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2019 2 3 1 2 3 442019.07 iResearch I 2010 2015 1 2 3:2015 7 2015 12 2017 5 52019.07 iResearch I 2019.07 iResearch I4.3 8.8 18.8 36.4 47.7 76.3 103.8 135.5 206.0 320.9 425.7 106.0%113.2%93.4%31.1%59.8%36.1%30.5%52.0%55.8%32.7%2013 2015 2017 2019e 2021e 2023e2013-2023%2018 76.3 2018 76.3 2015 113.2%31.3%34.2%48.9%51.8%63.3%59.2%56.5%58.4%66.5%74.2%77.0%68.7%65.8%51.1%38.7%27.9%22.8%21.4%19.2%14.7%10.9%9.2%9.4%8.8%18.0%22.1%22.4%18.8%14.9%13.8%0%20%40%60%80%100%2013 2015 2017 2019e 2021e 2023e2013-2023 62019.07 iResearch I 70%25%5%65%20%10%5%72019.07 iResearch I VIP 1.5 10-30 2/VIP 15-18/8-10/19/5-6 VIP 20-30/19/0.1-0.2/15-18 VIP 15-18/81234 92019.07 iResearch I 2019.07 iResearch I 2017 7 2018 5.3%Spotify2018 46.4%/6.1 6.3 6.5 6.8 7.1 7.4 7.5 7.7 7.8 7.9 8.0 3.1%3.5%3.7%5.0%3.5%2.4%2.0%1.8%1.2%1.0%2013 2015 2017 2019e 2021e 2023e2013-2023%242.0493.61138.22017.42747.13876.54771.96182.90.4%0.8%1.7%3.0%3.9%5.3%6.3%8.0%2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e2013-2020%102019.07 iResearch I 2019.07 iResearch I 90%70%50%15%6.5 2 5%50%15%70%90%/2018 1.5 6.5 2.0 10.0 6.6/2018 ARPPU%112019.07 iResearch I Spotify QQ QQ QQ 2.5 Spotify 10 QQ QQ($2.5/month)Spotify($10/month)On-demand Download DTS Audio Add-Welfare Fan-meeting QQ Spotify 122019.07 iResearch I QQ Spotify Melon QQ 80%MV Spotify Melon 30 On-demand MV Shuffle Play QQ Skip On-demand Spotify 30 MelonQQ Spotify Melon 132019.07 iResearch I9.2%20.7%38.7%16.4%8.0%5.6%1.4%2021-25 26-30 31-35 36-40 41-50 5132.3%47.4%20.3%53.1%68.1%32.3%47.4%20.3%8867 31.0%5001-8000 28.7 26-30 38.7%2019 N=1502 iClick 2019 5.3%2.8%12.1%31.0%19.9%16.9%6.1%6.0%2000 2001-3500 3501-5000 5001-8000 8001-10000 10001-15000 15001-20000 20000 53.1%46.9%2.5%5.4%18.1%68.1%6.0%142019.07 iResearch I TGI 100 TGI TGI 131.1 2019 N=1502 iClick TGI=/*100 106.2 117.7 130.1 116.02000 110.4 20000129.4 5000 127.3131.1/139.5/123.920136.8TGI=100TGI=1002019 TGI 152019.07 iResearch I 2019.07 iResearch I/R&B TGI 100/TGI 118.9 TGI 106 QQ QQ 2019 N=1502 iClick TGI=/*100 2019 N=1502 iClick TGI=/*100 106.9 106.7 102.3 97.3 86.82019 TGI/R&B 2019 TGI102.4104.6 104.6112.7116.8118.9162019.07 iResearch I 20162016 16.3 2019 31.7 1 2016 N=1000 iClick 2 2019 N=1502 iClick 2016 2019 2016￥16.32019￥31.72016D11.2019B02.58.7%61.7%24.5%27.6%31.9%35.0%47.0%49.0%2016C06.2019A05.2016 2019 2016 2019172019.07 iResearch I 2019.07 iResearch I19.4%20.8%23.8%24.7%28.9%29.0%30.1%36.1%37.8%38.8%45.4%/VIP/VIP/VIP 2019 45.4%37.8%VIP 29.2%2019 N=1502 iClick 2019 N=1502 iClick 43.8%43.0%38.4%35.0%29.2%2019 182019.07 iResearch I 32.4%29.3%28.6%/2019 N=1502 iClick 2019 67.1%32.4%29.3%28.6%191234 202019.07 iResearch I K-POP/Spotify/Pandora/Deezer/SoundCloud Melon/Genie QQ/2018 GDP$61687.4 1$40063.2 2$30919.1 6$9377.0 7 ASCAP BMI SESAC JASRAC KOMCA GDP World Bank RIAA P ES TPolitics Economy Society Technology 212019.07 iResearch I Spotify Spotify ad-streaming premium streaming 2018 Spotify 47.17 89.7%46.4%Spotify(ARPPU)Spotify 2018 32%Spotify$10/$15/$5/1 5/Spotify 222019.07 iResearch I Melon Melon 50%Melon Melon Ticket Melon Melon Music Award Melon Melon Ticket Melon Music AwardsMelon 232019.07 iResearch I 1.2.2015 A B A B A,B B A A,BAB242019.07 iResearch I 2019.07 iResearch I 1 IFPI 2 IFPI 18948.92565436556.847268.159951.673723.157.9%35.4%42.5%29.3%26.8%23.0%2015 2016 2017 2018e 2019e 2020e2015-2020%46.0%89.1%251234 262019.07 iResearch I 2018 N=1502 GDP WorldBank ARPPU ARPPU 8%2018 51.5%46.3%43.1%42.7%2018/=0.225/0.515=43.7%=0.141/0.431=32.7%=0.075/0.427=17.6%17.6%=(0.463)*17.6%=8.15%130 2018 ARPPU/GDP=$120/$61687=0.2%=$78/$30919=0.25%=$24/$4214=0.57%0.2%ARPPU=GDP(64600)*0.2%=129.2 2018 ARPPU 116.6 2018 5.3%2018 272019.07 iResearch I 2014 QQ Amazon Prime Bundle Deal logo Amazon Amazon Prime$13/282019.07 iResearch I TGI Spotify ARPPU 19.4%20.8%23.8%24.7%28.9%29.0%30.1%36.1%37.8%38.8%45.4%/VIP/VIP/VIP 2019 292019.07 iResearch I/Live House OST C QQ K K QQ QQ K KTV K/302019.07 iResearch I 2019.07 iResearch I Netflix/36.1%QQ 9.0 tab Netflix Statista 2.44.98.912.415.021.922.926.327.428.32013 2015 2017 2018 2019e2013-2019 Netflix ARPU ARPU(QQ 9.0 312019.07 iResearch I 2019 QQ 200 35%QQ QQ 2018 QQ QQ LiveHouse VIP QQ 32 Keep Learning 400-026-2099 33
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