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2023 02 17()S0350522030001 S0350123010003 Table_Title 688556 300 2023/02/17 1M 3M 12M-7.3%-7.9%64.5%300-2.5%5.7%-12.8%2023/02/17 73.55 52 36.45-106.33 16,764.38 12,492.57 22,793.18 16,985.14 121.36%1.64+/+2017-2021 CAGR 42.60%2022 2022 7.6-8.2 340.09%-374.83%2025/108/36 2025/71/22 2025/89/30 2025/58/19 2022/2023/2024 210 GW 2583/1397/1120-0.24200.06320.36850.67380.97901.284322/2 22/3 22/4 22/5 22/6 22/8 22/9 22/1022/1122/12 23/1 23/2 300+2022-2024 35.45/58.83/74.98 7.82/10.67/12.59 EPS 3.43/4.68/5.52 PE 21.44X/15.71X/13.31X+“”Table_Forcast1 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 1567 3545 5883 7498(%)110 126 66 27 173 782 1067 1259(%)193 353 36 18 0.76 3.43 4.68 5.52 ROE(%)15 41 36 30 P/E 97.08 21.44 15.71 13.31 P/B 9.46 8.79 5.63 3.96 P/S 6.97 4.73 2.85 2.24 EV/EBITDA 37.68 18.89 13.61 10.94 Wind 3 1.6 1.1.6 1.2 2017-2021 CAGR 42.60%.8 2.10 2.1.10 2.2.15 3.16 3.1.16 3.2.20 4.21 4.1.21 4.2 52GW.28 5.31 6.32 6.1.32 6.2.34 7.34 4 1.6 2.6 3 2022.7 4 2017-2022.8 5 2017-2021.8 6 2021.9 7 2021.9 8 2017-2022.9 9 2017-2022.10 10 2017-2022.10 11.10 12.10 13.11 14.11 15.11 16.12 17.12 18.15 19.15 20.16 21.17 22.20 23.21 24.21 25.22 26 2021.22 27.25 28 m/min.29 29 m.29 30.29 31 GW.30 1.7 2 2022.8 3 2022-2025/.13 4 2022-2025/.14 5.16 6.17 7.18 8 2025/.19 9 2025/.19 10.20 11.23 12 2021.24 5 13 GW 210.26 14 GW 182.26 15/210.27 16/182.28 17.29 18.30 19.31 6 1 1.1 2006 2020 1 2011 2009 2 2011 2016 3 2021 2022 10 28“+/+”1 2 7 1/2022 9 30 25.48%4.74%2.47%32.69%2021 4 23 148 321.05 1.98%5 3 2022 wind-8 2 2022 2020 2021 2020 2021 2017/5/15 100.00%35.71 73.04 4.02 3.47/2017/2/21 100.00%122.93 152.76-3.03 5.22 2019/1/23 33.33%139.91 252.05-3.49 15.79 2021/2/20 100.00%-118.89-1.10 2021/8/2 100.00%-0.43 wind 1.2 2017-2021 CAGR 42.60%2017-2021 CAGR 42.60%2017-2022 4.25 6.07 7.14 7.46 15.67 21.90 189.49%42.65%17.73%4.46%109.97%125.18%2017-2021 CAGR 38.54%2017-2022 0.42 0.54 0.32 0.59 1.73 4.28 609.07%28.21%-40.18%83.83%193.38%283.89%2017-2021 CAGR 42.60%2022 2022 7.6-8.2 340.09%-374.83%4 2017-2022 5 2017-2021 wind wind 9 6 2021 7 2021 wind wind 2017-2022 41.94%38.44%35.64%35.35%33.75%39.80%2022 8 2017-2022 wind 2017-2022 9.82%8.82%4.48%7.89%11.02%19.55%2017-2021-10.68pct-6.86pct 3 16 2022H1 411 10 9 2017-2022 10 2017-2022 Wind Wind 11 12 Wind Wind 2 2.1 0.5N 11 300 13 14 15 1 CPIA 2021 182mm 210mm 45%2022/2025 75%/95%2 2021 170 m 150-155 m 12 16 17 CPIA CPIA 2025/108/36 2025/71/22 1 CPIA 2022-2025 240GW/275GW/300GW/330GW 90GW/95GW/100GW/110GW 2022-2025 195GW/220GW/245GW/270GW 75GW/80GW/85GW/90GW 2 2022-2025 1.2 5%/5%/5%/5%55%/43%/35%/32%3 2022 2023 2023-2025 10%/12%/18%4 GW 2/6/8/16 2019/103.61/93.54/130.78/126.11 2021 2019 10%GW 3449 2022-2025-8%/-8%/-6%/-5%2022-2025*0.8 13 3 2022-2025/2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E GW 170 240 275 300 330 55 90 95 100 110 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 5%5%5%5%5%GW 215 303 347 379 417 69 114 120 126 139 56%55%43%35%32%GW 386 551 808 1083 1303 125 207 279 361 434 GW 132 165 312 372 415 30 82 93 115 138 GW 2 2 2 2 2 6 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 16 16 16 16 16 93 86 79 74 70 84 77 71 67 64 118 108 100 94 89 113 104 96 90 86 GW 186 172 158 148 141 505 465 428 402 382 942 866 797 749 712 1816 1671 1537 1445 1373 3449 3173 2919 2744 2607 45.37 52.46 91.01 102.03 108.14 CAGR 2022-2025 27.27%10.44 26.06 27.16 31.65 36.05 CAGR 2022-2025 11.42%CPIA 14 4 2022-2025/2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E GW 170 195 220 245 270 55 75 80 85 90 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 5%5%5%5%5%GW 215 246 278 309 341 69 95 101 107 114 56%55%43%35%32%GW 386 448 646 884 1066 125 172 235 307 355 GW 62 243 315 341 48 80 100 104 GW 2 2 2 2 2 6 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 16 16 16 16 16 93 69 63 59 56 84 62 57 54 51 118 87 80 75 71 113 84 77 72 69 GW 186 137 126 119 113 505 372 342 322 305 942 693 638 599 569 1816 1337 1230 1156 1098 3449 2539 2336 2195 2086 15.73 56.80 69.26 71.07 CAGR 2022-2025 65.31%12.10 18.68 21.95 21.63 CAGR 2022-2025 21.35%CPIA 15 2.2 2016 NTC 2017-2019 2019 2021 98.52%18 19 Wind Wind 2020 GC700X 166mm 210mm 230mm 2021 N 120 m 16 5 2400m/min 2400m/min 850mm 850-900mm 60min 60-70min 166-230mm 210mm;166mm-182mm 1.3N 1.5-1.7N 0.2N 0.3-0.35N 20 Wind 3 3.1 细 线化、高 速化 趋势 下，金刚 线切 割难 度加 大-17 21 6 60m 20m 20 580-900m/min 2400m/min+2-4 PEG 18 7 Wind 2025/89/30 2025/58/19 1 2020 2021 41.73/2022-2025-5%/-10%/-5%/-5%2022-2025*0.8 2 2021 GW 37.5 2022 GW+40%2023/2024/2025 GW+10%/+8%/+6%19 8 2025/2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E GW 170 240 275 300 330 55 90 95 100 110 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 5%5%5%5%5%GW 215 303 347 379 417 69 114 120 126 139 GW 37.50 52.50 57.75 62.37 66.11/41.73 38.39 35.32 33.20 31.54 GW 1565 2016 2040 2071 2085 33.60 63.10 71.57 80.11 88.74 CAGR 2022-2025 12.04%10.85 23.66 24.73 26.70 29.58 CAGR 2022-2025 7.73%CPIA 9 2025/2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E GW 170 195 220 245 270 55 75 80 85 90 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.20 5%5%5%5%5%GW 215 246 278 309 341 69 95 101 107 114 GW 37.50 52.50 57.75 62.37 66.11/41.73 30.71 28.26 26.56 25.23 GW 1565 1612 1632 1657 1668 33.60 41.01 45.81 52.34 58.08 CAGR 2022-2025 12.30%10.85 15.77 16.66 18.16 19.36 CAGR 2022-2025 7.07%CPIA 20 3.2 Asahi ALMT DMT 2015 2019 64%22 2022Q1 2022 12 16 2022 3000 4000 2023 10 m m N/mm 65 77 2 75 5 15 15 250 50 100-500 60 73 2 75 5 13.5 13 230 50 50 65 2 65 5 10.5 9.5 220 50 45 60 2 60 5 9.0 8.5 190 30 43 58 2 58 5 8.4 8.0 180 30 40 55 2 55 5 6.8 7.0 160 30 21 23 24 wind Wind 4 4.1、切 片产 能加 速迭 代，专业 分工 实现 双赢 1 2 22 25 26 2021 210 1 210 0.15-0.25/2022/2023/2024-15%/-9%/-4%-5%/-10%/-5%23 1:1.7 2021 GW 2376 GW 3449 5 0 2022/2023/2024 GW/-8%/-8%/-6%2020 6.9/2021/2022/2023/2024+5%CPIA 2021 170/2022/2023/2024+8%10%0.1/11 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E/高测股份 25.10 21.33 19.41 18.64 行业 39.16 37.20 33.48 31.81/高测股份 3.75 5.25 5.78 6.24 行业 3.75 5.25 5.78 6.24/高测股份 0.0941 0.1120 0.1121 0.1162 行业 0.1469 0.1953 0.1934 0.1984/高测股份 0.1600 0.1904 0.1906 0.1976 行业 0.2496 0.3320 0.3287 0.3373/GW 高测股份 2376 2186 2011 1891 行业 3449 3173 2919 2744/高测股份 0.0475 0.0437 0.0402 0.0378 行业 0.0690 0.0635 0.0584 0.0549/高测股份 0.0387 0.0377 0.0366 0.0356 行业 0.0426 0.0414 0.0403 0.0392/高测股份 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 行业 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1/高测 股份 0.4404 0.4838 0.4795 0.4873 行业 0.6081 0.7322 0.7207 0.7297 Wind CPIA 210 24 12 2021 需求量（台/GW）2 均价（万元/台）93 投资额（万元/GW）186 需求量（台/GW）6 均价（万元/台）84 投资额（万元/GW）505 需求量（台/GW）8 均价（万元/台）118 投资额（万元/GW）942 需求量（台/GW）16 均价（万元/台）113 投资额（万元/GW）1816/GW 3449/GW 2376 31.11%5 0/0.0690/0.0475 210 2 3 25 27 4 2022/2023/2024 210 GW 2583/1397/1120 210 4/4%GW 1 2021/2022 210 7.48/9.09/2023/2024 210-45%/-15%2021/2022 210 0.48/0.47/2023/2024 2021 5%2022/2023/2024 4%/4%/4%2021 300/GW 2022 2023/2024-50%/-20%20%15%26 13 GW 210 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 210/7.48 9.09 5.00 4.25 GW 210 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00/0.48 0.47 0.47 0.47 GW 0.48 0.47 0.47 0.47 5.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%GW 0.0500 0.0400 0.0400 0.0400 GW 0.3739 0.3636 0.2000 0.1700 GW 0.0300 0.0300 0.0150 0.0120 GW 0.8839 0.8636 0.6850 0.6520 GW 0.4404 0.4838 0.4795 0.4873 GW 0.4448 0.3811 0.2067 0.1660 20%20%20%20%GW 0.3016 0.2583 0.1397 0.1120 50.18%43.98%29.99%25.27%34.12%29.91%20.40%17.18%wind 14 GW 182 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 182/5.54 6.85 3.77 3.20 GW 182 1.34 1.34 1.34 1.34/0.35 0.34 0.34 0.34 GW 0.47 0.45 0.45 0.45 5.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%GW 0.0668 0.0534 0.0534 0.0534 GW 0.3698 0.3660 0.2013 0.1711 GW 0.0300 0.0300 0.0150 0.0120 GW 0.8670 0.8499 0.6702 0.6370 GW 0.4404 0.4838 0.4795 0.4873 GW 0.4267 0.3661 0.1907 0.1498 20%20%20%20%GW 0.2901 0.2490 0.1297 0.1018 49.21%43.08%28.45%23.51%33.46%29.29%19.35%15.99%wind 27 15/210/GW 210mm 硅片价 格（含税，元/片）9 8 7 6 5 4 6%3595.87 3187.87 2779.87 2371.87 1963.87 1555.87 5%2983.87 2643.87 2303.87 1963.87 1623.87 1283.87 4%2371.87 2099.87 1827.87 1555.87 1283.87 1011.87 3%1759.87 1555.87 1351.87 1147.87 943.87 739.87 2%1147.87 1011.87 875.87 739.87 603.87 467.87 210mm/9 8 7 6 5 4 6%51.59%48.58%45.17%41.28%36.79%31.56%5%46.93%43.93%40.58%36.79%32.49%27.56%4%41.28%38.36%35.14%31.56%27.56%23.07%3%34.28%31.56%28.61%25.38%21.86%17.98%2%25.38%23.07%20.61%17.98%15.18%12.18%210mm/9 8 7 6 5 4 6%35.08%33.03%30.72%28.07%25.02%21.46%5%31.91%29.87%27.59%25.02%22.09%18.74%4%28.07%26.09%23.89%21.46%18.74%15.69%3%23.31%21.46%19.45%17.26%14.86%12.23%2%17.26%15.69%14.01%12.23%10.32%8.28%wind 28 16/182/GW 182mm/8 7 6 5 4 3 6%4171.83 3627.15 3082.47 2537.79 1993.11 1448.43 5%3445.59 2991.69 2537.79 2083.89 1629.99 1176.09 4%2719.35 2356.23 1993.11 1629.99 1266.87 903.75 3%1993.11 1720.77 1448.43 1176.09 903.75 631.41 2%1266.87 1085.31 903.75 722.19 540.63 359.07 182mm/8 7 6 5 4 3 6%55.29%51.81%47.74%42.93%37.13%30.03%5%50.52%47.00%42.93%38.18%32.57%25.85%4%44.63%41.12%37.13%32.57%27.30%21.13%3%37.13%33.77%30.03%25.85%21.13%15.76%2%27.30%24.34%21.13%17.63%13.81%9.62%182mm/8 7 6 5 4 3 6%37.59%35.23%32.46%29.19%25.25%20.42%5%34.36%31.96%29.19%25.96%22.15%17.58%4%30.35%27.96%25.25%22.15%18.56%14.37%3%25.25%22.97%20.42%17.58%14.37%10.72%2%18.56%16.55%14.37%11.99%9.39%6.54%wind 4.2、打 造先 进切 片基 地，规划 产能 已 达 52GW 1 2022 2400m/min 2018 GC-QP700 2400m/min 29 17 m/min min min 1500 80 30 13 1800 75 30 14 2100 65 30 15 2400 60 30 16 28 m/min 2 2021 43m 40m 38m 29 m 30 Separation and Purification Technology elsevier 3 30 2021 3 IPO 5 G12 20GW 6GW 10GW 2022 2022 12GW 5GW 14GW 2023 4 2023 2022 12 52GW 18 GW 乐山大硅片示范基地 5 2 2021 12 6 6 2022 14 11 建湖一期 10 5 2022 12 6 2023 5 2 2023-52 2022 12 31 GW 2022 12 31 5 2018+2021 1.05 0.48+0.58 323.05%2022H1 0.76 0.37+0.38 2021 12 31 0.43 284.79%2022 6 30 0.25 GC-SCDW6500 4 0.2mm 2021 2021 GC-SADW6670 700mm 2021 33 GC-MADW1660 19(m)(N)(/mm)光伏金/半导体/蓝 宝石/磁性材料金刚线 65m 773 755 15.0 15 25050 最高 24020 60m 732 755 13.5 13 23050 50m 652 655 10.5 9.5 22050 最高 18020 45m 602 605 9.0 8.5 19030 最高 10020 43m 582 585 8.4 8.0 18030-40m 552 555 6.8 7.0 16030 最高 10020+100mm 48h 120h WARP 32 BOW TTV+6 6.1、盈 利预 测假 设与 业务 拆分 1 2021 2022Q1 466 2022 1864 2023/2024+42%/+10%2 2022Q1 55 2022 264 2022Q1*4*1.2 2023/2024+80.95%/+36.84%3 2022/2023/2024 92%4 2022 2022 A 2022H1 98.47/2022 98.47/2023/2024 2022/2023/2024 32%1 2021 20 320 2022Q1 2022 3300 2023 4000 1000 2023 5500 2024 4000 2024 8000 2 2022/2023/2024 94%3 2022Q1 49.04 2022 235.39 2022Q1*4*1.2 2023/2024+178%/+56.83%4 2022/2023/2024 95%5 2022/2023/2024-5%/-10%/-5%6+2022 42.5%2023/2024-0.5pct/-0.5pct 1 2022/2023/2024 21/38/52GW 2 2022 10GW 2023/21GW 12GW 60%5GW 60%31.2GW 2024/38GW 14GW 50%43.6GW 3 2022/2023/2024 GW 8636/6850/6520 43.98%/29.99%/25.27%33 1 2022/2023/2024+60.00%/+79.34%/+80.61%2 2022/2023/2024 44%20 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 466 474 1221 1864 2647 2912 3 107 264 478 654 70.82%90.23%91.65%92.00%92.00%92.00%330 425 1021 1472 1996 2077/115.10 106.24 96.69 98.47 98.47 98.47 3.80 4.52 9.87 14.49 19.65 20.45 yoy-18.87%118.64%46.83%35.57%4.09%36.50%37.10%31.10%32.00%32.00%32.00%539 540 1079 3300 5500 8000 91.77%85.00%93.91%94.00%94.00%94.00%495 459 1013 3102 5170 7520 70 235 734 1026 95.43%104.07%94.87%95.00%95.00%95.00%472 478 892 2712 4177 6118/60.39 48.32 39.16 37.20 33.48 31.81 2.85 2.31 2.92 10.09 13.99 19.46 yoy-18.95%26.41%245.46%38.64%39.14%32.46%33.02%35.91%42.50%42.00%41.50%GW 21 38 52 47.62%82.11%83.85%GW 10.00 31.20 43.60 GW 8636 6850 6520 1.06 8.64 21.37 28.43 yoy-716.37%147.46%33.01%43.98%29.99%25.27%1.05 1.68 3.02 5.45 yoy-60.00%79.34%80.61%42.41%44.00%44.00%44.00%7.14 7.46 15.67 35.45 58.83 74.98 yoy-4.46%109.97%126.28%65.96%27.45%35.64%35.35%33.75%38.66%34.44%33.00%wind 34 6.2、可 比公 司分 析和 投资 建议 2022-2023 PE 36.04X/22.22X 2022-2023 PE 16.93X/11.10X 2022-2023 PE 21.44X/15.71X 2022-2024 35.45/58.83/74.98 7.82/10.67/12.59 EPS 3.43/4.68/5.52 PE 21.44X/15.71X/13.31X+“”21 EPS PE 2021A 2022E 2023E 2021A 2022E 2023E 300316.SZ 66.66 1.31 2.11 2.86 50.97 31.54 23.27 872.39 603185.SH 110.73 4.17 8.22 13.17 26.58 13.47 8.41 454.93 835368.BJ 61.05 1.48 2.02 3.71 41.18 30.29 16.46 142.55 300751.SZ 363.60 3.69 5.28 8.92 98.45 68.84 40.75 632.84 2.66 4.41 7.17 54.30 36.04 22.22 300861.SZ 50.50 1.59 2.92 3.63 31.76 17.27 13.92 242.41 002132.SZ 4.81 0.10 0.29 0.58 48.01 16.59 8.28 67.41 0.85 1.61 2.10 39.89 16.93 11.10 688556.SH 73.55 0.76 3.43 4.68 97.08 21.44 15.71 167.64 wind 2 17 wind 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 35 8 9 10 11 36 Table_Forcast 688556 73.55 2023/02/17 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E ROE 15%41%36%30%EPS 0.76 3.43 4.68 5.52 34%39%34%33%BVPS 7.13 8.37 13.05 5.52 13%11%11%11%11%22%18%17%P/E 97.08 21.44 15.71 13.31 P/B 9.46 8.79 5.63 3.96 110%126%66%27%P/S 6.97 4.73 2.85 2.24 193%353%36%18%2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 0.48 0.60 0.66 0.65 1567 3545 5883 7498 2.26 2.12 2.28 2.31 1038 2174 3857 5024 2.81 2.83 3.00 3.37 6 13 22 28 63 124 206 262 64%68%67%63%131 277 459 585 1.22 1.26 1.32 1.42 7-5-9-18 0.88 0.89 0.94 1.05/-117 265 441 570 212 846 1155 1363 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E-25 0 0 0 528 708 1148 2079 187 846 1155 1363 1173 2667 4197 5175 14 64 88 104 558 1254 1960 2226 173 782 1067 1259 166 314 510 647 0 0 0 0 2424 4943 7815 10127 173 782 1067 1259 370 439 502 561 169 269 369 469 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 272 281 290 299 76 410 634 1120 0 0 0 0 173 782 1067 1259 3235 5931 8976 11456 0 0 0 0 28 28 28 28 69 32 37 42 1401 2948 4338 5151 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-220-396-454-160 560 955 1543 1950 151-199-191-186 1989 3931 5909 7130-83-210-210-210 0 0 0 0 229 0 0 0 92 92 92 92 6 11 19 24 92 92 92 92-101-31-3-3 2081 4023 6001 7222-80 0 0 0 162 228 228 228 0 1 0 0 1154 1908 2975 4234-21-32-3-3 3235 5931 8976 11456 127 180 440 931 Wind 7,300 300 300 300 20%300 10%20%300-10%10%300 10%R3/
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