 2022 年 12月制造业PMI 2022 年 12月出口累计同比(%)3.0 5.2 6.7 2.0 49.1 47.0 7.0 3.1 1.7 2.0 7.9 49.6 51.3 15.1 7.0 6.2 7.0 3.1 51.7 46.4 6.8 5.4 4.4 4.9 3.3 49.8 47.8 19.7 5.0 3.0 4.2 72.0 48.2 48.1 16.9 2.8 3.7 3.4 6.1 52.3 52.5 13.4 3.1 1.2-0.5 5.8 50.5 44.2-0.4 5.3 5.0 5.0 4.2 51.6 50.9 17.8 6.8 6.1 6.6 6.7 55.2 57.8 21.7 2.6 1.2 0.9 7.0 53.1 50.4 14.8-2.2 0.3 1.0 13.8 50.4 53.0 12.8 4.0 2.0-0.2 70.7 19.6 1.4 1.8 0.9 2.5 52.1 48.9 4.4 1.9 0.1 1.7 7.9 51.8 47.1 1.0 2.0 1.4 2.4 8.0 53.4 46.2 1.2 3.7 0.7 2.0 8.4 52.1 47.8 3.9 4.0 3.4 6.0 51.0 49.9 13.2 3.4 2.9 3.4 51.8 48.6:Wind,IMF(2023.1),2023 GDP IMF 2022 CPI 2022 15.5%27.2%2023 2023 2023 2 10 7.1%5.1%2022 VN30 30%50%2022 2022 GDP 7.0%IMF 2023 GDP 6.2%2022 SENSEX30 4.4%2022 GDP 6.8%2022 3 11.5%2017-19 6-8%2022 9 25%15%2022Q1-3 25-40%2023 IMF 2023 GDP 6.1%2023 IT 18/28 2022 2022 623 545 2022 IBOVESPA 4.1%4.7%2022 5.5%2023 2022 2021 20%19.8%31 2022 32 Wind,ASEANstats,10 3.5%3%1978 1978 6 NBER 10 132BP 1.3%01020304050%2022 12 2022 6 20%13%11%8%3%1%0%5%10%15%20%25%2021 19/28 33 1978 6:Wind,2023 10 3.5%3%1970-80 10 1981-82 CPI 2%10 1982 CPI 5%10 10 2023 10 34 1980 35 2023 10 Wind,Wind,2023 2022 12 2023 1 2023 2 1 1950/2022 4 1 2 2-3 4.4%1865/2023+1980+0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.016.018.0 0200400600800100012001400160018002000220076 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22NBER 10(,)%美元/盎司%51015201979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985%NBER 10:衰退初期，货币政策不松、美债利率不落01234521-01 21-06 21-11 22-04 22-09 23-02 23-07 23-12%10 可能的衰退区间 20/28 2023 1982 CPI 4%36 37 Wind,Wind,1970-80 2023 1970-80 2022 2022 CPI 6 8 8 10 10 2023 2 2023 38 1970-80:Wind,01234566008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,0002008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022%/:1()-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.0 1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,0002,20019-01 20-01 21-01 22-01 23-01%/10(,)608010012014016018020022002468101214161965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985%CPI 500()21/28 2023 1970-80 NBER 1970 1980 1973-75 1981-82 500 2023 1981-82 39 1981-82 40 2023 Wind,Wind,1970-80 1973-75 1981-82 1980 2023 41 1980:Wind,8010012014016018002468101214161979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984%CPI 500()2,8003,0003,2003,4003,6003,8004,0004,2004,4004,6004,8005,000024681020-01 20-07 21-01 21-07 22-01 22-07 23-01 23-07%CPI 500()0246810121416182060801001201401601802002201965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985%NBER 500()-17%-39%-11%-19%+36%+38%+32%+53%22/28 2023 Goldilocks Economy 2022 12 2023 2 42 2023 43 2023Q1(2023.1),(2023.1),2023 100 2023 2022 2023 1970 2023 2022 12 2023 1 3.7%4.4%6.1%1015202530354019-01 20-01 21-01 22-01 23-01 500 P/E:P/E:?05010015020025019-01 20-01 21-01 22-01 23-01 500 12 EPS:12 EPS:?23/28 44 45 Wind,Wind,1980 1983-84 1982-85 2023 2023 100 10 46 47 10 Wind,Wind,2022 11 2023 60801001201401601803.04.05.06.07.08.09.010.01970 1977 1983 1990 1997 2004 2010 2017%:()60708090100110120130140150(4.0)(3.0)(2.0)(1.0)0.01.02.03.01980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020%IMF GDP:-()501001502002503008590951001051101151202018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023(EPU)30MA()02468101214161860801001201401601801979 1985 1991 1997 2003 2009 2015 2021%:10:()24/28 PMI 2023 YCC 48 2022 11 49 2022 11-12 Wind,Wind,2023 2023 80-85/2023 1980 NBER OPEC 2023 1 2023 2022 220/2022 250/2022 2022 50:Wind,9510010511011512012513013514022-01 22-03 22-05 22-07 22-09 22-11 23-012021.12.31=100(0.5)0.00.51.022-07 22-08 22-09 22-10 22-11 22-12 23-01%2(*10)0204060801001201401979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019/NBER,25/28 2023 2020 2021 EIA 2023 2 2023 110/70/51 2020 52 EIA 2023 Wind,Wind,2022 2014 2020 2014-2021 2022 2022 10 OPEC+2022 11 2023 12 200/OPEC+2020 2 10 3 50/2023 53 54 2022 Wind,IMF,Wind,2021 020040060003 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 051015202590 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22/EIA 0246805010015000 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24/(,):2040608010012008 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22/:26/28 2019 2022 11 2024 55 56 Wind,Wind,2023 80-85/+2010 WTI 60-65/2021 2022 OLS 10 25/2023 15-20/2023 WTI 85 80/57 2022:Wind,05001,0001,5000204060801001201402010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022/WTI:()101001,000204060801001201402015 2017 2019 2021 2023/IPE()900100011001200130014001500 10203040506070809010011012013010 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 WTI WTI(2010-2021 OLS)()(,)/27/28 1 2 3 4 5 6 :6 20%6 10%20%6 10%6 10%:6 5%6 5%6 5%2023 4008866338 5023 B 25 518033 1333 26 200120 9 16 100033
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