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HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN Table_Reportdate 2023 02 23 table_invest Table_NewTitle Table_NewTitle Table_Authors S0630517120001 S0630522020001 S0630521110001 table_stockTrend table_product 1.2023 2.table_main 2016 2022 1035/2021 2022 165%54%-EPS PE 2021A 2022E 2023E 2021A 2022E 2023E 371.85 3.81 5.66 5.95 9.94 5.91 5.62 157.77 0.75 1.72 2.57 32.79 18.28 12.21 215.32 0.58 0.67 0.76 22.70 16.91 14.99 163.07 0.93 1.12 1.51 18.21 11.12 8.28 144.20 1.75 3.05 3.58 12.19 5.27 4.49 433.92 1.98 3.33 3.48 9.90 7.09 6.79 Wind 2023/2/22-34%-27%-20%-13%-6%2%9%22-01 22-04 22-07 22-10:(0722)300 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 2/35 1.5 1.1.5 1.2.7 1.3.8 2.9 2.1.9 2.2.10 2.2.1.10 2.2.2.12 2.3.13 3.14 3.1.14 3.2.15 3.2.1.15 3.2.2.17 3.2.3.19 3.2.4.20 3.2.5.21 3.3.22 3.3.1.22 3.3.2.22 3.3.3.23 4.25 4.1.25 4.2.27 4.2.1.27 4.2.2.29 4.3.30 5.32 6.34 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 3/35 1.5 2.6 3.6 4 30%.7 5 2022.9 6 2015-2021.9 7.9 8.9 9.10 10.11 11.11 12.11 13.13 14.13 15.13 16 IDA.13 17.14 18.14 19 2012-2021.14 20.14 21 2010-2021.15 22.17 23/.17 24 2015-2021.17 25 2015-2021.18 26 2011-2021.18 27 2011-2021.19 28 2010-2021.19 29 2015-2020.19 30 2007-2030 OCP.20 31 2015-2021 OCP.20 32 2015-2021.20 33 2015-2021.20 34 2015-2022.21 35 2015-2020.21 36 1995-2025.22 37 2015-2020.22 38 2000-2019.23 39.23 40.23 41 2003-2019.23 42 2017-2021.24 43 2017-2021.24 44 2008.24 45 2020.24 46 2017-2021.25 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 4/35 47 2015-2022 PPI.25 48.25 49.26 50.26 51.28 52.28 53.28 54.28 55.29 56.29 57.29 58.29 59.30 60 2021.30 61.31 62.31 63.32 64.32.1 1.6 2.8 3 2.12 4.16 5.18 6 2021.21 7 2020.24 8.26 9.27 10 2023-2025.30 11.31 12.34 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 5/35 1.1 60 1.1.2021 710 70%32.4 4.51%81%HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 6/35 2 3 USGS,P2O5 I 30%II 25%-30%III 12%-25%IV 12%P2O5 18%30%9.4%P2O5 7%-14%5.8 1 75%10%-15%摩洛哥 中国 埃及 阿尔及利亚 巴西 南非 其他国家 湖北 云南 贵州 湖南 四川 其他 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 7/35 1.2.40%2000 30%2000 1937 2021 10289.9 2019 2.24 41.66%2017 2017 2021 4 30%2008 2011-2016 2017 2019-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%02000400060008000100001200014000160002000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 8/35 2 2008 2011 2016 24 2017(2017 2025)2025 1000 350 650 300;15/50/2018(2018 2020)2019 2019 1 1 2019 1000;2021 1.3.71%7%22%2016 2020 2016 14415.47 8917.2 38.14%2020 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 9/35 5 2022 6 2015-2021 2021 3 6 30%550/7 30%2021 670/2022 2 1035/2022 9 320/7 8 2.2.1.P4 71%7%22%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%02000400060008000100001200014000160002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 02004006008001000120030%磷矿石价格（湖北，元/吨）0501001502002503003502015-122016-052016-102017-032017-082018-012018-062018-112019-042019-092020-022020-072020-122021-052021-102022-032022-08World Bank 磷矿石价格（美元/吨）HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 10/35 1500 14000 9 2.2.2.2.1.H3PO4 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 11/35 10 60 P2O5 14000/,2000 11 12 60-70 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 12/35 1965 1973 500 P2O5 93%20/6/3 2 P2O530%P2O525%27%-35%75%-85%2.2.2.60 19 18 59 23 5 20%70%-80%HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 13/35 13 14 2.3.IDA IDA IDA IDA IDA 99%IDA 90%IDA IDA 15 16 IDA HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 14/35 3.3.1.2017 2017 196 2021 140.8 2017 80.01 2021 66.37 56%2017 21.74%2018 2019 2020 17 18 43%37%19 2012-2021 20 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%050100150200250 010000200003000040000500006000070000800002017-122018-032018-052018-072018-092018-112019-022019-042019-062019-082019-112020-012020-042020-062020-082020-102020-122021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-022022-042022-062022-082022-11黄磷市场主流价：云南（元/吨）-30.00%-20.00%-10.00%0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%020406080100 43%37%20%HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 15/35 2010 35556.7 2021 100.8 99.72%21 2010-2021 3.2.3.2.1.P2O5 MAP DAP SSP TSP MAP DAP P2O5 1917 2.5 20 60 05000100001500020000250003000035000400002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 16/35 4 14%-18%42%-46%44%-52%42%-46%14%-19%7%-17%30%-42%/22%-33%80%HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 17/35 22 3.2.2.2020 2022 2 10 2022 11 30 2020 70.5%/41.99%/53.44%/34.31%2020 3231.26 3555.69 4.73%1.28%2015 2691.82 3560.83 3.72%-0.03%23/24 2015-2021 Wind Wind 2025 17.5 3.5 6.3 2025 13000 14000 45%39%3%6%7%DAP)MAP TSP 051015200500100015002000/-10%-5%0%5%10%15%010002000300040002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020(HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 18/35 5 2020 2025 17.52 17.5 4.51 4.5 3.51 3.5 6.19 6.3 1.48 1.6 13390 13000 14000 4237 4300 2685 2800 5213 5300 1960 2300 2021 17.64 2019 17.41 1.35%2021 1634.17 2019 1544.37 5.81%25 2015-2021 26 2011-2021 Wind 2015 2020 2020 2015 2019 1%2020 2015 2021 627.15 2015 843.06 25.61%-4.81%2015 1108.16 2021 846.84-4.38%2015 1118.76 2021 787.33-5.69%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%02004006008001000120014002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021-2%-1%-1%0%1%1%2%16.416.616.817.017.217.417.617.818.0 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 19/35 27 2011-2021 Wind 3.2.3.Mosaic 2016 946 2019 818 2022 16.54 2019-0.82 2020 2021 13.05 28 2010-2021 29 2015-2020 OCP OCP 2021 OCP 1500 2007 400 9.9%2030 2500 2015-2020 OCP 2015 420 2020 1130 21.9%-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%01002003004005006007008009002011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021:-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%-5000500100015002000毛利润(百万美元）毛利率（右轴）6.996 6.845 6.339 4.947 5.003 4.936 2.349 2.835 3.121 3.411 3.177 3.598 0246810122015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020DAP/MAP 其他 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 20/35 30 2007-2030 OCP 31 2015-2021 OCP 3.2.4.2008 2015 2021 P2O5 2140/猇 5 P2O574/P2O5 34/1871 2103 2016 2200 2190 14.95%3.97%32 2015-2021 33 2015-2021 2021 150 P2O5 12.9 P2O52.3 P2O5 1149.7 70.9%P2O5690.7 41%0510152025302007 2018 2021 2030Eocp 2.4 3.9 4.6 5.4 6 7.9 6.9 1 1.5 2.4 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.5 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 0246810122015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021DAP/MAP NPS/NPK TSP0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%050010001500200025002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%050010001500200025002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 21/35 6 2021(P2O5 337.1 220 445 244.5 200 420 109.1 100 265 97.7 85 126 93.5 80 110 85.3 80 100 47.3 70 80 45.6 60 64 45.1 60 60 44.6 55 60 2021 3.2.5.2020 253.02 573.22 17.7%32.2%2021 2021 375.8 582.28 48.53%1.58%535.2/509.1/68%54.3%2021 10 2022 194.67 357.91 48.20%38.53%34 2015-2022 35 2015-2020-100%-50%0%50%100%020040060080010002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022MAP（万吨）DAP（万吨）MAP 增速（右轴）DAP 增速（右轴）-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%05001000150020002015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020MAP DAPMAP 增速（右轴）DAP 增速（右轴）HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 22/35 3.3.3.3.1.N-1971 EPSPS NADP 3.3.2.2015 1995-2015 3.5%500 2016 40%240 2025 265 2015-2020 56 2025 78 5 2.8%36 1995-2025 37 2015-2020 2021 2021 20 50%26.46%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%050100150200250300 010203040506070802015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 23/35 38 2000-2019 39 2021 91.04%10/56.4 73.84 1 11 11 71.3%8.96%2%2019 2020 2023 40 41 2003-2019 2021 3.3.3.2020 104/35%2021 73.75 60.56 1.03%8.28%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%050100150200250 26.46%23.85%13.36%13.29%8.39%4.17%10.49%19.27%14.67%11.43%8.96%4.09%3.43%2.51%1.97%1.80%1.73%1.43%28.71%02040608020032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 24/35 42 2017-2021 43 2017-2021 7 2020 IDA 23 7 15.3 4 3 3 3 5 8 37 3 55.3 56 2008 2016 110 2016 2017 79.5 2021 73.75 2017 63.5%2021 82.12%18.62pct 2008 26 CR5 51.46%2021 10 CR5 69.09%44 2008 45 2020-10%-5%0%5%10%15%0204060801002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0%20%40%60%80%100%2017 2018 2019 2020 2021(%)HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 25/35 2021 2021 8.1 2022 46 2017-2021 47 2015-2022 PPI 4.4.1.48 1997 Goodenough 2004 LFP 2008 LFP LFP 020000400006000080000100000/90951001051101151201251302015-012015-062015-112016-042016-092017-022017-072017-122018-052018-102019-032019-082020-012020-062020-112021-042021-092022-022022-07 PPI PPI HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 26/35 100 LFP 2012-2017 LFP 2017 8 10000 NCM11 300 NCM811 220,Ofweek LiFePO4 Li+Li+FeO4 6.81%49 50 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 27/35 1 3000-4000 2 PO4,MO6 M-O 700 200-300 3 Ni Co 4 Ni Co 9 LFP NCM-1 140-160 150-210 3000 1500-2000 4.2.4.2.1.2021-2035 2025 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 28/35 2016 2021 354.5 352.1 157.57%159.52%2608.2 2627.5 13.6%2018 70600MWh 2021 219686.4MWh 46%2022 545881.7MWh 148.48%2025 25.6%51 52 2017-2019 2020 2019 33.44%2020 2021 2022 545881.7MWh 212494.4MWh 332384.7MWh 61%2017 59024 2021 429743.8 64.3%53 54-50%0%50%100%150%200%01002003004002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021-50%0%50%100%150%200%01000002000003000004000005000006000002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 MWh 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%0500001000001500002000002500003000003500002018 2019 2020 2021 2022 MWh MWh 0.00%50.00%100.00%150.00%200.00%250.00%300.00%010203040502017 2018 2019 2020 2021 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 29/35 4.2.2.2017 2020 2021 2025 3000 KW 2017-2021 2017 2.7GW 2021 19.9GW 64.8%2017 1.5%2021 9.7%55 56 2021 46.1GW 39.8GW 86.3%5.2GW 11.2%2017 11GWh 2021 87.2GWh 67.8%2018 21.8%2021 149.1%57 58 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%05101520252017 2018 2019 2020 2021 GWh 抽水蓄能 熔融盐储能 锂离子电池 其他 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%0204060801002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 GWh 0%50%100%150%200%250%01020304050602017 2018 2019 2020 2021 GWh HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 30/35 2021 2017 3.5GWh 2021 48GWh 92.45%2021 2018 48.57%2021 196.3%2020 2021 2025 300 2023/2024/2025 595.5/863.1/1219.5GWh 2025 304.88/292.68 10 2023-2025 2023E 2024E 2025E GWh 805.00 1126.00 1595.00 GWh 150.00 250.00 350.00 60%GWh 483.00 675.60 957.00 75%GWh 112.50 187.50 262.50 GWh 595.50 863.10 1219.50/GWh 0.25 0.25 0.25/GWh 0.24 0.24 0.24 148.88 215.78 304.88 142.92 207.14 292.68 4.3.CR5 70.13%2017 10 2021 81.12 68.8%2017 5.8 2021 42.85 64.87%2017 58%2019 39.32%2020 2021 52.82%59 60 2021 0%20%40%60%80%0204060801002017 2018 2019 2020 2021 25%20.21%8.67%8.54%7.71%6.25%23.60%HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 31/35 2021 2021 16.5 2.24 2021 3.85 1.2 329%86.67%61 62 Wind Wind 11 40-20 20 2022 3 20 20 5 5 50 170 30/30 60 50 50 50/45 35 10 25 30 10 30 60 30 15 5 15/60/20 20 50 50 50 50 0102030402019-04 2020-04 2021-04 2022-04三元材料价格（万元/吨）磷酸铁锂正极材料价格（万元/吨）0.000.501.001.502.002.503.002019-04 2020-04 2021-04 2022-04/HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 32/35 63 64 50%33%14%5.1 8 585 16/23/20/80/38/68/10/36/3/40 2023 20/10/2 36 17 18.15%7.70%74.15%HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 33/35 300 1.77 3.7 160/3 40 60 55 90 350/50/40/4 900/270/200/15/30/15/5 30 1.53 156/126/84/2023 30/20/6 8 1450/618 750 887/555/132/200/50 2023 3 10 2023 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 34/35 12 EPS PE 2021A 2022E 2023E 2021A 2022E 2023E 371.85 3.81 5.66 5.95 9.94 5.91 5.62 157.77 0.75 1.72 2.57 32.79 18.28 12.21 215.32 0.58 0.67 0.76 22.70 16.91 14.99 163.07 0.93 1.12 1.51 18.21 11.12 8.28 144.20 1.75 3.05 3.58 12.19 5.27 4.49 433.92 1.98 3.33 3.48 9.90 7.09 6.79 Wind 2023/2/22 6.1 2 3 HTTP:/WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 35/35 6 300 20%6 300-20%20%6 300 20%6 300 10%6 300-10%10%6 300 10%6 300 15%6 300 5%15%6 300-5%5%6 300 5%15%6 300 15%1928 87 D 15F Http:/Http:/8621 20333619 8610 59707105 8621 50585608 8610 59707100 200215 100089
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