资源描述
|2024 05 11 1 2 24Q2 Q2 Capex 23Q3 Q2 2023 CR9 61.0%+3.3pct+Q2 23Q4+24.4%+16.9%24Q1+25.5%+20.0%+17.0%2023+10.0%24Q1-20.0%2019-24Q1 2700 2000+&23Q4/+5.4%+11.3%+53.0%24Q1+2.3%+32.3%+5.7%&2023 24Q1 S0680523040001 1 2024-04-07 2 2024-03-25 3 2024-03-25-32%-16%0%16%2023-05 2023-08 2023-12 2024-05 300 2024 05 11 P.2&2024Q2/23Q4&24Q1 2023&1 24Q1 2 3C&3 昇 EPS P E 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 003006.SZ 0.55 0.71 0.91 1.20 41.09 31.83 24.84 18.83 002078.SZ 1.10 1.37 1.62 1.75 14.21 11.41 9.65 8.93 603195.SH 4.34 4.98 5.75 6.64 28.42 24.77 21.45 18.58 603816.SH 2.44 2.70 2.99 3.33 14.34 12.96 11.71 10.51 603733.SH 0.94 1.52 2.04 2.56 20.40 12.62 9.40 7.49 603661.SH 1.89 3.93 4.68 5.53 25.16 12.10 10.16 8.60 603600.SH 0.89 1.00 1.24 1.48 13.57 12.08 9.74 8.16 301061.SZ 3.18 3.85 4.71 5.53 22.43 18.53 15.15 12.90 Wind 1ZAZyRrMmPqRqOsRtOrOmNbRcM6MsQmMmOnRkPoOtOlOmNtPaQqQwPuOsQrMNZoMpM 2024 05 11 P.3 1.6 2.8 3.9 3.1.9 3.2.13 4.17 4.1.17 4.2.22 5&.24 6.31 7.41 8.43 9.44 1 VS.6 2.6 3.6 4.7 5.7 6.7 7.8 8.8 9.8 10.8 11.9 12%.10 13%.10 14/.11 15.12 16 Capex.12 17.13 18&.14 19%.14 20.15 21&.15 22.16 23.16 24.16 25%.17 26%.18 27.19 28%.19 2024 05 11 P.4 29-.20 30.21 31.21 32%.21 33%.22 34.22 35.22 36%.23 37%.23 38%.23 39 PMI.24 40 GDP.24 41.24 42.25 43.25 44.25 45.25 46&.26 47&.26 48&.26 49&.27 50&.28 51.29 52 CCFI.29 53/.29 54&.30 55%.31 56%.31 57%.31 58%.31 59%.32 60%.33 61.34 62.34 63.35 64 2024 3 TOP10.35 65.35 66.35 67.36 68.37 69.38 70.38 71.38 72 2024 3.39 73.39 74.39 ARpluRYtr9Y6jdl7v+3ANZKvZxvDHl7CnYBIQwX/6MN9YUOjIV0S3Cg/jXss+cYt 2024 05 11 P.5 75.40 76.40 77%.41 78&.42 79%.43 2024 05 11 P.6 1 2023 2023 SW-7.8%4.0%24Q1-6.0%10.5%2023-24Q1-6.3%/2023-24Q1-12.4%/-14.4%/-24.1%20%2024 4 30 19.2X 0.9%28.1X 12.9%/14.6X/17.7X/22.1X 1 VS 2 Wind Wind 3 Wind 2010 1 31-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%2023-012023-012023-022023-032023-032023-042023-052023-062023-062023-072023-082023-082023-092023-102023-102023-112023-122023-122024-012024-022024-032024-032024-04 300()-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%2023-012023-012023-022023-032023-032023-042023-052023-062023-062023-072023-082023-082023-092023-102023-102023-112023-122023-122024-012024-022024-032024-032024-04SW SW SW SW 0204060801001201402010-012010-052010-092011-012011-052011-092012-012012-052012-092013-012013-052013-092014-012014-052014-092015-012015-052015-092016-012016-052016-092017-012017-052017-092018-012018-052018-092019-012019-052019-092020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-052023-092024-01SW SW SW SW SW 2024 05 11 P.7 23Q4/24Q1 4.7%/3.4%+1.0pct/-1.4pct 24Q1/3.2%/4.2%/1.4%/3.9%-0.8/-2.8/-0.5/-0.4pct 24Q1 1/49.5/0.5/0.5/0.4+14.9%/-21.8%/+16.7%/2/36.0/18.8/13.5/7.3+133.4%/+40.4%/-26.6%/+1.0%3/13.8/1.1-6.2%/+103.9%4/31.6/1.7+106.7%/-52.4%4 5 Wind Wind 6 Wind 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%2016Q12016Q32017Q12017Q32018Q12018Q32019Q12019Q32020Q12020Q32021Q12021Q32022Q12022Q32023Q12023Q32024Q1SW SW 0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%2016Q12016Q32017Q12017Q32018Q12018Q32019Q12019Q32020Q12020Q32021Q12021Q32022Q12022Q32023Q12023Q32024Q1SW SW SW SW 0102030405060 24Q1 23Q4 2024 05 11 P.8 7 8 Wind Wind 9 10 Wind Wind 2 2023 5%2023-2025 60%2023 71.41%0102030405060 24Q1 23Q40510152025303540 24Q1 23Q40246810121416 24Q1 23Q405101520253035 24Q1 23Q4 2024 05 11 P.9 11 Wind 2023 Wind 2024 5 9 3 3.1 2024 1-2 20+10.2%Kemi 2024H1 24 5 Arauco 820/+140/740/+265/23Q4 24Q1/6167/5425/-19.0%/-19.6%+7.2%/+15.7%6000/5306/-16.5%/-11.8%-2.7%/-2.2%Q2 1 23Q4 24Q1/6114/5977/-8.2%/+5.6%+10.0%/+12.2%5788/5792/-13.5%/+1.8%-5.3%/-3.1%Q1 23Q4 9.49+75.5%+7.2%24Q1 9.56+69.0%+0.7%23Q4-3.54 24Q1 0.81-7.6%2 23Q4 4897/-7.6%+11.8%24Q1 4762/-6.7%-2.8%24Q2 23Q4 2.75+171.4%+8.4%24Q1 1.01+120.2%-63.4%23 2023 2023 2023 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E603610.SH 46 171.6%7.9%3.4 2.1 2.1 23.0%22.2 15.9 13.6 11.9 15.53 6.40 3.1 7.3603208.SH 41 56.3%7.7%1.0 0.8 3.9 14.0%10.5 9.1 8.0 7.1 11.94 4.05 1.0-3.6002969.SZ 34 143.0%7.3%3.0 1.5 1.5-22.2-2.64-5.05-3.3 4.1300616.SZ 31 305.1%6.5%7.0 1.7 0.6-47.8 16.0 11.0-29.91 2.79 4.3-6.6002572.SZ 179 75.5%5.4%7.6 1.4 12.6 15.8%14.2 11.9 10.5 9.1 34.95 12.54 1.0-12.4002014.SZ 63 82.6%5.4%1.1 0.7 4.1 14.0%15.4 13.4 11.8 10.4 11.78 7.68 1.9 6.8605377.SH 78 63.9%4.7%3.7 3.4 5.7 14.2%13.8 12.4 10.7 9.3 22.94 19.20 3.4 7.1603801.SH 68 51.4%4.5%4.2 2.1 6.0 12.3%11.4 10.2 9.1 8.1 8.63 10.24 1.7-1.2001206.SZ 28 44.3%4.3%0.5 0.9 1.0 30.6%27.0 16.4 13.9 12.1 2.70 7.32 7.1 7.4002228.SZ 35 136.0%4.2%3.5 1.1 1.0-34.0 21.0 18.0-6.06-9.65-9.4 12.5603833.SH 408 55.1%4.1%21.0 2.3 30.4 9.4%13.4 12.7 11.4 10.3 125.75 25.80 0.8-15.11999.HK 211 51.1%4.1%13.7 2.3 16.8 15.7%12.6 10.4 9.1 8.1 31.68-1.87-0.1 19.1600210.SH 96 67.8%4.0%9.7 2.2 5.6 16.6%17.1 14.2 12.5 10.8 25.65-7.62-1.4 10.6603816.SH 294 56.3%3.9%22.2 3.3 20.1 10.9%14.7 13.2 12.0 10.8 35.83 16.10 0.8-8.6300622.SZ 28 81.7%3.7%0.2 0.1 1.3 17.9%22.0 18.7 15.5 13.4 1.94 0.29 0.2 2.5605009.SH 70 67.8%3.8%2.8 2.3 4.4 16.7%15.9 13.3 11.4 10.0 22.96 19.29 4.4-4.5002831.SZ 255 60.3%3.5%11.7 1.4 14.4 15.6%17.7 15.1 13.1 11.5 34.96-12.34-0.9 43.8603600.SH 40 44.5%3.3%3.3 3.0 3.0 18.4%13.6 12.2 9.8 8.2 6.64 3.57 1.2 3.2001323.SZ 142 49.0%2.8%4.0 1.6 8.0 12.3%17.7 15.8 14.0 12.5 28.76 31.65 3.9-4.0603408.SH 75 46.1%2.6%3.1 1.4 4.2 17.0%17.6 15.1 12.7 11.0 4.78 5.51 1.3 12.7603180.SH 34 31.4%2.7%5.7 3.5 2.9 15.7%11.8 10.0 8.7 7.6 7.88 6.93 2.4 5.3603195.SH 1117 71.4%2.5%6.6 2.3 38.7 15.2%28.9 24.9 21.6 18.9 47.44 134.71 3.5 75.3003006.SZ 99 99.1%2.4%0.8 1.5 2.4 29.3%41.5 32.3 25.3 19.2 3.56 7.75 3.3 3.8603899.SH 348 48.4%2.1%2.1 0.4 15.3 17.7%22.8 19.3 16.5 14.0 52.39 60.01 3.9 9.2002078.SZ 440 27.2%1.9%47.7 2.2 30.9 16.5%14.3 11.5 9.7 9.0 24.95-144.38-4.7 37.0 4%2%+/2323-26 CAGRPE/2024 05 11 P.10 23Q4 1575/-19.9%+3.2%24Q1 1514-9.8%-3.9%23H2 23Q4 24Q1/3843/2927/-14.2%/-11.9%+2.5%/+5.9%3833/2855/-10.4%/-8.7%-0.3%-2.5%Q1 Q2 23Q4 2.73+111.8%+76.2%24Q1 0.39+111.4%-85.7%12%Wind 13%Wind 2019 2020 2021 2022 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4 2023 24Q1 2019 2020 2021 2022 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4 2023 24Q1 117356.56 121119.69 150491.18 162623.10 35124.50 36291.47 37957.84 38561.56 147935.37 36086.42 119292.73 125703.31 154954.92 167091.53 35176.91 36345.01 38010.03 38608.37 152615.42 36133.87YOY 0.27%3.21%24.25%8.06%-9.91%-12.65%-9.10%-4.39%-9.03%2.74%1.20%5.37%23.27%7.83%-9.90%-12.62%-9.09%-4.38%-8.66%2.72%22762.70 21588.65 31996.64 39766.93 9805.03 9536.98 9860.52 10341.81 39544.34 10184.93 23915.86 22878.56 32368.28 40294.63 10458.82 10133.36 10678.80 10765.91 40125.32 23147.22YOY()4.6%-5.2%48.2%24.3%1.4%-6.4%0.8%2.1%-0.6%3.9%5.8%-4.3%41.5%24.5%8.2%-6.1%0.9%1.0%-0.4%121.3%9739.80 13982.10 16276.12 18361.78 4161.53 4495.61 5020.59 5015.32 18693.06 4398.34 10030.72 14332.85 16790.94 18905.70 4767.61 5238.91 5666.94 4946.85 19241.57 9061.45YOY()16.8%43.6%16.4%12.8%0.5%-4.9%0.9%11.0%1.8%5.7%17.6%42.9%17.2%12.6%15.2%-1.1%1.6%-2.2%1.8%90.1%23240.95 24969.15 33032.81 34014.12 6351.50 7396.05 7564.43 8021.36 29333.34 6669.12 23331.48 25054.77 33102.88 34100.95 6476.37 7484.84 7684.57 6722.31 29386.53 24521.70YOY()-4.6%7.4%32.3%3.0%-20.2%-15.1%-13.9%-6.3%-13.8%5.0%-4.6%7.4%32.1%3.0%-18.7%-15.2%-14.3%-22.3%-13.8%278.6%30395.43 30736.52 33019.81 32004.37 6155.92 6409.05 7156.89 6886.71 26608.57 6761.78 30395.43 31787.67 34402.10 33310.40 7733.60 8038.11 8571.81 8205.46 28052.25 30360.57YOY()5.3%1.1%7.4%-3.1%-27.7%-21.5%-17.5%3.6%-16.9%9.8%5.3%4.6%8.2%-3.2%-9.2%-15.3%-14.1%3.2%-15.8%292.6%7105.94 7115.86 7838.05 9781.49 2522.47 2173.94 1923.53 2020.79 8640.73 1959.75 7509.19 7495.56 8262.43 10172.93 2903.64 2482.76 2199.37 2276.93 8957.91 7629.86YOY()1.3%0.1%10.1%24.8%51.1%-1.1%-24.8%-39.8%-11.7%-22.3%2.9%-0.2%10.2%23.1%73.9%-6.4%-31.2%-39.3%-11.9%162.8%6264.42 7880.43 10349.21 1928.04(279.04)651.47 1303.46 730.68 2406.56 1480.90 5079.86 7081.14 9512.98 1015.67(481.87)302.89 805.02 416.96 1043.01 998.35YOY-36.02%25.80%31.33%-81.37%-116.62%-59.71%33.56%-24.82%-40.16%39.40%34.34%-89.32%-130.31%-79.85%-3.48%-114.32%2.69%-307.18%2178.12 1953.11 2956.84 2808.77 565.60 685.72 885.26 949.10 3085.69 956.10 2098.73 1923.23 2931.71 2771.07 553.00 665.14 867.16 941.29 3026.59 952.37YOY()-2.7%-10.3%51.4%-5.0%-16.2%-30.3%45.5%75.5%9.9%69.0%-5.1%-8.4%52.4%-5.5%-16.0%-32.1%45.4%75.6%9.2%72.2%133.77 834.07 1705.68 228.07-497.05 150.75 253.38 274.75 181.83 100.53 175.78 821.97 1712.77 221.03-547.87 94.76 241.71 332.04 120.65 94.75YOY()-47.7%523.5%104.5%-86.6%-375.2%-40.1%40.6%171.4%-20.3%120.2%-32.4%367.6%108.4%-87.1%-412.7%-63.6%38.2%185.3%-45.4%117.3%1362.18 1381.10 1515.67-2256.45-341.27 70.18 154.69 272.63 156.23 39.06 1258.68 1430.46 1200.10-2406.64-377.05-59.00 77.46 60.41-298.18-15.48YOY()-57.5%1.4%9.7%-248.9%-270.7%197.6%311.4%111.8%106.9%111.4%-53.0%13.6%-16.1%-300.5%-318.2%45.7%158.1%102.6%87.6%95.9%1656.57 1712.03 2065.51 189.29-275.41-412.67-80.21-513.00-1281.29 58.20 702.33 1119.10 1743.88-361.46-327.89-483.95-439.77-690.51-1942.12-226.48YOY()-34.0%3.3%20.6%-90.8%-341.8%-455.1%-868.7%-900.3%-776.9%121.1%-64.1%59.3%55.8%-120.7%-429.1%-756.0%-2306.7%-33.7%-437.3%30.9%313.24 414.31 298.08 615.56 87.49 15.42 13.17-354.03-237.95 80.84 252.48 376.88 210.03 547.77 62.83-7.51 9.89-55.99 9.22-40.71YOY()-14.4%32.3%-28.1%106.5%-29.6%-91.2%-92.4%-350.0%-138.7%-7.6%-13.5%49.3%-44.3%160.8%-44.4%-104.5%-93.7%-150.0%-98.3%-164.8%&2019 2020 2021 2022 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4 2023 24Q1 20.47%18.50%17.38%11.63%8.98%9.99%10.29%10.83%10.83%12.98%YOY-1.79%-1.97%-1.13%-5.75%-4.39%-3.60%-2.51%-0.80%-0.80%4.00%22.54%19.44%17.37%15.17%13.51%16.13%16.74%17.12%15.89%17.99%YOY()-0.91%-3.11%-2.07%-2.21%-0.46%-2.75%2.24%3.90%0.72%4.48%14.58%17.06%22.93%11.65%-4.60%12.58%15.81%17.09%10.83%13.30%YOY()-1.46%2.48%5.87%-11.28%-19.52%-6.24%1.02%19.41%-0.82%17.90%19.06%16.74%12.19%7.23%7.72%9.49%10.15%11.66%9.87%9.88%YOY()-3.99%-2.33%-4.55%-4.96%-2.98%1.61%3.01%8.21%2.64%2.16%28.36%23.07%23.61%14.47%10.52%6.57%4.38%11.34%8.13%12.37%YOY()-2.91%-5.29%0.54%-9.15%-5.67%-8.67%-7.97%-2.75%-6.34%1.86%18.91%18.97%15.11%15.41%11.81%8.64%5.02%7.64%8.53%7.05%YOY()-1.88%0.06%-3.86%0.30%-6.89%-8.56%-10.45%-4.91%-6.88%-4.76%5.34%6.51%6.88%1.19%-0.79%1.80%3.43%1.89%1.63%4.10%YOY-3.03%1.17%0.37%-5.69%-5.10%-2.10%1.10%7.71%0.44%4.90%9.57%9.05%9.24%7.06%5.77%7.19%8.98%9.18%7.80%9.39%YOY()-0.71%-0.52%0.19%-2.18%-1.21%-2.47%2.76%3.84%0.74%3.62%1.37%5.97%10.48%1.24%-11.94%3.35%5.05%5.48%0.97%2.29%YOY()-1.70%4.59%4.51%-9.24%-16.31%-1.97%1.43%13.99%-0.27%14.23%5.86%5.53%4.59%-6.63%-5.37%0.95%2.04%3.40%0.53%0.59%YOY()-7.29%-0.33%-0.94%-11.22%-7.88%1.77%2.88%30.38%7.17%5.96%5.45%5.57%6.26%0.59%-4.47%-6.44%-1.12%-7.45%-4.82%0.86%YOY()-3.24%0.12%0.69%-5.66%-5.81%-7.86%-1.24%-6.68%-5.41%5.33%4.41%5.82%3.80%6.29%3.47%0.71%0.68%-17.52%-2.75%4.13%YOY()-0.81%1.41%-2.02%2.49%-3.97%-7.27%-6.13%-21.74%-9.05%0.66%2024 05 11 P.11 14/Wind 2022Q1 6754 5737 5880 5483 6116 2317 3857 4884 4849 0.14%6.44%-8.68%-15.09%-27.39%0.67%1.60%4.16%-10.93%22.31%23.96%6.67%2.28%1.60%-4.72%-9.26%-5.43%-4.94%2022Q2 7367 6379 6156 5593 6373 2345 3725 4844 4589 5.78%21.39%-7.49%-18.31%-30.02%5.02%1.31%4.62%-11.25%9.08%11.20%4.69%2.00%4.21%1.18%-3.43%-0.81%-5.36%2022Q3 7389 6715 6253 5490 5632 2113 3458 4699 4107 16.03%40.57%14.62%0.86%-8.70%-12.07%-11.02%-2.11%-15.23%0.30%5.26%1.58%-1.83%-11.63%-9.89%-7.16%-3.00%-10.51%2022Q4 7613 6745 6662 5659 5301 1966 3322 4480 4078 37.86%45.74%20.87%5.56%-11.94%-19.18%-21.86%-13.26%-20.04%3.02%0.44%6.54%3.08%-5.88%-6.97%-3.95%-4.67%-0.69%2023Q1 7189 6015 6694 5689 5106 1678 3126 4277 4079 6.44%4.86%13.84%3.77%-16.51%-27.60%-18.96%-12.42%-15.88%-5.57%-10.81%0.47%0.54%-3.67%-14.64%-5.89%-4.51%0.02%2023Q2 5857 4317 6060 5430 4487 1584 2848 3945 3702-20.49%-32.33%-1.55%-2.91%-29.60%-32.44%-23.55%-18.55%-19.32%-18.52%-28.24%-9.46%-4.56%-12.13%-5.59%-8.90%-7.76%-9.23%2023Q3 5753 4687 5560 5326 4380 1526 2763 3748 3523-22.15%-30.20%-11.09%-2.99%-22.22%-27.76%-20.09%-20.23%-14.21%-1.79%8.58%-8.26%-1.92%-2.37%-3.65%-2.97%-5.00%-4.85%2023Q4 6167 5425 6114 5977 4897 1575 2927 3843 3865-18.99%-19.57%-8.23%5.63%-7.61%-19.85%-11.90%-14.20%-5.24%7.20%15.74%9.97%12.23%11.80%3.22%5.91%2.54%9.70%2024Q1 6000 5306 5788 5792 4762 1514 2855 3833 3856-16.53%-11.79%-13.53%1.81%-6.74%-9.78%-8.68%-10.39%-5.46%-2.70%-2.19%-5.33%-3.10%-2.77%-3.92%-2.45%-0.27%-0.22%2024 05 11 P.12 15 Wind Capex 2023 47.74/5.41/3.14/20.15 34%/77%/91%/57%2023 0.72/0.26/0.07/0.64 0.75/8.08/0.19/17.95 2022-2023 Capex 16 Capex Wind 7 1-6 30 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4 24Q1 47.79 44.23 37.40 45.74 43.41 24.05 26.02 0.53 0.77 14.10 13.06 57.47 57.40 54.98 48.80 50.19 10.89 7.50 1.36 1.61 4.14 1.44 34.04 29.54 22.41 24.96 32.93 16.73 16.94 0.81 0.85 12.17 7.29 30.27 30.08 28.40 28.23 30.01 16.96 17.90 0.14 0.21 13.09 10.36 71.18 67.78 55.37 49.58 50.34 18.94 19.77 1.33 1.02 21.63 14.13资本性开支（亿元）2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A太阳纸业 30.35 40.91 63.09 72.49 47.12 47.74YoY-23.73%34.80%54.19%14.91%-34.99%1.31%博汇纸业 23.65 16.12 3.37 3.08 15.01 5.41YoY 96.72%-31.86%-79.09%-8.49%386.72%-63.95%晨鸣纸业 36.09 11.12 2.54 6.33 8.85 3.14YoY 60.18%-69.18%-77.14%148.86%39.97%-64.49%山鹰国际 16.80 30.73 34.76 46.36 37.80 20.15YoY 111.54%82.92%13.09%33.37%-18.46%-46.70%资本性开支/经营性现金流 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A太阳纸业 0.68 0.87 0.95 1.47 1.23 0.72较上年同期增减-0.38 0.20 0.08 0.52-0.24-0.51博汇纸业 2.20 1.42 0.09 0.08 8.34 0.26较上年同期增减 1.27-0.79-1.32-0.01 8.25-8.08晨鸣纸业 0.26 0.09 0.02 0.07 0.26 0.07较上年同期增减-94.54-0.17-0.07 0.05 0.18-0.19山鹰国际 0.52 2.30 2.97 2.35 18.59 0.64较上年同期增减 0.23 1.79 0.67-0.62 16.23-17.95资产负债率 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A太阳纸业 57.2%54.5%54.7%56.0%51.7%48.3%较上年同期增减-1.2%-2.7%0.2%1.3%-4.2%-3.5%博汇纸业 72.2%72.8%68.7%63.5%71.4%69.9%较上年同期增减 9.4%0.6%-4.1%-5.2%7.9%-1.5%晨鸣纸业 75.4%73.1%71.8%72.8%71.9%73.5%较上年同期增减 4.1%-2.3%-1.3%1.0%-0.9%1.6%山鹰国际 62.3%65.0%62.1%64.8%73.1%71.3%较上年同期增减 1.1%2.7%-2.9%2.7%8.3%-1.8%玖龙纸业 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024H1资本性开支（亿元）63.87 58.15 47.94 60.60 126.21 176.98 66.03YoY 74.1%-9.0%-17.6%26.4%108.3%40.2%-38.7%资本开支/经营性现金流 0.76 0.67 0.54 2.41 4.16 2.56-2.63较上年同期增减-0.28-0.09-0.22 1.87 1.76-1.61-6.59资产负债率 53.4%53.1%48.6%49.7%55.6%62.6%64.9%较上年同期增减-1.1%-0.3%-4.5%1.1%6.0%7.0%5.2%资本性开支（亿元）2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A太阳纸业 30.35 40.91 63.09 72.49 47.12 47.74YoY-23.73%34.80%54.19%14.91%-34.99%1.31%博汇纸业 23.65 16.12 3.37 3.08 15.01 5.41YoY 96.72%-31.86%-79.09%-8.49%386.72%-63.95%晨鸣纸业 36.09 11.12 2.54 6.33 8.85 3.14YoY 60.18%-69.18%-77.14%148.86%39.97%-64.49%山鹰国际 16.80 30.73 34.76 46.36 37.80 20.15YoY 111.54%82.92%13.09%33.37%-18.46%-46.70%资本性开支/经营性现金流 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A太阳纸业 0.68 0.87 0.95 1.47 1.23 0.72较上年同期增减-0.38 0.20 0.08 0.52-0.24-0.51博汇纸业 2.20 1.42 0.09 0.08 8.34 0.26较上年同期增减 1.27-0.79-1.32-0.01 8.25-8.08晨鸣纸业 0.26 0.09 0.02 0.07 0.26 0.07较上年同期增减-94.54-0.17-0.07 0.05 0.18-0.19山鹰国际 0.52 2.30 2.97 2.35 18.59 0.64较上年同期增减 0.23 1.79 0.67-0.62 16.23-17.95资产负债率 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A太阳纸业 57.2%54.5%54.7%56.0%51.7%48.3%较上年同期增减-1.2%-2.7%0.2%1.3%-4.2%-3.5%博汇纸业 72.2%72.8%68.7%63.5%71.4%69.9%较上年同期增减 9.4%0.6%-4.1%-5.2%7.9%-1.5%晨鸣纸业 75.4%73.1%71.8%72.8%71.9%73.5%较上年同期增减 4.1%-2.3%-1.3%1.0%-0.9%1.6%山鹰国际 62.3%65.0%62.1%64.8%73.1%71.3%较上年同期增减 1.1%2.7%-2.9%2.7%8.3%-1.8%2024 05 11 P.13
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