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2023 02 19()S0350521080004 S0350521080009 S0350121080058 Table_Title MDI MDI 600309 2023 1 300 2023/02/17 1M 3M 12M 6.2%14.6%7.3%300-2.5%5.7%-12.8%2023/02/17 101.61 52 73.50-103.18 319,029.65 319,029.65 313,974.66 313,974.66 1,937.31%0.38 600309 2022*2023-02-14 600309 POE MDI*2023-01-13 600309 MDI*2022-12-23 600309:MDI 20.92%2023 2 10 2023 Q1 86.582022 Q4 0.23 20.92%2022 Q4 0.27 2010 Q1 1-2 2023 35 2023 Q1 111.43 2022 Q4 2.23 28.74%2023 Q1 58.56 2022 Q4 1.80 0.00%2023 Q1 66.10 2022 Q4 2.17 38.30%2023 2 1 0.95 15/19.5/-0.2429-0.1804-0.1179-0.05540.00700.069522/2 22/3 22/4 22/5 22/6 22/7 22/9 22/1022/1122/12 23/1 23/2 300 2 2022 11 1.5*2022-12-17 600309 2022 10*2022-11-12 2023 2 1 1#2#3#2023 2 2 2000/12 2000t/a 12 2023 2 2 1 2023 2 2 6000 P P P 4000t/a 6000t/a 2023 2 3 1.2 PTBP 1.2/PTBP 2023 2 3 PVC 2023 2 6 36 36/2023 2 6-4 58.5km 3.5km 2 300/120/90/15.2 Nm3/h 2023 2 14 80/MDI 40/MDI 40/80/2022 2022 103 2022-2023 413 1732 MDI 2023 1 MDI 15126/-28.91%+4.29%MDI 17892/-16.45%+7.28%2023 1 31 MDI 17000/MDI 18750/2023 1 MDI 9533/-38.50%3+6.89%MDI 12299/-21.35%+10.88%2023 1 31 MDI 11280.9/MDI 13131/2022 1-12 8539.1-5.04%5490.0-22.91%2022 1-12 3535.6-10.38%2022 12 745.1-1.68%-1.78%343.0-37.18%-3.65%274.2-20.98%-4.29%2023 1 159.4-34.19%-33.11%164.90-34.84%-35.49%2022 1-12 12.06-39.37%2022 12 0.90-44.29%+13.21%2022 1-12 90.50-7.22%2022-2024 162.39 235.52 320.31 PE 19.7 13.6 10.0 Table_Forcast1 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 145538 165565 176312 224840(%)98 14 6 28 24649 16239 23552 32031(%)145-34 45 36 7.85 5.17 7.50 10.20 ROE(%)36 19 22 23 P/E 12.87 19.65 13.55 9.96 P/B 4.63 3.76 2.95 2.27 P/S 2.18 1.93 1.81 1.42 EV/EBITDA 9.06 12.54 9.58 6.96 Wind 4 1.7 2.7 3.8 4.10 5.16 5.1 MDI.16 5.1.1 MDI.16 5.1.2 MDI.18 5.1.3 MDI.20 5.2 TDI.23 5.2.1 TDI.24 5.2.2 TDI.24 5.3.25 6.27 7.29 8.31 9.31 5 1.7 2 20.92%.8 3.8 4.9 5.9 6 28.74%.16 7 MDI 29.40%.16 8 MDI.16 9 MDI.16 10 MDI.17 11 MDI.17 12 MDI.17 13 MDI.17 14.17 15 MDI.18 16 MDI.18 17 MDI.18 18 MDI.18 19 MDI.18 20 MDI.19 21 MDI.19 22 MDI.19 23 MDI.19 24.20 25.20 26.21 27.21 28.21 29.21 30:.21 31:.21 32.22 33.22 34.22 35.22 36.22 37.22 38.23 39.23 40 TDI 28.16%.23 41 TDI.24 42 TDI.24 43 TDI.24 44 TDI.24 6 45 TDI.24 46 TDI.24 47 TDI.25 48.25 49.26 50.26 51.26 52 0%.27 53-.27 54-.27 55-.27 56-.27 57 LLDPE.28 58.28 59 PVC.28 60-.28 61-.28 62 MTBE.28 63 38.30%.29 64 HDI.29 65 IPDI.29 66 PC-0.9*A.30 67 SAP.30 68 MMA.30 69 PMMA.30 70 TPU.30 71.30 1 1-2.7 2 2023 1-2.11 3.15 4 1-2.15 5 MDI.18 6 MDI.19 7 MDI.19 8 MDI 2023 1.20 9 TDI 2023 1.25 7 1 2023 1 31 96.61+4.27%+8.74%300+7.37%2 1 1-2 2023/2/4 MDI MDI 80/2023 2 13 30 2023/2/2 5%15 3 1%2023/2/1 5%2022 11 1 15 3 1%3139.75 1%2023/1/31 2023 2 MDI 2023 2 MDI 17800/1 1000/MDI 22500/1 2000/wind 1 wind 0204060801001201401602015-012015-042015-072015-102016-012016-042016-072016-102017-012017-042017-072017-102018-012018-042018-072018-102019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-01 600309.SH 8 3 2023 2 10 2023 Q1 86.58 2022 Q4 0.23 20.92%2022 Q4 0.27 2010 Q1 2 20.92%wind 2010 Q1 3 wind 100%2023 2 4 MDI 80/2023 2 13 30 0204060801001201401601802010Q12010Q32011Q12011Q32012Q12012Q32013Q12013Q32014Q12014Q32015Q12015Q32016Q12016Q32017Q12017Q32018Q12018Q32019Q12019Q32020Q12020Q32021Q12021Q32022Q12022Q32023Q1 9 4 wind 5 wind 10 4 2023 2 1 0.95 15/19.5/2023 2 1 1#2#3#2023 2 1 1#2#1#2#2023 2 2 2000/12 2000t/a 12 2023 2 2 1 2023 2 2 6000 P P P 4000t/a 6000t/a 2023 2 3 1.2 PTBP 1.2/PTBP 2023 2 3 PVC 2023 2 6 36 36/2023 2 6-4 58.5km 3.5km 2 300/120/90/15.2 Nm3/h 2023 2 14 80/MDI 11 40/MDI 40/80/2022 2022 103 2022-2023 413 1732 2 2023 1-2/2022/2022 2023 12 5.14 TPU 7 23328 14.45 14.45 14.45 2022-1.62 3 11823 3.14 3.14 3.14 2022 9000/PDMS 0.91 0.4 30681 1.22 2.44 2.44 2022-0.4 0.1 10/4.42 7 10000 4.42 8.85 8.85 2022-1 N,N-2 20 5 11823 2.62 5.23 5.23 2022 0.05 3 11823 1.57 3.14 3.14 2022 2.5 TPU TPU MDI TPU 3.3 23328 3.41 6.81 6.81 2022-0.05 0.3 50000 0.66 1.33 1.33 2022-48 A 62.36 A 48 14543 30.89 61.78 61.78 2022 6-28 2.32 17 11823 8.89 17.79 17.79 2022 10 11823 5.23 10.46 10.46 12 4 12 PA12 25.48 12 4 150000 26.55 53.10 53.10 2022-5 5 10000 4.42 4.42 2022-6 6 13264 7.04 7.04 2022 40/MDI 56.05 MDI 40 19199 33.98 67.96 2022 14 11.09 PC 14 19200 11.89 23.79 2023-23.70 4.8 80000 16.99 33.98 2023-MDI/HDI 180/MDI 41.61 MDI 60 19199 50.97 101.94 2023 MDI 28 15000 18.58 37.17 HDI 5 73748 16.32 32.63-HDI 6 73748 19.58 39.16 25/TDI 19.27 TDI 25 18342 20.29 40.58 2023 8 NMP NMP 8 45600 16.14 32.28 2023-20/17.81 20 8788 7.78 15.55 2023-176.0 2#60000/PSA 120 2024 2#55 40 8475 30.00 2#20 9402 16.64 LDPE 25 10938 24.20 POE 40 25000 88.50 MMA 20.51 PMMA 8 17724 12.55 2024-MMA 8 11679 8.27 MAA 4 11679 4.13 12 5.14 TPU 5 23328 10.32 2024-13 9/0.62 5 15000 6.64 2024-20 2726 4.82 2024 BDO 10 22687 20.08 108 108 11983 114.52 2024 80 PVC 46.3 VCM 80 6278 44.45 2024 PVC 80 7713 54.61 25%wt 7.52 539 0.36 CMP Pad+slurry 15.70 1.5-2 36/kg 7.20 2024-CMP Pad 60/3000/18.00 40/POCHP 24.81 40 10616 37.58 2024 5 5 150264 66.49 2024-3/4.28 3 18000 4.78 2024-48 2.32 48 1244 5.28 2024 85/12.08 85 11823 88.93 2024 4 2.97 4 50000 17.70 2024-2/MQ 2.86 MQ 2 32400 5.73 2024-7.5 PLA 7.5 26000 17.26 2024-231 PP 30 19200 50.97 2025 50 11823 52.31 2025 5.17 10349 4.74 2025 16 11927 16.89 2025 2 13178 2.33 2025 14 30 7353 19.52 2025 5 3.42 5 27058 11.97 2025-6 2.04 6 20636 10.96 2025 14.89 W 1.11 157946 15.51 2025-0.96 38254 3.26 2025 3 1,3-3 30000 7.96 2025-10/17.33 10 22687 20.08 2025 18.93 HMDA 3 70000 18.58 2025-XDI 0.6 150000 7.96 2025 3 25000 6.64 2025-2.5 20000 4.42 2025 2/2 60000 10.62 2025-0.42 0.98-0.42 108480 4.03 2025-6000 1.47 0.6 44490 2.36 2025-2.6 PC 14 19200 23.79 2025-36 PO/EO 36 8985 28.62 2025 1.2 PTBP 1.2 12000 1.27 2025-4.5 7353 2.93 2025 2000/12 12 0.2 150000 2.65 2025-80/MDI MDI 40 19199 67.98 2025 920.71 103.1 412.5 1732.4 wind 15 3 2022 80.0 0.0 99.1 179.1 2022-2023 120.1 17.8 154.7 292.6 217.8 436.3 266.6 920.7 2022 21.4 0.0 81.6 103.1 2022-2023 163.6 14.8 234.1 412.5 632.2 489.9 610.4 1732.4 wind 4 1-2 2023/2/14 80/MDI 2023/2/7-2023/2/6 36 2023/2/3 1.2 PTBP 2023/2/3 2023/2/2 6000 P 2023/2/2 2023/2/2 2000/12 2023/2/1 2023/2/1 2023/2/1 6 7 7 16 5 MDI TDI 2023 2 10 2023 Q1 111.43 2022 Q4 2.23 28.74%2022 Q4 1.55 2023 2 10 2023 Q1 MDI 130.30 2022 Q4 2.44 29.40%2022 Q4 1.58 6 28.74%7 MDI 29.40%wind 2010 Q1 wind 2010 Q1 5.1 MDI 5.1.1 MDI 8 MDI 9 MDI wind wind 0501001502002502010Q12010Q32011Q12011Q32012Q12012Q32013Q12013Q32014Q12014Q32015Q12015Q32016Q12016Q32017Q12017Q32018Q12018Q32019Q12019Q32020Q12020Q32021Q12021Q32022Q12022Q32023Q1 0501001502002503002010Q12010Q32011Q12011Q32012Q12012Q32013Q12013Q32014Q12014Q32015Q12015Q32016Q12016Q32017Q12017Q32018Q12018Q32019Q12019Q32020Q12020Q32021Q12021Q32022Q12022Q32023Q1 MDI 0500010000150002000025000300003500040000 MDI()/MDI/05001000150020002500300035004000:MDI MDI:/:MDI:/17 10 MDI Wind Bloomberg 11 MDI 12 MDI wind wind 13 MDI 14 wind wind 050001000015000200002500030000350004000005000100001500020000250003000035000400004500050000 MDI-0.775*-*0.362-*0.608()/MDI/05000100001500020000250003000035000400004500005000100001500020000250003000035000400004500050000 MDI-1.5*-0.63*()/MDI/050001000015000200002500030000350000500010000150002000025000300003500040000 MDI-1.5*-0.63*()/MDI/05001000150020002500/18 5.1.2 MDI 15 MDI 16 MDI 17 MDI 5 MDI 2023-1 7.23 7.22 14.46 2022-12 7.23 7.22 14.46 2022-11 3.40 7.79 11.19 2022-10 1.82 6.66 8.48 2022-09 5.68 6.66 12.34 2022-08 6.20 6.23 12.43 2022-07 6.20 8.29 14.49 2022-06 6.72 8.35 15.07 2022-05 7.23 7.66 14.89 2022-04 7.23 7.66 14.89 2022-03 7.23 7.72 14.96 2022-02 6.53 7.48 14.02 2022-01 7.00 3.29 10.29 2021-12 8.00 2.38 10.38 2021-11 7.00 9.17 16.17 2021-10 4.55 9.11 13.66 18 MDI 19 MDI wind wind-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%05101520252022-122022-102022-082022-062022-042022-022021-122021-102021-082021-062021-042021-022020-122020-102020-082020-062020-042020-022019-12MDI%-80%-40%0%40%80%120%160%0.005.0010.0015.0020.0025.0030.002023-012022-112022-092022-072022-052022-032022-012021-112021-092021-072021-052021-032021-012020-112020-092020-072020-052020-03%020000400006000080000100000120000140000:MDI MDI 05000100001500020000250003000035000400004500050000:MDI MDI 19 20 MDI 21 MDI wind wind 6 MDI 7 MDI 2022-12 1.49 2.72 4.21 2022-12 0.01 0.40 0.41 2022-11 1.09 5.71 6.80 2022-11 0.02 0.84 0.86 2022-10 1.15 3.16 4.30 2022-10 0.05 0.55 0.59 2022-09 2.51 4.31 6.82 2022-09 0.03 0.55 0.57 2022-08 1.21 3.41 4.62 2022-08 0.05 0.60 0.65 2022-07 2.28 4.65 6.94 2022-07 0.25 0.74 1.00 2022-06 3.66 5.12 8.78 2022-06 0.24 0.66 0.90 2022-05 4.39 5.26 9.65 2022-05 0 0.95 0.95 2022-04 1.40 5.99 7.39 2022-04 0 0.89 0.89 2022-03 4.21 3.66 7.87 2022-03 0.01 0.74 0.75 2022-02 1.66 3.05 4.72 2022-02 0.07 0.67 0.75 2022-01 2.58 4.50 7.09 2022-01 0.22 0.51 0.73 2021-12 1.99 3.59 5.58 2021-12 0.15 0.51 0.65 2021-11 2.08 4.48 6.56 2021-11 0.12 0.74 0.86 2021-10 1.01 4.93 5.94 2021-10 0.06 0.58 0.64 2021-09 2.65 4.51 7.16 2021-09 0.05 0.85 0.90 22 MDI 23 MDI 02000400060008000100001200014000:MDI 0200040006000800010000120001400016000:MDI 708090100110120130 MDI()02468101214161820 MDI()20 8 MDI 2023 1/120 80/2 13 30 110 40 37 22 60 40 2.6 1 8 62 17 20 41 34 33 40 50 65 19 47 40 35 7 40 25 1012 5.1.3 MDI 24 25 wind wind-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%020040060080010002022 2021 20202019 2022 2021-50%0%50%100%150%01002003004005006007008002022 2021 20202019 2022 2021 21 26 27 wind ifind wind ifind 28 29 wind ifind wind ifind 30:31:wind wind-50%0%50%100%150%200%0501001502002503003504004502022 2021 20202019 2022 2021-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%180%0501001502002503003504004502022 2021 20202019 2022 2021-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%0501001502002503002022 2021 20202019 2022 2021-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%0204060801001201401601802022 2021 20202019 2022 2021-10%-5%0%5%10%15%50607080901002022 2021 20202019 2022 2021-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%0.00.51.01.52.02.53.02022 2021 20202019 2022 2021 22 32 33 wind wind 34 35 wind wind 36 37 wind-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%2023 2022 20212020 2023 2022-75%-50%-25%0%25%50%0501001502002503002023 2022 20212020 2023 2022-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%2022 2021 20202019 2022 2021-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%2023 2022 20212020 2023 2022-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%2023 2022 20212020 2023 2022 3035404550556065707580()23 38 39 wind wind 5.2 TDI 2023 2 10 2023 Q1 TDI 74.91 2022 Q4 1.96 28.16%2022 Q4 1.33 40 TDI 28.16%wind 2010 Q1 3003504004505005506006507002015-012015-072016-012016-072017-012017-072018-012018-072019-012019-072020-012020-072021-012021-072022-012022-07:04008001200160020002015-012015-072016-012016-072017-012017-072018-012018-072019-012019-072020-012020-072021-012021-072022-012022-07:0204060801001201401601802002010Q12010Q32011Q12011Q32012Q12012Q32013Q12013Q32014Q12014Q32015Q12015Q32016Q12016Q32017Q12017Q32018Q12018Q32019Q12019Q32020Q12020Q32021Q12021Q32022Q12022Q32023Q1 TDI 24 5.2.1 TDI 41 TDI 42 TDI wind 5.2.2 TDI 43 TDI 44 TDI 45 TDI 46 TDI 80001000012000140001600018000200002200024000260002019-012019-032019-052019-072019-092019-112020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-01 TDI T80/20(/)05000100001500020000250003000035000400004500050000550000100002000030000400005000060000TDI-*1.16()/TDI/30405060708090100 TDI()020406080100120140 TDI()02468101214 TDI()05101520253035404550 TDI()25 47 TDI 9 TDI 2023 1()31 30 16 12 10 10 5 2 1 15 124 72.83%5.3 48 wind 010002000300040005000600050008000110001400017000200002015-08 2016-08 2017-08 2018-08 2019-08 2020-08 2021-08 2022-08-0.85*()/26 49 wind 50 51-2000-1000010002000300040000200040006000800010000120001400016000180002015-08 2016-08 2017-08 2018-08 2019-08 2020-08 2021-08 2022-08-0.85*()/150200250300350400()100150200250300350400()27 6 2023 2 10 2023 Q1 58.56 2022 Q4 1.80 0.00%2022 Q4 2.92 52 0%wind 2010 Q1 53-54-wind wind 55-56-wind wind 50607080901001101201302010Q12010Q32011Q12011Q32012Q12012Q32013Q12013Q32014Q12014Q32015Q12015Q32016Q12016Q32017Q12017Q32018Q12018Q32019Q12019Q32020Q12020Q32021Q12021Q32022Q12022Q32023Q1-2000200400600800100002004006008001000120014001600-(,/):/:CFR/0200400600800100002004006008001000120014001600-(,/):/:CFR/-100010020030040050060070002004006008001000120014001600-(,/):FOB/:CFR/010020030040050060070002004006008001000120014001600-(,/):FOB/:CFR/28 57 LLDPE 58 wind wind 59 PVC 60-wind wind 61-62 MTBE wind wind 40005000600070008000900010000110001200013000LLDPE/01000200030004000500060000200040006000800010000120001400016000()/02000400060008000100001200040006000800010000120001400016000PVC()/PVC()/01000200030004000500060007000400050006000700080009000100001100012000130002018-08 2019-08 2020-08 2021-08 2022-08-/0200040006000800010000120001400016000400060008000100001200014000160001800020000220002018-08 2019-08 2020-08 2021-08 2022-08-/010002000300040005000600070008000900010000MTBE/29 7 PC PMMA SAP TPU HDI 2023 2 10 2023 Q1 66.10 2022 Q4 2.17 38.30%2022 Q4 3.65 63 38.30%wind 2010 Q1 64 HDI 65 IPDI wind wind 0204060801001202010Q12010Q32011Q12011Q32012Q12012Q32013Q12013Q32014Q12014Q32015Q12015Q32016Q12016Q32017Q12017Q32018Q12018Q32019Q12019Q32020Q12020Q32021Q12021Q32022Q12022Q32023Q1 400005000060000700008000090000100000110000120000HDI/5000060000700008000090000100000110000120000130000IPDI/30 66 PC-0.9*A 67 SAP wind 68 MMA 69 PMMA wind wind 70 TPU 71 wind 05000100001500020000250000500010000150002000025000300003500040000PC-0.9*A PC/8000900010000110001200013000140001500016000SAP/50001000015000200002500030000MMA/100001400018000220002600030000PMMA/1500019000230002700031000TPU/051015202530354045/31 8 2022-2024 162.39 235.52 320.31 PE 19.7 13.6 10.0 9 MDI TDI MDI TDI PC PC TDI MDI TDI PC PVC 32 Table_Forcast 600309 101.61 2023/02/17 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E ROE 36%19%22%23%EPS 7.85 5.17 7.50 10.20 26%16%20%21%BVPS 21.82 26.99 34.49 44.69 3%3%2%2%17%10%13%14%P/E 12.87 19.65 13.55 9.96 P/B 4.63 3.76 2.95 2.27 98%14%6%28%P/S 2.18 1.93 1.81 1.42 145%-34%45%36%2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 0.76 0.73 0.72 0.77 145538 165565 176312 224840 16.83 13.76 15.14 14.42 107317 139514 141595 178505 7.96 7.28 7.47 7.64 880 828 882 1124 1052 1027 917 1124 62%61%54%50%1892 1656 1737 2248 0.74 0.77 0.82 0.98 1479 1610 1578 1565 0.54 0.56 0.60 0.73/-3168 2815 2997 3822 29425 19238 27644 37677 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E-274 5 10 10 34216 40729 43193 61372 29151 19243 27654 37687 8646 12030 11643 15592 4112 2502 3374 4598 18282 22741 23601 29425 25039 16742 24280 33089 11147 14546 14281 18340 391 502 728 1059 72291 90047 92719 124730 24649 16239 23552 32031 65233 75599 83340 90943 29352 31995 36364 39869 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 19504 22350 25742 28861 27922 34286 30544 46175 3930 5536 7647 9505 24649 16239 23552 32031 190310 225527 245811 293908 391 502 728 1059 53873 53873 53873 53873 8161 8562 8569 10017 20390 35353 31391 42404-7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-7323 7233-4204 1175 23739 27252 27218 31213-28758-25992-26299-26215 98002 116478 112482 127490-26845-24707-24582-24646 15644 15644 15644 15644-1996-1756-2261-2008 4968 4968
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