资源描述
*01*2024 5 11*1.2.1 2 3 1WUAZvMrMpMmNqOsRqNtMmN8ObPaQoMmMoMnRjMmMmRjMnMoNaQpPyQwMmQtNvPsPpO*CONTENTS 03 04 02 05062 08 07 09 10 11 01*01.3B7X4afaIlJpm7vr6uq67NJKvZxvDHl7CnYBIQwX/6MNdgLzOMt4vFOxpMAIHnskA*2024 2 23 2024 3 1 1.14 4 3 4 4 4 9 4 9 4 11 4 11 4 12 4 13 4 15 2024 2027 4 15 4 16 4 16 4 18()*1 2 3 1.2-505101520252013-022013-102014-062015-022015-102016-062017-022017-102018-062019-022019-102020-062021-022021-102022-062023-022023-10:%5*1.2 23 19.79%1&2 3 43%70%30%37.84%1&2 3 63%70%30%13.35%1&2 3 10%70%30%40%30 3 9%18%66.3%1&2 5 3 32%317%53%528%2023 6.5%20 17.7%16-20 33.4%11-15 25 24-35 CAGR=7.6%dwt 13129 30%3 30%10%12.98%2022 2026 50%51%10 29%10-1520%15-20 10-20+162%2 10 30%6.4%2024 10 61.1%10 23.16%3 98%2023 23.16%3 85%8.09%3 32%19.32%3 38%6*02.7*40%2022 21.6%3.6%18%NO2 42.9%20102016 2.18 3.60%18%52.40%0.60%25.40%11.3%31.6%56.8%0.3%22 22 NO2*38.8 36.2 75.6 11.6 10.9 22.7 3.9 3.6 7.623 9.0 5.7 76.8 43%63%10%8818188611 93523 7409 300243273072 662998 26658 1467185537251 3968716 101707 10669756779 943372 7473 70%30%24-26 1)3.9 23 43%2)3.6 23 63%3)7.6 23 10%2.29 23 Washington DC:Office of Transportation and Air Quality United States Environmental Protection Agency.Calculation of age distributions in the Nonroad Model:growth and scrappage Washington DC:Office of Transportation and Air Quality United States Environmental Protection Agency.Calculation of age distributions in the Nonroad Model:growth and scrappage*2023 2.310 2024-2026 70.0/99.3/126.6 PE 21/15/12 wind 24 5 10 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 74,019 85,288 100,209 120,042-8.4 15.2 17.5 19.8 4,527 7,004 9,927 12,661 5.5 54.7 41.7 27.5 0.53 0.83 1.17 1.49PE 33 21 15 12PB 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.7*2023 16 2.311 2024-2026 65.0/81.8/106.5 PE 15/12/9 wind 24 5 10 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 92,848 101,532 119,516 143,205-1.0 9.4 17.7 19.8 5,326 6,497 8,180 10,649 23.5 22.0 25.9 30.2 0.45 0.55 0.69 0.90PE 18 15 12 9PB 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3*2023 2.312 2024-2026 43.2/62.1/80.9 PE 18/13/10 wind 24 5 10 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 47,075 56,045 65,998 77,889 13.1 19.1 17.8 18.0 3,506 4,318 6,205 8,091 52.0 23.1 43.7 30.4 0.40 0.50 0.71 0.93PE 22 18 13 10PB 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2*MMH 8 7%(AGV)2.313 2024-2026 20.8/25.0/29.9 PE 15/13/11 wind 24 5 10 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 16,272 18,675 21,440 25,543 12.9 14.8 14.8 19.1 1,720 2,077 2,499 2,989 74.2 20.8 20.3 19.6 1.84 2.22 2.67 3.19PE 18 15 13 11PB 3.7 3.1 2.7 2.3*30 600 5000 0.2-46 2006 10 2016 7 2.314 2024-2026 16.4/18.5/22.3 PE 13/12/10 wind 24 5 10 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 17,471 20,067 23,052 26,486 10.8 14.9 14.9 14.9 1,278 1,639 1,846 2,231 40.9 28.2 12.6 20.9 1.63 2.09 2.36 2.85PE 17 13 12 10PB 2.8 2.4 2.1 1.8*2022 17 KHL YellowTable2022 2023 67%41%20 3 2.1 50%2.6 2.315*03.16*2000-2021 14342 3598921721 77572 3516 13916 10826 7805 2006-2022 56.67 99.7 3.1 wind 17 2000-2021 2000-2022/02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,0002000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020铁路内燃机车保有量 铁路电力机车保有量0200000400000600000800000100000012000001400000010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000200020022004200620082010201220142016201820202022铁路客车保有量 铁路货车保有量（右轴）*20-25 2024-2027 33.3/23.6/25.9/64.1 73/97.8/75/56.7 66.3/69.8/88/138.3 1 20 2 420/45/25003.2 e 18 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 794 562 617 1,526 420 420 420 420 33.3 23.6 25.9 64.1 16233 21723 16659 12595 45 45 45 45 73.0 97.8 75.0 56.7 265 279 352 553 2500 2500 2500 2500 66.3 69.8 88.0 138.3*2007 2014-2016 2007-2022 105 4194 CAGR 27.86%2007-2009 100 2010-2013 172-195 2014 2016 703 3.3 wind 19 105 176 285 480 652 825 1,003 1,411 1,883 2,586 2,935 3,256 3,665 3,918 4,153 4,194 05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,500中国动车组拥有量(组)105 71 109 195 172 173 178 408 472 703 349 321 409 253 235 41 0100200300400500600700800中国动车组新增量(组)*()500-1000 1500-2000 3000/6/12 2024-2026 187.7/215.7/220.1 3.3 20 RT CRH380D CRH380A CRH3 CRH5 5000km 48h 5000km 48h 5000km 48h 5000km 48h 10-120 km 6-720 d3 km 30d10-120 km 10-360 d6-120 km 120 km 3y 60 km 1.5y 120 km 3y 120 km 3y 240km 6y 120 km 3y 240 km 6y 240 km 6y 480 km 12y 240 km 6y 480 km 12y 480 km 12y 2024E 2025E 2026E 816 1,044 546 750 750 750 426 480 324 1750 1750 1750 173 178 408 3000 3000 3000 187.7 215.7 220.1*2023 12 5 2035 2024 3 13 2024 2 28 2027 3.4 21 2023 12 5 30 2027 2035 2024 2 28 2027*20%/30%/40%2024-2027 104/156/208 2023 4/7%/9%9%/13%/18%1 2023 2.24 0.78 2 20%30%40%3 9600KW 2000/3.4 22 7800 7800 7800 20%30%40%1560 2340 3120 520 780 1040 2000 2000 2000 104 156 208 4%7%9%20 20 20 1.04 1.56 2.08 9%13%18%*A+H 2015 6 8 46 17 1992 LKJ 3.523*04.24*2018 4286 2022 5611 7.0%2021 33.96%13.82%10.37%5.21%4.77%3.62%4.1 5,600 30%25 2021 4,286 4,698 4,983 5,310 5,611 01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0002018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A我国农机市场规模（亿元）拖拉机,34.0%水稻收割机,13.8%玉米收割机,10.4%小麦收割机,5.2%水稻插秧机,4.8%旋耕机,3.6%其他,28.3%我国农机销售额占比（%，2021）*2200 1 460 21%2-4 1187/550/48 53%/24%/2%73.6/44.2/14.7kw 14 17.0%/49.2%/30.1%/3.6%4.2 1&2 74%66.3%26%kw%2008-09-31 2008/10/1 2010-09-31 460 20.5%9,144 17.0%2010/10/1 2016/3/31 1,187 52.9%26,419 49.2%2016/4/1 2022/11/30 550 24.5%16,142 30.1%2022/12/1 48 2.2%1,946 3.6%050100150200250300*1&2 10%100%5 2023 32%317%3 1&2 2023 53%528%4.2 1&2 74%66.3%27 1&2 kw 5 3 kw 2023%kw 2023%10%3,556 711 32%1,185 53%20%7,113 1,423 63%2,371 106%30%10,669 2,134 95%3,556 158%40%14,225 2,845 127%4,742 211%50%17,781 3,556 158%5,927 264%60%21,338 4,268 190%7,113 317%70%24,894 4,979 222%8,298 370%80%28,450 5,690 254%9,483 423%90%32,006 6,401 285%10,669 475%100%35,563 7,113 317%11,854 528%*4.328-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,000营业收入（百万元）同比（%）(1,500)(1,000)(500)05001,0001,500归母净利润（百万元）*05.29*25 2023 0.78 dwt 2011 50%1996 0.35 dwt 31/33/34 26/28/29 30 1996-2011 2026 5.1 3035 157 78 0501001502003(M dwt)10 18 25 10 24 30 12 26 31 18 28 33 20 29 34 1996-2023 2021 08*25 2024 20 6.5%16-20 17.7%11-15 33.4%21-29 16.1%6.5%25 25 1996-2011 2021 10 3%3%2025/2030/2035 96.5/125.5/189.3 Mdwt 2023 1.23/1.60/2.41 24-35 CAGR=7.6%5.1 31 2024 1996-2036 19.8%19.3%22.0%20.4%22.4%20.7%26.6%21.9%41.6%28.0%25.8%33.4%12.8%23.3%23.8%17.7%3.4%8.7%1.8%6.5%0%20%40%60%80%100%3 0-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 20 050100150200250300199619982000200220042006200820102012201420162018202020222024E2026E2028E2030E2032E2034E2036E3(M dwt)3(M dwt)*FPSO 60%5.232*06.33*6.1 34*2003-2017 1291 11944 CAGR 17.22%13129 2024 4 3 4 16 6.2 35 2003-2017 wind 02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,0002003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017石油加工、炼焦及核燃料 加工业 设备工 器具购 置投资 完成额（亿元）电力生产设备工器具购置 投资完 成额（亿元）化学原料及化学制品制造 业设备 工器具 购置投 资额（亿元）*6.336 2020-2023%2024 wind PE 2024E 382023 EPC 62.24 14.82%4.34%2.94 13 70 2.64 27 38 LNG LNG 25.7%2.88 13 31-5.1%68 145 9.8%3.46 20 74 20MPa 36000rpm-196410,10400 m m MTO 19.2%4.1 18 73 32.7%3.05 24 14811.0%8.51 17 102 24.3%8.34 12 2024 5 10 wind*07.37*7.1 2024 3 20 2025 2030 38 38*7.1 1 2022 2022 4400 4000 2023-2026 4300 4200 4000 4000 2 2022 2022 572 13%2026 50%2023-2026 16.6%25.6%37%50%3 1.49 2023-2026 42.6 108.3 121.5 156 428.4 39 23-26 428.4 2020 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E()4407 4300 4200 4000 4000 12.98%16.60%25.60%37%50%572 714 1075 1480 2000 142 361 405 520 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 42.6 108.3 121.5 15639*08.40*23 2010/2011 8.1 2001-2008 GDP 2008 2009 2010/2011 2 2 2012-2021 2021 2022/2023 2009 15 2018-2023 2.60/2.71/2.63/2.77/3.01/2.6 41 2023 83.6 76.4 2001-2020 41*8.2 6.2%7.3%1.3%42%2017 42*1 8.3 1 43 1-30.00-20.00-10.000.0010.0020.0030.0040.00-400-2000200400600 43*+16.4%8.4 1 2010 2010 45.9 2009 3.3%2023 3011 3.3%100 2010 448 2011 26.2 100 5.8 2023 83.6 7%76.4 7.6%2 2022 2000 1.27 16%2 8%1 300 300 300+2023 1.1 8%83.6 6.7 76.4 8.8%10 13 44 2022 10 PPI 7.6%+8.8%=16.4%44*09.45*2027 2023 2023 45%2023 30%1600 15 700 6 1 1%4 2.7 2023 4.48 2021 9.1 0%20%40%0500100015002000250030002016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022零售量（万辆）置换新车量 置换率28%26%25%12%9%中国注塑机下游应用占比（%）通用型塑料汽车家电包装饮料其他 2023 2.7*6693 11100%30%2008%60%46*2020 2021 2008-2011 10 2019-2022 2019-2020 2021 2022 9.247 2011-2021*5-10 3-5 10 10/t-10 t-20 9.2 48*2023-2027 5%/4%/2%/2%/0%t t-10 t-15 2024-2027 209.8/240.1/264.3/281.6 6.4%/7.1%/7.6%/8.0%9.2 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 343.6 357.3 364.5 371.8 371.8-yoy(%)5.0%4.0%2.0%2.0%0.0%175.4 209.8 240.1 264.3 281.6 3217.1 3303.3 3391.6 3469.4 3528.2%5.5%6.4%7.1%7.6%8.0%49*9.3 40.96 11.30%4.77 17.66%1 7.8 19.05%35.44%34.95%+4.33pct 2 27.6 3.86%33.30%+2.83pct 3 1.8 31.96%4 8767.57 56.72%2023 3C 2023 3C 2023 HII LEAP 3C 50*10.51*2024 3 27 2021 N perc 10.1 CPIA 2021 52 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E GW 190 240 410 650 950 1068 50 170 240 300 118 GW 180 200 380 506 1050 1479N 5 13 38 80 567 989P 175 187 342 426 483 490 20 180 126 544 429 GW 190 245 360 546 880 1000 55 115 186 334 120 GW%GW 220 23.16%1 220 220 23.16%0.4 88 N 80 8.09%0.7 56 170 19.32%0.2 34*10.1 iFinD 2024 5 7 2021 53 2021 220 88 56 34 80%60%50%70%176 52.8 28 23.82023 180 62 87 63 98%85%32%38%2023 46 16 16 13 30%13%18%20%115%43%32%37%)444 97 243 205*+60%PERC TOPCon HJT XBC PECVD PE-poly MAD PE-poly TOPCon 10.254*11.55*11.1 56*THANKS 8 1 5F 200120 28 A 19 100005 6001 32 05 51802657 S0100521110006 lizhe_ S0100521110010 S0100522090007 S0100123040024 S0100123040015*12 A 300 500 15%5%15%-5%5%5%5%-5%5%5%*58
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